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Posts: 4,882
Reply with quote  #1 
2010-10-21 16:00:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2010-10-21 16:00:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2010-10-21 16:00:28 [Message] darris -> Chat: Good. Did you have a good day?
2010-10-21 16:00:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Super! Thanks.
2010-10-21 16:00:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I did! thanks for asking
2010-10-21 16:01:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how do you like the B wave so far Lew?
2010-10-21 16:01:07 [Message] darris -> Chat: Market internals bad, things getting sold, but at least the spx there is no price damage
2010-10-21 16:01:13 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: perfect!
2010-10-21 16:01:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a consolidation
2010-10-21 16:01:25 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: agreed
2010-10-21 16:01:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing to really worry about at this point
2010-10-21 16:01:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: seems someone let go of the basketball yesterday
2010-10-21 16:02:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: lol
2010-10-21 16:02:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just goes to show
2010-10-21 16:02:17 [Message] darris -> Chat: Oh, sorry. Awesome call Tuesday night Fib!
2010-10-21 16:02:23 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure was
2010-10-21 16:02:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that if you understand the MCSUM, and you apply the tool appropriately, it really does take the guess work out
2010-10-21 16:03:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thanks guys...but it wasn't as awesome as it was analytical...but I'll take the kudos
2010-10-21 16:03:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2010-10-21 16:03:45 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: well deserved!
2010-10-21 16:04:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2010-10-21 16:04:27 [Message] darris -> Chat: Let's get going, because tonight should be very interesting.
2010-10-21 16:05:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after bouncing off just below the zero line on Wednesday, the CO NYSE breadth MCO snapped back to back down to the zero line today
2010-10-21 16:05:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with this move back above zero, we continue to see higher MCSUM highs as well
2010-10-21 16:06:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the components are now back to a crossover buy signal and both remain above their zero line
2010-10-21 16:07:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the CO MCO bounced off its zero line, the composite NYSE breadth MCO snapped back up to its zero line on Wednesday, and moved a bit lower today
2010-10-21 16:07:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: close to a small point change technically with a difference of 4.63
2010-10-21 16:07:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we have other MCO's showing small point changes, we could be in for a dramatic move near term
2010-10-21 16:08:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unlike the CO breadth MCSUM, the composite breadth MCSUM continued to make lower lows over the last couple of days
2010-10-21 16:08:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this instructs us that the interest rate sensitive issues continue to be weak in here and this should show up in the Bond CEF A/D data this coming weekend
2010-10-21 16:09:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my guess here is that we'll wind up within the trend channel, but probably in or around the rising bottoms line when I get the data tomorrow
2010-10-21 16:10:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and unlike the common data, the components here remain on a cross over sell
2010-10-21 16:10:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so right away we're out of sync...which then suggests choppy behavior in front of us (like today)
2010-10-21 16:11:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also had a mid range close today
2010-10-21 16:11:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since we're not trending near term, I would take this as a sign of indecision at the current time
2010-10-21 16:12:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after bouncing higher on Wednesday, the NASDAQ breadth MCO is now back slightly below its zero line
2010-10-21 16:13:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the mid range close, we currently have an indecisive market place
2010-10-21 16:13:24 [Message] doc -> Chat: Hey Fib
2010-10-21 16:13:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where one side is about to take control
2010-10-21 16:13:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes sir
2010-10-21 16:13:42 [Message] doc -> Chat: This morning with the markets advancing nicely
2010-10-21 16:13:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes....
2010-10-21 16:13:49 [Message] doc -> Chat: I noticed that oil, gold and silver were all down
2010-10-21 16:14:17 [Message] doc -> Chat: sign of shrinking liquidity on a short term basis?
2010-10-21 16:14:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...I don't know if I would call it shrinking as I would call it pausing
2010-10-21 16:15:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: goodness, gracious...the precious metals were up at least 20% in 45 days
2010-10-21 16:15:03 [Message] doc -> Chat: okay, but that was a clue that the advance could come back
2010-10-21 16:15:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can't a market get a rest?
2010-10-21 16:15:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I believe you're maybe being too sensitive here to the correlation
2010-10-21 16:15:44 [Message] doc -> Chat: could be
2010-10-21 16:16:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: as long as it pays us both ways - it is free to roam, lol
2010-10-21 16:16:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: equities can keep rising with lower gold - we have seen this happen before many times
2010-10-21 16:16:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we don't want to do is "rely" on other markets to make our decisions for us
2010-10-21 16:17:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold is moving to the beat of different drummer...and a distant one as well
2010-10-21 16:17:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oil is not following's echoing it
2010-10-21 16:17:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not today...but what gold did 9 months ago
2010-10-21 16:17:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every market class moves under its own rhythm
2010-10-21 16:18:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes, however, it may look like its a concerted effort but it's really not
2010-10-21 16:18:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for equities right now we're "overbought"
2010-10-21 16:19:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're entitled to take a rest
2010-10-21 16:19:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially at a significant overhead resistance area
2010-10-21 16:19:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we do know is that money is starting to move to other classes
2010-10-21 16:19:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when gold sells will generally show up next in commodities
2010-10-21 16:20:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when commodities sell will generally wind up in the debt market
2010-10-21 16:20:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when the debt market sells moves in equities
2010-10-21 16:20:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what the real problem is right now is that the line is so blurred between this intermarket rotation that we don't really know where one begins from where one ends
2010-10-21 16:21:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are so super saturated that it's very tough to see money move in a way that would support a specific strategy
2010-10-21 16:22:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not to say that gold selling off here could be a precursor to a equity correction
2010-10-21 16:22:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it may not be the kind of correction that we might reasonably expect
2010-10-21 16:22:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at gold today - where did it close?
2010-10-21 16:23:18 [Message] doc -> Chat: 1325.60
2010-10-21 16:23:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just below the 20 day EMA
2010-10-21 16:23:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because it broke this support
2010-10-21 16:23:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the near term expectation there would be for a snapback to that line
2010-10-21 16:24:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and depending what it does from there, then we can make a educated guess as to how much air will need to be taken out in order for the price pattern to "relax" (for lack of a better word)
2010-10-21 16:24:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technically, longer term, it may need to snapback to the 1250 area
2010-10-21 16:25:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but will it?
