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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2011-10-20 16:00:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2011-10-20 16:00:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-10-20 16:00:59 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: very well, thx
2011-10-20 16:02:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2011-10-20 16:02:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: starting to like your turn around Tuesday take
2011-10-20 16:02:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-10-20 16:02:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it ain't over till it's over
2011-10-20 16:03:06 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I always go with the hot hand..
2011-10-20 16:04:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...I think I'm close to settled here
2011-10-20 16:04:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whoops...one more thing...one sec
2011-10-20 16:05:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2011-10-20 16:06:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving to lower lows yesterday
2011-10-20 16:06:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO had a small bounce higher today
2011-10-20 16:06:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we continue to construct our complex pattern above the zero line
2011-10-20 16:07:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sweet texture
2011-10-20 16:07:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the important lows for this time period are the early October blip lower we see on the MCO
2011-10-20 16:07:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as the pattern maintains its structure above this low
2011-10-20 16:07:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price congestion we see here is part of a simple digestion period
2011-10-20 16:08:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which tends to happen when patterns reach their ongoing points of either support or resistance
2011-10-20 16:08:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM
2011-10-20 16:08:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we are now just under a full snapback to the zero line with a -29 reading
2011-10-20 16:09:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and taking ruler to monitor
2011-10-20 16:09:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we did break above the declining tops line yesterday we see on this yearly chart
2011-10-20 16:09:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a couple of options here
2011-10-20 16:10:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could find resistance at the zero line
2011-10-20 16:10:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and have a 2-3 day period of being below the MCO zero line to provide our snapback to this same declining tops line
2011-10-20 16:10:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or we could power right through the zero line and have a harder try of moving higher at the +250 level
2011-10-20 16:11:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since the news is as fluid as it is
2011-10-20 16:11:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could either or
2011-10-20 16:11:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but longer term
2011-10-20 16:11:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't really matter too much at this juncture how we get to the +250 level
2011-10-20 16:12:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only that we know that the odds highly favor such a move before we'll see anything that would look anything like an intermediate term pause to the pattern
2011-10-20 16:12:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYA price pattern for a moment
2011-10-20 16:12:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we seem to be tracing some sort of inverted head and shoulders pattern at this time
2011-10-20 16:13:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the only problem being whether this current digestion period is being provided as a simple right shoulder
2011-10-20 16:13:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or if we need more time to balance out the August and September price period for more complexity of the pattern
2011-10-20 16:14:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we know we have really good daily volume numbers to back the left shoulder and head (the bottom) of this same pattern and the constant drumming of the right shoulder which is indicative of such a pattern
2011-10-20 16:14:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's a matter of how long before the market finds its clarity
2011-10-20 16:14:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind
2011-10-20 16:15:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the NYSE breadth MCSUM gave us a window of between the 3rd week of September and the 1st week (or so) of November for our bottom
2011-10-20 16:15:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the more complex head and shoulders idea should still remain a focus at this time until the 7300/7400 neckline is violated
2011-10-20 16:16:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be the 1225/1230 area for the cash SPX
2011-10-20 16:16:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and no matter which way it goes
2011-10-20 16:16:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we already have our upside objective on any break of this same neckline
2011-10-20 16:17:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would be the 8250 level on the chart
2011-10-20 16:17:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which (coincidentally) is both the period before we crashed and it's also around the area of the initial upside objectives given by the MCO last week
2011-10-20 16:18:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more different angles of confirmation of a price target we get, the higher the confidence level of reaching such objectives
2011-10-20 16:18:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...from here
2011-10-20 16:18:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 8250 would be 1000 NYA points
2011-10-20 16:19:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and would also fit into the idea we talked about on Tuesday of a possible action/reaction play with the August crash
2011-10-20 16:19:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, if we think about it
2011-10-20 16:20:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the same problems exist that caused the August reaction, if clarity is then known, would probably bring the market back to the same levels in which it FUNDAMENTALLY found intrinsic value before the problems hit
2011-10-20 16:21:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: P/E ratios...Book...this kind of thing
2011-10-20 16:21:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far, earnings have been fairly good considering the upheaval
2011-10-20 16:21:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see how all this plays out
2011-10-20 16:21:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not surprisingly
2011-10-20 16:22:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a small bounce higher as well with the composite NYSE breadth MCO today
