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fib_1618

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Posts: 4,492
Reply with quote  #1 
2015-10-22 16:00:37 fib1618: good day
2015-10-22 16:00:43 fib1618: how is everyone?
2015-10-22 16:00:47 thespookyone: Ditto
2015-10-22 16:00:56 thespookyone: Fine, and you?
2015-10-22 16:01:00 fib1618: anyone else having issues when signing into the chat?
2015-10-22 16:01:05 thespookyone: nope
2015-10-22 16:01:07 rite01: Not here
2015-10-22 16:01:16 fib1618: I know...it's just me
2015-10-22 16:01:23 fib1618: it's ALWAYS me
2015-10-22 16:01:26 fib1618: [smile]
2015-10-22 16:01:39 rite01: some days it does seem that way
2015-10-22 16:04:40 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2015-10-22 16:04:42 thespookyone: How about AMZN after earnings? [smile]
2015-10-22 16:05:00 fib1618: didn't hear
2015-10-22 16:05:04 fib1618: let me check after market
2015-10-22 16:05:31 fib1618: lol
2015-10-22 16:05:32 thespookyone: high of 628
2015-10-22 16:05:34 fib1618: up 9.61%
2015-10-22 16:05:47 thespookyone: 659 getting closer, LOL
2015-10-22 16:05:50 fib1618: now at 618
2015-10-22 16:05:56 thespookyone: 650
2015-10-22 16:06:05 fib1618: I guess the earnings were better than expected?
2015-10-22 16:06:37 fib1618: can you imagine how wealthy Jeff, the bookworm, is now?
2015-10-22 16:06:39 thespookyone: don't know, but the chart looked like an explosion waiting to happen, to me
2015-10-22 16:06:45 fib1618: [smile]
2015-10-22 16:07:07 rite01: Good call on Tuesday's inside range day.   And speaking of yesterday could Last 2 weeks NYSE prices & MCO and price action be considered a negative divergence?
2015-10-22 16:07:22 fib1618: someone bought heavily at the close
2015-10-22 16:07:38 fib1618: we will address that in a moment
2015-10-22 16:07:59 fib1618: OK...let me push this out of the way
2015-10-22 16:08:08 fib1618: and move this paperwork on my already 4" pile of stuff
2015-10-22 16:08:19 fib1618: and let's get SC up and get started
2015-10-22 16:08:27 rite01: sounds good
2015-10-22 16:08:51 fib1618: after moving lower on Wednesday toward the zero line
2015-10-22 16:09:01 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO bounced higher today
2015-10-22 16:09:14 fib1618: providing us with bearish divergence in the pattern compared with today's new recovery price highs
2015-10-22 16:09:25 fib1618: this divergence, however, is NOT triggered as yet
2015-10-22 16:09:53 fib1618: and won't be triggered until we see a low below yesterday's number
2015-10-22 16:10:26 fib1618: we also note that the 10% Trend bounced off the 5% Trend component of the CO MCO
2015-10-22 16:11:02 fib1618: so things continue to look buoyant at this time
2015-10-22 16:11:19 fib1618: price wise
2015-10-22 16:11:38 fib1618: the NYA did indeed move to higher highs today after the possible pullback forecast for Wednesday
2015-10-22 16:11:51 fib1618: so the path of least resistance remains with the buyers
2015-10-22 16:12:19 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2015-10-22 16:12:33 fib1618: and here we see a similar structure to that of the CO
2015-10-22 16:13:02 fib1618: though we bottomed out today with a +18 reading as opposed to a +6
2015-10-22 16:13:27 fib1618: this would indicate that the interest rate sensitive issues continue to enjoy support by money flow
2015-10-22 16:13:32 fib1618: and as long as this continues
2015-10-22 16:13:40 fib1618: equity prices should continue to move higher
2015-10-22 16:14:32 fib1618: with an NYA objective of around 10,750 still the forecast
2015-10-22 16:14:57 fib1618: the NYSE Components remain very strong currently
2015-10-22 16:15:15 fib1618: which does suggest that even though we do have divergence in the MCO
2015-10-22 16:15:26 fib1618: it's not likely to be an important one for now
2015-10-22 16:15:43 fib1618: and that we're basically moving forward off the momentum of the original thrust
2015-10-22 16:16:03 fib1618: with today providing a booster shot toward reaching higher orbit
2015-10-22 16:16:48 rite01: thanks
2015-10-22 16:16:58 fib1618: new recovery high close as well for the NASDAQ Composite
2015-10-22 16:17:02 fib1618: do you understand why?
