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fib_1618

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Posts: 4,492
Reply with quote  #1 
2015-10-20 16:00:46 fib1618: good day
2015-10-20 16:00:48 fib1618: how is everyone?
2015-10-20 16:01:00 thespookyone: Super, and you?
2015-10-20 16:01:07 fib1618: doing well...thanks for asking
2015-10-20 16:01:22 rite01: doing pretty good
2015-10-20 16:02:51 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2015-10-20 16:03:05 thespookyone: best trading market in some time, loving it
2015-10-20 16:03:11 rite01: When we get to XLE could you comment on the last two weeks price pattern being a possible double top?
2015-10-20 16:03:33 fib1618: what evidence do you have that would suggest it is?
2015-10-20 16:04:24 rite01: Well double top in price and a reduction in the chart buying?
2015-10-20 16:04:38 rite01: volume
2015-10-20 16:04:46 fib1618: But what indications are you getting...OK volume
2015-10-20 16:05:04 fib1618: let me ask you this
2015-10-20 16:05:15 fib1618: when we're looking at a chart
2015-10-20 16:05:29 fib1618: and we see that volume is above average in one direction
2015-10-20 16:05:41 fib1618: but then volume is below average as it retraces or consolidates
2015-10-20 16:06:02 fib1618: is the trend in that price structure giving indications of exhaustion?
2015-10-20 16:06:28 fib1618: let's take the XLE for example
2015-10-20 16:06:51 fib1618: and apply our standard 20 and 50 EMA's to the chart structure
2015-10-20 16:07:09 rite01: I think I understand question and yes to me it seems to indicated a exhaustion
2015-10-20 16:07:10 fib1618: and we see that we had increasing volume as we moved up and through both of these EMA's showing conviction
2015-10-20 16:07:34 fib1618: but we've had decreasing volume as the pattern "paused"
2015-10-20 16:08:03 fib1618: those that are in "control" show the highest amount of volume in that direction
2015-10-20 16:08:29 fib1618: those who are not in control can not "compete" with those who are
2015-10-20 16:08:46 fib1618: so going back to the chart at hand
2015-10-20 16:08:50 rite01: I'm going by the volume bars gray or red bottom of chart
2015-10-20 16:08:59 fib1618: I understand
2015-10-20 16:09:18 fib1618: do you have an EMA of the volume bars also charted?
2015-10-20 16:09:28 rite01: yes
2015-10-20 16:09:32 fib1618: time scale?
2015-10-20 16:09:47 rite01: 1 yr
2015-10-20 16:10:00 fib1618: 52 period moving average of volume?
2015-10-20 16:10:13 fib1618: is it maybe the default of SC?
2015-10-20 16:10:29 rite01: yes it should be
2015-10-20 16:10:34 fib1618: I'm asking so I can see what you see
2015-10-20 16:10:38 fib1618: OK..one moment
2015-10-20 16:10:49 fib1618: because I have all of my EMA of volume on a 34 period scale
2015-10-20 16:10:50 fib1618: one sec
2015-10-20 16:11:58 fib1618: OK...SC doesn't use a MA default on the daily volume
2015-10-20 16:12:08 fib1618: here's what's important
2015-10-20 16:12:20 rite01: 34 period scale you mean days?
