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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2010-10-19 16:00:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2010-10-19 16:00:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2010-10-19 16:00:30 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Very well, and you?
2010-10-19 16:00:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can all come out now from the fallout shelter
2010-10-19 16:01:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm doing fine...thanks
2010-10-19 16:01:36 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: gold-wow
2010-10-19 16:01:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how bad?
2010-10-19 16:01:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: last I saw was down $35
2010-10-19 16:02:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ditto, didn't see finish-covered my short in it from yesterday-looks corrective
2010-10-19 16:02:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the whole market looks corrective
2010-10-19 16:02:40 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure does
2010-10-19 16:02:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I doubt we'll see any sell signals tonight
2010-10-19 16:02:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: got to keep the bears happy
2010-10-19 16:03:10 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: or=put em back in the hunt...
2010-10-19 16:03:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can't have an advancing price structure without them
2010-10-19 16:03:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: so true
2010-10-19 16:03:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nah
2010-10-19 16:03:40 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I meant we needed new ones
2010-10-19 16:03:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we kinda knew last week that we were vulnerable being close to many 250 incremental targets on the MCSUM's
2010-10-19 16:04:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2010-10-19 16:04:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hey doc!
2010-10-19 16:05:08 [Message] doc -> Chat: hey there!
2010-10-19 16:05:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when was the ideal date for the 20 week Hurst low?
2010-10-19 16:05:21 [Message] doc -> Chat: Tomor to Thurs
2010-10-19 16:05:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-10-19 16:05:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too funny
2010-10-19 16:05:50 [Message] doc -> Chat: Could be later if cycles lengthen = bearish but so far that is the call
2010-10-19 16:05:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't you love the way the market plays catch up to cycle nesting's?
2010-10-19 16:06:26 [Message] doc -> Chat: This has been an extraordinary bullish run
2010-10-19 16:06:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's like: "hey...we're supposed to bottom around here...let's give the old heave ho and collapse!"
2010-10-19 16:06:56 [Message] doc -> Chat: Even today, we got a 6-7 point rally on SPX at the close
2010-10-19 16:07:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...we have very high MCSUM readings right now
2010-10-19 16:07:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "basketball in the deep end of the pool"
2010-10-19 16:07:33 [Message] doc -> Chat: When was the last time we got a big down day and closed on the lows and had ES keeping drifting down after the close??
2010-10-19 16:07:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know...I would have to look
2010-10-19 16:07:56 [Message] doc -> Chat: long time
2010-10-19 16:08:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but my guess would be when the various MCSUM's were closer to their zero lines
2010-10-19 16:08:11 [Message] doc -> Chat: yup
2010-10-19 16:08:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2010-10-19 16:08:47 [Message] doc -> Chat: Problem is, cyclically I'm only looking for down for a few more days and many are looking for an IT top here
2010-10-19 16:08:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved below its zero line today
2010-10-19 16:09:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's what you want, right?
2010-10-19 16:09:03 [Message] doc -> Chat: I'm looking for a bottom, lol
2010-10-19 16:09:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the many to believe the opposite?
2010-10-19 16:09:17 [Message] doc -> Chat: true
2010-10-19 16:09:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can't have a bottom unless everyone notices
2010-10-19 16:09:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2010-10-19 16:10:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but looking at the components that make up this MCO at the bottom on the chart
2010-10-19 16:10:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that both the 10% and 5% components remain well above their zero line
2010-10-19 16:10:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although we did get a crossover sell today
2010-10-19 16:10:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...with the MCO below the zero line, and the components not confirming this action, we have nothing but corrective price activity in play here
2010-10-19 16:11:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if the we remain above the component zero line during this sequence
2010-10-19 16:11:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then get a crossover buy on the components
2010-10-19 16:11:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we then add to our positions
2010-10-19 16:12:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...it's the proverbial "pause to refresh"
2010-10-19 16:12:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also notice that the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved below its zero line just as the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM was approaching the +750 level
2010-10-19 16:13:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we did top out here
2010-10-19 16:13:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the first objective would be the +500 level
2010-10-19 16:13:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we should see at least temporary support
2010-10-19 16:13:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if a bounce is created
2010-10-19 16:14:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices should be within range of moving to higher highs
2010-10-19 16:14:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite NYSE breadth MCO also broke below its zero line today
2010-10-19 16:14:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but unlike the common, the move lower here broke below the September lows
2010-10-19 16:15:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: putting our Elliott hat on for a moment
2010-10-19 16:15:34 [Message] doc -> Chat: How important is the line connecting the MCO lows in late May (FLAG) and late Aug on both the common and the composite?
2010-10-19 16:15:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this break below the September lows confirms a 4th wave in progress
2010-10-19 16:15:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: agreed!
2010-10-19 16:17:20 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: if the trend line is broken will the Elliot count then be different?
2010-10-19 16:17:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the support line from the May lows would be important with regard to the current advancing price structure
2010-10-19 16:17:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a trendline break would just further confirm the 4th wave
2010-10-19 16:17:59 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: OK
2010-10-19 16:18:11 [Message] doc -> Chat: We might have broke the trendline today by a smidgen
2010-10-19 16:18:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with Elliott you're dealing with a different level of momentum than that of the basic notion of a MCO break
2010-10-19 16:18:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me get my ruler and check..
2010-10-19 16:19:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like were right on it
2010-10-19 16:19:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a bounce would be indicated
2010-10-19 16:19:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only off this line, but also to fulfill a snapback to the zero line
2010-10-19 16:19:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me get the combo chart up
2010-10-19 16:20:14 [Message] doc -> Chat: I used a very very thin line and got a tiny break below, maybe by a couple of points.