2015-10-22 16:17:20 fib1618: Mike...that question is for you
2015-10-22 16:17:38 fib1618: I will continue
2015-10-22 16:17:54 fib1618: looking at the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2015-10-22 16:18:07 rite01: I'll take a stab
2015-10-22 16:18:20 fib1618: and we see we had a technical bounce off the zero line today
2015-10-22 16:18:25 rite01: we bounce off the zero line
2015-10-22 16:18:27 fib1618: but when looking at the components
2015-10-22 16:18:54 fib1618: we see that only the 10% Trend is back above zero
2015-10-22 16:18:57 rite01: they look weaker but the MCSUM is still doing fine
2015-10-22 16:19:02 fib1618: while the 5% has not made it as yet
2015-10-22 16:19:09 rite01: weaker components
2015-10-22 16:19:13 fib1618: well...again
2015-10-22 16:19:19 fib1618: it's a total package here
2015-10-22 16:19:32 fib1618: and since you zeroed in on the MCO divergence
2015-10-22 16:19:56 fib1618: it is the position of the Components that tell you how important this divergence point is in the current price sequence
2015-10-22 16:20:09 fib1618: if, for example, the Components were below zero
2015-10-22 16:20:13 fib1618: like they are in the NASDAQ
2015-10-22 16:20:13 rite01: right
2015-10-22 16:20:37 fib1618: then you would have to be on guard for a non confirmation...a rally failure
2015-10-22 16:20:45 fib1618: to where a lower MCO low would be possible and not probable
2015-10-22 16:20:49 fib1618: with the NYSE
2015-10-22 16:21:01 fib1618: the odds there are not as high
2015-10-22 16:21:30 fib1618: let me check the ratio...I know it was close to 4:1 earlier for the NYSE
2015-10-22 16:21:52 fib1618: came in at 2.87 at the close
2015-10-22 16:22:07 fib1618: so not a lot by thrust standards
2015-10-22 16:22:20 fib1618: but it's consistent to a pattern that is likely close to completion when we compare this ratio to that of earlier in the month
2015-10-22 16:22:45 fib1618: it's important to remember that the MCO measures the short term TREND of the NYAD line
2015-10-22 16:23:16 fib1618: it doesn't measure what money is doing on a day to day basis
2015-10-22 16:23:43 fib1618: this TREND is the difference between a 19 day and 39 day EMA
2015-10-22 16:24:07 fib1618: so if you want to make it simple for cursory reasons
2015-10-22 16:24:42 fib1618: this trendline in the MCO measures the average amount of positive or negative breadth plurality over a 29 day period
2015-10-22 16:25:11 fib1618: I do want to stress that this tool is NOT a 29 day EMA
2015-10-22 16:25:27 fib1618: I'm just trying to simplify the concept for this discussion
2015-10-22 16:25:43 fib1618: so...over a 29 day period
2015-10-22 16:27:59 fib1618: today's MCO reading is akin to the total trend of positive to negative plurality days over this same time period
2015-10-22 16:28:17 fib1618: in this case...the buyers have had more plus days than the sellers have had minus days
2015-10-22 16:28:40 fib1618: and with today's reading of +38
2015-10-22 16:28:54 fib1618: we'll call that over the last 29 days, 38% of the time we've had positive breadth plurality (again...I'm trying to convey an analogy here and is not representative of the indicator itself)
2015-10-22 16:29:28 fib1618: so what you see isn't always what you get
2015-10-22 16:29:41 fib1618: there is nothing "simple" about this tool
2015-10-22 16:29:56 fib1618: you just have to understand what it conveys