2010-10-21 16:25:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well, on one hand, there's all this talk of QE2
2010-10-21 16:25:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that wouldn't hit gold until sometime next year
2010-10-21 16:25:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's out
2010-10-21 16:26:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what if the dollar continues to climb?
2010-10-21 16:26:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it too is "entitled" to correct
2010-10-21 16:26:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could all of this jawboning about currency wars have an effect on the decision making process of traders or not?
2010-10-21 16:26:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: does it matter?
2010-10-21 16:27:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't know
2010-10-21 16:27:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all I know is that as a chartist, the chart pattern of gold deserves a rest
2010-10-21 16:27:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which could be a decline or it could be with time
2010-10-21 16:27:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe both...but unlikely given the current fundamental circumstances
2010-10-21 16:27:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the jobs numbers are still very soft here and the FED uses this number as a guide
2010-10-21 16:28:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we know that they not in any real hurry to reduce the flow from the spigot right now and that will support gold
2010-10-21 16:28:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as far as the markets are concerned
2010-10-21 16:29:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the short term trend in disagreement with the intermediate term trend
2010-10-21 16:29:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we're likely to do is chop around
2010-10-21 16:29:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: down 185 one day - up 225 in the next two
2010-10-21 16:29:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the MCSUM is as high as it is
2010-10-21 16:29:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when a short term and intermediate term EMA's are as far as apart as they are
2010-10-21 16:30:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's very difficult for prices to trend lower
2010-10-21 16:30:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if there's going to be any problems with the short term direction of money flow
2010-10-21 16:31:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is going to be offset by the bigger, larger, degree of trend in which the intermediate reflects
2010-10-21 16:31:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: seems I'm rambling on...let's look at the NDX
2010-10-21 16:31:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the NDX breadth MCO with a reading of -4..pretty much neutral
2010-10-21 16:32:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we look at the NDX breadth MCSUM it's basically trending sideways
2010-10-21 16:32:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's no direction right now
2010-10-21 16:32:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds suggest that money should start to move out, but until we see proof of this, the bulls remain in control of the action, although, they all have their tongues hanging out...
2010-10-21 16:33:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they're tired bunch, but they're not out of it
2010-10-21 16:34:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the components on the NDX MCO remain on a cross over sell, but remain above their zero line suggesting corrective activity
2010-10-21 16:35:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the SPX breadth MCO
2010-10-21 16:35:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, if anything, there is tension on the tape, and we usually see this kind of thing in consolidation patterns - especially in triangles
2010-10-21 16:36:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far then...nothing seems out of character here
2010-10-21 16:36:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking a cursory view of the charts
2010-10-21 16:36:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and some have retraced .618...others only .382 (from Tuesday's decline) on a closing basis - line form
2010-10-21 16:37:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you know something?
2010-10-21 16:37:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we've done in the last two days is pretty much following the outline we talked about on Tuesday as it applies to Doc's cycle low
2010-10-21 16:38:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bounce on Wednesday...pull back on Thursday...undecided going into Friday
2010-10-21 16:38:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could this be then a cycle in which we move up and out from as opposed to one in which we move down into??
2010-10-21 16:38:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or did we accomplished the low on Tuesday?
2010-10-21 16:39:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both the internals, and the price pattern itself, still allow this to happen
2010-10-21 16:39:18 [Message] doc -> Chat: Unsure. For the shorter cycles, Tues looks good for the low
2010-10-21 16:39:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that could be enough time to finish the triangle
2010-10-21 16:39:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Elliott wise
2010-10-21 16:39:45 [Message] doc -> Chat: But for the longer cycles, the low could come in in the next week or two
2010-10-21 16:39:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: B done today, C for Friday, D for Monday, E for Tuesday, and up we go
2010-10-21 16:40:38 [Message] doc -> Chat: This late in the 4.5yr cycle, I would expect a 20wk low that you could see on the chart from across the room
2010-10-21 16:41:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not unless liquidity levels are so high that a cycle low can not be seen
2010-10-21 16:41:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's sort of like an Elliott impulsive structure where wave 2 happens so quickly that there's not enough time for it to form a pattern
2010-10-21 16:41:54 [Message] doc -> Chat: well liquidity levels are no higher than in August.
2010-10-21 16:42:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes they are
2010-10-21 16:42:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are higher
2010-10-21 16:42:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the amplitude of the trend might not be
2010-10-21 16:42:32 [Message] doc -> Chat: But that doesn't have to make a difference
2010-10-21 16:42:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what doesn't?
2010-10-21 16:42:52 [Message] doc -> Chat: Remember that in August liquidity wasn't the problem
2010-10-21 16:42:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it still isn't
2010-10-21 16:43:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: liquidity is measured by the A/D line not by oscillators
2010-10-21 16:43:23 [Message] doc -> Chat: We had tons of liquidity then and the markets moved down aggressively
2010-10-21 16:43:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they were over extended, yes, and they declined on the back of some heavily weighted stocks
2010-10-21 16:44:05 [Message] doc -> Chat: Same could happen now for a cycle low is all I'm saying
2010-10-21 16:44:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the liquidity quotient remained in a bullish configuration
2010-10-21 16:44:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could
2010-10-21 16:44:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not disagreeing
2010-10-21 16:44:33 [Message] doc -> Chat: So far, this is looking like a high level consolidation
2010-10-21 16:44:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's all I see
2010-10-21 16:44:47 [Message] doc -> Chat: one which you could move up and out of
2010-10-21 16:44:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2010-10-21 16:45:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: always good to look at both sides of a coin
2010-10-21 16:45:05 [Message] doc -> Chat: Let's see if any other clues on the charts
2010-10-21 16:45:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: okey dokey
2010-10-21 16:45:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCSUM is now closing in on the magical +750 level with a reading of +725 so a turn here might be expected
2010-10-21 16:46:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however, if we get new vigor and move sharply above this level, the April price highs will go with it
2010-10-21 16:46:53 [Message] doc -> Chat: Entering zone of secondary gap resistance
2010-10-21 16:47:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is like one side of a war party sneaking up on the enemy and being shrouded by bushes or rocks
2010-10-21 16:47:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: making their plans for battle to break through a stronghold
2010-10-21 16:47:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which reminds me - let me look at the NAAD
2010-10-21 16:48:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow..amazing
2010-10-21 16:48:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-10-21 16:48:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no wonder, huh?