2010-10-19 16:20:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat10/nyad101910.png
2010-10-19 16:21:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a couple of things on this chart to review
2010-10-19 16:21:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice at the top, where the MCO is, that we hit the zero line on Friday
2010-10-19 16:21:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapped back to the breakdown line on Monday
2010-10-19 16:21:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then carried through to the downside today
2010-10-19 16:22:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you didn't see it, Doc and I had a brief discussion on this
2010-10-19 16:22:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with my mentioning of the "speed of trend was slowing"
2010-10-19 16:22:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this was our tip off that we were, more than likely, going to move below the zero line for the near term
2010-10-19 16:22:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given our discussion of last Thursday
2010-10-19 16:23:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the various MCSUM's close to 250 multiple resistance areas
2010-10-19 16:23:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the idea of the market holding on until AAPL earnings given the euphoria of GOOG's earnings
2010-10-19 16:24:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we shouldn't be too surprised about today's action
2010-10-19 16:24:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have to keep in mind
2010-10-19 16:24:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that this is what I like to call "turnaround Tuesday"
2010-10-19 16:24:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes we see a turnaround in the trend
2010-10-19 16:24:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes we see a turnaround in the near term direction
2010-10-19 16:25:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...beside from that
2010-10-19 16:25:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and going back to the combo chart
2010-10-19 16:25:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you'll notice that the NYAD line remains well above its 10% Trend (19 day EMA)
2010-10-19 16:26:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the short term objective would be for us to take a breather to find eventual support on this same EMA
2010-10-19 16:26:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in other words
2010-10-19 16:26:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a good example of a market being "over extended", and the market has this uncanny knack of being able to pause just when it needs to for the longer term health of a trend
2010-10-19 16:27:17 [Message] doc -> Chat: Keeping the components above the zero line and getting the NYAD to its 19ema would be a 2-3 day correction affair, no?
2010-10-19 16:27:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be
2010-10-19 16:27:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe the rest of the week
2010-10-19 16:27:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe Thursday
2010-10-19 16:27:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but again
2010-10-19 16:27:50 [Message] doc -> Chat: Yet the MCO has been positive the better part of 6-7 weeks
2010-10-19 16:27:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's very important to remember that prices are not likely to decline importantly during this pause in the trend
2010-10-19 16:28:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that too Doc
2010-10-19 16:28:30 [Message] doc -> Chat: this might suggest a longer period of time in negative land for better balance and so there is the rub.
2010-10-19 16:28:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...we should see a bounce to the zero line as soon as tomorrow
2010-10-19 16:28:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then move again lower to test today's lows
2010-10-19 16:28:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the rising bottoms line etc.
2010-10-19 16:29:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could, however, with the NYAD line as extended as it is right now
2010-10-19 16:29:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until it moves below the 19 day EMA, the MCO components are going to remain above their zero line
2010-10-19 16:29:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that the McClellan's tell you just about everything you want to know about the A/D line without even looking at it
2010-10-19 16:30:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they can only remain positive if the trend being measured continues to support the direction of the A/D line itself
2010-10-19 16:31:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO measures the speed relationship between the 19 day and 39 day EMA's
2010-10-19 16:31:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM shows you the distance between these two EMA's
2010-10-19 16:31:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if you go back to basic charting techniques
2010-10-19 16:32:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have probably realized that when the shorter term EMA is above its intermediate term EMA, it's extremely hard for the price pattern to TREND lower
2010-10-19 16:32:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will usually find support first at its shorter term EMA
2010-10-19 16:32:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then when enough weakness is available
2010-10-19 16:32:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the intermediate term EMA is then tested
2010-10-19 16:32:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if that breaks
2010-10-19 16:33:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then the shorter term EMA is going to cross below it's cousin
2010-10-19 16:33:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when that happens THEN you're able to trend
2010-10-19 16:33:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as you are no longer in a configuration that would support a directional trend
2010-10-19 16:33:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the same thing here applies
2010-10-19 16:34:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a very simple way of understanding the amount of capital that is available for investment
2010-10-19 16:34:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the lesser the amount...the more likely prices will not be able to support levels accomplished and you start to decay
2010-10-19 16:35:20 [Message] doc -> Chat: If tomorrows breadth is negative, and we break the MCO trendline, does that speak to a longer correction to you than through Thurs of this week?
2010-10-19 16:35:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, if anything else, remember the McClellan tools only measure the velocity and amplitude of money flow
2010-10-19 16:35:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope - too early for that to happen
2010-10-19 16:36:08 [Message] doc -> Chat: second question
2010-10-19 16:36:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the components must also be in gear
2010-10-19 16:36:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the best you're likely to get is choppy price action
2010-10-19 16:36:50 [Message] doc -> Chat: what about the divergent MCO levels from July 1 and the mildly broken level from late August, are they important to watch?
2010-10-19 16:37:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the current configuration
2010-10-19 16:37:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those lows should only be tested
2010-10-19 16:37:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they are broken
2010-10-19 16:37:56 [Message] doc -> Chat: then we broke it in late August and got beared up
2010-10-19 16:38:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we should have a multi week correction
2010-10-19 16:38:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: possibly pushing the MCSUM's all the way back to their zero lines
2010-10-19 16:38:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would caution getting beared up with the current configurations in place
2010-10-19 16:39:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will need more time for the pieces to fall into place for a multi month correctional period
2010-10-19 16:39:20 [Message] doc -> Chat: I'm not, just wondering what the technical expectations would be if we break the divergent low from July 1st a second time
2010-10-19 16:39:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...it would really depend on we got there
2010-10-19 16:39:43 [Message] doc -> Chat: we already broke it in late August, but nothing came of it
2010-10-19 16:39:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we do it tomorrow would be different if we got there in a week
2010-10-19 16:40:13 [Message] doc -> Chat: interesting
2010-10-19 16:40:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...because...