2015-10-20 16:12:20 fib1618: forgetting about the moving average component (yes, days)
2015-10-20 16:12:37 fib1618: you want to see increasing volume in the direction of the path of least resistance
2015-10-20 16:12:47 fib1618: and you want to see decreasing volume on the pull backs
2015-10-20 16:13:05 fib1618: so if the trend is down...you want increasing volume on down moves
2015-10-20 16:13:13 fib1618: and decreasing volume on up moves
2015-10-20 16:13:17 fib1618: or "counter (to the) trend"
2015-10-20 16:13:26 fib1618: so, in this case
2015-10-20 16:13:32 fib1618: and without looking at anything else
2015-10-20 16:13:36 fib1618: and keeping things really simple
2015-10-20 16:13:49 fib1618: the control of the XLE right now is that on the buy side
2015-10-20 16:13:57 fib1618: and no indication of a double top
2015-10-20 16:14:03 fib1618: apply the EMA's
2015-10-20 16:14:19 fib1618: and you will also see that the price pattern remains above both the 20 and 50 day EMA's
2015-10-20 16:14:32 fib1618: and, in fact, the 20 has now crossed above the 50
2015-10-20 16:14:41 fib1618: this would again indicate that the buyers have control of the pattern at this time
2015-10-20 16:14:58 fib1618: and that there is no evidence of a potential of a double top
2015-10-20 16:15:04 fib1618: it's a corrective sequence
2015-10-20 16:15:05 fib1618: now
2015-10-20 16:15:07 thespookyone: I think it is in a small 4 wave, fwiw
2015-10-20 16:15:14 fib1618: this is being a chartist
2015-10-20 16:15:29 fib1618: without any help with underlying data to support this idea
2015-10-20 16:16:01 fib1618: very much like the old days before computers and rocket scientists injecting their new ways of looking at stocks
2015-10-20 16:16:18 fib1618: so let's jump to the XLE breadth data for a sec
2015-10-20 16:16:33 rite01: OK I was thinking just the opposite on volume would be true.  I'll review this chat session tomorrow
2015-10-20 16:16:59 fib1618: no problem
2015-10-20 16:17:24 rite01: This is where join.me would come in handy
2015-10-20 16:17:24 fib1618: but lower volume doesn't necessarily mean the completion of a price sequence...it's more of a pausing sequence
2015-10-20 16:17:39 fib1618: looking at the XLE breadth MCSUM
2015-10-20 16:17:50 fib1618: and since you're dealing with a very short term price pattern here
2015-10-20 16:18:05 fib1618: there isn't any indication at this time of a top being played out...double or otherwise...when we're looking at the XLE breadth MCO
2015-10-20 16:18:15 fib1618: that would come when and if there is bearish divergence in the structures and not when seeing "deceleration sequence" after a breadth thrust
2015-10-20 16:18:17 fib1618: remember
2015-10-20 16:18:24 fib1618: that with the XLE breadth MCO
2015-10-20 16:18:38 fib1618: of which I will assume you're leaning towards with this idea
2015-10-20 16:18:45 fib1618: that when you have an extreme
2015-10-20 16:19:14 fib1618: you're more than likely going to go through a "series" of lower tops before the momentum of the original thrust will exhaust itself
2015-10-20 16:19:19 fib1618: at this point
2015-10-20 16:19:22 fib1618: we are not even close to that
2015-10-20 16:19:32 fib1618: usually
2015-10-20 16:19:39 fib1618: when we do have double tops or bottoms
2015-10-20 16:19:43 rite01: OK thank you ...it's back to the drawing board for me please continue the chat session
2015-10-20 16:19:57 fib1618: the MCO will had already moved to the opposite side of the zero line
2015-10-20 16:20:10 fib1618: and then snapback to this line as the second top is forming
2015-10-20 16:20:23 fib1618: not a matter of a drawing board
2015-10-20 16:20:30 fib1618: it's a good question
2015-10-20 16:20:54 fib1618: and some may lead you the wrong way because they "wish" the pattern to be what they see
2015-10-20 16:21:29 fib1618: and that will get you in trouble more times than not IF you are not using appropriate analysis to help in confirming what you're seeing to be the actual case
2015-10-20 16:21:31 thespookyone: Very good, because the validity of any pattern should be judged by proper volume in relation to the pattern
2015-10-20 16:21:36 fib1618: it's like the heads and shoulders top
2015-10-20 16:21:44 fib1618: you hear everyone say that if it looks like it
2015-10-20 16:21:51 fib1618: it MUST be it
2015-10-20 16:21:55 fib1618: but in reality
2015-10-20 16:22:02 fib1618: if the volume pattern doesn't fit
2015-10-20 16:22:14 fib1618: it isn't what it "appears to be" with a quick look
2015-10-20 16:22:22 rite01: Thank you both .. I'll review the past double tops with all this new info. and get back to you with anymore questions
2015-10-20 16:22:29 fib1618: simple chart analysis is a lost art
2015-10-20 16:22:35 fib1618: in fact
2015-10-20 16:23:25 fib1618: there are many times over the years in which we talk about the simplicity of taking a number 2 pencil to some graph paper is the only real way to get a feel for how the market pendulums back and forth
2015-10-20 16:23:42 fib1618: questions are always encouraged in here
2015-10-20 16:24:00 thespookyone: true, and simile is working very well in this market segment.... I've gone very simple old school here
2015-10-20 16:24:13 fib1618: as we tend to lose our way from time to time because of what we believe is the case while the market may have other plans
2015-10-20 16:24:25 fib1618: OK...anything else?
2015-10-20 16:24:39 rite01: no not at this time please continue
2015-10-20 16:24:45 fib1618: OK...let's get SC up and get started then
2015-10-20 16:28:57 thespookyone: Do you have the Bulkowski pattern book, Rite?
2015-10-20 16:29:40 thespookyone: Well worth reading, and having...