2015-10-22 16:30:26 fib1618: and then use good judgement on what would be the likely outcome of this same rhythm of money moving in and out of the market
2015-10-22 16:30:36 fib1618: going back to the car example
2015-10-22 16:31:12 fib1618: you moved out of the gate and accelerated to 95 MPH the second week of October
2015-10-22 16:31:22 fib1618: after that you took your foot off the gas pedal
2015-10-22 16:31:32 fib1618: but you continued to move forward regardless
2015-10-22 16:32:07 fib1618: with today providing another round of pushing down on the gas pedal
2015-10-22 16:32:39 fib1618: to help in maintaining your initial goal from your initial thrust of getting up to 95 mph
2015-10-22 16:32:54 fib1618: to wit
2015-10-22 16:33:00 fib1618: until the MCO goes negative
2015-10-22 16:33:28 fib1618: I wouldn't worry about any type of divergence as being important enough to change the direction of the automobile (prices)
2015-10-22 16:33:46 fib1618: we're just cruising
2015-10-22 16:33:49 fib1618: speaking of which
2015-10-22 16:33:56 rite01: so keeping an eye on the components at times like these would be a good idea on these types of divergences
2015-10-22 16:33:59 fib1618: if you folks want to see something really amazing
2015-10-22 16:34:05 fib1618: go to You Tube
2015-10-22 16:34:18 fib1618: and put in a search for "Tesla self driving car"
2015-10-22 16:34:23 fib1618: and check out the videos
2015-10-22 16:34:28 fib1618: I am very impressed
2015-10-22 16:34:54 fib1618: especially on the highway
2015-10-22 16:35:00 fib1618: the car actually changes lanes for you
2015-10-22 16:35:04 fib1618: with no hands
2015-10-22 16:35:10 fib1618: slows you down
2015-10-22 16:35:13 fib1618: speeds you up
2015-10-22 16:35:19 fib1618: and keeps within your lanes
2015-10-22 16:35:33 fib1618: I remember back in the 70's and 80's when we used to talk about self driving vehicles
2015-10-22 16:36:06 fib1618: and how the roads would probably have to be "remarked" with sound or reflection cups so that the car would stay in the lanes
2015-10-22 16:36:17 fib1618: but the Tesla doesn't need that...only a camera
2015-10-22 16:36:32 fib1618: anyway...something to look into
2015-10-22 16:37:00 fib1618: keeping an eye on the components is ALWAYS a necessity
2015-10-22 16:37:09 fib1618: it all works together
2015-10-22 16:37:15 fib1618: the components
2015-10-22 16:37:16 fib1618: in fact
2015-10-22 16:37:32 fib1618: is what separates your knowledge in this area of analysis from everyone else
2015-10-22 16:38:00 fib1618: as a minuscule amount of analysts understand how important this information is
2015-10-22 16:38:17 fib1618: remember
2015-10-22 16:38:25 fib1618: if the components are one side of the zero line
2015-10-22 16:38:30 fib1618: and the MCO is on the other
2015-10-22 16:38:44 fib1618: it's really the only way you'll know if the market is trending or correcting
2015-10-22 16:38:55 fib1618: and THAT will save you a lot of money from losses
2015-10-22 16:39:11 rite01: Yes I've noticed it does a great job
2015-10-22 16:39:26 fib1618: well...you also notice that we include the components in our discussion
2015-10-22 16:39:31 fib1618: so it must be important
2015-10-22 16:39:42 fib1618: OK...back to the NASDAQ
2015-10-22 16:39:53 fib1618: and as mentioned earlier
2015-10-22 16:40:16 fib1618: the NASDAQ MCO components are not in sync with the MCO itself
2015-10-22 16:40:31 fib1618: so those long in this index must take care on any open positions near term