2010-10-19 16:40:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the NYAD EMA's
2010-10-19 16:40:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what do you see?
2010-10-19 16:40:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did the 19 cross the 39?
2010-10-19 16:40:54 [Message] doc -> Chat: no
2010-10-19 16:41:07 [Message] doc -> Chat: they were still separating till yest
2010-10-19 16:41:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...the MCO only measures the speed in which these EMA's are moving toward or away from each other
2010-10-19 16:41:19 [Message] doc -> Chat: ergo the MCSUM rising till yesterday
2010-10-19 16:41:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key is knowing the distance between them
2010-10-19 16:41:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes
2010-10-19 16:41:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like today
2010-10-19 16:42:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market "speeds up" to reach a goal it "might had forgotten about"
2010-10-19 16:42:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what usually happens under this kind of scenario
2010-10-19 16:42:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the correction - or pause - is news related and/or created
2010-10-19 16:42:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I again want to stress the back drop of today's decline
2010-10-19 16:43:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: has it been any different than what we had during the 2008-2009 collapse?
2010-10-19 16:44:06 [Message] doc -> Chat: Since the Hurst low was due this Wed-Thurs and there had been no fulfillment till today, by late last week I was anticipating a "crash-like event" to correct the situation, or else the cycle low was going to be one of the occasional non-events
2010-10-19 16:44:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or...
2010-10-19 16:44:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a low in which prices move up and out of
2010-10-19 16:44:50 [Message] doc -> Chat: sure, but even then you get a pause or plateau usually
2010-10-19 16:44:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's nice when prices do find a way to decline into an anticipated low
2010-10-19 16:44:59 [Message] doc -> Chat: this has been a continual grind up
2010-10-19 16:45:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2010-10-19 16:45:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and how many bears came out today I wonder?
2010-10-19 16:45:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I had an intriguing discussion over on TT on Friday regarding this whole shake out
2010-10-19 16:46:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: talk of crashes and black Monday were prominent
2010-10-19 16:46:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's only one day
2010-10-19 16:46:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how about this?
2010-10-19 16:46:46 [Message] doc -> Chat: Another reason I anticipated a sharp correction this week is that the USD index finally hit a 3 year uptrend line and, of course, bounced and with that we got a sharp correction in oil, gold, silver and other commodities
2010-10-19 16:46:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do you believe that the market is entitled - given the advance we've had - that a snapback to both the rising bottoms line and the MCSUM gap resistance zone would be anticipated on the MCSUM?
2010-10-19 16:47:41 [Message] doc -> Chat: sure
2010-10-19 16:47:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...everyone pretty much knew that a bounce in the dollar...and a decline in gold...was a good bet
2010-10-19 16:48:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2010-10-19 16:48:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I remember - I think it was two weeks ago - that Tonny and I had a discussion on this very subject
2010-10-19 16:48:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when gold had a hard down day
2010-10-19 16:48:45 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: That is right. Early, however
2010-10-19 16:48:50 [Message] doc -> Chat: sure but that was a fake out
2010-10-19 16:48:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no - not early
2010-10-19 16:48:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: insightful
2010-10-19 16:49:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was a "shot off the bow"
2010-10-19 16:49:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remember what I said?
2010-10-19 16:49:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the market generally doesn't turn on a dime?
2010-10-19 16:50:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so here we had gold showing a one day move against a trend
2010-10-19 16:50:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that I added to a position on this
2010-10-19 16:50:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once we reached the target on...in this case...my NSU position last week
2010-10-19 16:50:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whoosh
2010-10-19 16:50:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we are
2010-10-19 16:50:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (still holding, btw)
2010-10-19 16:50:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: dollar looks very wave 4th ish here
2010-10-19 16:51:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would make sense
2010-10-19 16:51:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would compliment gold
2010-10-19 16:51:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with gold being the head solider here
2010-10-19 16:51:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as gold has gone...so has equities
2010-10-19 16:51:44 [Message] doc -> Chat: So back to our current chart, for the continued IT bullish stance and for this downdraft to be purely correctional, we would want the MCO to stay above the "bulls last stance", or last resort, above the lows of August on this sequence, right?
2010-10-19 16:51:48 [Message] darris -> Chat: You could could make a case then that the equities might do something like Gold did, if one thinks today was a shot across the bow.
2010-10-19 16:51:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would then confirm equities also being in wave 4
2010-10-19 16:52:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: absolutely Darris
2010-10-19 16:52:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact - how many times have we all seen prices rally to over head resistance and then take a pause
2010-10-19 16:52:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to either regroup or as a finishing move??
