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fib_1618

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Posts: 4,418
Reply with quote  #1 
2014-10-02 16:00:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2014-10-02 16:00:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2014-10-02 16:01:16 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: good thank you...and you?
2014-10-02 16:01:43 [Message] sp112358 -> Chat: Good, hope you are too.
2014-10-02 16:02:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doing fine...thanks
2014-10-02 16:02:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2014-10-02 16:03:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: myself? I'm hoping that all of the MCO's are now washed out
2014-10-02 16:04:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no hints please [smile]
2014-10-02 16:04:11 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: been a fun week on the short side  [smile]
2014-10-02 16:04:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the pattern was looking poor on Tuesday...no surprise of yesterday's decline
2014-10-02 16:04:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though the ISEE came in at 48 on Wednesday
2014-10-02 16:04:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: soooooo many put buyers
2014-10-02 16:05:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: need to spanked it would seem
2014-10-02 16:05:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's get SC up and let's see what we have to work with
2014-10-02 16:06:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving to a lower low on Wednesday
2014-10-02 16:06:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO reflexed higher today
2014-10-02 16:06:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but still remains below the high point of last Thursday
2014-10-02 16:06:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until this point in the pattern is taken out
2014-10-02 16:06:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the sellers will continue to have control of the action
2014-10-02 16:06:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYA price index
2014-10-02 16:07:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that our downside price target given last week has now been met
2014-10-02 16:07:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and, in fact, we moved below the "neckline" of the double top formation
2014-10-02 16:07:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unfortunately for the buyers
2014-10-02 16:07:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we did NOT close above yesterdays close
2014-10-02 16:08:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which leaves us vulnerable to only a simple snapback to our towards this same neckline
2014-10-02 16:08:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so unless this is immediately improved upon on Friday
2014-10-02 16:08:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the next likely target would be the 10,300 level
2014-10-02 16:09:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would then set off the double top
2014-10-02 16:09:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and give us a longer term price objective of around 8900 for the NYA
2014-10-02 16:09:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me double check that
2014-10-02 16:10:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: actually
2014-10-02 16:10:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the downside target of the double top is 9850
2014-10-02 16:10:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let ms see how I came up with the 8900 target - one sec
2014-10-02 16:11:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...that target is based on the weekly trading range
2014-10-02 16:11:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in any event
2014-10-02 16:11:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see if the buyers have it in them or not to climb back above the ledge or not by Monday
2014-10-02 16:12:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2014-10-02 16:12:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we have the potential of bull divergence in place
2014-10-02 16:12:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where this MCO did NOT move to lower lows on Wednesday's sell off
2014-10-02 16:13:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this divergence will not be triggered, however, until we see a move back above the mid September highs in this MCO
2014-10-02 16:14:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: interesting to note that today's price bar action found its resistance at the 200 day EMA
2014-10-02 16:14:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for anyone out there who is Candlestick savvy
2014-10-02 16:14:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would today's stick be classified as a Hammer with such a narrow body?
2014-10-02 16:14:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't know
2014-10-02 16:15:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 8 day ADX is suggesting downside Trend Exhaustion here
2014-10-02 16:15:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the 13 day still has a ways to go
2014-10-02 16:15:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe the end of an Elliott 3 down?