2011-10-20 16:22:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like the CO data
2011-10-20 16:22:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's the early October blip spike that's our focus at this current juncture
2011-10-20 16:23:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the MCO components
2011-10-20 16:23:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also see that the 10% Index had a higher low today creating a near term bullish internal divergence point in the pattern
2011-10-20 16:23:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this can suggest the possibility, and not the probability, that we'll likely move higher before we move lower
2011-10-20 16:24:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but given the excesses in both liquidity and volatility right now, it's not a slam dunk on what the actually expectation might be here
2011-10-20 16:24:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another cautionary note for the near term
2011-10-20 16:25:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that if we apply a full stochastic to both the NYMO and the NAMO right now they are more "overbought" than they are neutral right now
2011-10-20 16:25:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so minus any additional churning we might see to relieve this situation
2011-10-20 16:26:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation for the next week or so remains one of at least another attempt to try to close above the horizontal consolidation zone and begin an advancing price structure
2011-10-20 16:26:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we tried this on Tuesday
2011-10-20 16:27:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but didn't get any follow through on Wednesday (which was our final call at the end of the chat)
2011-10-20 16:27:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...now we're again stuck in a congestion area
2011-10-20 16:28:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a nice floor (note how the Open 10's yesterday were either neutral at the close or were minimally "oversold") and heavy resistance right at the point of the indecision of the last couple of month
2011-10-20 16:28:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: internally, we should move above this ceiling by next week
2011-10-20 16:29:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in the meantime
2011-10-20 16:29:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the MCO's have shown so far
2011-10-20 16:29:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're now starting to compress again
2011-10-20 16:29:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and compression points, once released, tend to give us some nice moves in the price pattern
2011-10-20 16:30:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will it come Friday?
2011-10-20 16:30:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: probably not with all of the outstanding option positions that will expire worthless
2011-10-20 16:30:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but once this is out of the way
2011-10-20 16:30:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we're likely going to see the true animal of this current market environment
2011-10-20 16:31:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO also pulled back today
2011-10-20 16:31:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and by a small amount as well
2011-10-20 16:31:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it also remains above the early October blip lows
2011-10-20 16:32:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM
2011-10-20 16:32:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM is now within range of another natural resistance point, the -250 level, which can allow the market to take a moment to catch its brea(d)th
2011-10-20 16:33:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the MCSUM zero line here is the big test
2011-10-20 16:33:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we get our power move near term
2011-10-20 16:33:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and move above the -250 level
2011-10-20 16:33:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our more important market test will probably come the week of 10/31
2011-10-20 16:33:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, of course, is the 1st week of November
2011-10-20 16:34:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: btw
2011-10-20 16:34:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: election day is on the 8th this year
2011-10-20 16:34:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it is the first FULL week of November
2011-10-20 16:34:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and Daylight Savings will be over
2011-10-20 16:35:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the Moon will be in the 7th house
2011-10-20 16:35:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NDX breadth MCO
2011-10-20 16:35:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see that the pattern has already broken below its early October spike lows
2011-10-20 16:36:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we note that, so far, this is the only price pattern that has not been able to maintain its digestion area because of this same break
2011-10-20 16:36:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why this level is important...and what it can lead to if violated
2011-10-20 16:37:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have a small point change here
2011-10-20 16:37:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the zero line should hold the pattern near term
2011-10-20 16:37:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then bounce off it
2011-10-20 16:38:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before any expectation of it moving back below this same line of neutrality
2011-10-20 16:38:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...not a lot of worry here near term of this break
2011-10-20 16:38:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just something to keep our eyes on
2011-10-20 16:38:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially since we are well into the vicinity of the July pattern highs on the NDX breadth MCSUM
2011-10-20 16:39:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small bounce higher today as well on the SPX breadth MCO
2011-10-20 16:39:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're now into our second trading day with the SPX breadth MCSUM above its +250 level
2011-10-20 16:40:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the longer it continues to remain above this level and, more importantly, continues to climb
2011-10-20 16:40:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the better the odds will be for a upside breakout from our current consolidation
2011-10-20 16:40:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just a matter of time
2011-10-20 16:40:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if that's not convincing
2011-10-20 16:41:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how about how the market has now been able to decline and then regain much of what it loses within a day?