2010-10-19 16:53:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes Doc - it held before
2010-10-19 16:53:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and our "expectation" is for it to hold again
2010-10-19 16:53:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "until proven otherwise"
2010-10-19 16:54:00 [Message] doc -> Chat: well, NYMO didn't quite hold, but close
2010-10-19 16:54:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's fine for now
2010-10-19 16:54:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a lot of "bad news" today
2010-10-19 16:54:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus there were many bears just itching for a decline
2010-10-19 16:54:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to pile on
2010-10-19 16:54:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: technically
2010-10-19 16:54:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything remains orderly
2010-10-19 16:54:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to maintain this order
2010-10-19 16:55:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see a bounce higher in the MCO tomorrow
2010-10-19 16:55:52 [Message] doc -> Chat: To be fair to the bears, the MCSUM advance from +750 to +950 has been rather raggedy
2010-10-19 16:55:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it has
2010-10-19 16:56:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls are tired...and should be
2010-10-19 16:56:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we've made mentioned of that for a couple of weeks now
2010-10-19 16:56:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone in this room knows what's going on
2010-10-19 16:56:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how to interpret it is what we try to work with
2010-10-19 16:57:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...nothing is surprising
2010-10-19 16:57:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what would be surprising is for further weakness tomorrow
2010-10-19 16:57:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we get it...fine...we adjust our blueprint
2010-10-19 16:57:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in no way, shape, or form do we have a technical sell signal at this juncture
2010-10-19 16:58:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's only a shake out
2010-10-19 16:58:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: based on the same reasoning that gave us the crash of 2008...banks
2010-10-19 16:58:35 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: the dollar 4 looks just about done-can the equities be that close, as well?
2010-10-19 16:58:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you apply a 20 day EMA on the Dollar chart...what do you see?
2010-10-19 17:00:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where did we close?
2010-10-19 17:00:10 [Message] darris -> Chat: Normally, we do not top out very quickly after closing on a new recovery high like we did on Monday. Normally, we see a lot of intraday failed rallies back near a recent high and several days of end of day sell offs.
2010-10-19 17:00:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...part of the rounding top with divergent MCSUM
2010-10-19 17:00:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or at least the MCSUM is at least below the +250 level
2010-10-19 17:01:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to answer the question on the dollar
2010-10-19 17:01:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we closed exactly on the 20 day EMA today
2010-10-19 17:04:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more than likely though
2010-10-19 17:04:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: most stock market tops tend to have rounding tops
2010-10-19 17:04:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: reversal bars (key or otherwise) can and do happen within the confines of these kind of patterns
2010-10-19 17:05:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but a lot of this really depends on the internal strength, or lack there of, of the trend moving into said top
2010-10-19 17:05:34 [Message] doc -> Chat: "most stock market tops tend to have rounding tops" except perhaps emotional ones, like a blow off in gold or silver
2010-10-19 17:05:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today would be more of a climber losing his footing and slipping
2010-10-19 17:06:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold and silver don't trade the same way as stocks
2010-10-19 17:06:12 [Message] doc -> Chat: exactly
2010-10-19 17:06:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold and silver have rounding bottoms and spiked tops
2010-10-19 17:06:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: equities are opposite
2010-10-19 17:06:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: reason?
2010-10-19 17:06:37 [Message] doc -> Chat: emotions
2010-10-19 17:06:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all has to do with the amount of liquidity...(emotions to a lesser degree)
2010-10-19 17:07:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the precious metals
2010-10-19 17:07:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: emotions always run high
2010-10-19 17:07:11 [Message] doc -> Chat: equities have panic bottoms and gold has panic tops
2010-10-19 17:07:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is anyone really seeing any emotion with the metals as yet?
2010-10-19 17:07:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes sir
2010-10-19 17:07:57 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat:
2010-10-19 17:08:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there isn't any other comments or questions on the combo chart, I'm going to move on
2010-10-19 17:08:08 [Message] doc -> Chat: sounds good
2010-10-19 17:08:25 [Message] doc -> Chat: nice discussions, thanks
2010-10-19 17:08:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking back at the composite NYSE breadth chart
2010-10-19 17:08:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's why we're all here
2010-10-19 17:08:34 [Message] darris -> Chat: Gold certainly has a price structure now to indicate an intermediate term top for some period of weeks
2010-10-19 17:08:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know
2010-10-19 17:08:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ummm....that seems to be consensus
2010-10-19 17:09:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the fundamentals remain really strong here
2010-10-19 17:09:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless
2010-10-19 17:09:25 [Message] darris -> Chat: However, it should get below 1325 soon if that is going to be the case, so still above for now
2010-10-19 17:09:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless we're not (and I'm talking the US here) we're not controlling the global steering wheel as we assume we are
2010-10-19 17:09:59 [Message] doc -> Chat: unless you change your 20 ema on the USD to a 50 ema, lol
2010-10-19 17:10:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-10-19 17:10:28 [Message] doc -> Chat: then gold has more room for down here
2010-10-19 17:10:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course, I'm referring to the 1/4 point increase in China's rates and this maybe pushed gold lower?
2010-10-19 17:10:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: being that China is the big fish
2010-10-19 17:11:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since they basically control worldwide manufacturing
2010-10-19 17:11:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could they be the body that controls the direction of gold?
2010-10-19 17:11:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something to watch and ponder
2010-10-19 17:11:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we do know though
2010-10-19 17:11:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that it isn't inflation that drives gold prices
2010-10-19 17:12:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what drives gold prices is the amount of excess in the system
2010-10-19 17:12:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this excess creates inflation down the road
2010-10-19 17:12:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not in the here and now
2010-10-19 17:12:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it takes at least a year to see it show up
2010-10-19 17:13:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so when you read comments about QE2
2010-10-19 17:13:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and how it effects the market
2010-10-19 17:13:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this current type of stimulus won't be felt by the equity markets for at least 12 months
2010-10-19 17:13:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what the market works off of is what was given to it a year ago
2010-10-19 17:14:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look back in time - and to really pinpoint it - go back the historic average of 18 months
2010-10-19 17:14:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what was the FED doing then?
2010-10-19 17:14:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what was it what Congress passed?