2010-10-21 16:49:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're at the very point of the early May lows..the point in which everyone ran for cover in mass
2010-10-21 16:49:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will we break above this zone?
2010-10-21 16:50:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we as the short covering will be rampant
2010-10-21 16:50:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will the bears hold on and round up the bulls again??
2010-10-21 16:50:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...the trend strength of the NAAD is not nearly as strong as the NYAD
2010-10-21 16:51:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we only have a +400 reading on the MCSUM there
2010-10-21 16:51:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still not enough to break free from the bearish default which would come above the +500 level
2010-10-21 16:51:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: theory...we should continue to find resistance here and retrace
2010-10-21 16:51:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is another way of saying
2010-10-21 16:52:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless this market get new, fresh buying...right here, right now, we're likely to top out
2010-10-21 16:52:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's not all one way or the other here
2010-10-21 16:52:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are stuck in indecision mode for the near term
2010-10-21 16:53:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which direction we break will be out clue on how to handle the rest of October
2010-10-21 16:53:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also the NAAD line itself - sitting right on its rising bottoms line
2010-10-21 16:54:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing bearish there
2010-10-21 16:54:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact...we're having a second test in as many days
2010-10-21 16:54:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with today's pullback much shallower than Tuesday
2010-10-21 16:55:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something like this might suggest a lessening of selling pressure
2010-10-21 16:55:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if that's the case, then any new buying is likely to push prices higher
2010-10-21 16:55:42 [Message] doc -> Chat: You got 7wks of MCO above the zero line, history and probability suggests some time due for below - unless not
2010-10-21 16:56:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yea...but we have historically high liquidity levels
2010-10-21 16:56:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: things like that can really mess up timing
2010-10-21 16:56:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can't have a pullback...the tide can not go out...unless the water level recedes
2010-10-21 16:57:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how many times have we been looking for normal behavior over the last two months?
2010-10-21 16:57:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing customary to be seen
2010-10-21 16:58:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the MCSUM's just about all above the +500 level
2010-10-21 16:58:21 [Message] doc -> Chat: for sure.
2010-10-21 16:58:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even if we get a pullback, it WILL be shallow
2010-10-21 16:58:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's just the way it works
2010-10-21 16:58:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if you're itching to play short - hit and run for now
2010-10-21 16:59:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at Tuesday
2010-10-21 16:59:10 [Message] doc -> Chat: Not during the flash crash
2010-10-21 16:59:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how many shorts do you figure got clobbered over the last two days?
2010-10-21 16:59:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: different!
2010-10-21 16:59:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're comparing apples and pears Doc
2010-10-21 16:59:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: question - what was the reason why we had the flash crash
2010-10-21 17:00:17 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: hft's
2010-10-21 17:00:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that technical?
2010-10-21 17:00:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 750,000 ES contracts?
2010-10-21 17:00:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: don't know their programing - can't say
2010-10-21 17:00:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not technical
2010-10-21 17:01:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to have a blow like that, it's like someone being sucker punched
2010-10-21 17:01:19 [Message] doc -> Chat: Forget the flash, the market snapped back and continued to go even lower, much lower and it all started with the McSUMs over +500
2010-10-21 17:01:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you may go down...but you're likely to recover
2010-10-21 17:01:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sigh...I understand your concern
2010-10-21 17:01:52 [Message] doc -> Chat: The day after the flash we went even lower for the close
2010-10-21 17:02:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...
2010-10-21 17:02:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market took a hit
2010-10-21 17:02:07 [Message] doc -> Chat: just saying that anything can happen at anytime
2010-10-21 17:02:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course, but is it likely to do so?
2010-10-21 17:02:20 [Message] doc -> Chat: even with the mcsums high up there
2010-10-21 17:02:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how many flash crashes have you seen over the last 200 years?
2010-10-21 17:03:03 [Message] doc -> Chat: Again, not the flash crash but the May-July drop
2010-10-21 17:03:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if the flash crash didn't happen...would we have had a correction based on the data at the time?
2010-10-21 17:03:49 [Message] doc -> Chat: All started with the NYSI hovering for a month at +1200
2010-10-21 17:04:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no it didn't start...but the MCSUM topped out at +1200
2010-10-21 17:04:34 [Message] doc -> Chat: well you don't the the final July 1 low was due the the May 7th price action?
2010-10-21 17:04:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bottom line
2010-10-21 17:04:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't expect anything like we saw in the spring to take place now
2010-10-21 17:05:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're talking exceptions here - they happen
2010-10-21 17:05:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is not a perfect entity
2010-10-21 17:05:26 [Message] doc -> Chat: We live in different times
2010-10-21 17:05:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we always do
2010-10-21 17:05:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was different in the 1950's than it was in the 1930's
2010-10-21 17:05:50 [Message] doc -> Chat: Like you said, we've had a lot of exceptions lately
2010-10-21 17:06:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was different in the 1980's than it was in the 1960's
2010-10-21 17:06:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wouldn't say a lot - the market has been basically doing nothing for the last 6 months
2010-10-21 17:06:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was up close to 60% from March 09 to April 10 and then took back only 15%?
2010-10-21 17:07:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and did so quickly enough that it brought the level of anxiety to levels not seen since the actual 09 lows?
2010-10-21 17:07:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and did all this with liquidity levels at record levels?
2010-10-21 17:07:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and coming from every corner of the globe
2010-10-21 17:08:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: being controlled by irresponsible politicians?