2015-10-22 16:41:06 fib1618: as any kind of bearish ambush would be heightened in this basket of issues
2015-10-22 16:41:18 fib1618: and watch for good follow through on Friday to confirm bull support
2015-10-22 16:43:27 fib1618: moving to the NDX breadth MCO
2015-10-22 16:44:04 fib1618: and here we see that we had a higher reading on Wednesday than the one from last week
2015-10-22 16:44:34 fib1618: showing that it's this basket of issues that are pulling most of weight in the NASDAQ marketplace at this time
2015-10-22 16:45:01 fib1618: we have also cleared above horizontal resistance today
2015-10-22 16:45:38 fib1618: so we should continue to see this leadership quality to the upside over the next several days
2015-10-22 16:46:00 rite01: and cleared an August price gap
2015-10-22 16:46:04 fib1618: whether it will be enough to kick start the broader composite index or not is still up for debate
2015-10-22 16:46:24 fib1618: yes...we also closed the gap
2015-10-22 16:46:41 fib1618: and now about 50 points away from reaching its upside price target as well
2015-10-22 16:47:09 fib1618: for the buyers to keep this thing moving on
2015-10-22 16:47:32 fib1618: it would take a higher reading above Monday's high point
2015-10-22 16:47:37 fib1618: and if this is accomplished
2015-10-22 16:47:55 fib1618: both the +500 level on the NDX breadth MCSUM will be broken to the upside
2015-10-22 16:47:56 fib1618: and with it
2015-10-22 16:48:03 fib1618: new all time highs in prices are then likely
2015-10-22 16:48:22 fib1618: well...check that
2015-10-22 16:48:29 fib1618: maybe it's new recovery highs
2015-10-22 16:48:36 fib1618: let me look...I really forget
2015-10-22 16:49:24 fib1618: intraday high for the NDX is 4816
2015-10-22 16:49:45 fib1618: closing high is 4705
2015-10-22 16:49:56 fib1618: and we're currently at 4503
2015-10-22 16:50:10 fib1618: so we're only 200 points away now from new all time closing highs in the NDX
2015-10-22 16:50:45 fib1618: so around 4.4% from here
2015-10-22 16:50:58 fib1618: in any event
2015-10-22 16:51:05 fib1618: to keep the ball rolling toward this goal
2015-10-22 16:51:17 fib1618: we'll have to see higher highs in the NDX breadth MCO
2015-10-22 16:51:42 fib1618: above those of this past Monday
2015-10-22 16:51:56 fib1618: could see new all time highs next week...shrug...we'll see
2015-10-22 16:52:35 fib1618: we also had a highly low on Wednesday in the SPX breadth MCO by the narrowest of margins
2015-10-22 16:52:59 fib1618: and just like the NDX
2015-10-22 16:53:43 fib1618: this MCO would need to also move above its Monday's highs if we're going to see "escape velocity" meet, and with it, a challenge of the all time highs in prices
2015-10-22 16:53:56 fib1618: for now...2080 remains the target
2015-10-22 16:54:08 fib1618: and that's only 28 points away
2015-10-22 16:54:54 fib1618: as with the SPX
2015-10-22 16:55:05 fib1618: the OEX and Dow saw their expected "power moves" today
2015-10-22 16:55:15 fib1618: breaking above 3 levels of price pattern resistance
2015-10-22 16:55:20 fib1618: the declining trendline
2015-10-22 16:55:31 fib1618: the base of the previous trading range
2015-10-22 16:55:41 fib1618: and the 200 day EMA
2015-10-22 16:56:16 fib1618: this is the kind of robust move that was needed to break above these kinds of formidable resistance
2015-10-22 16:56:35 fib1618: we saw how prices attempted to break above these levels on Wednesday, not once, but twice