2010-10-19 17:14:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: answer to both: historic stimulus
2010-10-19 17:15:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why the NYAD has been above to move to higher highs
2010-10-19 17:15:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these higher highs represent the total amount of money available for investment in the markets once all of the other asset classes are fully valued
2010-10-19 17:16:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: FED policy takes a while to be felt
2010-10-19 17:16:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the 2005-2007 period
2010-10-19 17:16:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the FED kept tightening
2010-10-19 17:16:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and tightening
2010-10-19 17:16:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and FINALLY it reached stocks 18-24 months later
2010-10-19 17:16:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: add a bit of bad news and viola!
2010-10-19 17:17:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: onward
2010-10-19 17:17:19 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I think short term, gold has topped, front running the coming 5th on equities - as did it's shot across the bow vs that of equities=twt
2010-10-19 17:17:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be
2010-10-19 17:17:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the path of least resistance remains higher for now
2010-10-19 17:18:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it bothers me, as a contrarian, that everyone has been looking for a top in gold every single day for the last 3 weeks
2010-10-19 17:18:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this always leaves us open to the question that
2010-10-19 17:18:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if everyone is thinking the same way
2010-10-19 17:18:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is then able to react to it
2010-10-19 17:18:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how much of a move might there be?
2010-10-19 17:18:46 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I only started looking yesterday, lol
2010-10-19 17:19:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you know by reading message boards that you are the exception
2010-10-19 17:19:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you are a day trader
2010-10-19 17:19:11 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: I am usually early
2010-10-19 17:19:12 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: too true
2010-10-19 17:19:13 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat:
2010-10-19 17:19:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you're rather myopic
2010-10-19 17:19:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2010-10-19 17:19:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a technician
2010-10-19 17:19:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we ALL knew that we couldn't keep going higher and higher
2010-10-19 17:19:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we KNEW that eventually there would be an accident
2010-10-19 17:19:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it happens all the time
2010-10-19 17:20:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a "reasonable expectation"
2010-10-19 17:20:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the challenge for us then is to know when the greatest possible exists for this to happen
2010-10-19 17:20:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when the momentum of a move is great as it has been
2010-10-19 17:20:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's very likely that we're not going to catch the top (or bottom)
2010-10-19 17:20:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless you play it every single day
2010-10-19 17:20:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so why bother?
2010-10-19 17:21:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: better to go with structure - a set up
2010-10-19 17:21:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near parabolic trends are to be avoided
2010-10-19 17:21:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we all have learned that
2010-10-19 17:21:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some the easy way - others the hard way
2010-10-19 17:22:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's just too much out there to get married to anything
2010-10-19 17:22:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just so you can say "I picked the top"
2010-10-19 17:22:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "look how great a trader I am!"
2010-10-19 17:22:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: poppycock
2010-10-19 17:22:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: looking for home runs leads to far too many strike outs
2010-10-19 17:22:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: absolutely
2010-10-19 17:23:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I liken trading to baseball
2010-10-19 17:23:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where if you just get a hit 30% of the time you get into the hall of fame
2010-10-19 17:23:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we tend to have more losing trades than winning ones
2010-10-19 17:24:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the adage of cutting your losses and letting your profits run really does make a lot of trading sense
2010-10-19 17:24:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all you want are singles
2010-10-19 17:24:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like in baseball
2010-10-19 17:24:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you go for average, and make contact, you'll have your occasional double, triple or home run
2010-10-19 17:25:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we just don't want to strike out
2010-10-19 17:25:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO moved below its zero line today
2010-10-19 17:25:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's now at the lowest level since the beginning of September
2010-10-19 17:26:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the components here also remain above their zero line
2010-10-19 17:26:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're in some sort of correction
2010-10-19 17:26:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NDX data
2010-10-19 17:26:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we have the most amount of technical damage here
2010-10-19 17:26:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the NDX breadth MCO moving to lower lows
2010-10-19 17:27:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is leaving the potential of a divergent top in the NDX breadth MCSUM
2010-10-19 17:27:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components
2010-10-19 17:27:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we have the 10% Trend at its zero line
2010-10-19 17:28:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would indicate that we should see a bounce off this line as soon as Wednesday
2010-10-19 17:28:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NDX price chart
2010-10-19 17:28:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see, that with today's decline, we have now snapped back to what was previous overhead resistance
2010-10-19 17:29:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so although we have negative technical action here internally
2010-10-19 17:29:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the NDX breadth MCSUM still well above the +500 level
2010-10-19 17:29:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices are not likely to begin any kind of trend to the downside at this juncture
2010-10-19 17:29:48 [Message] doc -> Chat: like its NYA cousin, the mco is also resting on the uptrend line
2010-10-19 17:30:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with any further pause finding probable support at the consolidation area seen at the 2000 price level
2010-10-19 17:30:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thank you for pointing that out Doc
2010-10-19 17:30:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...right on it
2010-10-19 17:31:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a bounce off this line, in conjunction of a zero line snapback, would be anticipated near term
2010-10-19 17:31:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO continues to support corrective activity
2010-10-19 17:32:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and notice how we're finding resistance now just below the +750 level on the SPX breadth MCSUM
2010-10-19 17:32:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same thing with the OEX data
2010-10-19 17:32:36 [Message] darris -> Chat: Not material to our context here, but all the NDX did today was fill the Google earnings gap up. Apple did not even trade at the AH low from Monday night (292), and I do not think it even traded below 300 in the day session today.
2010-10-19 17:33:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...seems like cooler heads prevailed after Europe closed
2010-10-19 17:33:36 [Message] darris -> Chat: The direction of Google, Apple, IBM, and GS is UP
2010-10-19 17:33:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice where the Dow breadth MCO is topping out
2010-10-19 17:34:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes..seems like GS had a good day shorting the market!