2014-10-02 16:16:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lets move on and see if we get anymore clues
2014-10-02 16:16:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also note that we moved down and through the -250 level on the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM today
2014-10-02 16:16:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if there's any follow through on Friday
2014-10-02 16:16:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the next target there will be the -500 level
2014-10-02 16:17:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and pretty much lock us into the month of October as being likely a poor one
2014-10-02 16:17:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like we have a Hammer stick on the NASDAQ
2014-10-02 16:18:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NASDAQ breadth MCO marking an "oversold" condition
2014-10-02 16:18:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM is now approaching its next support level at -500
2014-10-02 16:18:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unfortunately though
2014-10-02 16:19:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yesterday's technical breakdown below the MCSUM rising bottoms line makes the idea of this current Hammer as one that will have a hard time in holding
2014-10-02 16:19:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as our expectation would be for this MCSUM to take out its May lows
2014-10-02 16:20:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there was a lower low in the NDX breadth MCO yesterday
2014-10-02 16:20:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the NDX and COMPQ are moving pretty much in sync now
2014-10-02 16:21:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like the Composite
2014-10-02 16:21:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCSUM broke its rising bottoms line on Wednesday
2014-10-02 16:21:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we thought would happen on Tuesday
2014-10-02 16:21:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we knew it and FELT this break by the afternoon
2014-10-02 16:22:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we saw a small bounce higher in the SPX breadth MCO today after it moved to new lows on Wednesday
2014-10-02 16:23:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but its not enough energy here that would suggest that the SPX breadth MCSUM will be able to hold at the previous horizontal lows we see in August and February
2014-10-02 16:23:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a zero line test is a fairly good bet now
2014-10-02 16:24:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our long standing initial downside price target of 1925 was met today in the SPX
2014-10-02 16:25:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as long as this MCO doesn't take out the low points seen in the February and July periods
2014-10-02 16:25:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the early August price bottom should hold in the SPX
2014-10-02 16:25:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any take out though of these same MCO lows
2014-10-02 16:26:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we have a whole new ball game
2014-10-02 16:26:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the next target of 1825
2014-10-02 16:28:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the OEX
2014-10-02 16:29:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we finally got a MCO/Component sell signal today
2014-10-02 16:29:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the 5% Trend moved down and through its zero line
2014-10-02 16:29:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and yes...it's very much correlated to the OEX breadth MCSUM's break below the +500 level today
2014-10-02 16:30:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the 1 year price pattern though
2014-10-02 16:30:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that bottoms above bottoms continue to control this longer term pattern
2014-10-02 16:30:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so until this changes, longer term, the trend continues to be up
2014-10-02 16:31:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: actually...I should elaborate a bit on this
2014-10-02 16:32:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the rising bottoms line that connects the April and August lows was violated today
2014-10-02 16:32:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BUT...we closed perceptively back above this same line at the close
2014-10-02 16:33:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like looking over the edge of a cliff, being pushed, but grabbing onto a root and pulling yourself back up
2014-10-02 16:33:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but now that the +500 level is broken on the MCSUM
2014-10-02 16:33:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should expect that this MCSUM is now moving to its next area of natural support at the +250 level
2014-10-02 16:34:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should continue to see further weakness over the next week or so in this basket of stocks
2014-10-02 16:35:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also got a MCO/Component sell signal today on the Dow breadth MCO
2014-10-02 16:35:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we finally have all of the major indices on sell signals
2014-10-02 16:35:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like the OEX
2014-10-02 16:35:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCSUM also moved down and through its +500 level today as well
2014-10-02 16:36:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so as we were touching on over the last couple of sessions
2014-10-02 16:36:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should now see the large caps begin to play catch up with the weakness in the MID and SML
2014-10-02 16:37:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to where we can get the market back to total synchronicity again
2014-10-02 16:37:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like we have complex bottom being built in the MID breadth MCO
2014-10-02 16:38:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which suggest that today's candlestick should be assigned as a "Hammer"
2014-10-02 16:38:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though the daily volume doesn't quite fit the guidelines
2014-10-02 16:39:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though 600 million shares is nothing to sneeze at either
2014-10-02 16:39:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: looks to me like the bottom of three's here almost all around...
2014-10-02 16:39:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's a trivia question for anyone
2014-10-02 16:39:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can you remember what the volume was on the NYSE on the crash of 1987?
2014-10-02 16:39:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be Lew
2014-10-02 16:40:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'll leave the answer for later
2014-10-02 16:40:23 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: I know it was considered "light"
2014-10-02 16:40:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not in those days!
2014-10-02 16:40:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2014-10-02 16:41:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a big day in the market in 1987 was 100 million total shares traded
2014-10-02 16:41:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we didn't have computers
2014-10-02 16:41:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or better said
2014-10-02 16:41:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we were running on Commodores [smile]
2014-10-02 16:41:52 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: 5 or 600 hundred million, I think, that day
2014-10-02 16:42:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and notice how the SML breadth MCSUM plowed through the -500 level on Wednesday
2014-10-02 16:42:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: close enough Lew
2014-10-02 16:42:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was 617 million shares
2014-10-02 16:42:30 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: WOW!
