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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2008-10-02 19:02:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good day
2008-10-02 19:02:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how is everyone?
2008-10-02 19:03:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (besides being numb)
2008-10-02 19:03:24 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: well....thank you
2008-10-02 19:03:39 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: finding sea legs ... too turbulent these days
2008-10-02 19:03:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...whatcha folks think?
2008-10-02 19:04:21 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Interesting MCOs tonite
2008-10-02 19:05:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...any questions or comments before we get started?
2008-10-02 19:07:35 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: My cumulative tick gave me an IT buy signal today.
2008-10-02 19:08:38 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: expect 10300 in Dow
2008-10-02 19:08:58 [Message] ron -> Main Room: the fear is out there, time to buy some say, but I do not have the fortitude to do so
2008-10-02 19:10:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...some comments here
2008-10-02 19:10:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: today felt like 10/15/87
2008-10-02 19:10:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the market is now at a do or die point
2008-10-02 19:11:08 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I think it will do...then die.....fwiw
2008-10-02 19:11:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: many of the divergences we have been talking about over the last several weeks are being sorely tested, and frankly, with the economic background right now, we really can go either way
2008-10-02 19:12:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it wouldn't take much now to break the back of the bull
2008-10-02 19:12:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: on the bright side, today's breadth plurality wasn't as bad as Monday's
2008-10-02 19:13:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: volume trends remain buoyant
2008-10-02 19:13:12 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: AAPL..when examining 2006 to 2007 weekly closes...a price ledge sits near $100...vs. this week's low of 100 and today's close of 100.10 ... http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=AAPL&p=W&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p45013320210
2008-10-02 19:13:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the level of anxiety now is so thick you can cut it with the proverbial knife
2008-10-02 19:13:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a bad jobs data, along with hanky panky in the House, and this level could rise to a level in which things can fall apart very quickly
2008-10-02 19:14:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: our biggest concern continues with the gold A/D data which has continued to "deflate"
2008-10-02 19:14:27 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: materials implosion today more than $ story methinks
2008-10-02 19:14:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is not something to take lightly as it's this area of assets that will tend to move higher when liquidity levels are ample
2008-10-02 19:15:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so before looking at the data this evening, the one thing I do want to stress here is that if you are long, you MUST remain very disciplined
2008-10-02 19:16:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everything is telling me now that this a 3rd wave down which can include "crash like" events
2008-10-02 19:16:40 [Message] ron -> Main Room: no disagreement there
2008-10-02 19:16:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: another poor day tomorrow, added to waiting for the market to open on Monday, and we might not be able to recover
2008-10-02 19:17:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so we should be on guard for the worse and let the market prove its intent to bottom
2008-10-02 19:17:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: another bright area is with the financials as they continue to hold up nicely here
2008-10-02 19:18:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the industrial sector is getting clobbered now as was the indication with the MCO data - I think it was last Thursday
2008-10-02 19:18:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if we see any lower lows in the MCO's tonight this would not be the time to get anywhere near aggressive on the long side as it will again take time for this reset in the pattern to work itself through
2008-10-02 19:19:32 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Think you will see what you just said...
2008-10-02 19:19:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: at the earliest, I believe we talked about mid October for a price bottom
2008-10-02 19:19:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's not good then
2008-10-02 19:19:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the main reason is...
2008-10-02 19:20:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we are then getting too close to challenging last year's flags on the MCO's, and if they go, it's all over
2008-10-02 19:20:28 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Well, I went long before I saw tonites MCOs and MCSUMs
2008-10-02 19:20:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Fibonacci wise...I believe most of the indices are now close to .618 retracements
2008-10-02 19:21:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there was something different about today - the market felt very heavy
2008-10-02 19:21:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: like it's about to give up trying
2008-10-02 19:21:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I don't think any sector closed higher today
2008-10-02 19:21:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the biggest problem right now is that money is being horded
2008-10-02 19:21:50 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: never made it back to the open even once
2008-10-02 19:22:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which is reflective in the current credit spreads
2008-10-02 19:23:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: business wise, it's getting scary now
2008-10-02 19:23:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: people are being VERY selective in their buying habits
2008-10-02 19:24:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and again I mention this because our business usually leads the market by about 2-3 months
2008-10-02 19:24:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as I've shared before, at the end of June, we literally fell off a cliff
2008-10-02 19:24:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: very much like we see the current price patterns
2008-10-02 19:25:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: V bottom?
2008-10-02 19:25:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe...but we should see a retest
2008-10-02 19:25:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just play it cautious for now
2008-10-02 19:26:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and I highly recommend that if anyone is going to attempt to pick a bottom here, or scale in, PLEASE take out some put insurance
2008-10-02 19:26:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is what options were made for
2008-10-02 19:26:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if wrong...you can offset any mistakes
2008-10-02 19:27:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just be careful out there folks...the road of best intentions might wind up at a dead end
2008-10-02 19:28:17 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Well taken points fib....thanks
2008-10-02 19:28:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK....let me get DP up and we'll get started
2008-10-02 19:29:44 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: you mentioned retest. What retest?