2010-10-19 17:34:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it closed up 3 points today
2010-10-19 17:35:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice where the MID breadth MCO is topping out
2010-10-19 17:35:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when was the last time you saw the markets top out with the MID caps showing this kind of strength?
2010-10-19 17:36:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same question with the SML?
2010-10-19 17:36:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only turning slightly above the +500 level
2010-10-19 17:36:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and down less than a point
2010-10-19 17:37:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM breadth MCO took it on the chin today
2010-10-19 17:37:33 [Message] doc -> Chat: Agreed, question only is whether and how big and when the correction
2010-10-19 17:37:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCSUM's all pretty much above +500
2010-10-19 17:38:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's unlikely we're going to see anything deep
2010-10-19 17:38:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we do
2010-10-19 17:38:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will tend to be erased quite quickly
2010-10-19 17:38:24 [Message] doc -> Chat: so for instance
2010-10-19 17:38:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until the bears get an upper hand here
2010-10-19 17:38:41 [Message] doc -> Chat: do the technicals support a .238 correction?
2010-10-19 17:38:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's just going to be choppy
2010-10-19 17:38:49 [Message] doc -> Chat: a .38?
2010-10-19 17:38:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: .236 would be likely
2010-10-19 17:39:01 [Message] doc -> Chat: from the Aug lows
2010-10-19 17:39:17 [Message] doc -> Chat: right
2010-10-19 17:39:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how about this?
2010-10-19 17:39:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how about a snapback to the late July/early August tops?
2010-10-19 17:40:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: take some excesses off the table
2010-10-19 17:40:23 [Message] doc -> Chat: eyeballing it, looks like a .38 retrace
2010-10-19 17:40:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: give ourselves some time to digest...lead us into the elections
2010-10-19 17:40:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like it me as well
2010-10-19 17:40:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but Elliott wise we can't overlap
2010-10-19 17:41:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this juncture
2010-10-19 17:41:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2010-10-19 17:41:15 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: can be a 2 of a 3 up, and not overlap easily
2010-10-19 17:41:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm not willing to jump on Fibonacci retracement wagon as yet
2010-10-19 17:41:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's only been one day
2010-10-19 17:42:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I want more proof
2010-10-19 17:42:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: and, the retrace would fit perfectly, in that context
2010-10-19 17:42:16 [Message] doc -> Chat: So would you consider dollar cost averaging long at the .236 area with half and the rest at .38?
2010-10-19 17:42:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I've seen too many hard down days fully recovered the next day over the last several weeks
2010-10-19 17:42:33 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I'm talking after the upcoming fifth I perceive still coming
2010-10-19 17:42:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm not a fan of dollar cost averaging
2010-10-19 17:43:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would rather wait for the market do what it's "supposed" to do and climb that wave
2010-10-19 17:43:06 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I still believe the fifth will be 4 of 1 of 3
2010-10-19 17:43:16 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: 5 of 1 of 3
2010-10-19 17:43:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so many counts...so little time
2010-10-19 17:43:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all I know right now
2010-10-19 17:43:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the odds have increased that we are in a 4th wave
2010-10-19 17:43:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of one degree or the other
2010-10-19 17:44:07 [Message] doc -> Chat: Fib, I've been away a bit, busy at work. Did you post going long your cores?
2010-10-19 17:44:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be a 4th wave as part of a extension or a higher degree one
2010-10-19 17:44:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...a funny thing happened on that
2010-10-19 17:44:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the answer to your question is no
2010-10-19 17:44:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I did NOT switch my cores
2010-10-19 17:44:51 [Message] doc -> Chat: okay, thanks
2010-10-19 17:44:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have been playing with my play money only
2010-10-19 17:45:14 [Message] doc -> Chat: Been waiting for the pullback like me?
2010-10-19 17:45:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the main technical reason was because of the height of the MCSUM's
2010-10-19 17:45:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much
2010-10-19 17:45:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a different objective there when it comes to the cores
2010-10-19 17:45:45 [Message] tracca -> Chat: 10% index of the components is below only in XLI
2010-10-19 17:45:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we can take some air out...that would be more palatable for me on the Cores
2010-10-19 17:46:09 [Message] doc -> Chat: I hear you
2010-10-19 17:46:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thanks for that Tracca
2010-10-19 17:46:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI was our ugly sister
2010-10-19 17:46:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was the sector worth shorting
2010-10-19 17:46:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me see what it did
2010-10-19 17:47:09 [Message] doc -> Chat: I sensed in mid Sept that toooo many people were looking for that pullback and that it just might not come... and it really didn't come, till now maybe.
2010-10-19 17:47:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...I sure don't like the look of the XLI data
2010-10-19 17:47:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone was looking for a September decline
2010-10-19 17:47:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then it became October
2010-10-19 17:47:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2010-10-19 17:48:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I saw one or two posts over the weekend from a couple of folks who believed that we would see a "crash" between now and the end of the month
2010-10-19 17:48:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today must had gotten those believers salivating
2010-10-19 17:48:53 [Message] doc -> Chat: That always happens in Oct, lol
2010-10-19 17:48:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yup
2010-10-19 17:48:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every year
2010-10-19 17:49:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I hear same thing in December - "remember the November puts!"