2015-10-20 16:29:53 fib1618: Edwards and McGee as well
2015-10-20 16:30:08 thespookyone: yep
2015-10-20 16:30:16 fib1618: but the best one is the one that was the originator of chart pattern TA
2015-10-20 16:30:24 fib1618: let me see if I can get a link
2015-10-20 16:30:30 fib1618: don't even know if it's in print anymore
2015-10-20 16:30:35 fib1618: it was printed in early 1930's
2015-10-20 16:30:37 fib1618: one sec
2015-10-20 16:30:41 thespookyone: wow
2015-10-20 16:31:29 fib1618: can't find it right now...but it's by Richard Schabacker
2015-10-20 16:31:35 fib1618: let's see how things are doing
2015-10-20 16:32:10 fib1618: after showing a bit of upside follow through on Friday
2015-10-20 16:32:24 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO moved lower on Monday and bounced higher today
2015-10-20 16:32:30 rite01: Sorry Lew I walked away for a while and NO I do not have it...
2015-10-20 16:32:53 fib1618: given that the pattern did not snapback to the zero line
2015-10-20 16:33:28 fib1618: we're more than likely in the beginning stages of etching our first complex bullish structure that we've seen in awhile
2015-10-20 16:33:45 fib1618: if this is the case
2015-10-20 16:34:11 fib1618: and we will know if it is over the next couple of days as the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM approaches the +250 level
2015-10-20 16:34:41 fib1618: then we'll have additional confirmation that we're likely to see a challenge of the all time highs in the NYA index on this current sequence
2015-10-20 16:35:27 fib1618: taking ruler to monitor
2015-10-20 16:36:03 fib1618: and we see that the current price levels in the NYA index are right up against a declining trendline that goes back to the June highs
2015-10-20 16:36:33 fib1618: so what will need to be done in order to break above this trendline
2015-10-20 16:36:42 fib1618: is a higher high in the MCO above last week's peak
2015-10-20 16:37:11 fib1618: looking at the 21 day close up chart of the price pattern itself
2015-10-20 16:37:28 fib1618: it would appear that we will likely make that attempt to break to the upside as soon as Wednesday
2015-10-20 16:37:55 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2015-10-20 16:38:02 fib1618: and here we have an identical pattern working
2015-10-20 16:38:15 fib1618: but with the added bonus of a small point change this evening
2015-10-20 16:38:32 fib1618: so let's look for a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading sessions
2015-10-20 16:39:13 fib1618: and isn't this "coincidental" given the information we just went over in the MCO's?
2015-10-20 16:39:25 fib1618: we also notice
2015-10-20 16:39:43 fib1618: that the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM is not only leading the CO MCSUM to the upside
2015-10-20 16:39:52 fib1618: but we have also cleared above the important +250 level today
2015-10-20 16:40:24 fib1618: so any good upside follow through seen by Thursday will then allow not only the break out above trendline resistance in the NYA
2015-10-20 16:41:11 fib1618: will also provide the needed thrust to keep prices moving up toward their upside objective given 2 weeks ago of around the 10,800 level
2015-10-20 16:41:22 fib1618: overall then
2015-10-20 16:41:33 fib1618: the market continues to look constructive at this juncture
2015-10-20 16:41:45 fib1618: and that the path of least resistance remains with the buyers at this time
2015-10-20 16:42:19 fib1618: after testing the mid September price highs on Monday
2015-10-20 16:42:33 fib1618: the NASDAQ Composite had an inside range day today
2015-10-20 16:42:41 fib1618: which would suggest a lower close on Wednesday
2015-10-20 16:42:43 fib1618: however
2015-10-20 16:43:01 fib1618: when we look at the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2015-10-20 16:43:10 fib1618: we see that with its two day pullback
2015-10-20 16:43:16 fib1618: it still remains above the +25 level
2015-10-20 16:43:33 fib1618: this would then indicate that there is lack of selling pressure at this juncture
2015-10-20 16:44:16 fib1618: and this will likely provide a near term platform for the buyers to break above the intraday highs of this same mid September period