2015-10-22 16:56:52 fib1618: and moved sharply lower into the close because of the failed effort
2015-10-22 16:57:23 fib1618: but we also knew that it was likely that a lower close on Wednesday first
2015-10-22 16:57:32 fib1618: but the buyers needed to flex their muscles by today
2015-10-22 16:57:38 fib1618: and so they did
2015-10-22 16:58:17 fib1618: this then re-enforces our ongoing blueprint with respect to the likely future course that we're looking for
2015-10-22 16:58:42 fib1618: which, in this case, is continued strength into the end of the month
2015-10-22 16:59:23 fib1618: the Dow breadth MCSUM, in particular, saw good upside follow through today after moving above the +750 level on Wednesday
2015-10-22 16:59:52 fib1618: and remains the leader as far as commitment of money is concerned
2015-10-22 17:00:13 fib1618: inside range day on the MID today
2015-10-22 17:00:21 fib1618: so we should expect a higher close on Friday
2015-10-22 17:00:27 fib1618: looking at the internals though
2015-10-22 17:00:56 fib1618: and we see that the MID breadth MCO bounced off of zero line support today
2015-10-22 17:01:31 fib1618: while the MID MCO 10% component found technical support off the 5% Trend
2015-10-22 17:01:56 fib1618: this would then suggest that the large caps might be a bit of a laggard on Friday
2015-10-22 17:02:07 fib1618: while the MID plays catch up to today's events
2015-10-22 17:02:56 fib1618: trendline resistance on the MID is still some 25 points above current levels
2015-10-22 17:03:07 fib1618: and if this thing is going to make a go
2015-10-22 17:03:38 fib1618: we'll really need to see a pick up of conviction here
2015-10-22 17:04:03 fib1618: or we're not likely to see much more than a test of the summer highs in the majority of the major market indices
2015-10-22 17:04:44 fib1618: pretty much the same situation with the SML data
2015-10-22 17:05:06 fib1618: including the current price structure
2015-10-22 17:05:54 fib1618: and an obligatory technical bounce as well in the TM breadth MCO
2015-10-22 17:06:06 fib1618: but unless we see this MCO move above last week's peak
2015-10-22 17:06:50 fib1618: it will be difficult for prices to rally above the important 21,600 level in the Wilshire 5000 where we had previous trading range support in prices
2015-10-22 17:06:53 fib1618: so...
2015-10-22 17:07:01 fib1618: things continue to move along as expected
2015-10-22 17:07:23 fib1618: but it may be that we moved a bit too far and too fast today
2015-10-22 17:07:44 fib1618: from where some consolidation through the early part of next week would not be at all surprising
2015-10-22 17:07:55 fib1618: the caveat being
2015-10-22 17:08:09 fib1618: if the NYSE Open 10 is still "oversold"
2015-10-22 17:08:32 fib1618: prices can continue to rise without the direct benefit of throwing more fuel into the mix
2015-10-22 17:08:45 fib1618: let's see how the sectors are doing
2015-10-22 17:09:17 fib1618: the XLY price index continues to sneak to higher highs
2015-10-22 17:09:41 fib1618: and is now within a point now from moving into new all time high territory
2015-10-22 17:10:08 fib1618: much of this, of course, is a direct result of opinions changing on the future course of interest rates
2015-10-22 17:10:48 fib1618: and while the XLY breadth MCSUM is only now moving up and through MCSUM gap resistance
2015-10-22 17:11:09 fib1618: one would have to figure that if the buyers are successful in closing this same gap