2014-10-02 16:42:42 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it did feel massive..
2014-10-02 16:42:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I remember that it took 3 WEEKS to sort out the trades
2014-10-02 16:42:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as they had a layer of trading tickets on the floor of the NYSE that it took them all night (maybe more?) to clean up
2014-10-02 16:43:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that was one of the bigger problems
2014-10-02 16:44:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there wasn't enough capacity to handle the futures related sell programs from the arbs
2014-10-02 16:44:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still remember opening up down 200 in the first 15 minutes on the Dow
2014-10-02 16:44:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (on the Dow)
2014-10-02 16:44:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping in mind
2014-10-02 16:44:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that was a 9% decline
2014-10-02 16:44:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fun day
2014-10-02 16:45:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I had OEX puts
2014-10-02 16:45:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: couldn't get out until Tuesday afternoon
2014-10-02 16:45:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: talk about chaos
2014-10-02 16:45:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the intraday low on Tuesday was 1616
2014-10-02 16:45:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or 700 points from Friday's close
2014-10-02 16:46:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 31%
2014-10-02 16:46:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in two days
2014-10-02 16:46:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now
2014-10-02 16:46:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 600 million shares is nothing
2014-10-02 16:46:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyone want to guess which stock was the first that traded 2 million shares in a day?
2014-10-02 16:47:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'll leave that for anyone and move on...oh...and the volume on October 20th was a bit higher with the spike bottom...647 million
2014-10-02 16:47:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SML breadth MCO
2014-10-02 16:47:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we remain below the recent high points
2014-10-02 16:47:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less the declining tops line
2014-10-02 16:47:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until both of these areas of resistance are taken out
2014-10-02 16:48:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we remain vulnerable to further bear ambushes
2014-10-02 16:48:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no matter how low the ISEE numbers get
2014-10-02 16:48:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or anything else that would suggest that a bottom is being created
2014-10-02 16:48:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in this context
2014-10-02 16:48:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OF COURSE a bottom is being created
2014-10-02 16:48:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at this point
2014-10-02 16:48:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still don't have an firm indication of where this bottom lies
2014-10-02 16:49:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so you have to be very careful in not making an end run in moving long for a quick reflex until it actual happens
2014-10-02 16:49:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after all
2014-10-02 16:49:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today we recovered nicely intraday
2014-10-02 16:50:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we didn't take out the reaction price consolidations we saw towards of the end of Wednesday's trading
2014-10-02 16:50:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's not a good omen near term
2014-10-02 16:50:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it suggests that many are sitting on their hands and waiting for more information
2014-10-02 16:50:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where, in this case, it's likely to be the jobs data on Friday
2014-10-02 16:50:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the tone for October has now been set
2014-10-02 16:51:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with any idea of a tradable bottom coming this week is pretty much a low probability
2014-10-02 16:51:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other thing to remember too
2014-10-02 16:52:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we usually don't see a clear cut end to a trend until ALL of the breadth MCO's sing their song in unison
2014-10-02 16:52:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we don't see indices like the NYA and MID singing a different tune
2014-10-02 16:52:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: eventually
2014-10-02 16:53:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will need to be sorted so that the price engine can "hummm" again
2014-10-02 16:53:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have the possibility of a divergent bottom in the TM breadth MCO as well
2014-10-02 16:54:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the TM breadth MCSUM continues to dig lower on its way to its likely target of -500
2014-10-02 16:54:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-10-02 16:54:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we got our anticipated breakdowns on Wednesday
2014-10-02 16:54:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with another attempt to stabilize seen during the trading day today
2014-10-02 16:55:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as many of the MCO's are now highly to deeply "oversold"
2014-10-02 16:55:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a one to day relief period is to be anticipated
2014-10-02 16:55:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we don't quite enough substance here to call a price bottom at this point
2014-10-02 16:55:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although we see a nice attempt to do so today
2014-10-02 16:55:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the sectors are fairing
2014-10-02 16:56:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: btw
2014-10-02 16:57:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the yield on the 10 year note came close to filling the daily pattern gap seen back after Labor Day today
2014-10-02 16:57:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but held this level at 2.40%
2014-10-02 16:57:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as this gap continues to hold
2014-10-02 16:57:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should be applied as a "break away" type
2014-10-02 16:57:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at this point
2014-10-02 16:58:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as was our expectation earlier in the month of September
2014-10-02 16:58:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a 80% retracement in of the advance we saw in rates during the first half of the month
2014-10-02 16:59:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll continue to take our cues from the Bond CEF A/D line when it's posted this weekend as to whether we found a bottom here - OR - we'll continue on our way to our longer term downside target of 2.15%
2014-10-02 16:59:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLY moved to deeply "oversold" levels on Wednesday
2014-10-02 17:00:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this coordinated with the XLY moving down and through its zero line with the usual outcome in prices taking a hit
2014-10-02 17:00:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also note that yesterday's "hit" broke the accelerated rising bottoms line in the pattern
2014-10-02 17:01:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is first such break in a long time
2014-10-02 17:01:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me look at longer term chart
2014-10-02 17:02:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2014-10-02 17:02:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was a break of the rising bottoms line going back to November of last year
2014-10-02 17:02:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sorry
2014-10-02 17:02:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from November of 2012!
