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Posts: 4,418
Reply with quote  #1 
2012-10-02 16:00:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2012-10-02 16:00:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2012-10-02 16:01:14 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Hi, nice market
2012-10-02 16:01:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice for day traders...yes sir
2012-10-02 16:02:01 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: yoyo
2012-10-02 16:02:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: consolidations are like that...push and pull
2012-10-02 16:03:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2012-10-02 16:04:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing on your minds
2012-10-02 16:04:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me get DP up and we'll get started
2012-10-02 16:05:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving slightly lower on Friday
2012-10-02 16:05:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO has now taken out last Thursday's highs
2012-10-02 16:05:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we have created our "flag" point in the MCO pattern to where all else will be compared moving forward
2012-10-02 16:06:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that we did move to a higher high today
2012-10-02 16:06:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds are now favorable that we should see a full snapback to the zero line now
2012-10-02 16:06:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and from there we hope to see a continuation of our building a foundational bottom that will include the "texture" of bottoms above bottoms
2012-10-02 16:07:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components
2012-10-02 16:07:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we continue to play tag with the zero line
2012-10-02 16:07:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 5% above the zero line
2012-10-02 16:07:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the 10% continues to tread below the zero line
2012-10-02 16:07:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taken together
2012-10-02 16:07:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we then remain in a corrective situation
2012-10-02 16:07:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping prices locked in a trading range
2012-10-02 16:08:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with 8200 being the lower end of the range and 8500 the top end
2012-10-02 16:08:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a nice bit of room for day traders to make some dough while we wait for a resolution
2012-10-02 16:08:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2012-10-02 16:09:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that, once again, the bears are showing a real lack of conviction
2012-10-02 16:09:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the distance between the postings continues to narrow
2012-10-02 16:09:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the negative side
2012-10-02 16:10:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this MCSUM did indeed break below its rising trend line on Friday
2012-10-02 16:10:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have to be defensive here, at least for the next week, or so as both sides battle for control
2012-10-02 16:11:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite NYSE breadth MCO also moved higher today
2012-10-02 16:11:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and also generated a small point change tonight
2012-10-02 16:11:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should expect a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading sessions
2012-10-02 16:11:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we use the last 6 months or so for guidance
2012-10-02 16:12:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have seen the market make any major moves at this time of the month on the Thursday before Friday's jobs numbers
2012-10-02 16:12:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should lean towards that time frame as probably being important with this small point change
2012-10-02 16:12:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components
2012-10-02 16:13:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they still remain above their zero lines
2012-10-02 16:13:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have nothing thus far suggesting to us to sell our longs here and to continue to be patient with our holds
2012-10-02 16:14:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE composite MCSUM
2012-10-02 16:14:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we are now very close to fulfilling a simple snapback to previous range we see on the chart
2012-10-02 16:14:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to reinforce this idea
2012-10-02 16:15:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a continuation of the current move higher in the MCO towards the zero line should be our near term expectation
2012-10-02 16:15:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe then hug that line....
2012-10-02 16:15:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: attempt to move above the zero line (a bounce off the snapback in the MCSUM)
2012-10-02 16:16:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then that would be our first chance of a tradable low
2012-10-02 16:16:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind
2012-10-02 16:16:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will also see that last weeks lows in the MCO pretty much matched those in June and July which marked the price lows in the NYA
2012-10-02 16:17:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so until this level is taken out
2012-10-02 16:17:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can continue to be friendly towards the market
2012-10-02 16:17:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change as well with the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2012-10-02 16:17:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we have yet moved above last weeks highs in the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2012-10-02 16:18:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking ruler to monitor here
2012-10-02 16:18:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that not only did we close the day right on the rising bottoms line
2012-10-02 16:19:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we are also just above the natural support level of the +250 level (+262)
2012-10-02 16:19:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here again...this could be a nice place to at least see upside follow through in breadth near term in the market's further effort to find balance between bulls and bears on a short term basis
2012-10-02 16:20:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the price pattern
2012-10-02 16:20:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we continue to chop around at just above the levels in which prices topped out in the spring of this year
2012-10-02 16:20:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so as a long as we hold these levels, this a highly bullish event
2012-10-02 16:21:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it shows good bid support by traders at these levels
2012-10-02 16:21:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that prices are, in fact, fairly valued with all of the information that is known
2012-10-02 16:21:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so in this area
2012-10-02 16:22:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will take something very surprising now to change the markets mind and shift the bias to that of being bearish
2012-10-02 16:22:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it...