2011-10-20 16:41:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is important information on how traders are moving their money around
2011-10-20 16:42:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the prior rallies in this consolidation saw an exhaustion of buyers (in the guise of shorts covering)
2011-10-20 16:42:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once they finished...whoosh...down we went
2011-10-20 16:42:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but now we must be getting more than just short covering
2011-10-20 16:43:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for it takes fresh funds to offset any price declines and have their advantage in bidding prices higher in the face of such declines
2011-10-20 16:44:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're getting a good piece of rhythm now that favors the buyers
2011-10-20 16:44:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and rhythm is an important factor because it only occurs when prices are either about to or are in the process of trending
2011-10-20 16:45:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this gives us another piece of important information as to the probable direction of stock prices for both the near and short term time periods
2011-10-20 16:45:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCSUM has now moved above the +500 level
2011-10-20 16:46:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have theoretically reached escape velocity
2011-10-20 16:46:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in that we have now moved high enough to escape the clutches of the market default
2011-10-20 16:47:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that being a bear market
2011-10-20 16:47:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we see this kind of thing happen
2011-10-20 16:47:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: areas that are suggested as key support and resistance points are either close to or are already violating these same areas
2011-10-20 16:47:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the OEX chart
2011-10-20 16:48:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we broke above the price range on Tuesday
2011-10-20 16:48:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and have all but snapped back to this same overhead resistance line during this 2 day churning event
2011-10-20 16:49:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...we do have a slight problem here
2011-10-20 16:49:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that the OEX breadth MCO early October spike lows have been taken out over this same 2 day period
2011-10-20 16:49:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we also have to consider that when an oscillator moves more and more into extreme territory
2011-10-20 16:50:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there will tend to be less and less energy needed to keep the flight path moving in the same direction
2011-10-20 16:50:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again..if we think of the Space Shuttle
2011-10-20 16:51:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's maximum fuel that's used is at launch
2011-10-20 16:51:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as it gets further away from the grasp of gravity (the default)
2011-10-20 16:51:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't need as much fuel to keep it's forward momentum intact
2011-10-20 16:52:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the "booster" rockets are no longer needed and are jettisoned
2011-10-20 16:52:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here we just want continued complexity for the pattern (as one would step on a accelerator pedal)
2011-10-20 16:53:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where, eventually, the fuel source is likely to run low here first before the broader market MCSUM which are heavy with their boosters still intact
2011-10-20 16:53:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...as we talked about on Tuesday
2011-10-20 16:54:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the really big test here will be with the +750 level where we saw our divergent highs in May
2011-10-20 16:54:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we can take those out
2011-10-20 16:54:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will then be cleared for a higher orbit
2011-10-20 16:54:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or simply said
2011-10-20 16:54:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will see new recovery highs in the OEX
2011-10-20 16:55:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCSUM just crossed above the +500 level today
2011-10-20 16:56:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we also have the important July highs on the MCSUM that were the prelude to our crash
2011-10-20 16:56:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it will be very important for the bulls to keep the pressure on here and take out both of these areas of formidable resistance
2011-10-20 16:57:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any hesitation in doing so will likely provide a more complex price pattern structure
2011-10-20 16:57:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like the idea of a more complex right shoulders of the inverted head and shoulders pattern we talked about earlier
2011-10-20 16:57:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the angle of ascent looks good here
2011-10-20 16:58:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doesn't seem to be too much in the way of hesitation as to its conviction
2011-10-20 16:59:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCSUM is also approaching a key level in its pattern at the +250 level
2011-10-20 17:00:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're getting close to many 250 multiple areas on pretty much all of the breadth MCSUM's
2011-10-20 17:00:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will we power through...or we will need a to take a break??