2014-10-02 17:02:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a 2 year uptrend
2014-10-02 17:03:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a good reversal bar today though
2014-10-02 17:03:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we closed above yesterday's settlement
2014-10-02 17:04:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with yesterday's break in the MCO
2014-10-02 17:04:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we now have a new downside price target of around $63
2014-10-02 17:04:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or another 5%
2014-10-02 17:05:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with any break of the February lows in the XLY breadth MCSUM generating new lower targets to around $60.50
2014-10-02 17:05:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change in the XLP breadth MCO
2014-10-02 17:05:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see how this basket of stocks continues to see defensive flows
2014-10-02 17:06:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we continue to see corrective indications between the MCO and the XLP MCO components
2014-10-02 17:07:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less the price action staying buoyant
2014-10-02 17:07:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: longer term
2014-10-02 17:07:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is bullish information
2014-10-02 17:07:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as not all of the bath water is being thrown out the window
2014-10-02 17:07:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then again
2014-10-02 17:07:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money flowing into the large caps finally took a blow yesterday
2014-10-02 17:07:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll continue to watch this
2014-10-02 17:07:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if it continues to improve
2014-10-02 17:08:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or better said
2014-10-02 17:08:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the XLP breadth MCO moves back above its zero line
2014-10-02 17:08:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we shouldn't be surprised at all to see the price action back into all new time highs
2014-10-02 17:09:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: downside target has now been met in the XLE
2014-10-02 17:09:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you were trading this from the peak in mid September
2014-10-02 17:09:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's now time to bank your profits as the easy part of the trade is finished
2014-10-02 17:10:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change in the XLE breadth MCO
2014-10-02 17:10:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus the components are ridiculously "oversold" now
2014-10-02 17:11:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where a sharp reflex rally can begin at any time
2014-10-02 17:11:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: SAR signal is at $91.90
2014-10-02 17:11:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one could set a sliding stop as well
2014-10-02 17:11:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in any event...it was a nice trade
2014-10-02 17:12:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Yes Sir!
2014-10-02 17:12:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then you have everyone talking about the slide in oil lately
2014-10-02 17:12:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that alone is worth a cover
2014-10-02 17:12:33 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Great call by you in the room [smile]
2014-10-02 17:12:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...
2014-10-02 17:12:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm just a "mouthpiece"
2014-10-02 17:12:54 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: yes, great call!
2014-10-02 17:12:57 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: I agree with Spookyone...great calls!