2008-10-02 19:30:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a retest of wherever we finally find a bottom in this time period
2008-10-02 19:30:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: whether here at these levels, or lower
2008-10-02 19:30:21 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: would you consider today a retest of Monday?
2008-10-02 19:30:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there will be a retest
2008-10-02 19:30:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nope
2008-10-02 19:30:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I just looked at the CO NYSE breadth MCO - new lows there - confirming the price move today
2008-10-02 19:31:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so even if we "pull up" from here, there will be another test
2008-10-02 19:31:24 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: MCSUM took out support too....not bullish
2008-10-02 19:31:30 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: the 2004 OEX low has been tested recently...looking prior to 2004, the price zone appears to have "air" below
2008-10-02 19:31:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...the CO NYSE breadth MCO did move lower today
2008-10-02 19:32:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this has also given us a large gap lower on the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM right at the lows of the inverted ledge pattern we spoke about on Tuesday
2008-10-02 19:32:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is a big warning sign ladies and gentlemen of impending danger
2008-10-02 19:33:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we are literally losing foundational strength now
2008-10-02 19:33:13 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: for a crash like event or crash?
2008-10-02 19:33:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...it's possible
2008-10-02 19:33:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but not probable
2008-10-02 19:33:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for now, we are trending lower
2008-10-02 19:33:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: breaking support, and it doesn't look like we're going to pull up in time
2008-10-02 19:34:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we are deflating now
2008-10-02 19:34:17 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: but having 3%-7% days
2008-10-02 19:34:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: whether because of leverage unwinding or not is not the concern here
2008-10-02 19:34:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: our concern here is with this breakdown in the MCO, the 10% component still isn't "oversold" as yet
2008-10-02 19:35:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the other bigger concern here is, with today's move lower, we broke below the small pullback we see in the July period
2008-10-02 19:36:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this now cancels all upside MCO upside price objectives, and with this, any horizontal support of the price pattern itself
2008-10-02 19:36:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: of course, this is only the common stocks we're looking at, so let's move on to the composite
2008-10-02 19:37:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the composite NYSE breadth MCO is still supporting a bottoms above bottoms structure
2008-10-02 19:37:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the NYSE breadth MCSUM is now at (what I would call) the critical -750 level
2008-10-02 19:38:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: although we could move lower to remain divergent
2008-10-02 19:38:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: any move below this -750 level would imply a great amount of underlying weakness to the system
2008-10-02 19:38:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: capital is not flowing as it should be
2008-10-02 19:39:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: another way to look at it is that, right now, we seem to be suffocating
2008-10-02 19:39:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the bulls would like to move the market higher, but there isn't enough lung capacity to do so
2008-10-02 19:40:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: another near term problem lies with the fact that we weren't able to move above the last reactive highs of last week
2008-10-02 19:40:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: break above resistance
2008-10-02 19:40:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we didn't get our higher close that was indicated by the range day of Tuesday
2008-10-02 19:40:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is what I meant as the market being "heavy"
2008-10-02 19:41:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nerves are getting frayed here, and it would seem that those who would love to see a bottom, for whatever reason, are losing their patience
2008-10-02 19:41:43 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Fear not....our Congress is on the job and will save us.
2008-10-02 19:41:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and because of this, may just throw in the towel
2008-10-02 19:42:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's too late for that
2008-10-02 19:42:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it doesn't matter what Congress does now
2008-10-02 19:42:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the gears are already in motion
2008-10-02 19:42:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: today was a very bad character day
2008-10-02 19:42:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could we rally hard tomorrow?
2008-10-02 19:42:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sure
2008-10-02 19:43:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the path of least resistance is getting so critical now that these one or two day pops are not likely to hold
2008-10-02 19:43:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: unless...we put in a full stop NOW
2008-10-02 19:43:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: do or die
2008-10-02 19:43:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market can not take too much more of this
2008-10-02 19:44:23 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: mkt not very forgiving of MOS earnings today...