2011-10-20 17:01:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we're doing this at the top of a trading range that's a indecision pattern all to itself?
2011-10-20 17:01:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would seem then that the current market juncture might turn into one of those look back periods as we move forward from the current time period
2011-10-20 17:02:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the SML breadth MCO
2011-10-20 17:02:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the SML breadth MCSUM is approaching its +250 level
2011-10-20 17:02:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a small point change on the TM breadth MCO
2011-10-20 17:03:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...let's be prepared for a large move in the major market averages in the next 2 trading days
2011-10-20 17:03:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the meetings overseas turn out to be fruitful
2011-10-20 17:03:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then the market won't have that to worry about things for the time being and that could be a bullish catalyst
2011-10-20 17:04:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it may not be until Monday before we know for sure
2011-10-20 17:04:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however, if the market makers take indices lower tomorrow
2011-10-20 17:05:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would suggest that, more than likely, it would be for another round of wholesale buying
2011-10-20 17:05:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the current internals....
2011-10-20 17:05:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it might be the very last opportunity to be given
2011-10-20 17:05:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the many
2011-10-20 17:05:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's really OK to wait for the market to show its hand
2011-10-20 17:06:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you have the experience
2011-10-20 17:06:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the last 2 days have provided some excellent entry points on the long side
2011-10-20 17:06:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since the character of the choppiness has had a good rhythm to it and the MCO's are not showing any high degree of selling at this time
2011-10-20 17:07:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's move to the breadth sectors
2011-10-20 17:08:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLY breadth MCSUM is now within range of its +500 level
2011-10-20 17:08:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when we talk about character
2011-10-20 17:08:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you take ruler to monitor
2011-10-20 17:09:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the way the current advancing structure of this MCSUM provided a large gap on Tuesday above the declining tops line that can be drawn between the May and July tops
2011-10-20 17:09:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also note the gap above the +250 level
2011-10-20 17:09:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the acceleration up and through the zero line
2011-10-20 17:10:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is what we call "character of structure"
2011-10-20 17:10:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the pattern is performing bullishly (in this case) to support higher bids to the price pattern
2011-10-20 17:11:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice the equal and opposite effect in the August period in this same MCSUM
2011-10-20 17:11:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to add one more thing
2011-10-20 17:12:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the overall texture and post expansion of the XLY breadth MCSUM all during this sequence
2011-10-20 17:12:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: evidently money believes that there will be more disposal income to buy these same discretionary products
2011-10-20 17:13:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...we'll see how things look next week as this MCSUM approaches its +500 level
2011-10-20 17:13:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and whether this consistency in trend remains or not
2011-10-20 17:13:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP breadth McSUM is now at the +700 level
2011-10-20 17:14:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again..another MCSUM within striking distance of a 250 multiple
2011-10-20 17:14:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we also have the highs of early July just above that
2011-10-20 17:14:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so an important next couple of days are coming up here as well
2011-10-20 17:15:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE breadth MCSUM is now getting to its zero line with a reading of -57
2011-10-20 17:15:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which was our expectation about 2 weeks ago with the divergent bottom
2011-10-20 17:16:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice the lack of choppiness to this climb to the zero line
2011-10-20 17:16:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: instructing us that money is now moving back into energy with a high degree of confidence
2011-10-20 17:16:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still...a lot of work to do for the bulls
2011-10-20 17:17:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they are in much better shape than they were earlier this month and the XLE price advance reflects this
2011-10-20 17:18:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also the high level of consolidation in the XLE breadth MCO here
2011-10-20 17:18:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remaining well above the +50 level
2011-10-20 17:18:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: showing a tremendous amount of strength
2011-10-20 17:18:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: partially due to seasonality factors I'm sure
2011-10-20 17:19:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there's enough buoyancy here that we do need to respect as to this sector's future performance
2011-10-20 17:19:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF breadth MCSUM is right at its zero line now
2011-10-20 17:19:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the game of "who will take the baton" begins
2011-10-20 17:20:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking ruler to monitor here
2011-10-20 17:20:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we also see that this sector MCSUM broke above its declining tops line this past Tuesday as well
2011-10-20 17:21:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so Tuesday is looking more and more like a "statement day" although, at first glance, it was only a peak above the horizontal trading range
2011-10-20 17:21:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the XLV breadth MCO
2011-10-20 17:21:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it continues to hang above its zero line
2011-10-20 17:22:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the longer it does
2011-10-20 17:22:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV breadth MCSUM will continue to rise
2011-10-20 17:22:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although now without the velocity it once had
2011-10-20 17:22:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...look at all these MCSUM's near their +500 levels
2011-10-20 17:23:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: including the XLI breadth MCSUM
2011-10-20 17:23:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now with a reading of +389
2011-10-20 17:23:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...