2010-10-19 17:49:20 [Message] doc -> Chat: I'm only looking for a "crash-like event", lol
2010-10-19 17:50:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking quickly at the volume MCSUM's
2010-10-19 17:50:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the strongest areas of money flow continue to be with the mid and small caps
2010-10-19 17:50:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this can only occur, by the way, when liquidity levels are plentiful
2010-10-19 17:51:07 [Message] doc -> Chat: BTW, looking at the raw AD and UD lines for XLI, there is now HUGE divergences on both
2010-10-19 17:51:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if the market does decline from here, it WON'T be because of liquidity
2010-10-19 17:51:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be because of "something else"
2010-10-19 17:51:33 [Message] darris -> Chat: On the Bond CEF data that Randy provides, there has been weakness creeping in the last couple of weeks. It is very interesting that this same type of action occurred last year around this time as well. There are still some things which show end of year book keeping at the end of this month. I only point this out because the Oct 2009 correction was swift, sharp, and quick. We then floated right back up in early November, as far a the effect it had on equities.
2010-10-19 17:52:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice catch Darris...
2010-10-19 17:52:32 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes, thanks Darris
2010-10-19 17:52:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was last week that I think I mentioned to start watching the CEF's...they had been looking like they were finally losing upside momentum
2010-10-19 17:52:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me get the chart
2010-10-19 17:53:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://www.technicalwatch.com/ad10/breadthtnx101510.gif
2010-10-19 17:53:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still trending up though
2010-10-19 17:53:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this not at all indicative of a market making an important top
2010-10-19 17:53:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so rest easy
2010-10-19 17:54:04 [Message] doc -> Chat: I know that 2 weeks ago I pointed out the same thing for XLE (AD and UD divergences) and it kept going up and up. I finally reasoned that with USD dependent sectors, one may have to make allowances for strong directional moves in the USD that might affect that sector independent of AD and UD lines.
2010-10-19 17:54:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...
2010-10-19 17:54:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you are talking one sector
2010-10-19 17:54:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: each piece of data has their own character
2010-10-19 17:54:47 [Message] doc -> Chat: sure, should be pure TA, right
2010-10-19 17:55:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...with some "disclaimers"
2010-10-19 17:55:19 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: a fifth down in the US Dollar coinciding with a fifth up in equities should set up a fair move down
2010-10-19 17:55:20 [Message] doc -> Chat: Looking at XLE or XLI AD and UD lines vs price action "should" matter
2010-10-19 17:55:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for that sector, yes it does
2010-10-19 17:55:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but also remember
2010-10-19 17:56:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: weighted indexes can play tricks with you and go further than you believe necessary
2010-10-19 17:56:14 [Message] doc -> Chat: yes and the AD and UD lines said that price was overextended, so what did it do? Got more over-extended!
2010-10-19 17:56:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it wouldn't had had that chance if the broader NYAD line was declining
2010-10-19 17:57:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's hard to fight the bigger tide
2010-10-19 17:57:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you might find an eddy or two
2010-10-19 17:57:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they're usually gone pretty quickly
2010-10-19 17:57:49 [Message] darris -> Chat: Last year I got all beared up when we looked at the Municipal Bonds as far as their part of the Bond CEF make up. At the time the news was that California would default. I just feel there is a chance that there is mechanical selling or squaring that goes on with companies that have end of year book keeping this month. The NYSE commons today were down 2% on an equally weighted basis, but the negative money flow seemed a little light.
2010-10-19 17:58:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are very close to "oversold" now
2010-10-19 17:58:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good observation
2010-10-19 17:58:37 [Message] doc -> Chat: all i know is that the XLE UD is making lower highs for 5 months while price is noticeably higher. I think it is the USD effect, that's a better explanation then anything else I've heard.
2010-10-19 17:58:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's remain "overbought"
2010-10-19 17:59:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's are a little on the "overbought" side except the NDX which is now neutral
2010-10-19 17:59:24 [Message] darris -> Chat: On the Energy sector, Randy has a data base of about 150 related stocks, and that data set blew the April highs away last week. May have come back down to earth today with Oil down a lot, but besides PM issues, it is the only sector to take out the April highs.
2010-10-19 17:59:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapbacks are like that
2010-10-19 18:00:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.95
2010-10-19 18:00:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.12
2010-10-19 18:00:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "oversold"
2010-10-19 18:00:38 [Message] doc -> Chat: Maybe the DP AD and UD lines for XLE are off then?
2010-10-19 18:00:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's quite a move in one day
2010-10-19 18:00:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Carl doesn't show the AD and UD lines
2010-10-19 18:01:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: he shows the McClellan's which measure those lines
2010-10-19 18:01:10 [Message] doc -> Chat: the AD lines are there
2010-10-19 18:01:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: link?
2010-10-19 18:01:29 [Message] doc -> Chat: it is in the index of links
2010-10-19 18:01:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the index of links?
2010-10-19 18:01:44 [Message] doc -> Chat: just below the mco charts you look at
2010-10-19 18:01:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: huh?
2010-10-19 18:01:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one sec
2010-10-19 18:01:55 [Message] doc -> Chat: there is a list of links
2010-10-19 18:01:56 [Message] tonny.holdorf -> Chat: http://www.decisionpoint.com/prime/dailycharts/adnyc6mo.html
2010-10-19 18:02:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...thank you guys
2010-10-19 18:02:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: didn't know this
2010-10-19 18:02:33 [Message] doc -> Chat: just look two spaces over from the MCO link and you see 6 month AD, that incl AD and UD lines for all
2010-10-19 18:02:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thanks again
2010-10-19 18:02:49 [Message] doc -> Chat: take a look at XLE and tell me what you think
2010-10-19 18:02:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's compare them with ETF site
2010-10-19 18:03:34 [Message] doc -> Chat: sorry I caught you in the middle of your open 10s
2010-10-19 18:03:53 [Message] doc -> Chat: least now you know about the DP AD lines
2010-10-19 18:04:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://www.etfinvestmentoutlook.com/etf.php?s=XLE&c=breadth_advance_decline_avg_d
2010-10-19 18:04:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks the same to me
2010-10-19 18:04:36 [Message] doc -> Chat: Do you see on DP what I mean about the AD and UD lines for XLE diverging badly with price?