2008-10-02 19:44:38 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: earnings kick off next week (AA tues)
2008-10-02 19:44:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the market is already discounting this - we have to think 4th quarter now
2008-10-02 19:45:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if the House doesn't do anything (as I expect them to)...Katy Bar the Door
2008-10-02 19:45:35 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: you knew the market was going to push things to the brink after Monday's debacle
2008-10-02 19:45:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-10-02 19:45:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but today was too much of a push
2008-10-02 19:45:56 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: i don't agree that congress doesn't matter here
2008-10-02 19:46:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's OK
2008-10-02 19:46:07 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: their vote is going to be crucial
2008-10-02 19:46:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but then you have to ask yourself why the market went down 777 on Monday when it didn't pass, and then went down another 350 today after it did pass in the Senate
2008-10-02 19:46:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Congress does not matter now - their time is past
2008-10-02 19:47:16 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: senate approval was not in question
2008-10-02 19:47:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: their banter is not what the market wanted or needed
2008-10-02 19:47:19 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: sp trading at 21 times trailing, no 'value' perceived yet
2008-10-02 19:47:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: interesting about the senate
2008-10-02 19:47:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that the market knew that it would pass, and still closed down for the day
2008-10-02 19:48:14 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: what matters is the house right now
2008-10-02 19:48:18 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: I agree, their time is past, mkt NOT trading on this bill
2008-10-02 19:48:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's not a matter of value here, it's a matter of confidence
2008-10-02 19:49:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NASDAQ breadth MCO also moved to lower lows today
2008-10-02 19:49:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so we have another reset there
2008-10-02 19:49:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM gapped below the -750 level today which isn't a good thing
2008-10-02 19:51:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the price action is at a critical price point now for the longer term at the 2000 level
2008-10-02 19:51:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there are, of course, a couple of things on the bull side here
2008-10-02 19:51:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: like the volatility index'
2008-10-02 19:52:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I"m sure that the CVI is showing a turn
2008-10-02 19:52:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the main problem here is that we didn't open lower on Tuesday
2008-10-02 19:52:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and like we talked about, this highly suggests that the market still has some unfinished business yet to do on the downside
2008-10-02 19:53:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and now with the new lower MCO lows, this allows the price action to take out Monday's lows
2008-10-02 19:54:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NDX breadth MCO came apart at the seams today and has now broken it's rising bottoms line
2008-10-02 19:54:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this suggests that a new wave of price depreciation is hitting these stocks
2008-10-02 19:55:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you will also remember that we talked about that if the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM did move below the -750 level, it would take the NDX with it - we got that today
2008-10-02 19:55:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and with this move lower, the NDX breadth MCSUM has now broken to the downside
2008-10-02 19:55:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here's the bottom line with this situation
2008-10-02 19:56:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: until the MCSUM's turn higher, and then shows two days of gap expansion to the upside, any market rally from this juncture is to shorted
2008-10-02 19:56:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the trend of money flow is decidedly down
2008-10-02 19:57:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it would be suicidal to move against this strong tidal direction
2008-10-02 19:57:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: usually, this is where a bottom should develop, but the angst right now is so acute that it's going to take some time to even lift this dark cloud hovering above
2008-10-02 19:58:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just be careful
2008-10-02 19:58:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we already knew that something like this had to happen because of the "overbought" Open 10's
2008-10-02 19:59:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: unfortunately, though, it doesn't seem like any correction in this area is not going to be one of "time"
2008-10-02 19:59:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if volume picks up here....
2008-10-02 19:59:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just be careful
2008-10-02 20:00:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the SPX breadth MCO also moved to lower lows today
2008-10-02 20:00:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and just like magic,this slam lower also coincided with a break of the inverted ledge
2008-10-02 20:00:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market is screaming south...with emphasis
2008-10-02 20:01:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so far, there seems to be a lot of towel throwing
2008-10-02 20:01:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe too many trying to pick a low and then getting their heads handed to them
2008-10-02 20:02:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's equal and opposite that we saw with the bears during the uptrend, remember?
2008-10-02 20:02:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market would correct, the shorts would pile on, and this gave the fuel to rocket higher
2008-10-02 20:02:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...we're "oversold"
2008-10-02 20:02:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the news is dark
2008-10-02 20:02:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: people are concerned
2008-10-02 20:03:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we've been told that this kind of sentiment gives us tradable bottoms
2008-10-02 20:03:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and many have been attempting to trade this over the last couple of weeks
2008-10-02 20:03:20 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: bulls picked alot of bottoms '00-'02
2008-10-02 20:03:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MCSUM's moving sideways
2008-10-02 20:03:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: down one day, up the next
2008-10-02 20:03:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: waiting patiently for the danger to pass
2008-10-02 20:04:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and today...some real selling hit the market
2008-10-02 20:04:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe this was done in front of what we may find out tomorrow
2008-10-02 20:04:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: fair enough
2008-10-02 20:04:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it is what it is
2008-10-02 20:05:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and, technically, we have lost our platform
2008-10-02 20:05:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we'll have to find another way to build a new one
2008-10-02 20:05:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: basically...I wouldn't expect any type of bottom now until mid November
2008-10-02 20:05:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if the election is close...next year
2008-10-02 20:06:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back in the spring we talked about something like this happening, and it would seem that this is turning out to be the blueprint
2008-10-02 20:06:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and I wouldn't expect anything else for now
2008-10-02 20:06:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the only "hope" for now is that we don't take out the flag lows of last year
2008-10-02 20:06:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if we do....