2015-10-20 16:44:48 fib1618: we also see that the 5% Trend is finding good support at its zero line right now
2015-10-20 16:44:54 fib1618: and as long as this continues
2015-10-20 16:45:52 fib1618: this is where the saying of "never short a dull market" is something that should be respected for what it suggests
2015-10-20 16:46:15 fib1618: short term for the buyers
2015-10-20 16:46:44 fib1618: they will need to find a way to break above the rounding top high of mid July to really make this thing "go"
2015-10-20 16:46:54 fib1618: and by the looks of the chart
2015-10-20 16:47:14 fib1618: we're about 50 data points of this hurdle
2015-10-20 16:48:05 fib1618: so a pump to test of the highs of early October would really put a whole lot of hurt on the sellers on a short term basis
2015-10-20 16:48:15 fib1618: and keep things moving higher for this index into the end of the month
2015-10-20 16:48:20 fib1618: BTW
2015-10-20 16:48:40 fib1618: I heard today that, so far, this month has seen the largest gains in some 4 years
2015-10-20 16:49:00 fib1618: don't know if that's entirely true...and they didn't mention the index
2015-10-20 16:49:13 fib1618: but knowing the press...it was probably basis the Dow or SPX
2015-10-20 16:49:32 fib1618: right now
2015-10-20 16:49:37 fib1618: the Dow is up 5.73%
2015-10-20 16:49:57 fib1618: and the SPX is up 5.77%
2015-10-20 16:50:04 fib1618: so not too bad
2015-10-20 16:50:05 thespookyone: impressive
2015-10-20 16:50:29 fib1618: SML is up 5.90%
2015-10-20 16:50:38 fib1618: MID is up 5.07%
2015-10-20 16:50:55 fib1618: COMPQ is up 5.64%
2015-10-20 16:51:10 fib1618: NDX is up 6.15%
2015-10-20 16:51:23 fib1618: so the gains have been pretty even
2015-10-20 16:51:48 fib1618: and this is another characteristic of a trend
2015-10-20 16:52:01 fib1618: when you have the entire market moving in unison
2015-10-20 16:52:08 rite01: XLU up +9%
2015-10-20 16:52:10 fib1618: up or down...doesn't matter
2015-10-20 16:52:13 fib1618: there you go
2015-10-20 16:52:27 fib1618: XLE up 11.19%
2015-10-20 16:52:37 fib1618: this is why
2015-10-20 16:52:41 fib1618: it's always best
2015-10-20 16:52:49 fib1618: to leave your bias at the door when trading
2015-10-20 16:53:07 fib1618: as great majority, I'm sure, have missed out on some nice gains
2015-10-20 16:53:11 fib1618: and granted
2015-10-20 16:53:40 fib1618: we didn't quite get a technical reversal signal ourselves until it was half over
2015-10-20 16:53:53 fib1618: but you still have to respect what you see...and not what you hope to see
2015-10-20 16:53:58 thespookyone: XLE about 10.6
2015-10-20 16:54:04 fib1618: 11.19
2015-10-20 16:54:16 thespookyone: oh, I see I underestimated, LOL
2015-10-20 16:54:32 fib1618: XLU is only up 3.86%
2015-10-20 16:54:51 rite01: not from being of month
2015-10-20 16:54:57 fib1618: XLB up 9.84%
2015-10-20 16:55:13 thespookyone: nice
2015-10-20 16:55:16 fib1618: according to SC...up 3.86% for the month since 10/1
2015-10-20 16:55:29 rite01: you are right I'm sorry that was from September
2015-10-20 16:55:47 fib1618: so the largest gain has been the XLE
2015-10-20 16:56:09 fib1618: no wonder it's taking a rest! [wink]
2015-10-20 16:56:17 thespookyone: and, man, that summation was SMOKIN!
2015-10-20 16:56:18 fib1618: OK...back to where we were
2015-10-20 16:56:52 fib1618: the NDX breadth MCSUM has now moved up and through the +250 level today
2015-10-20 16:57:11 fib1618: and it's now challenging the highs of late April
2015-10-20 16:57:40 fib1618: so any further move to the upside near term
2015-10-20 16:57:50 fib1618: is really going to give this index a shot in the arm
2015-10-20 16:58:06 fib1618: with an objective of 4600
2015-10-20 16:58:19 fib1618: so far
2015-10-20 16:58:31 fib1618: we're seeing very little in the way of selling over the last 2 trading days
2015-10-20 16:58:33 fib1618: this is bullish
2015-10-20 16:58:35 thespookyone: AMZN earnings are Thursday [wink]
2015-10-20 16:58:54 fib1618: it's up 10% this month
2015-10-20 16:58:59 fib1618: what a business!
2015-10-20 16:59:06 thespookyone: oh yea!!