2012-10-02 16:22:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the shorts are running out of time
2012-10-02 16:22:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tick tock
2012-10-02 16:22:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before we'll see a more productive resumption of the ongoing uptrend
2012-10-02 16:22:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as many saw from yesterday
2012-10-02 16:22:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had what is classified as a "false start"
2012-10-02 16:23:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the Dow and SPX nicely higher
2012-10-02 16:23:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the NDX, SML failing to lead
2012-10-02 16:23:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MID being in negative territory for much of the day
2012-10-02 16:23:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today was better
2012-10-02 16:24:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with leadership coming back into those areas that didn't agree with the large caps on Monday
2012-10-02 16:25:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact, looking at the charts above on this page
2012-10-02 16:25:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the MID had good leadership to the upside today
2012-10-02 16:25:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so maybe there was a re-balance on Monday
2012-10-02 16:26:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will be important that everything "work together" or you will know that there's eventually going to be some sort of failure
2012-10-02 16:26:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the 21 day close up on the NASDAQ chart
2012-10-02 16:26:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see again that prices closed above the previous closes of the last two trading sessions
2012-10-02 16:27:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's usually good enough for a continuation to the upside near term
2012-10-02 16:27:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NDX data
2012-10-02 16:27:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here the NDX breadth MCO moved to higher highs today
2012-10-02 16:28:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so we should see some follow through in this same direction on Wednesday
2012-10-02 16:28:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NDX breadth MCSUM
2012-10-02 16:29:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we note that the -250 level will now be our key support to this current uptrend both on a horizontal pattern basis and as a natural support level
2012-10-02 16:29:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see how that all shakes out
2012-10-02 16:29:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a nice character move to the upside as well on the SPX breadth MCO
2012-10-02 16:30:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remember what we talked about on Thursday
2012-10-02 16:30:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we were likely to see one of two patterns emerge in the MCO
2012-10-02 16:30:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: either we were going to fully snapback to the zero line without any kind of rest
2012-10-02 16:30:36 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: why does the NDX MCSUM not look like a failure already?
2012-10-02 16:30:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would be a pattern of weakness
2012-10-02 16:30:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the other would be for a small move lower on Friday and then move to higher highs
2012-10-02 16:31:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would be the more bullish scenario
2012-10-02 16:31:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so good for the bulls
2012-10-02 16:31:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a failure in what regard Lew?
2012-10-02 16:31:52 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: moved back up, short of 250, retook out that bottom between
2012-10-02 16:32:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes, it did take out the zero line
2012-10-02 16:32:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until it takes out the lower range of support by the bulls prior to the bears "last stand" area
2012-10-02 16:32:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're not going to see anything that would produce a trend
2012-10-02 16:32:42 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx
2012-10-02 16:32:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now...
2012-10-02 16:33:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears have short term control by being below the zero line
2012-10-02 16:33:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until they can "overwhelm" those who are "buying the dip", we're locked in
2012-10-02 16:33:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus
2012-10-02 16:33:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have the broader COMPX in a much better bullish position that will hold things up (as it were)
2012-10-02 16:35:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the importance of the broader market showing better character is important, for if it was just the top 100 stocks of this marketplace holding things up, once they no longer do so, then a trending move to the downside would be created
2012-10-02 16:35:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it would be the path of least resistance
2012-10-02 16:35:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to be honest
2012-10-02 16:36:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to have a pause to refresh
2012-10-02 16:36:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the broader market continuing to show better strength than the top 100 weighted issues is probably a very bullish indication on how strong the underlying strength of this market really is
2012-10-02 16:37:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is probably because of the highly negative sentiment here
2012-10-02 16:37:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meanwhile
2012-10-02 16:37:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while many are looking at Apple as the proxy
2012-10-02 16:37:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyone notice Google these days?
2012-10-02 16:38:07 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure have, but it almost printed an outside reversal today-it was tight
2012-10-02 16:38:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember the conversation we had on Apple and how traders tend to focus on past leaders as their litmus test?