2008-10-02 20:07:04 [Message] Rainy -> Main Room: is this emotional trading?
2008-10-02 20:07:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: onward
2008-10-02 20:07:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: on my part or the markets?
2008-10-02 20:07:26 [Message] Rainy -> Main Room: the markets
2008-10-02 20:07:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everything seems to be trading based on the news of the day
2008-10-02 20:08:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: every morning when you turn on the major news sources we are reminded how terrible things are
2008-10-02 20:08:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that there is no light at the end of the tunnel
2008-10-02 20:08:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this can get on your nerves and emotions
2008-10-02 20:08:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so yes, much of what we've had in the last 3 weeks has been more emotional
2008-10-02 20:09:04 [Message] Rainy -> Main Room: how do we sort the emotion out
2008-10-02 20:09:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but now, this emotional is turning into hording
2008-10-02 20:09:16 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: doom and gloom magazine covers and headlines
2008-10-02 20:09:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: don't turn on the news
2008-10-02 20:09:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for some outlets, they are cheering this thing on
2008-10-02 20:09:58 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: You think there might be some shilling on news' part for the upcoming election???? Nawww
2008-10-02 20:10:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's what some in the media have been waiting for some time
2008-10-02 20:10:15 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: Carl @DP has kept us on the right side of things, no emotion, just following his methods
2008-10-02 20:10:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...kudos to Carl and others
2008-10-02 20:10:55 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: AAII sentiment and others still more bullish here than July
2008-10-02 20:11:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: however, he also got caught up in a probable bottom scenario in September (I do believe)
2008-10-02 20:11:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nothing is easy in the business - even I make mistakes
2008-10-02 20:12:09 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: Nikkei down 1.2% since open fwiw
2008-10-02 20:12:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all roads lead to the US
2008-10-02 20:12:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we are consumers of goods
2008-10-02 20:12:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if we fail to do so, everyone will suffer
2008-10-02 20:13:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that's what Congress is trying to prevent (I think)
2008-10-02 20:13:12 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: NZX50 down 2.5% to add to the cheer
2008-10-02 20:14:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the OEX breadth MCO continues to support bottoms above bottoms
2008-10-02 20:15:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the OEX breadth MCSUM continues to move sideways to down
2008-10-02 20:17:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so the institutions are hanging in there
2008-10-02 20:17:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: also supporting bottoms above bottoms on the Dow breadth MCO
2008-10-02 20:19:25 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Well, If I was not a nervous long before this chat...I am now
2008-10-02 20:19:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: am I sharing anything different then what you've been seeing and thinking?
2008-10-02 20:20:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have to be realistic here
2008-10-02 20:20:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we also have to follow what the technical indicators show us
2008-10-02 20:20:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if we don't, we might as well listen to an "expert"
2008-10-02 20:21:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sigh...and on to the MID which lost technical support today
2008-10-02 20:22:13 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: midcap futures got creamed today - led 'em all downward...
2008-10-02 20:25:12 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Boy, that MID ugalee!!
2008-10-02 20:25:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...it is
2008-10-02 20:25:21 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: yes
2008-10-02 20:25:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it told us that something was going on last Thursday - that a "crash like" event was possible
2008-10-02 20:25:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: then we got Monday
2008-10-02 20:26:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the high caps held up
2008-10-02 20:26:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but now they are breaking down too...
2008-10-02 20:26:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: same pattern
2008-10-02 20:26:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why I'm concerned here
2008-10-02 20:26:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no less having these multiple 80% plus negative breadth days
2008-10-02 20:26:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and still moving to lower lows
2008-10-02 20:27:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you have to consider that losses are piling up now and people are going to have to make a decision
2008-10-02 20:27:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: many have been watching, true
2008-10-02 20:27:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but I like I said earlier, today had a different tone to it
2008-10-02 20:27:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and now...we're seeing some technical breakdowns
2008-10-02 20:28:00 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: felt like a three down?
2008-10-02 20:28:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and very important ones
2008-10-02 20:28:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it feels like a 3 down, yes
2008-10-02 20:28:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: relentless, undeniable
2008-10-02 20:28:27 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: i wont deny that feeling
2008-10-02 20:28:43 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: I'll bite: what's a 3 down?