2015-10-20 16:59:09 fib1618: they now have a 7" tablet at $50
2015-10-20 16:59:44 fib1618: and Echo has a lot of potential
2015-10-20 16:59:56 fib1618: I really like the company
2015-10-20 17:00:03 thespookyone: they really dominate online sales, which are projected to grow 54% the next two years
2015-10-20 17:00:33 fib1618: no wonder they're at all time highs
2015-10-20 17:00:39 thespookyone: yep
2015-10-20 17:00:54 fib1618: and they're going to have a great holiday season
2015-10-20 17:01:00 fib1618: you can't beat Prime
2015-10-20 17:01:08 fib1618: BTW
2015-10-20 17:02:15 fib1618: I would really appreciate it that if you're looking for books and any products on Amazon to use the links provided on the TW message boards as your starting point...it helps in paying for the bandwidth
2015-10-20 17:02:24 thespookyone: AMZN chart looks like $650 to me, pretty soon.. (however, etc)
2015-10-20 17:02:44 fib1618: it's hard to project a number when everyone is a winner
2015-10-20 17:02:44 rite01: Will do and thanks for the reminder
2015-10-20 17:02:47 fib1618: that said
2015-10-20 17:02:59 fib1618: we are overextended on Amazon right now
2015-10-20 17:03:10 fib1618: but the strong do tend to get stronger
2015-10-20 17:03:18 fib1618: and we are going into the holiday season
2015-10-20 17:03:28 fib1618: sorry for the tangent
2015-10-20 17:03:34 fib1618: moving back to the SPX breadth MCO
2015-10-20 17:03:39 rite01: Better to buy at highs than at lows
2015-10-20 17:03:53 fib1618: and here we have another small point change
2015-10-20 17:03:58 fib1618: to a point Mike
2015-10-20 17:04:06 fib1618: it's OK to buy at higher highs
2015-10-20 17:04:24 fib1618: but you (again) must have the volume pattern to support the price structure
2015-10-20 17:04:41 rite01: that's what I meant higher highs
2015-10-20 17:04:54 fib1618: sort of like we went through with KR
2015-10-20 17:04:57 fib1618: yes
2015-10-20 17:05:02 rite01: exactly
2015-10-20 17:05:03 fib1618: and expanding volume on the higher highs
2015-10-20 17:05:11 fib1618: let me see how its doing
2015-10-20 17:05:27 fib1618: monthly chart on KR looks great
2015-10-20 17:05:45 rite01: yes it does
2015-10-20 17:05:57 fib1618: the stock split
2015-10-20 17:06:05 fib1618: looks like 2:1
2015-10-20 17:06:21 fib1618: SAR at 38.23
2015-10-20 17:06:32 fib1618: and the pattern is compressing and ready to spring
2015-10-20 17:06:45 rite01: lets hope
2015-10-20 17:06:48 fib1618: so something for the watch list
2015-10-20 17:06:51 fib1618: are you back in?
2015-10-20 17:07:02 rite01: yes a little this time
2015-10-20 17:07:12 fib1618: that's OK
2015-10-20 17:07:22 fib1618: you currently have strong EMA support
2015-10-20 17:07:41 fib1618: daily volume is a bit messy though
2015-10-20 17:07:48 fib1618: but that's part of the compression
2015-10-20 17:08:00 fib1618: as both sides attempt to take control from the other
2015-10-20 17:08:07 fib1618: your patience will be rewarded though
2015-10-20 17:08:09 thespookyone: KR chart looks good
2015-10-20 17:08:20 fib1618: check the monthly Lew
2015-10-20 17:08:35 fib1618: back to the SPX
2015-10-20 17:08:52 fib1618: and we see that the SPX breadth MCSUM has now cleared above all levels of horizontal resistance
2015-10-20 17:08:54 thespookyone: WOW...