2010-10-21 17:08:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good golly
2010-10-21 17:08:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sigh
2010-10-21 17:08:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I understand your point
2010-10-21 17:08:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's duly noted
2010-10-21 17:08:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but technically
2010-10-21 17:08:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's nothing out there that is suggesting anything like the spring slip
2010-10-21 17:09:08 [Message] doc -> Chat: all I'm saying is that the MCSUM being this high is no guarantee that we can't have a meaningful drop, not that I am expecting one.
2010-10-21 17:09:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did I mention guarantee?
2010-10-21 17:09:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're dealing with probability and outcome
2010-10-21 17:09:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's all
2010-10-21 17:09:53 [Message] doc -> Chat: Just like when the NASDAQ OPEN 10 was 0.65 the NASDAQ should have taken a breather, but it just kept going
2010-10-21 17:10:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did it?
2010-10-21 17:10:06 [Message] doc -> Chat: in mid Sept
2010-10-21 17:10:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or did certain higher weighted issues that make up the index continue to go higher?
2010-10-21 17:10:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AAPL
2010-10-21 17:10:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: GOOG
2010-10-21 17:10:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: shrug
2010-10-21 17:11:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Open 10 measures the broad market not a handful
2010-10-21 17:11:12 [Message] doc -> Chat: Well I bet the open 10 of the NDX was also quite low at the time but we don't have that measure
2010-10-21 17:11:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: might be a good assumption
2010-10-21 17:11:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the NDX is 100 stocks
2010-10-21 17:11:47 [Message] doc -> Chat: anyway, not to be argumentative, lets go on
2010-10-21 17:12:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the top 10 caps carry 90% of the entire weight
2010-10-21 17:12:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I know Doc
2010-10-21 17:12:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're all frustrated and annoyed
2010-10-21 17:12:33 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: structure here says small correction, but my thought is that changes to a bit larger-not a crash, but more the size of the low doc suspects is expected from his Hurst work after the next high-momentum has slowed considerably, twt
2010-10-21 17:12:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is what the market is trying to do...
2010-10-21 17:13:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the idea of a crash like event is very unlikely
2010-10-21 17:13:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it just can't be done right now
2010-10-21 17:13:28 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: structure says NO
2010-10-21 17:13:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a technician...I can't change the rules
2010-10-21 17:13:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is what it is
2010-10-21 17:14:04 [Message] doc -> Chat: I remember making that exact same point on May 6 to a post by someone on TT and the next day it happened.
2010-10-21 17:14:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what..?
2010-10-21 17:14:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: someone hit the wrong key on a keyboard?
2010-10-21 17:14:28 [Message] doc -> Chat: A crash call on May 6, I said no way
2010-10-21 17:14:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you were right!
2010-10-21 17:14:49 [Message] doc -> Chat: didn't look that way
2010-10-21 17:14:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sigh
2010-10-21 17:14:58 [Message] doc -> Chat: I was shaking my head
2010-10-21 17:15:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you had to do it again, with the very same information, would you say the same thing knowing what you know happened?
2010-10-21 17:15:35 [Message] doc -> Chat: yes
2010-10-21 17:15:44 [Message] doc -> Chat: with a disclaimer
2010-10-21 17:15:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so why are you second guessing yourself
2010-10-21 17:15:56 [Message] doc -> Chat: I'm not
2010-10-21 17:16:07 [Message] doc -> Chat: I'm just pointing out the disclaimer, lol
2010-10-21 17:16:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will bet you any amount of money, that with the same set of circumstances, that you will never see what happened in the spring happen again
2010-10-21 17:16:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was an wasn't technical
2010-10-21 17:16:35 [Message] doc -> Chat: I hope not
2010-10-21 17:16:45 [Message] doc -> Chat: a lot of innocent people got hurt that day
2010-10-21 17:16:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what was technical, is that after the flash crash, we rallied almost 70% in two days!
2010-10-21 17:17:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was a slip - it happens
2010-10-21 17:17:29 [Message] doc -> Chat: and that rally was a great short
2010-10-21 17:17:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this slip was bigger than most
2010-10-21 17:17:59 [Message] doc -> Chat: now, what is the market going to do from here
2010-10-21 17:18:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was because the technical damage done, because of a keystroke error, was so destructive that the market needed to regroup
2010-10-21 17:18:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't know
2010-10-21 17:18:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have no idea what the market is going to do
2010-10-21 17:18:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I know...we'll crash tomorrow!!
2010-10-21 17:18:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how reasonable is that?
2010-10-21 17:18:38 [Message] doc -> Chat: lol
2010-10-21 17:19:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's go on...time is fleeting
2010-10-21 17:19:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2010-10-21 17:19:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I"m going to say we're going to crash every day we chat
2010-10-21 17:19:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that way I will never be wrong - just "off"
2010-10-21 17:19:46 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: lol
2010-10-21 17:19:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sigh...
2010-10-21 17:20:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: stops are for a purpose folks
2010-10-21 17:20:28 [Message] doc -> Chat: I'm just wondering if there will be a tradable correction to go long into, for heavens sake?
2010-10-21 17:20:36 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: don't you dare start trying to hit grand slams Dave, you've been nailing the base hits!
2010-10-21 17:20:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm just sorry that we didn't have our chats in March and April
2010-10-21 17:21:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we all would have been prepared
2010-10-21 17:21:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we shouldn't worry about things that come out of from under the bed
2010-10-21 17:21:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you'll never have a good nights sleep
2010-10-21 17:22:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even if you make sure everything's off in your house, and the doors and windows are locked, you can have or a fire or a break in
2010-10-21 17:22:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but is it likely to happen?