2014-10-02 17:13:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's the thing
2014-10-02 17:13:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are all looking at the same thing
2014-10-02 17:13:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and hopefully you take something away from these forecasts
2014-10-02 17:13:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in that it's the flow of money that determines where price is likely to travel
2014-10-02 17:13:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and sometimes
2014-10-02 17:14:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it tells us when it's likely to happen by
2014-10-02 17:14:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the one thing you never want to do is
2014-10-02 17:14:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: give yourself a set time for something to happen
2014-10-02 17:14:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will kill your trade
2014-10-02 17:14:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this XLE is a great example
2014-10-02 17:15:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remembering back to the early August spike in the XLE breadth MCO
2014-10-02 17:15:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that gave us the "insight" that prices were going to move out of its consolidation to the downside
2014-10-02 17:15:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this was at a time in which we had some nervous drum beats of war in the middle east
2014-10-02 17:15:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and oil was moving up sharply
2014-10-02 17:15:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but here
2014-10-02 17:16:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money told us to keep our focus
2014-10-02 17:16:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and gave us a downside target of around $94
2014-10-02 17:16:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we hit that
2014-10-02 17:16:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we rallied
2014-10-02 17:16:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the internals, as measured by the MCO
2014-10-02 17:16:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: were not able to move back above the +50 level
2014-10-02 17:17:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the +50 level is very much like the +500 level in the MCSUM
2014-10-02 17:17:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only difference being
2014-10-02 17:17:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is the time period these tools represent
2014-10-02 17:17:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it wasn't until the failure to move back above the zero line in mid September
2014-10-02 17:18:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we KNEW that the $94 lows were not going to hold
2014-10-02 17:18:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that gave us another downside target of $89
2014-10-02 17:18:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, if I remember correctly, was also the .618 retracement level from the highs (?)
2014-10-02 17:19:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we had a lot of evidence that we were going to get there
2014-10-02 17:19:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now...
2014-10-02 17:19:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we stand aside and move on
2014-10-02 17:19:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course we can continue to look for future setups
2014-10-02 17:19:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the general market being so timid here to relieve itself
2014-10-02 17:20:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to stick your neck out in trying to play a reflex here might not work out as one would had hoped
2014-10-02 17:20:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so better to look around
2014-10-02 17:20:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and see what else is out there that we can exploit
2014-10-02 17:20:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then you the PROBABILITY here of a divergent MCO bottom in the XLE
2014-10-02 17:21:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why "probability"?
2014-10-02 17:21:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not "possibility"?
2014-10-02 17:21:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because the MCSUM is now in deeply "oversold" territory
2014-10-02 17:21:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which tells us that all of the willing and UNwilling sellers are just about flushed out
2014-10-02 17:22:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: having gotten all bulled up with the Middle East diatribe
2014-10-02 17:22:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember also that the futures had backwardation
2014-10-02 17:22:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now...that's been corrected
2014-10-02 17:22:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's supply and demand
2014-10-02 17:22:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and demand and supply
2014-10-02 17:22:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's all this is
2014-10-02 17:22:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and nothing more
2014-10-02 17:23:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF moved to a lower low on Wednesday
2014-10-02 17:23:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and took out the August lows in the XLF breadth MCO in doing so
2014-10-02 17:24:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would now suggest that a full retracement back to the $22 level is underway
2014-10-02 17:24:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if this happens
2014-10-02 17:24:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so goes the rising bottoms line
2014-10-02 17:24:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is not a good thing
2014-10-02 17:24:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for it has been our expectation to see both the Financials and the Tech sectors leading the charge on this advance from 2011/2012
2014-10-02 17:24:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far
2014-10-02 17:25:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's been OK...
2014-10-02 17:25:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially with Tech
2014-10-02 17:25:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it would seem something else is bothering traders here
2014-10-02 17:25:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it might be something to do with high credit card debt levels with consumers
2014-10-02 17:25:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something in which isn't talked about very much
2014-10-02 17:26:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but is a very real problem
2014-10-02 17:26:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since these institutions continue to charge rates of around 15% per year
2014-10-02 17:26:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where their cost of money is near zero
2014-10-02 17:26:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...we'll keep an on eye on this one as we move along
2014-10-02 17:27:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV price action continues to hold on to its high level consolidation pattern
2014-10-02 17:28:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the XLV breadth MCO moved to its lowest levels since early August
2014-10-02 17:28:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's continue to look for a move to the $62 level there
2014-10-02 17:29:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which should come around as we get closer to the final capitulation point in the market
2014-10-02 17:29:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy..we sure are "oversold" here
2014-10-02 17:29:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means that when we do bottom
2014-10-02 17:29:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's going to be a long lasting one
2014-10-02 17:30:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only question for now is...
2014-10-02 17:30:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at what level will that bottom be?