2015-10-20 17:09:02 fib1618: so the next target will be the +500 level
2015-10-20 17:09:32 fib1618: looks like we'll see 2080 on the SPX within a week
2015-10-20 17:09:59 fib1618: notice that on the current pullback that the SPX breadth MCO is finding good support at the +50 level as well
2015-10-20 17:10:19 fib1618: this is what we refer to as having "buoyancy" to the pattern
2015-10-20 17:10:33 fib1618: where there is little in the way of selling currently
2015-10-20 17:10:50 fib1618: and the imbalance remains with the bids
2015-10-20 17:11:18 fib1618: looking at the one year chart
2015-10-20 17:11:45 fib1618: and we can also see that prices were turned away today at what was previous horizontal support of the summer time trading range
2015-10-20 17:11:50 fib1618: call it a probe
2015-10-20 17:12:23 fib1618: sort of like sending out a scout to see if the coast is clear or not and running back to tell the troops about what he saw
2015-10-20 17:13:21 fib1618: moving to the OEX breadth MCSUM
2015-10-20 17:13:53 fib1618: and you can see, by the large separation in the postings, that money continues to move into this basket of stocks at a nice clip
2015-10-20 17:14:27 fib1618: with a full on challenge of the +500 level as soon as Wednesday
2015-10-20 17:15:00 fib1618: price pattern wise
2015-10-20 17:15:29 fib1618: we're also seeing a challenge of the previous trading range lows
2015-10-20 17:15:41 fib1618: and in both cases
2015-10-20 17:16:19 fib1618: we are currently playing tag in and around the 200 EMA's on the daily charts
2015-10-20 17:16:28 fib1618: for many chartist's
2015-10-20 17:16:51 fib1618: the 200 day EMA is the demarcation line between longer term bullish and bearish behavior
2015-10-20 17:17:03 fib1618: so we should continue to watch this interplay with interest
2015-10-20 17:17:36 fib1618: the Dow breadth MCSUM continues its journey towards its objective of +750
2015-10-20 17:18:05 fib1618: and we're now at the highest levels since January
2015-10-20 17:19:05 fib1618: plus we have transversed around 1750 data points so far from the bottom in early September
2015-10-20 17:19:19 fib1618: with any further gains to around 2200 data points a good indication that a re-initiation of the longer term uptrend has begun
2015-10-20 17:20:14 fib1618: so far...a solid price low continues to be indicated here in the Dow
2015-10-20 17:20:41 fib1618: and we'll call the starting point at around 16,000
2015-10-20 17:21:02 fib1618: which was the double bottom lows
2015-10-20 17:21:10 fib1618: moving to the MID breadth MCO
2015-10-20 17:21:34 fib1618: and here we see that this MCO continued higher over the last two days
2015-10-20 17:21:48 fib1618: when the large caps were showing movement to the downside
2015-10-20 17:22:11 fib1618: this then instructs us that during this current price consolidation from Thursday
2015-10-20 17:22:39 fib1618: that money continues to "stealthy" move into this basket of stocks
2015-10-20 17:22:52 fib1618: we also had a small point change today as well
2015-10-20 17:23:12 fib1618: as the MID breadth MCSUM moved up and through the important +250 level today
2015-10-20 17:23:18 fib1618: looking good there
2015-10-20 17:23:42 fib1618: moving to the SML breadth MCO
2015-10-20 17:23:58 fib1618: and here we see that after quick move lower on Friday
2015-10-20 17:24:05 fib1618: we've seen back to back days to the upside
2015-10-20 17:24:14 fib1618: though we haven't moved above last Thursday's highs as yet
2015-10-20 17:24:17 fib1618: but like the MID
2015-10-20 17:24:44 fib1618: we're seeing money "sneaking" into the broader market small caps
2015-10-20 17:24:57 fib1618: and because of this
2015-10-20 17:25:21 fib1618: we have now cleared above the horizontal highs of mid July in the SML breadth MCSUM
2015-10-20 17:25:49 fib1618: and that should allow prices to start to pick up the pace on any further rally from this juncture
2015-10-20 17:26:40 fib1618: and a small point change as well on the TM breadth MCO
2015-10-20 17:27:38 fib1618: as buying continues to be strong enough to push the TM breadth MCSUM up and through its zero line
2015-10-20 17:27:45 fib1618: so...
2015-10-20 17:28:00 fib1618: we continue to see more and more strength fan out to many areas of the market
2015-10-20 17:28:10 fib1618: with the weakest link in the NASDAQ composite
2015-10-20 17:28:16 fib1618: the strongest in the large caps
2015-10-20 17:28:39 fib1618: not exactly what we want to see for an extended price sequence to the upside
2015-10-20 17:29:05 fib1618: but it's more than enough to see prices move to revisit the highs we saw prior to the August crash
2015-10-20 17:29:24 fib1618: moving to the volume side
2015-10-20 17:30:32 fib1618: and we also have small point changes in both the NYSE CO and Composite volume MCO's
2015-10-20 17:30:47 fib1618: but both are a bit on the lethargic side right now compared to their breadth cousins
2015-10-20 17:30:59 fib1618: although they both remain above their zero lines