2010-10-21 17:22:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope
2010-10-21 17:22:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but from time to time it might
2010-10-21 17:23:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: May was a "might" - it happens - but not all the time
2010-10-21 17:23:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCSUM now has a reading of +765
2010-10-21 17:24:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the OEX breadth MCO continued to add to yesterday's move higher
2010-10-21 17:24:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it now has reached its last reaction high which should provide near term resistance
2010-10-21 17:24:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this also means that if it's able to break above it, once again, we would be in the clear
2010-10-21 17:25:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and even more importantly, an upside break would suggest that the OEX breadth MCSUM is going to make a attempt to move to the +1000 level
2010-10-21 17:25:33 [Message] doc -> Chat: it is also right at the downtrend line
2010-10-21 17:25:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same thing with the Dow data - only 250 data points higher
2010-10-21 17:26:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after bouncing off the longer and stronger rising bottoms line?
2010-10-21 17:26:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the longer line of trend is always the stronger line
2010-10-21 17:26:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are in a triangle, remember?
2010-10-21 17:26:54 [Message] doc -> Chat: i was implying that a move up to break above the DTL would be bullish
2010-10-21 17:27:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh yes...of course - sorry
2010-10-21 17:27:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I wanted to stress our discussion we had regarding the rising trend line from May we had on Tuesday
2010-10-21 17:27:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that one held (so far)
2010-10-21 17:28:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: MID breadth MCSUM now has a reading of +744
2010-10-21 17:28:35 [Message] doc -> Chat: DOW had benefit of good earnings today on a couple of issues, CAT I think
2010-10-21 17:28:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so many +750's right now
2010-10-21 17:28:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: makes's a multinational...the weaker dollar is helping these issues
2010-10-21 17:29:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why the markets rallied in September
2010-10-21 17:29:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they saw a weaker dollar - knew that the high caps have a global influence
2010-10-21 17:29:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lots of all time highs - IBM
2010-10-21 17:29:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BA (I think)
2010-10-21 17:30:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: IBM at all time highs?
2010-10-21 17:30:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: has the market ever topped with IBM at all time highs?
2010-10-21 17:30:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'll answer that one for you - NO
2010-10-21 17:30:25 [Message] doc -> Chat: don't know about today, but they dropped after earning came out
2010-10-21 17:30:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so did AAPL
2010-10-21 17:30:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are a nervous Nellie here
2010-10-21 17:31:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did we not had the discussion last Thursday as this being possible after the GOOG announcement?
2010-10-21 17:31:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: weren't here
2010-10-21 17:31:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway - deep breath - exhale
2010-10-21 17:32:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything is gonna be OK...
2010-10-21 17:32:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds of the market moving lower than 5% right now is maybe single digits
2010-10-21 17:32:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe in two weeks that will be different
2010-10-21 17:32:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's just not doable
2010-10-21 17:33:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at the same time, when the MCSUM gets as high as it is, it becomes more and more difficult for breadth of market to stronger plurality numbers
2010-10-21 17:34:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why the breadth numbers of late look tired
2010-10-21 17:34:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are over extended
2010-10-21 17:34:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at Tuesday - what was breadth?
2010-10-21 17:35:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 6:1 negative?
2010-10-21 17:35:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the very next day 4:1 positive
2010-10-21 17:35:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since we're so extended
2010-10-21 17:35:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't take as much "thrust" to move to higher price highs
2010-10-21 17:35:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the shuttle is already in earth orbit
2010-10-21 17:36:19 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: spx made new high today
2010-10-21 17:36:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCO seems to snapping back to its zero line
2010-10-21 17:36:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCSUM now has a reading above +500
2010-10-21 17:37:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: components here remain in a bullish configuration
2010-10-21 17:38:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing yet showing a breakdown there
2010-10-21 17:38:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: total market breadth MCO is still below its zero line
2010-10-21 17:39:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM breadth MCSUM looks to be tracing out an inverted ledge
2010-10-21 17:39:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if that's the case, we should power higher by the time we see each other again on Tuesday
2010-10-21 17:39:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but being it's a ledge, this will likely be the last move higher for this particular MCSUM sequence
2010-10-21 17:40:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one last thing that needs to be addressed
2010-10-21 17:40:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the various price patterns move to new highs
2010-10-21 17:40:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking out their April top
2010-10-21 17:40:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the various MCSUM's continue to diverge with the April period
2010-10-21 17:41:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this could be a longer term problem that will need to be addressed
2010-10-21 17:41:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until this happens though it's just something to be aware of
2010-10-21 17:41:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP data continues to lead the way higher - now up 20% from our buy signal in August
2010-10-21 17:43:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it looks like we're ready now to take out the 15 level on the XLF
2010-10-21 17:43:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we need is for one or two days of upside gap expansion on the XLF breadth MCSUM and that should do it
2010-10-21 17:43:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with all of the bearish sentiment for this's primed
2010-10-21 17:44:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like a hammer on BAC - and I don't know of anyone bullish on BAC right now
2010-10-21 17:44:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: C declared a dividend on their preferred stock yesterday
2010-10-21 17:45:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so things may not be as bad as the media and Washington are playing it
2010-10-21 17:45:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow - the XLV breadth MXCSUM is now challenging its 52 week highs at the +1000 level
2010-10-21 17:46:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: internals remain very strong there
2010-10-21 17:46:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like you might get a "health care" reprieve Doc!
2010-10-21 17:46:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ah oh - what is this?!
2010-10-21 17:46:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI is waking up
2010-10-21 17:47:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any follow through there will break the XLI breadth MCSUM above the +500 level and that would be enough to push both the INDU and the TRAN to above their April price highs
2010-10-21 17:48:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do not underestimate the power of this market folks
2010-10-21 17:48:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it isn't doing what it should correctionally
2010-10-21 17:48:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it seems to be made up of Teflon
2010-10-21 17:49:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB ETF remains above its April highs...consolidating
2010-10-21 17:49:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this market is waiting for something to launch
2010-10-21 17:49:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's trying its darnedest to shake the tree of the weak hands here
2010-10-21 17:50:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a one day hard down can do what it might take a week to do if the market is in a hurry
2010-10-21 17:50:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whew - small point change on the XLK breadth MCO
2010-10-21 17:50:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLK breadth MCSUM is now approaching its 52 week highs
2010-10-21 17:50:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to be honest here, if I were afraid of something happening in the market, I would be afraid on missing out on a bullish move than I would be a bearish one
2010-10-21 17:51:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's a lot of power under the surface right now
2010-10-21 17:51:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you add some really nasty sentiment. and the possibility of Washington being in limbo for 2 years, you have 1995/1996 all over again
2010-10-21 17:52:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh boy...