2011-10-20 17:23:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our being above the +250 level
2011-10-20 17:24:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the one hand this pretty much finishes off any further downside objectives below the trading range from happening here
2011-10-20 17:24:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since we're still below the +500 level
2011-10-20 17:24:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're not exactly in a position to break out of this same consolidation pattern on an intermediate term basis either
2011-10-20 17:25:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: short term...we do indeed have the fuel to do this
2011-10-20 17:25:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's fully an intermediate term question now
2011-10-20 17:25:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bulls have to not only hold it together
2011-10-20 17:26:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they MUST find more and more fresh money to keep the proverbial ball rolling in their direction
2011-10-20 17:26:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but texture says the bulls remain in control
2011-10-20 17:27:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB price pattern definitely looks the weakest here
2011-10-20 17:27:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the internals seem to be suggesting that this is close to ending
2011-10-20 17:28:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the precious metals also appear to be setting a floor here
2011-10-20 17:28:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me see how gold did today...one moment
2011-10-20 17:28:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK..held $1600
2011-10-20 17:28:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: mid range close
2011-10-20 17:29:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another quick test at or below the $1600 area should be enough
2011-10-20 17:29:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least it would look good technically
2011-10-20 17:29:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see
2011-10-20 17:29:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OH...before I forget
2011-10-20 17:29:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another area of resistance right now on many of the index price charts
2011-10-20 17:30:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: along with the areas we cover in here
2011-10-20 17:30:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is with the 200 day EMA
2011-10-20 17:30:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is the demarcation line between friendly and hostile market conditions on a long term basis
2011-10-20 17:31:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: check out how the 50 day EMA has been setting the floor
2011-10-20 17:31:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the 200 day EMA is setting the ceiling of this recent choppy pattern
2011-10-20 17:31:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while this is going on
2011-10-20 17:32:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the short term 20 day EMA has played enough catch up to where it will now act as additional support for the 50 day EMA
2011-10-20 17:32:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: an upward cross of the 20 above the 50 would be important as to the structure of the price pattern
2011-10-20 17:32:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once done...both the 20 and the 50 day can attempt to push themselves back above the 200 day EMA
2011-10-20 17:33:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once that's done, we'll be clear to rally without too much a of problem
2011-10-20 17:33:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how it goes...
2011-10-20 17:34:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK breadth MCSUM is now testing its April and May highs
2011-10-20 17:34:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see how this "overhead resistance" is putting near term pressure on the spacing of the MCSUM as we approach these same levels
2011-10-20 17:35:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have a small point change here on the XLK breadth MCO
2011-10-20 17:35:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a nice intraday test of the reaction highs of late September
2011-10-20 17:36:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just need some follow through now...
2011-10-20 17:36:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLU continues to look really good here for conservative accounts
2011-10-20 17:37:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it's starting to once again show good post expansion to the upside as it moves towards its major resistance point of the July XLU breadth MCSUM
2011-10-20 17:37:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the price chart
2011-10-20 17:38:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we closed at new recovery highs today since the March 2009 lows...