2008-10-02 20:28:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...if you're long...buy put insurance
2008-10-02 20:28:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: an Elliott 3rd wave
2008-10-02 20:29:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's what every crash talking bear talks about
2008-10-02 20:29:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here's my definition (replace down for up - bull for bear) - "3rd waves are ''wonders to behold'' - and for many good reasons. Technically, this is the time where most analysts throw in the towel as price is now confirming what the internals told the analyst during wave 1 - which was a change in direction was probable. This is also the time in which extremes in many indicators will show up - something in which I refer to as ''flags'' - which are used later on in approximating the termination point of the entire 5 wave sequence structure. In equities, these extremes will be in the raw data of both volume and breadth - and the strength or weakness of the indicators that use such information - as well as their relationship to each other. Price pattern wise, one will always be able to identify a third wave because of the fact that price patterns will break out of basic support or resistance areas that were previously controlling the pattern up until that time. Psychologically, this is when the mind set is that we remember how we all got burned before and that in no way is this the start of a major up move - also known as climbing the ''wall of worry''. Once the market gets high enough, people start throwing in the towel on their bearish mind set, and this continues to a point when all the ''willing'' buyers are in the market. 3rd waves are also never the shortest wave in a 5 wave structure - and more times than not - are generally the longest wave in either price, percentage gain, or both, to what will be the final 5 wave structure overall. "
2008-10-02 20:31:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the psychology is there
2008-10-02 20:31:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you can decide where we might be for yourself... http://tinyurl.com/3pmt55
2008-10-02 20:31:41 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: even bears have trouble trading bear markets...
2008-10-02 20:31:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you are so right
2008-10-02 20:32:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bears have no idea how to trade bear markets
2008-10-02 20:32:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...the average bear
2008-10-02 20:32:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's so easy to be bear
2008-10-02 20:32:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the problem is when they don't fully appreciate what a true bear market can do
2008-10-02 20:34:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back to the MID
2008-10-02 20:34:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: besides the internal configuration
2008-10-02 20:34:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you will note that after the snapback to what was horizontal price support on the chart, that it broke away from this level quite decisively
2008-10-02 20:35:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is a classic technical breakdown
2008-10-02 20:35:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which is now being confirmed by lower MCO lows
2008-10-02 20:36:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we also broke below the MCO hesitation point of early July
2008-10-02 20:36:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so we have problems here all around
2008-10-02 20:37:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and you would think with all of this liquidity being thrown at the market that this just couldn't happen
2008-10-02 20:37:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it is
2008-10-02 20:37:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this should tell us all that there is a much bigger problem out there still not on the table
2008-10-02 20:37:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look at gold
2008-10-02 20:37:47 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I think all the liquidity just buying treasuries
2008-10-02 20:37:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: until gold stabilizes, we're going to have problems here
2008-10-02 20:38:06 [Message] Rainy -> Main Room: people putting cash under the mattress?
2008-10-02 20:38:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all of the liquidity is being horded
2008-10-02 20:38:16 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: gold not stable today
2008-10-02 20:38:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a bit extreme Rainy...but I guess so
2008-10-02 20:38:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nope
2008-10-02 20:38:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the gold A/D lines are not showing any sign of bottoming
2008-10-02 20:38:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: money is also leaving the debt area
2008-10-02 20:39:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the only A/D line showing any kind of stability...the REITS
2008-10-02 20:39:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which some might find quizzical
2008-10-02 20:39:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it is what it is
2008-10-02 20:39:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: on the other hand
2008-10-02 20:40:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: many people went into nesting mode during the last correction in 2000-2002
2008-10-02 20:40:13 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I noticed that....I am very confused on the REITs....
2008-10-02 20:40:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: meaning...they were putting their money in their living areas...improving on their standard of living
2008-10-02 20:40:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is a defensive posture
2008-10-02 20:41:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: when animals are scared, they move into defensive mode - they nest and wait until the storm blows over
2008-10-02 20:41:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in my neck of the woods I'm seeing many people working on their homes
2008-10-02 20:42:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back in the early 2000's it was roofs and interior - now its the outside facades
2008-10-02 20:42:19 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: ck out the NYSE stocks above the 200day sma in the lower portion of this chart - http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$NYDEC&p=D&yr=3&mn=0&dy=0&id=p24488988365
2008-10-02 20:42:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we also have lower lows today on the SML breadth MCO
2008-10-02 20:42:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and Doc?
2008-10-02 20:43:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this now suggests that the base of the price pattern we talked about on Tuesday will be broken
2008-10-02 20:43:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or at least severely tested
2008-10-02 20:43:35 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: was going to mention bullish percents...