2010-10-21 17:52:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and tell me folks when was the last time the market topped with the Utilities leading higher?
2010-10-21 17:53:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the close up of the XLU breadth MCSUM
2010-10-21 17:53:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: streaking higher now
2010-10-21 17:53:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would mean that lower rates will remain
2010-10-21 17:54:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means cheap money
2010-10-21 17:54:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means more liquidity
2010-10-21 17:54:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means it has to go somewhere
2010-10-21 17:54:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did you know...
2010-10-21 17:54:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the AT&T has a 6% dividend yield?
2010-10-21 17:55:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why would you invest in debt?
2010-10-21 17:55:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: commodities?
2010-10-21 17:55:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: talking the average Joe and Jane - 401's and all
2010-10-21 17:55:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the cumulative TICK and TICKQ continue to move to unbelievable heights
2010-10-21 17:56:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should only WISH for another flash crash just to load up!
2010-10-21 17:56:54 [Message] doc -> Chat: I'm NOT looking for a huge move down Dave. I'm wondering if we are going to get a stinkin 3-4% move down that might present a better buying opportunity than chasing it right here. 4% would take us down to the early August plateau at 1125 area.
2010-10-21 17:56:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are above their zero lines
2010-10-21 17:57:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me ask you something
2010-10-21 17:57:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we had a stinking 3-4% move would you be brave enough to step up?
2010-10-21 17:57:42 [Message] doc -> Chat: good question
2010-10-21 17:57:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tough question
2010-10-21 17:57:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because as sure as I'm sitting here, unless you have the technical fortitude to react to something like this, you're not likely to do so because...of...look what happened in May (for example)
2010-10-21 17:58:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's tough to buy when the market gets slaughtered
2010-10-21 17:59:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would be nice, but when push comes to shove, emotionally, we're not likely to scoop up a "gimme"
2010-10-21 18:00:16 [Message] doc -> Chat: Agreed, but given the bullish technicals, it would FEEL like buying oversold in a bullish trend, rather then buying at the highs hoping we keep going
2010-10-21 18:00:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: stop...
2010-10-21 18:00:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hold on
2010-10-21 18:00:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how did you FEEL about the market when it was down 2% on Tuesday?
2010-10-21 18:00:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was it a buy?
2010-10-21 18:01:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or did it keep you on the fence looking for more?
2010-10-21 18:01:12 [Message] doc -> Chat: cyclically I was waiting for more, so no
2010-10-21 18:01:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what if the market accelerates higher now that its taken out all of the stops on the shorts that were taken on Tuesday?
2010-10-21 18:02:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: would you still be looking for your cycle low?
2010-10-21 18:02:08 [Message] doc -> Chat: that would be the train leaving the station
2010-10-21 18:02:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is it?
2010-10-21 18:02:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCSUM's as high as they are?
2010-10-21 18:02:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's what happens with the MCSUM's are at extremes
2010-10-21 18:03:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like when they get above the +750 or -750 levels
2010-10-21 18:03:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trend is so strong that any counter trend can only find a small window of opportunity
2010-10-21 18:03:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it hits it right, it can be like an air pocket when you're flying
2010-10-21 18:04:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: your going fine all along...smooth air...and then all of dip
2010-10-21 18:04:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you still have control - you're still are on course
2010-10-21 18:04:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what happened in May was a severe air pocket
2010-10-21 18:05:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the plane tried to adjust it used more fuel than it had to make it to its ultimate destination
2010-10-21 18:05:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so it flew lower
2010-10-21 18:05:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and lower
2010-10-21 18:05:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bring the point
2010-10-21 18:05:45 [Message] tracca -> Chat: Fib, do you work with ITBM/ITVM of the Decision Point?
2010-10-21 18:06:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you didn't quite make it to your needed to land before your target
2010-10-21 18:06:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it happens
2010-10-21 18:06:11 [Message] doc -> Chat: if I rely on the short cycles, we had the bottom and up we go out of here. Had we had a nice 3-4% drop over a few days into this Wed-Thurs, I would have bought in. We got an intraday drop and because the weekly cycles allow for the low to come in next week or even the one after, I'm waiting
2010-10-21 18:06:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you weren't wrong in making your statement in May Doc
2010-10-21 18:06:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can make the same forecast now..and you will be correct in your forecast
2010-10-21 18:07:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's fine
2010-10-21 18:07:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: waiting is good
2010-10-21 18:07:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until something is "proven otherwise", it's always best to remain with those who have the power
2010-10-21 18:07:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as far as the ITBM and ITVM are concerned
2010-10-21 18:08:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are just another way of measuring breadth and alternate means than that of the MCSUM
2010-10-21 18:08:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they basically give you the same information but in slightly different format
2010-10-21 18:08:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they don't give you the insight or nuances that the McClellan tools give you
2010-10-21 18:08:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not even close
2010-10-21 18:09:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are neutral
2010-10-21 18:09:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's are bullish
2010-10-21 18:09:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.19
2010-10-21 18:09:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.12 - still "oversold"
2010-10-21 18:10:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .61
2010-10-21 18:10:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 0.87
2010-10-21 18:10:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "neutral"
2010-10-21 18:10:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what would be nice is if we can get the NASDAQ Open 10 to find a way for it get "oversold" again as it did a couple of weeks ago while the NYSE Open 10 remained "oversold"
2010-10-21 18:11:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .82
2010-10-21 18:11:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .95
2010-10-21 18:11:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2010-10-21 18:11:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the nod continues to remain with the bulls
2010-10-21 18:11:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the Open 10 still "oversold"
2010-10-21 18:12:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any surprises will turn out to be to the upside
2010-10-21 18:12:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of our upside targets given by the MCO back in July have now been met
2010-10-21 18:12:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, if anything, we should continue to find resistance at the April price highs by and large
2010-10-21 18:13:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if, however, the various MCO's can move to higher highs
2010-10-21 18:13:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might be able to get new upside price objectives
2010-10-21 18:13:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but for now...we should expect to remain indecisive when all is said and done
2010-10-21 18:13:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2010-10-21 18:13:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thank you Doc for the discussion
2010-10-21 18:14:04 [Message] doc -> Chat: You have upside objectives already based on chart patterns
2010-10-21 18:14:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't...not based on the MCO
2010-10-21 18:14:22 [Message] doc -> Chat: on your weekly breadth review
2010-10-21 18:14:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: different
2010-10-21 18:14:31 [Message] doc -> Chat: yes
2010-10-21 18:14:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I just don't have enough information based on the MCO
2010-10-21 18:14:54 [Message] doc -> Chat: which do you find more powerful the chart patterns or the mco targets?