2011-10-20 17:38:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check that
2011-10-20 17:38:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yep
2011-10-20 17:39:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're 5 points away from its all time highs
2011-10-20 17:39:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...but if you look at the Dow Utilities
2011-10-20 17:39:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's still 105 points away from its all time highs
2011-10-20 17:40:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: must be a matter of components
2011-10-20 17:40:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...
2011-10-20 17:40:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls remain in control of the short term action
2011-10-20 17:40:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the intermediate term internal picture is now coming up to what will be a very important juncture moving forward
2011-10-20 17:41:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we might blow through our resistance areas from the last 6 months
2011-10-20 17:41:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or given the amount work by the bulls for the last 3 months
2011-10-20 17:41:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a well deserved rest might be needed first before we do
2011-10-20 17:42:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both of which might fall into the lap of what comes out of the meetings this weekend
2011-10-20 17:42:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the key point in all this is that liquidity levels at the current time will probably be able to contain any bearish surprises over the next couple of days
2011-10-20 17:42:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: having lost their advantage in many market areas
2011-10-20 17:43:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will now take a couple of weeks before they'll be able to really paw down the market in any strategic way
2011-10-20 17:43:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the homework remains with looking for issues and products that have a bullish tilt to their patterns and work with those
2011-10-20 17:44:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CVI's gave us a nice reversal signal again on Tuesday
2011-10-20 17:44:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and are pretty much neutral again
2011-10-20 17:45:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's have relieved some of their "overbought" extremes
2011-10-20 17:45:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the VTO's are a little mixed but starting to look a bit frothy near term
2011-10-20 17:45:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but given where we are
2011-10-20 17:45:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and how we got here
2011-10-20 17:46:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this might be more of an indication of a potential for a breakout based more on up volume swamping down volume than it would be something of that of possible exhaustion
2011-10-20 17:46:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we need to be careful in not falling into this kind of trap
2011-10-20 17:47:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .78
2011-10-20 17:47:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.02
2011-10-20 17:47:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: minimally "oversold" now
2011-10-20 17:47:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's from being "overbought" last Friday
2011-10-20 17:48:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.06
2011-10-20 17:48:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .95
2011-10-20 17:48:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so no longer frothing at the mouth and a .68 reading
2011-10-20 17:48:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.06
2011-10-20 17:49:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .99
2011-10-20 17:49:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if anyone needed a good example in what is referred as "correcting on the fly" this would be one
2011-10-20 17:50:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we moved to selling imbalance without "disturbing" the advancing structure of the pattern
2011-10-20 17:50:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...we still look very good for an upside breakout here
2011-10-20 17:50:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just need to get past Friday it would seem
2011-10-20 17:51:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2011-10-20 17:51:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: questions?
2011-10-20 17:51:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: answers?
2011-10-20 17:51:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-10-20 17:52:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for those who have had the iron stomach of trading overnight futures...
2011-10-20 17:52:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my hats off to you
2011-10-20 17:52:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially the last couple of days
2011-10-20 17:53:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's been really scary
2011-10-20 17:53:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...I hope you continue to find our chats have been helpful with your own work
2011-10-20 17:54:24 [Message] tracca -> Chat: thank you fib
2011-10-20 17:54:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're welcome
2011-10-20 17:54:53 [Message] EricD -> Chat: thanks very helpful
2011-10-20 17:55:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the important thing in all of this
2011-10-20 17:55:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that your work should compliment the internals not the other way around
2011-10-20 17:55:47 [Message] tracca -> Chat: well said
2011-10-20 17:56:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they're not complimenting them, then you have to re-examine your analysis
2011-10-20 17:56:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything starts and ends with money
2011-10-20 17:56:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's direction
2011-10-20 17:56:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's speed
2011-10-20 17:56:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when and where it's put to work
2011-10-20 17:56:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is what we do as technicians
2011-10-20 17:57:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and without this key component, one will tend to lose focus
2011-10-20 17:57:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2011-10-20 17:57:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2011-10-20 17:57:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2011-10-20 17:57:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: enjoy the World Series
2011-10-20 17:57:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll meet up again on Tuesday
2011-10-20 17:57:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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