2014-10-02 17:30:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI breadth MCO remains deeply "oversold"
2014-10-02 17:30:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this will have a numbing effect on the Dow Industrials and Transports
2014-10-02 17:31:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like we're going to move down and through the XLI breadth MCSUM on Friday
2014-10-02 17:31:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you've noticed
2014-10-02 17:32:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's no mere coincidence that the Dow breadth MCO moved below its +500 level at the same time that the XLI breadth MCO broke below its zero line 
2014-10-02 17:33:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price action in the XLB finally broke down over the last couple of days
2014-10-02 17:33:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in a effort to catch up to the precious metals weakness of late
2014-10-02 17:34:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the XLB breadth MCO taking out the previous lows of the last 52 weeks
2014-10-02 17:34:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not likely that we're going to hold within the anticipated trading range lows of early August
2014-10-02 17:34:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BTW
2014-10-02 17:35:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this slow drip, drip, drip in the metals is very dangerous chart action
2014-10-02 17:35:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see how weak the complex is as gold has tried to rally over the last couple of days and could not hold its gains
2014-10-02 17:36:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: seems to be that if $1210 gives way, it's a quick trip to the $1185 lows
2014-10-02 17:36:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping in mind
2014-10-02 17:36:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the .618 retracement level for gold from the highs is at $1156
2014-10-02 17:37:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll continue to let the PM/XAU A/D lines give us guidance on this one
2014-10-02 17:37:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a slightly lower low in the XLK breadth MCO on Wednesday
2014-10-02 17:37:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like we've been commenting
2014-10-02 17:38:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's good thing that several of the MCSUM's have been above their +500 level
2014-10-02 17:38:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who have been (like the OEX and Dow)
2014-10-02 17:38:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: were able to fight off the initial attack by the sellers
2014-10-02 17:38:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but once +500 broke
2014-10-02 17:38:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: down they went in a huff
2014-10-02 17:38:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same thing here with the XLK
2014-10-02 17:39:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it still remains above the +500 level
2014-10-02 17:39:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why prices continue to stay solvent
2014-10-02 17:39:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking ruler to monitor here
2014-10-02 17:39:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and connecting the February and May price lows
2014-10-02 17:40:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that today's action bounced right off this same line of positive influence
2014-10-02 17:40:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so don't let anyone tell you that trend lines don't matter
2014-10-02 17:40:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: [smile]
2014-10-02 17:40:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2014-10-02 17:41:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this buoyancy is about to end
2014-10-02 17:41:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the XLK breadth MCSUM broke below its August lows today
2014-10-02 17:41:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we now have a new downside price target to work with of $38
2014-10-02 17:41:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not much of a move
2014-10-02 17:42:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we break the April/May MCSUM lows
2014-10-02 17:42:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we'll have a target of around $36
2014-10-02 17:42:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's 10%
2014-10-02 17:42:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a short here is prudent
2014-10-02 17:43:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a stop at .10 above Tuesday's intraday highs
2014-10-02 17:43:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which looks like about 40.20
2014-10-02 17:43:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so you're playing for a point
2014-10-02 17:43:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: easy peasy [smile]
2014-10-02 17:44:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a snapback now complete to the XLU breadth MCO
2014-10-02 17:44:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though we didn't have any upside texture to the move
2014-10-02 17:44:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then indicate a "rush to safety"
2014-10-02 17:45:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and these kind of emotional impulses tend to be retraced fairly quickly once finished
2014-10-02 17:45:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...