2010-10-21 18:15:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they have their own purposes
2010-10-21 18:15:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO measures the short term trend of the A/D line
2010-10-21 18:15:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: chart patterns are the cart
2010-10-21 18:15:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices can not go anywhere without a stallion leading the way
2010-10-21 18:16:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it all works together
2010-10-21 18:16:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the primary is the A/D line
2010-10-21 18:16:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we use the McClellan's to measure its strength of its direction
2010-10-21 18:17:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this strength then tells us as to whether specific chart patterns will be able to reach objectives or not
2010-10-21 18:17:34 [Message] doc -> Chat: so the higher highs based on the cart in your weekly breadth review, isn't yet confirmed by the stallion, yet
2010-10-21 18:17:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is...but...
2010-10-21 18:17:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ummmm
2010-10-21 18:18:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO measures the thrust of money
2010-10-21 18:18:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once that thrust is done
2010-10-21 18:18:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (in this case...the MCO targets)
2010-10-21 18:18:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you then have the momentum of this thrust still yet to come
2010-10-21 18:18:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is what makes prices move higher
2010-10-21 18:18:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and diverge with this same lack of thrust
2010-10-21 18:19:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can talk about this on Tuesday
2010-10-21 18:19:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fair?
2010-10-21 18:19:17 [Message] doc -> Chat: Very nice explanation. Thanks for the discussion today.
2010-10-21 18:19:20 [Message] doc -> Chat: Fair
2010-10-21 18:19:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a problem
2010-10-21 18:19:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...everyone have a great weekend
2010-10-21 18:19:40 [Message] doc -> Chat: you too
2010-10-21 18:19:40 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ditto, thx!
2010-10-21 18:19:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see what the market has to give us on Tuesday
2010-10-21 18:19:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2010-10-21 18:19:54 [Message] doc -> Chat: Hi darris
2010-10-21 18:20:00 [Message] darris -> Chat: Thanks, Dave. We should continue to give consideration of how much of our assets should be fully or partially invested here. thanks
2010-10-21 18:20:32 [Message] darris -> Chat: Hello doc. You doing well?
2010-10-21 18:20:44 [Message] doc -> Chat: yup, and you?
2010-10-21 18:21:47 [Message] darris -> Chat: Had a good day. I am worried as well here. real money is flowing negatively, and real money sentiment, proshares, is just about done covering all their shorts
2010-10-21 18:23:00 [Message] darris -> Chat: We do not have to have another crash, but we should be seeing some type of correction for more than a few hours here real soon. Real money flows did not recover today as the spx price index would imply
2010-10-21 18:23:26 [Message] darris -> Chat: Every desk hit the sell button on the RUT all at once today, LOL
2010-10-21 18:23:38 [Message] doc -> Chat: Its hard to believe that after 7 wks rallying, we won't even get a decent MCO flag coinciding with the Hurst 20wk low, which is why I leave open the possibility that it is just around the corner
2010-10-21 18:24:41 [Message] darris -> Chat: The good news is that for over a year, we have seen some decent end of month sell offs that get reversed at the beginning of the month. We still have time here in October.
2010-10-21 18:25:40 [Message] doc -> Chat: Last two days of Oct great for buying small caps historically for a few day run
2010-10-21 18:26:09 [Message] doc -> Chat: then again over T-giving and the last 7 days of the year
2010-10-21 18:26:34 [Message] darris -> Chat: Like was mentioned here, a 4-6% sell off would be appropriate, and in some cases healthy. Having a build up of shorts at Direxion, Proshares, and Rydex is always a good back drop to power higher and higher than a previous high.
2010-10-21 18:28:01 [Message] doc -> Chat: yes, but the failure to do so over the past 3 wks has created the emotional state where one is nearly ready to throw in the towel and say that it just isn't going to happen.
2010-10-21 18:28:17 [Message] darris -> Chat: I think we are building a nice top, and risk aversion is all that needs to be taken into consideration.
2010-10-21 18:28:18 [Message] doc -> Chat: and that is exactly when it usually happens
2010-10-21 18:28:27 [Message] darris -> Chat: doc, that is what happened in April this year
2010-10-21 18:29:21 [Message] doc -> Chat: So sentiment wise and shorts wise, there may not be the fuel for a powerful move up, UNLESS fresh buying comes in.
2010-10-21 18:29:48 [Message] darris -> Chat: a correction like the January 2010 top might be a better example than the May crash
2010-10-21 18:30:11 [Message] doc -> Chat: and I think Fib eluded to that in his review of the NAAD chart
2010-10-21 18:30:20 [Message] doc -> Chat: Absolutely!
2010-10-21 18:31:15 [Message] doc -> Chat: I in no way suggested that we are set up for one. I did suggest that we could get a rapid move down due to the timing of the cycle low
2010-10-21 18:31:26 [Message] doc -> Chat: that is all, nothing about a crash
2010-10-21 18:31:35 [Message] darris -> Chat: The price action as we have moved the spx from 1155 to 1185 was floated by all the short covering I have been seeing at Rydex, proshares, and Direxion. They started re-shorting too early in late September, and had to go thru an unexpected covering period. This should be ending soon.