2008-10-02 20:43:49 [Message] mojave -> Main Room: gettin' there, but not there
2008-10-02 20:44:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nope...some were "overbought" when I posted them last weekend
2008-10-02 20:44:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the total market breadth MCO continues to support the same pattern as that of the NYSE and NASDAQ - bottoms above bottoms are holding
2008-10-02 20:45:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as a reminder
2008-10-02 20:45:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it is the broadest area of stocks that mean the most here
2008-10-02 20:45:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the index areas that make up this broad based analysis though is breaking down
2008-10-02 20:45:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so if the total market gives way, so will the market in general
2008-10-02 20:46:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: do....or.....die
2008-10-02 20:46:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we are at a critical point in the longer term bull market - that going back to 1932
2008-10-02 20:46:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: might be a Super Cycle Top
2008-10-02 20:47:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sure has the theme of such an event
2008-10-02 20:47:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: credit collapsing
2008-10-02 20:47:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: wars breaking out (or the threat of them)
2008-10-02 20:47:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: political chaos
2008-10-02 20:47:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (shrug)
2008-10-02 20:48:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could also be a second wave
2008-10-02 20:48:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the best thing is
2008-10-02 20:48:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we are now at a point in which one or the other would be our best guideline
2008-10-02 20:48:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we'll be able to trade with a higher level of confidence because of it
2008-10-02 20:49:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: luckily, these days, we CAN trade the downside
2008-10-02 20:49:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as well as the upside
2008-10-02 20:49:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...we wait
2008-10-02 20:49:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but we won't have to wait too much longer now...
2008-10-02 20:49:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a quick look at the sectors
2008-10-02 20:50:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: lower lows on the XLY breadth MCO
2008-10-02 20:50:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the XLY breadth MCSUM is now at MCSUM gap support with the ultimate support at around the -400 level
2008-10-02 20:51:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: XLP - Staples - are continuing to hold up quite nicely here
2008-10-02 20:51:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this seems to be our "run for cover" sector
2008-10-02 20:51:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which also means, any further decline will be muted here, and any bounce should find its way into this sector first
2008-10-02 20:52:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the XLP breadth MCSUM is right at its near term declining tops line
2008-10-02 20:52:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so a move above it would be a buy
2008-10-02 20:52:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if it can't move above it...a zero line test is indicated
2008-10-02 20:53:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the XLE data...
2008-10-02 20:53:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and aren't you glad you didn't move long?
2008-10-02 20:53:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is the beauty of the MCSUM
2008-10-02 20:53:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: when it gets to extremes as it has with the XLE breadth data
2008-10-02 20:54:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: even though it may turn higher, this doesn't necessarily mean that the price decline (in this case) is over
2008-10-02 20:54:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now at the -750 level...let's see if it can find support here
2008-10-02 20:55:08 [Message] whipsaw101 -> Main Room: $BPENER=2.35%
2008-10-02 20:55:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: given the astounding weakness in crude lately between a rising dollar and a lack of industry
2008-10-02 20:55:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: really?
2008-10-02 20:55:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good for a bounce
2008-10-02 20:55:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it was over 80% - what - last week?
2008-10-02 20:55:47 [Message] whipsaw101 -> Main Room: mid seventies
2008-10-02 20:56:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 62% last Friday
2008-10-02 20:56:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: wow
2008-10-02 20:56:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: talk about "airing out"
2008-10-02 20:56:26 [Message] gman -> Main Room: Sorry for my ignorance, but what does $BPENER represent
2008-10-02 20:56:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that would be the XLE BPI
2008-10-02 20:56:48 [Message] gman -> Main Room: Thanks
2008-10-02 20:56:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: from last Friday's close - http://www.technicalwatch.com/bpi/ener092608.png
2008-10-02 20:57:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here are the others in case you haven't seen them - http://www.technicalwatch.com/bpi/sectorbpi.htm
2008-10-02 20:58:12 [Message] whipsaw101 -> Main Room: 5 minutes to debate start
2008-10-02 20:58:19 [Message] gman -> Main Room: thank you very much
2008-10-02 20:59:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...if anything...I really am impressed by the amount of passion in government of late
2008-10-02 21:00:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I hope many will take the time to watch what happens since everyone in the House is up for election in 30 days
2008-10-02 21:00:30 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: If it is a 3 down, is there a way of locating the midpoint?
2008-10-02 21:00:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is the important part of this years election...the president is really a side show
2008-10-02 21:01:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if this is a 3 down...you and everyone will know the mid point
2008-10-02 21:01:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember 10/19/87?