2010-10-19 18:05:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's volume - http://www.etfinvestmentoutlook.com/etf.php?s=XLE&c=breadth_volume_avg_d
2010-10-19 18:05:20 [Message] doc -> Chat: I mean in Oct here, we are below the Aug peaks while price has blown it away
2010-10-19 18:05:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...you knew that the MCSUM's were still rising
2010-10-19 18:05:57 [Message] darris -> Chat: Is it known how many components Carl uses for the XLE data? Off the top of your head, no big deal otherwise
2010-10-19 18:05:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only way that can happen is if the underlying data is rising
2010-10-19 18:06:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so you wouldn't only look for the top to happen until the trend has reversed
2010-10-19 18:06:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I believe he uses the entire index
2010-10-19 18:06:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that all of the charts here are now sourced from Stock Charts
2010-10-19 18:07:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so they use the same source
2010-10-19 18:07:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would think that it's measuring all of the components
2010-10-19 18:07:46 [Message] doc -> Chat: To be pure, the XLE AD and UD lines should only include the stocks in the ETF
2010-10-19 18:08:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.15
2010-10-19 18:09:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .89
2010-10-19 18:09:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and notice that the NASDAQ Open 10 was "overbought" Friday...and now rated neutral
2010-10-19 18:09:37 [Message] darris -> Chat: Correct, I just meant what is the absolute number of components being used? 20, 50, 100.....Like the SOX (18 stocks) a small number of components can make a big difference. Randy uses about 170 components for the SOX-EW data set, and the index price is markedly different than the SOX. Correlated, but amplitude not close.
2010-10-19 18:09:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.45
2010-10-19 18:10:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know...but I'm sure if you sent off a note to Carl he would tell you - my guess it included the makeup of the ETF only
2010-10-19 18:10:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .96
2010-10-19 18:10:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2010-10-19 18:10:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was a nice day for the bears
2010-10-19 18:10:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though it took a lot of huffing and puffing to do so
2010-10-19 18:10:42 [Message] doc -> Chat: Darris, I have no idea what Carl uses to get the XLE AD and UD lines, except to hope that he only uses each and every component of the ETF, nothing more, nothing less
2010-10-19 18:10:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would make good sense that he does
2010-10-19 18:11:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: he has the source for it
2010-10-19 18:11:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the structures match up with ETF
2010-10-19 18:11:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although
2010-10-19 18:11:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Arthur Hill runs ETF
2010-10-19 18:12:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and he probably has access to Stock Charts since he blogs for them
2010-10-19 18:12:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in any event
2010-10-19 18:12:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like an "oversold" or "overbought" oscillator
2010-10-19 18:12:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices can maintain their extremes for longer than one wants to wait from time to time
2010-10-19 18:13:12 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: your take - 4 over then, or super close-considering the open 10's, ect.?
2010-10-19 18:13:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why we like to wait for confirmed divergence before proceeding
2010-10-19 18:13:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe a triangle four...A complete?
2010-10-19 18:13:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bounce higher for wave B tomorrow - etc.
2010-10-19 18:14:03 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2010-10-19 18:14:07 [Message] darris -> Chat: doc, I can find out how many components are in the ETF then. XOM CVX SLB COP OXY APA HAL DVN APC EOG MRO BHI NOV HES SE BTU CHK PXD NBL WMB MUR CAM FTI SWN EP DNR VLO CNX MEE SUN NBR RDC RRC DO COG TSO EQT QEP HP
2010-10-19 18:14:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it makes the best amount of sense
2010-10-19 18:14:21 [Message] darris -> Chat: doc, there they are, all 39 of them
2010-10-19 18:14:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...anyway...I am way over time here
2010-10-19 18:14:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I have to get going
2010-10-19 18:14:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any other questions?
2010-10-19 18:15:05 [Message] doc -> Chat: nope, thanks for the review
2010-10-19 18:15:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pleasure
2010-10-19 18:15:17 [Message] darris -> Chat: Let's just work on where to rebuy, or go long going forward here. See you Thursday
2010-10-19 18:15:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just keep focused here
2010-10-19 18:15:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: try not to let the emotion get to you (us)
2010-10-19 18:15:29 [Message] doc -> Chat: I agree
2010-10-19 18:15:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...with that
2010-10-19 18:15:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days
2010-10-19 18:15:48 [Message] doc -> Chat: This chat room is looking for a bottom, not a top.
2010-10-19 18:15:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll meet up again on Thursday
2010-10-19 18:15:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2010-10-19 18:16:39 [Message] darris -> Chat: doc, I could certainly make a case that a January or April like top is being formed
2010-10-19 18:17:07 [Message] darris -> Chat: But it should take into November to fully form, or round off, so to speak
2010-10-19 18:17:53 [Message] doc -> Chat: Well that is consistent with a Hurst 20wk low, a bounce and then a failure at some point, be it Nov or Dec
2010-10-19 18:18:51 [Message] darris -> Chat: Time to stay Alert then. Have a good evening!!
2010-10-19 18:18:52 [Message] doc -> Chat: Generally I wouldn't expect an immediate IT top just after a 20wk low, but it could happen at any time
2010-10-19 18:19:03 [Message] doc -> Chat: you too!
2010-10-19 18:19:07 [Message] doc -> Chat: good night all

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