2015-10-22 17:11:24 fib1618: that new all time price highs in this basket of issues is a very high probability and even beyond that
2015-10-22 17:11:56 fib1618: and in order to close this same MCSUM gap
2015-10-22 17:12:00 fib1618: yes...that's right
2015-10-22 17:12:11 fib1618: the XLY breadth MCO must move to a higher high compared to last week
2015-10-22 17:12:25 fib1618: so we should have some answers on this one as soon as tomorrow
2015-10-22 17:12:43 fib1618: new all time high close in the XLP today
2015-10-22 17:13:14 fib1618: as the XLP breadth MCSUM is now right up against its next level of natural resistance at the +1250 level
2015-10-22 17:13:22 fib1618: let me check today's volume - one sec
2015-10-22 17:13:55 fib1618: with better than average volume for the last two days
2015-10-22 17:14:12 fib1618: so, as a chartist, we have a strong buy signal with this price index
2015-10-22 17:14:48 fib1618: also got a 13 day ADX trending signal today as well
2015-10-22 17:14:53 fib1618: so long and strong there
2015-10-22 17:15:15 fib1618: moving to the XLE breadth MCO
2015-10-22 17:15:23 fib1618: and as we talked about on Tuesday
2015-10-22 17:15:31 fib1618: if this were to be any chance of a double top in prices
2015-10-22 17:15:41 fib1618: we would want to see this MCO move below its zero line
2015-10-22 17:15:46 fib1618: and then snapback to the zero line
2015-10-22 17:15:58 fib1618: and if after that we see a lower MCO low
2015-10-22 17:16:19 fib1618: this would indicate that the minimal expectation of a double top would be valid
2015-10-22 17:16:24 fib1618: now...if this is a double top
2015-10-22 17:16:31 fib1618: the downside target is quite minimal
2015-10-22 17:16:32 fib1618: let me see
2015-10-22 17:17:13 fib1618: a break of $67 would satisfy the downside target at $66
2015-10-22 17:17:28 fib1618: and interesting to note
2015-10-22 17:17:41 fib1618: that the 20 day EMA is at $66.78
2015-10-22 17:17:57 fib1618: and the 50 day EMA is at $66.46
2015-10-22 17:18:05 fib1618: so if there is trigger
2015-10-22 17:18:22 fib1618: the likely outcome would be for only an intraday test of the $66 level
2015-10-22 17:18:39 fib1618: and then another attempt to the upside would again be seen
2015-10-22 17:18:55 fib1618: so definitely not worth the worry on the sell side at this point
2015-10-22 17:19:02 rite01: This is the type of market analysis I like thanks Dave
2015-10-22 17:19:35 fib1618: and probably more of a buying opportunity given XLE breadth MCSUM has just crossed up and through its zero line
2015-10-22 17:20:06 fib1618: as long as it makes sense to you on "WHY" this or that
2015-10-22 17:20:20 fib1618: frankly
2015-10-22 17:20:25 fib1618: I would be all over XLP
2015-10-22 17:20:35 fib1618: of course
2015-10-22 17:21:30 fib1618: it's always more attractive to ride up a product that might have a better reward waiting
2015-10-22 17:21:42 fib1618: but we really don't know how high, high is for the XLP either
2015-10-22 17:22:12 fib1618: also remember
2015-10-22 17:22:23 fib1618: we have bottoms above bottoms still intact on the XLE breadth MCO
2015-10-22 17:22:28 fib1618: as long as that continues
2015-10-22 17:22:39 fib1618: the path of least resistance remains with the buyers
2015-10-22 17:22:50 rite01: I see that now
2015-10-22 17:23:02 fib1618: moving to the XLF breadth MCO
2015-10-22 17:23:06 fib1618: and viola!