2008-10-02 21:01:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that was a mid point
2008-10-02 21:01:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: usually "measuring gaps" occur during the mid poinit
2008-10-02 21:01:54 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: ic. ty
2008-10-02 21:02:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if a trend is hard (up or down) the mid point - the point of acceleration - is the mid point of a third wave of any degree
2008-10-02 21:02:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it is accompanied by the best in extremes in BOTH breadth and volume
2008-10-02 21:02:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it leaves NO doubt
2008-10-02 21:03:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here's what may happen with this scenario - broad based - subject to market conditions
2008-10-02 21:04:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we would open higher on Friday, and then slowly lose the rally
2008-10-02 21:04:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this usually happens after the 1st hour
2008-10-02 21:04:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then momentum builds to the downside
2008-10-02 21:04:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: although things may not go in a straight line
2008-10-02 21:04:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but we do close at the lows of the day
2008-10-02 21:04:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or very near them
2008-10-02 21:05:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: tension would build over the weekend
2008-10-02 21:05:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: especially with the Sunday talk shows
2008-10-02 21:05:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Monday comes, and it would be like a crowd of people all trying to get to the exits through a revolving door
2008-10-02 21:05:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now, with that said
2008-10-02 21:06:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's not likely that this will happen with the MCSUM's as low as they are right now
2008-10-02 21:06:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is a VERY important consideration
2008-10-02 21:06:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: however, we have never had the lunatics running the levers as we have right now during such set ups
2008-10-02 21:06:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: pull the wrong one, and this is all it would take to tip the scales
2008-10-02 21:06:58 [Message] geosing -> Main Room:
2008-10-02 21:07:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm just trying to be reasonable here
2008-10-02 21:07:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we all see what I'm seeing
2008-10-02 21:07:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we're all feeling what I'm feeling
2008-10-02 21:07:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bottom?
2008-10-02 21:07:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe
2008-10-02 21:07:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but not one of a tradable kind because of todays new MCO lows
2008-10-02 21:08:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: those who have followed the chats for any length of time know that when lower or higher moves in the MCO are made, the price move is not over
2008-10-02 21:08:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nothing has changed
2008-10-02 21:08:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we must remain consistent until proven otherwise
2008-10-02 21:08:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just know what you're up against here
2008-10-02 21:09:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I just don't anyone to get hurt
2008-10-02 21:09:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and I wouldn't be doing my job if I didn't share this with you
2008-10-02 21:09:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have given the market ample time to prove itself
2008-10-02 21:09:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we had a nice advance from the July lows
2008-10-02 21:10:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we knew that "another shoe" was probable going to drop in September
2008-10-02 21:10:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all has come around as was indicated by the MCSUM at that time
2008-10-02 21:10:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and there's nothing different here
2008-10-02 21:10:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the bottom line is we need to find support now...or we'll going to have a tough time of it for a while
2008-10-02 21:11:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and I'm talking economics here
2008-10-02 21:11:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the track record of the McClellan's have proven their worth in trading
2008-10-02 21:11:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no sense in "overruling" what they're suggesting now
2008-10-02 21:11:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just be careful
2008-10-02 21:12:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as mentioned earlier, the XLF breadth MCSUM continues to hold up nicely here
2008-10-02 21:12:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and as long as this continues, the composite NYSE breadth MCO should continue to support divergent bottoms
2008-10-02 21:13:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we also know that it's unlikely that the lows of July will be challenged, and if they are, they are likely to hold because of the previous "oversold" extremes
2008-10-02 21:13:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so even if we do get a purge here, it will put us that much closer to an actual tradable bottom
2008-10-02 21:14:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just watch your assets in the meantime
2008-10-02 21:14:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: lower lows in the XLV (health) breadth MCO
2008-10-02 21:14:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this has turned the tide on the XLV breadth MCSUM to a point in which longs should consider closing positions
2008-10-02 21:15:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as this MCSUM was not able to re-establish its rising bottoms line
2008-10-02 21:15:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the XLI data continues to look terrible
2008-10-02 21:16:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this would reflect the Dow Industrials and Transports
2008-10-02 21:16:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the transports were down 9% today
2008-10-02 21:16:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: ugh
2008-10-02 21:16:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so much for the theory of lower oil prices helping the transports
2008-10-02 21:16:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you see, each market trades on its own rhythm
2008-10-02 21:17:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and, sometimes, it times well, and other times, it doesn't
2008-10-02 21:17:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: people get into the idea that if A=B - then B=A
2008-10-02 21:17:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's fundamentalism
2008-10-02 21:18:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory"
2008-10-02 21:18:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: XLB (materials) is breaking down hard to the downside now
2008-10-02 21:19:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the XLK (Tech) doesn't look that good either
2008-10-02 21:19:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's going to break MCSUM support on Friday unless we get an abrupt turnaround
2008-10-02 21:20:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the XLU (Utilities) continue to be indecisive
2008-10-02 21:20:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bottom line based on the trend of breadth is that we're in the process of breaking down
2008-10-02 21:21:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if we accelerate tomorrow (high negative breadth plurality) watch out
2008-10-02 21:21:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be a one day event...could be over several day period
2008-10-02 21:22:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: especially since we have circuit breakers which only delay the inevitable
2008-10-02 21:22:13 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: So risky to initiate a short position?