2015-10-20 17:31:09 fib1618: between the breadth and volume then
2015-10-20 17:31:24 fib1618: money is moving and spreading out to more and more areas of the market
2015-10-20 17:31:55 fib1618: but there doesn't quite seem to be a lot of conviction behind it where large sums of capital are being used in doing so
2015-10-20 17:32:05 fib1618: not a bad thing
2015-10-20 17:32:24 fib1618: but it leaves things a bit on the vulnerable side
2015-10-20 17:32:25 fib1618: and
2015-10-20 17:32:40 fib1618: it's something like this will tend to slow the rate of volatility
2015-10-20 17:33:02 fib1618: could pick up tomorrow though on any attempt to break above resistance
2015-10-20 17:33:25 fib1618: so we'll see
2015-10-20 17:34:15 fib1618: after moving higher on Monday, we had a bit of weakness come in the NASDAQ volume MCO today
2015-10-20 17:34:26 fib1618: but we remain well above the zero line there as well
2015-10-20 17:34:57 fib1618: with nice upside post expansion there
2015-10-20 17:35:29 fib1618: and that gives us promise that we haven't, as yet, found a termination point in the current rally structure
2015-10-20 17:35:56 fib1618: the NDX volume MCO remains very strong
2015-10-20 17:36:12 fib1618: with the NDX volume MCSUM about to clear above the +500 level as soon as Wednesday
2015-10-20 17:36:40 fib1618: we've also cleared above the end April highs as well now
2015-10-20 17:36:48 fib1618: so no need to look for a short there
2015-10-20 17:37:19 fib1618: small point change in the SPX volume MCO
2015-10-20 17:37:24 fib1618: looking good there as well
2015-10-20 17:37:41 fib1618: as we have now cleared above the April/May tops
2015-10-20 17:37:53 fib1618: objective there remains with the +500 level on the SPX volume MCSUM
2015-10-20 17:38:06 fib1618: which we could see by Friday
2015-10-20 17:38:56 fib1618: both the OEX and Dow volume MCSUM's continue to move to new highs
2015-10-20 17:39:42 fib1618: in fact
2015-10-20 17:39:52 fib1618: of all of the internals we've looked at this evening
2015-10-20 17:39:57 fib1618: the Dow data is, by far, the strongest
2015-10-20 17:40:17 fib1618: you wouldn't know that by using price as your barometer though
2015-10-20 17:41:01 fib1618: the MID volume MCSUM moved up and through its zero line on Thursday
2015-10-20 17:41:13 fib1618: while the SML volume MCSUM will likely do so tomorrow
2015-10-20 17:41:37 fib1618: and the TM volume MCSUM continues to improve as well
2015-10-20 17:42:05 fib1618: as it lies around 130 data points from reaching the important +250 level
2015-10-20 17:42:09 fib1618: so...
2015-10-20 17:42:23 fib1618: the only thing really holding things back here is in the volume data
2015-10-20 17:42:34 fib1618: as traders continue to "tip toe" their way to higher highs
2015-10-20 17:42:53 fib1618: since we are at many important resistance levels right now
2015-10-20 17:43:00 fib1618: from simple EMA's
2015-10-20 17:43:03 fib1618: to trendlines
2015-10-20 17:43:12 fib1618: and previous trading ranges over the summer
2015-10-20 17:43:36 fib1618: it will take a concerted move by the buyers to break above these levels
2015-10-20 17:43:43 fib1618: and with it
2015-10-20 17:44:04 fib1618: up volume will need to expand exponentially to do this
2015-10-20 17:44:11 fib1618: so as we watch price
2015-10-20 17:44:35 fib1618: and watch the breadth plurality numbers that accompany it
2015-10-20 17:44:53 fib1618: let's keep a special focus on the up/down ratio on any further advance
2015-10-20 17:45:29 fib1618: with a 4:1 or better ratio giving us the "all clear" that we have enough behind us to break above these levels
2015-10-20 17:46:26 fib1618: no real opinion on the OBV's
2015-10-20 17:46:55 fib1618: though we continue to relieve our "overbought" conditions from last week in the STVO's
2015-10-20 17:47:14 fib1618: and have done so enough where we can have another large push to the upside near term
2015-10-20 17:47:32 fib1618: VTO's, though, are getting "overbought" now
2015-10-20 17:48:00 fib1618: so we'll have to monitor things on any upside break of resistance as we approach our initial upside price targets
2015-10-20 17:48:19 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 1.14
2015-10-20 17:48:31 fib1618: wow..Open 10 at 1.06
2015-10-20 17:48:44 fib1618: this is why we call this "correcting on the fly"
2015-10-20 17:49:07 fib1618: as the momentum of prices is so dynamic
2015-10-20 17:49:37 fib1618: that all we need is for consolidations, areas of digestion, to work off any over heating that came from the initial thrust
2015-10-20 17:50:11 fib1618: and here...we've gone from above .80 to the current reading in a little over a week
2015-10-20 17:50:27 fib1618: while prices have actually gained
2015-10-20 17:50:35 fib1618: that's bullish
2015-10-20 17:50:49 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.18
2015-10-20 17:50:58 fib1618: Open 10 at .88
2015-10-20 17:51:01 fib1618: still neutral
2015-10-20 17:51:12 fib1618: TM TRIN at 1.28
2015-10-20 17:51:21 fib1618: Open 10 at .96
2015-10-20 17:51:25 fib1618: so....