2012-10-02 16:38:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we are
2012-10-02 16:38:36 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2012-10-02 16:39:17 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: to be honest, I don't care much for the AAPL chart here-I doubt it leads anything up
2012-10-02 16:39:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what I think is amusing is how there is some much commentary that Apple can't keep going here
2012-10-02 16:40:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I remember that the same thing was said when they came out with that "toy radio" back in 2005
2012-10-02 16:40:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that it had no future...
2012-10-02 16:40:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what did they call it?
2012-10-02 16:40:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh yea
2012-10-02 16:40:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: an iPod
2012-10-02 16:40:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's the way I look at it
2012-10-02 16:40:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you're the biggest and best on the planet
2012-10-02 16:41:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're going to get the biggest and the best ideas proposed to you by others
2012-10-02 16:41:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like the market
2012-10-02 16:41:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would not continue to under-estimate the power of Apple
2012-10-02 16:41:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...
2012-10-02 16:42:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for those who may be leaning bearish here
2012-10-02 16:42:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: take any index chart
2012-10-02 16:42:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and apply a 20 day EMA
2012-10-02 16:42:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then take a look at how the current price pattern is holding in and around this same moving average
2012-10-02 16:42:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have talked about in the past
2012-10-02 16:43:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are 3 things that must happen to change the direction of a pattern from up to down
2012-10-02 16:43:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first a break of the 20 day EMA and find support on the 50 day EMA
2012-10-02 16:43:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: see a snapback to the 20 and fail to move back above it
2012-10-02 16:43:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then move down and through the 50 day EMA
2012-10-02 16:43:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until this happens folks this is just a consolidation
2012-10-02 16:44:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially when you have the MCSUM's above their zero lines
2012-10-02 16:44:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the SPX
2012-10-02 16:45:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have now cleared below the previous lows on the SPX breadth MCSUM as was our expectation from last week
2012-10-02 16:45:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we then continue to look for a full snapback to the zero line now before we're likely to see a turn to the upside
2012-10-02 16:46:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this also means that if we turn up before we reach zero
2012-10-02 16:46:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be another indication of the underlying strength of money flow at this time
2012-10-02 16:46:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: higher high on the OEX breadth MCO
2012-10-02 16:47:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a small point change mixed in there for good measure
2012-10-02 16:47:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the OEX breadth MCSUM at +250 support now
2012-10-02 16:47:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it wouldn't be too surprising if we see a continuation north on the OEX breadth MCO
2012-10-02 16:48:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's also interesting to note
2012-10-02 16:48:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the OEX is only, maybe, 8 points away from its high point in September
2012-10-02 16:48:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of this moving back and forth - all of this negative news from Europe and the US economy
2012-10-02 16:49:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and STILL we're less than 1% away from making new highs!
2012-10-02 16:49:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you would of thought we were 5% or more given all the negative sentiment of the last week
2012-10-02 16:50:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow...maybe 120 points!
2012-10-02 16:50:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can sneeze and do that these days
2012-10-02 16:50:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind
2012-10-02 16:50:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the higher the numbers in an index
2012-10-02 16:50:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the greater the amplitude in prices in just keeping up with the percentages
2012-10-02 16:51:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a 1% move at Dow 10,000 is 100 points
2012-10-02 16:51:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at 13,500 that same 1% move is 135 points
2012-10-02 16:54:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the higher we go
2012-10-02 16:54:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bigger the points
2012-10-02 16:54:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something that a lot of traders forget is that money is made more on the percentage moves than the nominal ones
2012-10-02 16:55:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the Dow breadth MCO components
2012-10-02 16:55:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're dead even there
2012-10-02 16:55:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: suggesting that both the 19 day EMA and 39 day EMA of the Dow A/D line is pretty much moving sideways right now
2012-10-02 16:56:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since control remains with the bulls on the MCSUM
2012-10-02 16:56:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once again, any surprises from these coil points will tend to go with those who are in control
2012-10-02 16:56:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if you're short here...keep a tight stop on your position
2012-10-02 16:56:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which should be a "hit and run" affair anyway
2012-10-02 16:57:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the overall MID data remains on the bearish side in spite of today's leadership
2012-10-02 16:58:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with both the MID breadth MCO and components below their zero lines
2012-10-02 16:58:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this pretty well explains yesterday's weakness as opposed to the Dow's better day
2012-10-02 16:58:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now, we'll call it a challenge of last weeks highs today on the MCO