2008-10-02 21:22:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: day trade only for now
2008-10-02 21:22:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I've laid out a path to follow...just in case
2008-10-02 21:23:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the more the time traders have a sense of urgency to do something, the more extreme it gets
2008-10-02 21:23:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: CVI's are climactic
2008-10-02 21:23:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look for a turnaround in the next two trading sessions
2008-10-02 21:24:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: STVO's are finally approaching minimally "oversold" levels
2008-10-02 21:24:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: VTO's still have a ways to go in this area
2008-10-02 21:24:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and I don't like the NDX VTO moving higher today
2008-10-02 21:24:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NYSE TRIN at 1.48
2008-10-02 21:24:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .87
2008-10-02 21:25:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: finally back in range - the bearish side of neutral - but not "overbought" anymore
2008-10-02 21:25:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: wow...another fiver for the NASDAQ TRIN!
2008-10-02 21:25:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 5.01
2008-10-02 21:26:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: history has shown that on the NYSE TRIN, anytime we see levels above 5, are a major buy signal
2008-10-02 21:26:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but this isn't the NYSE
2008-10-02 21:26:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the TRIN 18 didn't deliver the goods
2008-10-02 21:26:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but numbers like this do indicate HEAVY selling
2008-10-02 21:27:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "dump at any price"
2008-10-02 21:27:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: also take a moment to look at the price chart
2008-10-02 21:27:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the angle of decent is straight down right now
2008-10-02 21:27:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: making it very hard to reverse
2008-10-02 21:27:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: call it a nose dive
2008-10-02 21:28:11 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: fib remember the expanded triangle we talked about last year
2008-10-02 21:28:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that top beneath the top does nothing to help it
2008-10-02 21:28:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-10-02 21:28:35 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: its at that lower trendline now
2008-10-02 21:28:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we're making lower MCO lows
2008-10-02 21:28:50 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: just below
2008-10-02 21:28:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's probably not going to hold
2008-10-02 21:29:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: too much push
2008-10-02 21:29:06 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: another thing
2008-10-02 21:29:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: too much energy
2008-10-02 21:29:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: go
2008-10-02 21:29:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: btw - wave 3's are notorious for breaking major trend lines
2008-10-02 21:29:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's why you get people "throwing in the towel"
2008-10-02 21:29:53 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: longer term trendline between 90 and 2002 bottoms log basis also being tested at these levels
2008-10-02 21:30:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...it's a do or die situation right now
2008-10-02 21:30:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we need a full stop to money leaving for greener pastures
2008-10-02 21:30:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: TM TRIN at 2.81
2008-10-02 21:30:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at .88
2008-10-02 21:31:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we'll call it neutral
2008-10-02 21:31:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if we're neutral....
2008-10-02 21:31:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes, one side is about to take control
2008-10-02 21:31:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything else?
2008-10-02 21:32:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: questions?
2008-10-02 21:32:45 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: too many questions. too little time. Thanks as always
2008-10-02 21:32:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the only stupid question is the one that isn't asked
2008-10-02 21:33:02 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: the lower mco
2008-10-02 21:33:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-10-02 21:33:09 [Message] slatedrake -> Main Room: fib - double short etf or puts for greatest capitalization?
2008-10-02 21:33:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would NOT play this as going for the jugular
2008-10-02 21:33:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you play this with discipline
2008-10-02 21:33:47 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: thats on the naz ?
2008-10-02 21:33:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there are too many outside variables here
2008-10-02 21:34:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the only recommendation I would give to everyone is buy put insurance
2008-10-02 21:34:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what you personally do beyond that is up to you
2008-10-02 21:34:28 [Message] slatedrake -> Main Room: ty
2008-10-02 21:34:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I have tried to lay out a path
2008-10-02 21:34:48 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: much appreciated as always u know that fib
2008-10-02 21:34:48 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: Fed Bullard says: rate cut at this point is "blunt instrument".
2008-10-02 21:35:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and with put premiums so high, you will have to go out a bit in strike price
2008-10-02 21:35:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: FED cuts are not needed
2008-10-02 21:35:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: inter banking loans are
2008-10-02 21:35:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the system is clogged
2008-10-02 21:35:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and there isn't a plumber out there coming to the rescue (yet)
2008-10-02 21:35:49 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: He also said spreads are not likely to return to precrisis levels
2008-10-02 21:35:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: agreed
2008-10-02 21:36:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have big problems here
2008-10-02 21:36:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and I now don't believe there's going to be an easy way out
2008-10-02 21:36:15 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: agreed
2008-10-02 21:36:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there's no leadership
2008-10-02 21:36:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway...if there's nothing else
2008-10-02 21:36:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I have to get going
2008-10-02 21:36:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyone take care - have a great weekend
2008-10-02 21:36:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we'll chat again next Tuesday
2008-10-02 21:37:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good night
2008-10-02 21:37:05 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Thanks and good night
2008-10-02 21:37:27 [Message] rightfield -> Main Room: good night
2008-10-02 21:37:38 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: Globex moving up. all is well
2008-10-02 21:37:57 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: Good night all



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