2015-10-20 17:51:55 fib1618: we have done the minimal amount that was needed to work off any froth created by the breadth thrusts we saw two weeks ago
2015-10-20 17:52:19 fib1618: with the buyers holding short term trend support as shown by the various MCO's
2015-10-20 17:52:25 fib1618: because of this
2015-10-20 17:52:44 fib1618: the market continues to suggest that the path of least resistance is higher for now
2015-10-20 17:53:21 fib1618: and that we could see a concerted effort to extend those gains to or toward our upside price targets that were given two weeks ago as soon as Wednesday
2015-10-20 17:53:44 fib1618: and all depending on what is created from this attempt
2015-10-20 17:54:10 fib1618: we'll then be able to extend on what we should expect into the first week of November
2015-10-20 17:54:21 fib1618: for now...the trend is up until proven otherwise
2015-10-20 17:54:25 fib1618: anything else?
2015-10-20 17:54:39 unc1998: what was the price target again on the Dow?
2015-10-20 17:54:56 fib1618: 17,750 I believe
2015-10-20 17:55:05 unc1998: thanks
2015-10-20 17:55:13 fib1618: overall
2015-10-20 17:55:31 fib1618: many of the price targets are around the mid point of the summer's trading ranges/triangles
2015-10-20 17:56:18 fib1618: with the exception of the Dow now that both the breadth and volume MCSUM's are at 10 month highs
2015-10-20 17:56:20 fib1618: and with that
2015-10-20 17:56:31 fib1618: the all time highs seems to be a good bet there as well
2015-10-20 17:56:39 fib1618: I would say above that
2015-10-20 17:57:03 fib1618: but I want to see broader strength here before sticking my neck out
2015-10-20 17:58:06 rite01: Lew thanks for the Bulkowski pattern book tip..
2015-10-20 17:58:13 thespookyone: What do you have the OEX/PC ratio at, please?
2015-10-20 17:58:23 fib1618: checking
2015-10-20 17:58:33 thespookyone: no prob rite, it's a nice read
2015-10-20 17:58:48 thespookyone: thx
2015-10-20 17:59:30 fib1618: 10 day moving average at 2.15
2015-10-20 17:59:34 fib1618: that's very bullish
2015-10-20 17:59:40 thespookyone: yep
2015-10-20 17:59:49 fib1618: wow
2015-10-20 17:59:55 fib1618: the ratio today moved to 6.8
2015-10-20 18:00:09 thespookyone: that's what concerned me, VST
2015-10-20 18:00:20 fib1618: lots of folks trying to pick a top it would seem
2015-10-20 18:00:25 fib1618: ISEE was at 76
2015-10-20 18:00:27 thespookyone: yes!
2015-10-20 18:00:46 fib1618: at this point
2015-10-20 18:01:15 fib1618: I would analyze this as institutions buying put insurance against the uptrend
2015-10-20 18:01:20 fib1618: as we are compressed
2015-10-20 18:01:25 thespookyone: cool, thx
2015-10-20 18:01:26 fib1618: and up against resistance
2015-10-20 18:01:35 fib1618: but there isn't enough evidence to sell
2015-10-20 18:02:06 fib1618: let me check the BETS
2015-10-20 18:03:08 fib1618: -15
2015-10-20 18:03:11 fib1618: news of note
2015-10-20 18:03:26 fib1618: the NYAD line is about to move back into a bullish configuration as soon as Wednesday
2015-10-20 18:03:31 fib1618: had a higher high today
2015-10-20 18:03:43 fib1618: so if breadth leads price
2015-10-20 18:03:52 fib1618: we should see prices rally by Thursday
2015-10-20 18:04:20 fib1618: Cumulative TICK and TICKQ are leading the way
2015-10-20 18:04:27 fib1618: and that's important
2015-10-20 18:04:29 fib1618: also
2015-10-20 18:04:41 fib1618: we see that the interest rate sensitive A/D lines are now moving higher again
2015-10-20 18:04:57 fib1618: so we shouldn't be looking for a tradable top anytime soon
2015-10-20 18:05:04 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2015-10-20 18:05:07 fib1618: I'm going to take off
2015-10-20 18:05:13 fib1618: everyone have a great couple of days
2015-10-20 18:05:21 fib1618: and we'll see how things look in Thursday
2015-10-20 18:05:22 fib1618: good night
2015-10-20 18:05:55 rite01: another great session... good night all!


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