2015-10-22 17:23:21 fib1618: we saw a pullback on Wednesday
2015-10-22 17:23:26 fib1618: followed by a higher high today
2015-10-22 17:23:31 fib1618: and as we talked about last week
2015-10-22 17:23:43 fib1618: in order for the XLF to break above the current price range
2015-10-22 17:23:49 fib1618: two things would need to happen
2015-10-22 17:24:06 fib1618: we would need to see a higher high in the MCO
2015-10-22 17:24:13 fib1618: which we saw on Monday
2015-10-22 17:24:24 fib1618: before pulling back and then making another higher high today
2015-10-22 17:24:55 fib1618: and this double pump action has now allowed the XLF breadth MCSUM to move above its 1 year horizontal resistance level
2015-10-22 17:24:58 fib1618: and with that
2015-10-22 17:25:05 fib1618: prices broke out to the upside today
2015-10-22 17:25:30 fib1618: let's look then for a run to $25 and the recent recovery highs
2015-10-22 17:25:48 fib1618: and monitor money flow as we move closer to this near term target
2015-10-22 17:26:35 fib1618: with any break above "blip resistance" seen on 10/13 on the XLF MCO
2015-10-22 17:26:50 fib1618: clearing the way for prices to move above the summer highs
2015-10-22 17:27:18 fib1618: we also closed above the 200 day EMA today
2015-10-22 17:27:30 fib1618: with the 20 and 50 day EMA's providing pattern support
2015-10-22 17:27:45 fib1618: in fact
2015-10-22 17:28:16 fib1618: you can see how prices have "magically" played tag with the 20/50/200 EMA's over the last couple of weeks
2015-10-22 17:28:51 fib1618: but don't tell anyone about our little secret...these things are all voodoo anyway [wink]
2015-10-22 17:29:54 fib1618: not a lot of love with the XLV breadth MCO over the last couple of days
2015-10-22 17:29:56 fib1618: but then again
2015-10-22 17:30:21 fib1618: our move all the way back to the zero line came after a successful third attempt at a higher high
2015-10-22 17:30:56 fib1618: and now we have two areas of resistance to challenge over the next several days
2015-10-22 17:31:10 fib1618: first, of course, is the XLV breadth MCSUM zero line
2015-10-22 17:31:26 fib1618: and even more importantly
2015-10-22 17:31:46 fib1618: the MCSUM gap resistance zones of late August
2015-10-22 17:32:27 fib1618: looks like that this sector will be a bit of a laggard on any further rally attempt
2015-10-22 17:32:40 fib1618: but it's far from being a good short candidate
2015-10-22 17:32:51 fib1618: better fish to fry...moving on
2015-10-22 17:33:15 fib1618: big move for the XLI index to the upside today
2015-10-22 17:33:27 fib1618: which was confirmed by the XLI breadth MCO
2015-10-22 17:34:01 fib1618: looks like the next stop there is the $56 level
2015-10-22 17:34:23 fib1618: just checked the Dow Transports
2015-10-22 17:34:38 fib1618: and they're in a good position now to break out to the upside above the 200 day EMA
2015-10-22 17:34:49 fib1618: as they have strong underlying EMA support
2015-10-22 17:35:17 fib1618: a technical bounce as well today in the XLB breadth MCO
2015-10-22 17:35:26 fib1618: but enough as yet to move above its blip resistance area
2015-10-22 17:35:44 fib1618: XLB components remain constructive
2015-10-22 17:36:19 fib1618: so any kind of follow through on Friday would be a change of control from the sellers to the buyers by way of the XLB breadth MCSUM moving above its zero line
2015-10-22 17:36:53 fib1618: the XLK index has now met its minimum upside price target
2015-10-22 17:37:21 fib1618: but today's strong move to the upside was supported by the XLK breadth MCSUM moving up and through the +750 level
2015-10-22 17:37:47 fib1618: with the price structure back to a bullish configuration now
2015-10-22 17:38:02 fib1618: let's continue to look for higher highs in this basket of issues into next Thursday
2015-10-22 17:38:55 fib1618: especially if the XLK breadth MCO follows up today's bounce off the +26 level to above last week's highs
2015-10-22 17:39:21 fib1618: and the XLU index has fully met its upside price target of $45.50
2015-10-22 17:39:57 fib1618: with the XLU breadth MCO, and its components, still showing a ton of money moving into this sector
2015-10-22 17:39:59 fib1618: and with it
2015-10-22 17:40:32 fib1618: driving the XLU breadth MCSUM to levels not seen since February
2015-10-22 17:40:35 fib1618: so...