2010-10-21 18:32:16 [Message] doc -> Chat: Bet they started shorting around 1160-70 area
2010-10-21 18:32:56 [Message] doc -> Chat: I think the move up this am washed out a bunch of shorts
2010-10-21 18:33:14 [Message] darris -> Chat: My money flows have been drifting lower, and are now starting to head straight down. at the August bottom my money flows were very positive divergent because of the merger and acquisitions that were occurring. Now, there are a lot of big stocks being sold. In my mind, the money flows are doing the exact opposite of the august bottom here. it just takes time
2010-10-21 18:33:49 [Message] doc -> Chat: Would they show the same if you took BAC out?
2010-10-21 18:35:19 [Message] doc -> Chat: In the last 6 trading sessions, you've had 5 days of negative MF with double to triple the usual volume and 4 of those days over 500,000,000 shares
2010-10-21 18:35:41 [Message] darris -> Chat: bac had net negative mf of 124 million today, so on the nyse commons only that was about half of the negative money flow
2010-10-21 18:36:11 [Message] doc -> Chat: Today was only 318,000,000 shares
2010-10-21 18:36:32 [Message] doc -> Chat: so the effect on the other 4 days would have been much greater
2010-10-21 18:37:17 [Message] doc -> Chat: you might want to check your data without BAC, or at least mentally account for its contribution to the total neg MF since last Thursday
2010-10-21 18:37:33 [Message] darris -> Chat: The real issue is the momentum of the mf. it is turning down on the composite of any index, but in a smoothed way. Google and apple have added great amount of net positive money flow to the overall indexes they are apart of
2010-10-21 18:37:52 [Message] doc -> Chat: true
2010-10-21 18:40:26 [Message] darris -> Chat: TRINs have been rising rapidly on many indexes. TRINS were consistently low at the August bottom
2010-10-21 18:40:49 [Message] darris -> Chat: On Wed, and because of BAC, the Dow trin was 12
2010-10-21 18:42:02 [Message] doc -> Chat: Just saying, might check and see what part of the neg MF BAC has contrib to the drift down you are seeing
2010-10-21 18:42:10 [Message] tracca -> Chat: In down actions NYT has become my "tip" leading stock due to its weakness compared to the general market, NYT leads SPX follwows
2010-10-21 18:42:52 [Message] doc -> Chat: GE too
2010-10-21 18:42:57 [Message] doc -> Chat: GE often leads
2010-10-21 18:43:34 [Message] doc -> Chat: GE down 8.5% over 5 days
2010-10-21 18:44:43 [Message] darris -> Chat: Anyway, everyone has there own money management limits, so they should just be aware that the risks of continued upside without some type of correction are a bit higher than normal right now. I am a trader, so I do not normally invest or hold positions very long, so my views are primarily biased towards quicker trades here, or moving more trades towards commodities.
2010-10-21 18:45:42 [Message] doc -> Chat: Good points Darris. Thanks for the discuss
2010-10-21 18:45:54 [Message] tracca -> Chat: Thank you both again.
2010-10-21 18:46:02 [Message] doc -> Chat: Got to get back to finishing up work
2010-10-21 18:46:11 [Message] doc -> Chat: See you all later
2010-10-21 18:46:22 [Message] tracca -> Chat: Take care
2010-10-21 18:46:23 [Message] darris -> Chat: on the money flow contributions, I did an extensive study of mf when Fannie Mae, Freddy Mac, AIG, and cit were making up 50% or more of the money flow moves of the nyse about a year or so ago. I learned to continue to focus on the composite. BAC is just one stock. It may or may not be a canary in the coal mine
2010-10-21 18:46:35 [Message] darris -> Chat: You guys have a good evening, and see you next week
2010-10-21 18:46:47 [Message] tracca -> Chat: you too
2010-10-21 18:46:50 [Message] doc -> Chat: I was wondering if that might still be the case
2010-10-21 18:47:04 [Message] doc -> Chat: one stock, but representing a systemic problem
2010-10-21 18:47:13 [Message] doc -> Chat: this case, foreclosure mess
2010-10-21 18:47:38 [Message] doc -> Chat: canary in the coal mine
2010-10-21 18:47:53 [Message] darris -> Chat: Same goes in late august. why did positive mf's of just a few stocks end up giving an early indication of a bottom???!!!
2010-10-21 18:48:14 [Message] darris -> Chat: The ones that were being bought out. M&A activity
2010-10-21 18:48:42 [Message] darris -> Chat: Dead canary in the coal mine, LOL
2010-10-21 18:48:56 [Message] doc -> Chat: WE were lucky in August bottom
2010-10-21 18:49:09 [Message] doc -> Chat: that the broad market bottomed a bit earlier
2010-10-21 18:49:15 [Message] doc -> Chat: than the bigcap
2010-10-21 18:49:22 [Message] doc -> Chat: evidence, RUT
2010-10-21 18:49:36 [Message] doc -> Chat: bottomed on the first of the three SPX spikes down
2010-10-21 18:49:49 [Message] doc -> Chat: and that would show up in the EW MF
2010-10-21 18:49:51 [Message] darris -> Chat: and what is the rut doing now
2010-10-21 18:50:02 [Message] doc -> Chat: leading to the downside?
2010-10-21 18:50:13 [Message] darris -> Chat: lower highs against higher highs on the spx
2010-10-21 18:50:18 [Message] doc -> Chat: lower low in fact
2010-10-21 18:50:50 [Message] doc -> Chat: actually just tested the low, sorry
2010-10-21 18:50:56 [Message] doc -> Chat: semi was happy bout that
2010-10-21 18:52:14 [Message] darris -> Chat: It is all about protecting capital, and continuing to increase our net worth. Buy low, and sell high, but not the bottom or top tick
2010-10-21 18:52:54 [Message] darris -> Chat: Take care, and have a good evening. Good night
2010-10-21 18:53:00 [Message] doc -> Chat: good night

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