2012-10-02 16:59:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the SML breadth MCO
2012-10-02 16:59:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this basket of stocks remains fairly weak here
2012-10-02 16:59:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we compare it to the MID, for example
2012-10-02 17:01:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking ruler to monitor on the SML breadth MCSUM
2012-10-02 17:01:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we closed today right on the rising bottoms line
2012-10-02 17:01:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see if the bulls belly up on Wednesday to hold this line or not
2012-10-02 17:02:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a small point change on the TM breadth MCO
2012-10-02 17:02:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the components above their zero lines
2012-10-02 17:02:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM breadth MCSUM has a reading of +508
2012-10-02 17:03:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that it's hard for the bears to muster up any kind of rhythm to the downside if the MCSUM is above its zero line
2012-10-02 17:03:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's near impossible to do so when its above the +500 level
2012-10-02 17:03:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2012-10-02 17:03:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the correction continues
2012-10-02 17:04:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the bears now starting to lose any grip they might of had last week
2012-10-02 17:04:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the broader markets showing good bullish structures that should continue to hold prices up from decaying much below last weeks price lows
2012-10-02 17:05:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: going to the volume McClellan's
2012-10-02 17:05:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see a small point chance in the NYSE CO volume MCO
2012-10-02 17:06:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it still remains on the "oversold" side with a reading today of -42
2012-10-02 17:06:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with the breadth side showing higher highs
2012-10-02 17:06:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation would be to see some further firmness on Wednesday
2012-10-02 17:07:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this would be very timely given that the CO NYSE volume MCSUM now has a reading at just above the +500 level at +549
2012-10-02 17:07:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so until we see a break below the +500 level
2012-10-02 17:07:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears will continue to find it hard going to the downside
2012-10-02 17:08:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much the same situation with the NYSE composite MCO and MCSUM
2012-10-02 17:08:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change...and a test of the +500 level
2012-10-02 17:09:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we seem to be in sync here so that's good news
2012-10-02 17:09:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also note that the components here are flat as well
2012-10-02 17:09:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one side is about to take control
2012-10-02 17:09:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one can't help but thinking as a contrarian
2012-10-02 17:09:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that with all the bad economic news of last week
2012-10-02 17:10:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that this week will probably show good economic news to balance things out
2012-10-02 17:10:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we might be looking back at last week as a merchandising point in being able to accumulate stock
2012-10-02 17:10:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one moment
2012-10-02 17:12:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: calls after hours...wonder if that's a good sign?
2012-10-02 17:12:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NASDAQ volume MCO
2012-10-02 17:12:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we note we that were able to move to higher highs
2012-10-02 17:13:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and showing good leadership to its breadth cousin
2012-10-02 17:13:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh wow
2012-10-02 17:13:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the NDX volume MCO!
2012-10-02 17:13:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here we are now back above the zero line
2012-10-02 17:13:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's up volume coming into this basket of stocks
2012-10-02 17:14:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that should help hold prices at current levels
2012-10-02 17:14:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know if I would be playing the Q's right now as a short
2012-10-02 17:14:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nope
2012-10-02 17:15:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and look at how the MCO moved to the zero line to help support the NDX volume MCSUM at the -250 level
2012-10-02 17:15:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: showing once again how important these 250 multiples are on the MCSUM
2012-10-02 17:15:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we have reached our downside objective that we were looking for, I think, two weeks ago
2012-10-02 17:16:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why it's always important to have some sort of plan when working the market technically
2012-10-02 17:16:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a blueprint...whatever
2012-10-02 17:16:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for it helps us understand what's to be expected
2012-10-02 17:17:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if it follows that plan faithfully, then our usual and customary expectation that happens after that is probably going to see follow through
2012-10-02 17:17:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if it DOESN'T follow through
2012-10-02 17:18:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this then tells us something that most won't recognize until its too late
2012-10-02 17:18:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can always be bullish or bearish
2012-10-02 17:18:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until you get the components that can create a trend in one direction or the other on your side
2012-10-02 17:18:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're just wasting your time...and money
2012-10-02 17:19:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change in the SPX volume MCO
2012-10-02 17:19:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and look at the complex pattern structure on the OEX volume MCO
2012-10-02 17:19:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we get this kind of triangle consolidation