2015-10-22 17:40:40 fib1618: sector wise
2015-10-22 17:40:48 fib1618: it's been a good follow up week
2015-10-22 17:41:16 fib1618: with the defensive issues still showing a lot of capital inflows
2015-10-22 17:41:54 fib1618: while the industrials and financials are now starting to feel the benefits of this new found buying spree we've seen over the last couple of weeks
2015-10-22 17:42:44 fib1618: let's see how the OBV's are doing
2015-10-22 17:43:28 fib1618: a good amount of up volume today
2015-10-22 17:43:36 fib1618: but not enough to be called climactic
2015-10-22 17:43:40 fib1618: let me check the ratio
2015-10-22 17:43:53 fib1618: we were looking for 4:1 or better to kick start the volume MCO's
2015-10-22 17:44:22 fib1618: only got 2:1
2015-10-22 17:44:34 fib1618: seems like short covering
2015-10-22 17:44:43 fib1618: we'll see in a moment
2015-10-22 17:45:19 fib1618: XLP is not only climactic, but it's also highly "overbought" across the board now
2015-10-22 17:46:04 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 1.09
2015-10-22 17:46:16 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.16
2015-10-22 17:46:40 fib1618: and that's after a 1.66% rise in the SPX index?
2015-10-22 17:46:44 fib1618: yeow!
2015-10-22 17:46:57 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .70
2015-10-22 17:47:09 fib1618: Open 10 at .88
2015-10-22 17:47:25 fib1618: TM TRIN at .86
2015-10-22 17:47:45 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.00
2015-10-22 17:47:53 fib1618: so..
2015-10-22 17:48:05 fib1618: the bottom line for now is...
2015-10-22 17:48:20 fib1618: any surprises will likely be to the upside for the next several days
2015-10-22 17:48:34 fib1618: as we continue to be deeply "oversold" on the NYSE
2015-10-22 17:48:55 fib1618: and money continues to rotate and not move out of equities
2015-10-22 17:49:08 fib1618: let me check the BETS and we'll call it an evening
2015-10-22 17:50:43 fib1618: -15
2015-10-22 17:50:47 fib1618: we're stuck there
2015-10-22 17:51:07 fib1618: not a lot of cumulative action today with such a resounding punch through resistance
2015-10-22 17:51:17 fib1618: and that may be a warning sign
2015-10-22 17:51:27 fib1618: tomorrow will tell the tale for the weekend
2015-10-22 17:52:04 fib1618: as we're literally on the fence right now from going back to a negative reading on the BETS
2015-10-22 17:52:16 fib1618: we'll see how it goes
2015-10-22 17:52:19 fib1618: anything else?
2015-10-22 17:52:54 fib1618: bottom line for now
2015-10-22 17:53:16 fib1618: we have more than enough behind us to reach the upside price targets mentioned a couple of weeks ago
2015-10-22 17:53:37 fib1618: but unless we get an "extended burn" to put us into a higher orbit
2015-10-22 17:53:49 fib1618: we might have a tumble at the beginning of next month
2015-10-22 17:54:11 fib1618: we'll look at that next week but, for now, the rest of the month looks positive
2015-10-22 17:54:41 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2015-10-22 17:54:47 fib1618: I'm going to take my leave
2015-10-22 17:54:57 thespookyone: thx
2015-10-22 17:55:01 fib1618: everyone have a super weekend of fun and frivolity
2015-10-22 17:55:07 fib1618: and we'll do this all again on Tuesday
2015-10-22 17:55:14 fib1618: (go jays)
2015-10-22 17:55:15 fib1618: good night
2015-10-22 17:55:28 rite01: will do and you too


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