2014-10-02 17:45:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty consistent in the idea that money is moving into defensive issues as opposed to all out selling
2014-10-02 17:46:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, again, longer term, is good news
2014-10-02 17:46:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once we get this indigestion part out of the way
2014-10-02 17:46:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-10-02 17:46:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market remains under pressure right now
2014-10-02 17:46:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as many of the breadth MCO's are now "oversold" enough to where "flags" are usually seen
2014-10-02 17:47:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these flag points are provided as a way to determine future points to where the amount of selling begins to lessen
2014-10-02 17:48:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this then provides us with divergences from which to trade off of
2014-10-02 17:48:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our major problem though is that we don't have all of the breadth MCO"s making lower lows on Wednesday
2014-10-02 17:48:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and until we get some uniformity here
2014-10-02 17:48:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're likely to continue to be volatile and choppy
2014-10-02 17:48:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as both sides duke it out for short term control
2014-10-02 17:48:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2014-10-02 17:49:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears remain in the driver's seat
2014-10-02 17:49:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but their stay is becoming a bit long in the tooth
2014-10-02 17:49:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the volume oscillators look
2014-10-02 17:50:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's continue to bounce off climactic levels
2014-10-02 17:50:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should be close to seeing a price low near term
2014-10-02 17:50:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: surprisingly though that the STVO's are not quite as "oversold" as they should be for a price bottom of importance
2014-10-02 17:51:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the VTO's are now getting close to an "oversold" reading
2014-10-02 17:51:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so taken together
2014-10-02 17:52:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that if we're going to have a good old fashioned washout
2014-10-02 17:52:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will likely take place early next week
2014-10-02 17:52:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the capitulation part will come later
2014-10-02 17:52:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .90
2014-10-02 17:52:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.13
2014-10-02 17:53:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not quite what one would like to see after the market took a dive only the day before
2014-10-02 17:53:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still some bottom pickers here
2014-10-02 17:53:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.62
2014-10-02 17:53:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's better
2014-10-02 17:53:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 now getting up there at 1.05
2014-10-02 17:54:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.17
2014-10-02 17:54:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.08
2014-10-02 17:54:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and still in need of heavier selling to take place
2014-10-02 17:54:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-10-02 17:55:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that we're closer now to a price low than we were on Tuesday
2014-10-02 17:55:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though on an intermediate term basis
2014-10-02 17:55:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there was enough technical damage now to where we shouldn't expect a tradable low until sometime around Election Day here in the states
2014-10-02 17:56:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and until we can sort out these divergences in the various index MCO's
2014-10-02 17:56:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should continue to see choppy, volatile behavior
2014-10-02 17:56:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that will tend to sort out, most likely, after October OPEX on the 17th
2014-10-02 17:56:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now
2014-10-02 17:57:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll continue to be in cash
2014-10-02 17:57:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or look for sectors that continue to lead to the downside
2014-10-02 17:57:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and playing those issues that are leading in that direction
2014-10-02 17:57:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the BETS prelim
2014-10-02 17:57:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one moment
2014-10-02 17:58:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the TSX Ventures has now taken out the December lows
2014-10-02 17:59:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the metals are VERY weak here - caution to the gold bulls
2014-10-02 17:59:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYAD line closed right on its longer term rising bottoms line on Wednesday
2014-10-02 18:00:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NYUD line right on its 1% Trend (200 day EMA)
2014-10-02 18:00:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the weakness in the TSX continues to be astounding
2014-10-02 18:00:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: -30
2014-10-02 18:00:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how it settles after tomorrow
2014-10-02 18:01:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2014-10-02 18:01:20 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: great chat as always
2014-10-02 18:01:42 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: thank you again Fib
2014-10-02 18:01:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's nice when you have things to work with
2014-10-02 18:01:51 [Message] sp112358 -> Chat: Always learning...
2014-10-02 18:01:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: me too
2014-10-02 18:02:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's why we love this work so much!
2014-10-02 18:02:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why does a pattern find support or resistance at an EMA?
2014-10-02 18:02:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why does a pattern find support or resistance when you take two points and an extend a line out in time?
2014-10-02 18:03:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why does this stuff work as consistently as it does?
2014-10-02 18:03:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why doesn't everyone know this?
2014-10-02 18:03:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: [smile]
2014-10-02 18:03:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's all fascinating and amazing
2014-10-02 18:03:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's like a drug
2014-10-02 18:03:41 [Message] sp112358 -> Chat: so true
2014-10-02 18:03:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...the bottom line here
2014-10-02 18:03:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we just want to make money
2014-10-02 18:03:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we don't care which direction it is
2014-10-02 18:04:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only that we continue to hit for singles
2014-10-02 18:04:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the home runs will come
2014-10-02 18:04:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and above all else
2014-10-02 18:04:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: be flexible in your convictions and respect what your data tells you
2014-10-02 18:04:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...with that
2014-10-02 18:04:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2014-10-02 18:04:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a super duper weekend
2014-10-02 18:05:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll do this all again next Tuesday
2014-10-02 18:05:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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