2012-10-02 17:20:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it becomes highly likely (in this case) that this is a point in which will provide more important support later on
2012-10-02 17:20:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we should therefore move sharply higher out of this same consolidation area
2012-10-02 17:20:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we do indeed do that
2012-10-02 17:21:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then this will be our line in the sand area on any further correction that may come sooner or later
2012-10-02 17:21:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll watch this area over the next couple of days
2012-10-02 17:21:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: higher high in the Dow volume MCO
2012-10-02 17:21:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now snapback complete to the -50 level
2012-10-02 17:22:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given the that Dow volume MCO's 5% component continues to hug its zero line
2012-10-02 17:22:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the first move from this base is likely to be to the upside
2012-10-02 17:23:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a failure would then be a highly bearish event to which THEN the bears can hang their proverbial hats on
2012-10-02 17:23:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see how that sorts out
2012-10-02 17:23:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID volume MCO remains rather weak here
2012-10-02 17:23:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and still minimally "oversold"
2012-10-02 17:24:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should look to relieve this imbalance near term
2012-10-02 17:24:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML volume MCO is back to its -50 level
2012-10-02 17:25:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it wouldn't be too surprising to see it find some new vigor so that it can continue to move back to or towards its zero line
2012-10-02 17:25:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM volume MCO continues to lead its breadth cousin to the upside
2012-10-02 17:26:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the TM volume MCSUM is now testing its 250 multiple area..+250
2012-10-02 17:26:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-10-02 17:26:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if there was a time for the bulls to make a come back, this would be the time
2012-10-02 17:26:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have relieved much of any froth going into the mid September highs
2012-10-02 17:27:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the byers can now attempt to start another leg higher
2012-10-02 17:27:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if that's the case
2012-10-02 17:27:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we want to see all of the indices moving higher unison
2012-10-02 17:27:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with breadth and volume plurality expanding as well
2012-10-02 17:27:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't have to be a large ratio
2012-10-02 17:28:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just enough to keep things from losing support
2012-10-02 17:28:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's and VTO's are now neutral
2012-10-02 17:28:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one side can now take control
2012-10-02 17:28:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's remain minimally "oversold"
2012-10-02 17:29:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the odds suggest a push from the buyers
2012-10-02 17:29:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.15
2012-10-02 17:29:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OPEN 10 at 1.23
2012-10-02 17:29:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: deeply "oversold"
2012-10-02 17:29:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and making it nearly impossible for the sellers to move the market
2012-10-02 17:30:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .55
2012-10-02 17:30:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.08
2012-10-02 17:30:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "oversold"
2012-10-02 17:30:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN At .69
2012-10-02 17:30:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.15
2012-10-02 17:30:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: highly "oversold"
2012-10-02 17:31:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-10-02 17:31:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the marketplace with the best chance of significant pop here will be the NYSE
2012-10-02 17:31:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have now taken the round trip from being "overbought" on 9/14 and taken any froth out of the market
2012-10-02 17:32:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and still...we were able to do this and remain around 1% from the price highs
2012-10-02 17:32:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not bad
2012-10-02 17:32:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is the sign of strong trend
2012-10-02 17:32:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2012-10-02 17:33:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the flip side here
2012-10-02 17:33:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we were to see prices move below the lows of last week
2012-10-02 17:34:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with expanding negative breadth and volume plurality
2012-10-02 17:34:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be enough for a sell
2012-10-02 17:34:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because something different would be taking place in the face of a very bouyant flow of money
2012-10-02 17:35:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the likelihood of something like that happening being as remote as it is right now
2012-10-02 17:35:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would definitely take something "game changing" to warrant our banking our long positions and standing aside for more information
2012-10-02 17:37:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CBOE P/C ratio is very bearish here
2012-10-02 17:37:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX is neutral
2012-10-02 17:38:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the unweighted indices are leading the weights to the that's bullish
2012-10-02 17:39:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: dollar weighted volume looks good too except the NDX
2012-10-02 17:39:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I don't put much into secondary issues
2012-10-02 17:40:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2012-10-02 17:40:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...then I'm going to take off
2012-10-02 17:40:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days
2012-10-02 17:40:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see how things are looking on Thursday
2012-10-02 17:40:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2012-10-02 17:40:49 [Message] ErlcD -> Chat: Thanks

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