All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.

PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at

Sign up Calendar Latest Topics

Note: This topic is locked. No new replies will be accepted.

  Author   Comment  

Posts: 4,888
Reply with quote  #1 
2011-10-18 16:00:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2011-10-18 16:00:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2011-10-18 16:00:15 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: very well, you?
2011-10-18 16:00:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hanging in there
2011-10-18 16:00:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: waiting for the market to finish pulling back to place my bets
2011-10-18 16:01:12 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2011-10-18 16:01:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ISEE, however, came in today at 77
2011-10-18 16:01:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still a lot of put buyers who have been "conditioned" to short the top of the range
2011-10-18 16:01:50 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: this Europe stuff bites
2011-10-18 16:02:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: strip it away, and what do you have?
2011-10-18 16:02:25 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: same old, just hate all the fake news
2011-10-18 16:02:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you like the idea of merchandising, right?
2011-10-18 16:02:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure, you got me, LOL
2011-10-18 16:03:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's think about this for a quick second
2011-10-18 16:03:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here we are at the top of the 2 month range
2011-10-18 16:03:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we already know that breadth of market is highly suggesting that a breakout to the upside is imminent
2011-10-18 16:03:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have met all downside price and time objectives
2011-10-18 16:04:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the very news item that has given us this same correction is still being played out on a day to day basis
2011-10-18 16:04:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yesterday is was bad news when the market was "overbought"
2011-10-18 16:04:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today it was good news, coincidentally, in the last hour
2011-10-18 16:05:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now we know that the market makers like to keep people on the fence until the last hour of trading
2011-10-18 16:05:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also know that
2011-10-18 16:05:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we get closer and closer to the final resolution to what got us here in the beginning is like a week away
2011-10-18 16:06:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that we have OPEX coming this Friday that is sure to burn, once again, all of the die hard bears
2011-10-18 16:06:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that this is just a way for large players to move into their positions BEFORE the actual breakout
2011-10-18 16:06:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: down over 200 yesterday
2011-10-18 16:06:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up 200 today
2011-10-18 16:07:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what happened...nothing
2011-10-18 16:07:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's important to strip away the fog in which specialists provide for merchandising
2011-10-18 16:07:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and follow what the technical condition of the market IS and work with that
2011-10-18 16:08:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2011-10-18 16:08:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if the news bothers you...turn it off
2011-10-18 16:08:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it has nothing to do with the technical condition of the market anyway
2011-10-18 16:09:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and only serves as a way to justify a direction or an outcome
2011-10-18 16:09:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market was "overbought" on Friday
2011-10-18 16:09:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the news of Europe on Monday partially relieved the "overbought" condition
2011-10-18 16:09:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we also know
2011-10-18 16:09:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that markets just don't lose all their steam in one day events
2011-10-18 16:10:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are going to be retests before we actually finish off the correction
2011-10-18 16:10:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and from what I remember from Thursday's chat
2011-10-18 16:10:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 1200 level on the cash SnP was likely to hold on the first test, but only a break below that level would MAYBE give us a 50% retracement
2011-10-18 16:10:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so it goes
2011-10-18 16:11:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2011-10-18 16:11:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving lower and testing the +50 level on Monday
2011-10-18 16:12:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO gave us our obligatory bounce off this same level today
2011-10-18 16:12:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we now have minimal near term bearish divergence in the pattern
2011-10-18 16:12:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the components here remain on a cross over buy signal
2011-10-18 16:12:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, short term. the bulls continue to keep control of the action
2011-10-18 16:13:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM
2011-10-18 16:13:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see that we did see our strongest gap higher where natural MCSUM resistance lies at the -250 level
2011-10-18 16:13:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that our next objective, therefore, is going to be the zero line
2011-10-18 16:14:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we should see our best opportunity for a pause that may last longer than 1 or 2 days
2011-10-18 16:14:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking ruler to monitor
2011-10-18 16:15:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we note that this MCSUM closed exactly at its declining tops line from the highs of last February
2011-10-18 16:15:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which should also provide some stopping, if not pausing, power to the uptrend
2011-10-18 16:15:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind though
2011-10-18 16:15:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that if we do break above both of these levels simultaneously
2011-10-18 16:16:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is our sign that the strength of the is new uptrend is even more powerful than what we give it credit for at this juncture
2011-10-18 16:16:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that we once we see an action we usually see an equal and opposite reaction
2011-10-18 16:16:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could be looking at some sort of balance between the August crash and the current period
2011-10-18 16:17:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, in this case, a quick melt up to the top of the prior horizontal range could then be the expectation
2011-10-18 16:17:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for the short term traders
2011-10-18 16:17:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then fulfill the MCO's expectation given last week of a challenge of these same summer perice highs
2011-10-18 16:17:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though in quicker than anticipated fashion
2011-10-18 16:18:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Turn around Tuesday?
2011-10-18 16:18:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how it shakes out tomorrow
2011-10-18 16:18:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now for the good news
2011-10-18 16:18:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2011-10-18 16:19:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we look at the NYSE composite NYSE breadth MCSUM
2011-10-18 16:19:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that it is now leading the CO data to the upside
2011-10-18 16:19:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and has crossed the zero line with the power reversal we saw today
2011-10-18 16:20:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this should be respected for what it may suggest for the overall structural strength of this current uptrend
2011-10-18 16:20:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we pointed out last week
2011-10-18 16:20:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still have a ways to go to reach the declining tops line that's controlling this MCSUM pattern from here
2011-10-18 16:20:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the bottom line is...
2011-10-18 16:21:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears have now lost their control for both the short and intermediate term and the bulls have the reigns
2011-10-18 16:21:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...looking at the NYSE breadth MCO
2011-10-18 16:21:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it also bounced higher today
2011-10-18 16:21:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if it by some chance it can move to higher highs near term
2011-10-18 16:22:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then be enough internal energy to not only challenge the 1st quarter highs in the NYA index
2011-10-18 16:22:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it will increase the chances that we will move well above these same highs just as the internals have been whispering now for over 4 months now
2011-10-18 16:23:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the longer term blueprint remains intact
2011-10-18 16:23:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we're just trying to get a measurement of high, high might turn out to be
2011-10-18 16:24:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will we challenge the all time highs as suggested by the break to higher highs in the MCSUM back in February of this year suggested?
2011-10-18 16:24:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...the sentiment is certainly right for something like this happen, isn't it?
2011-10-18 16:24:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too much focus on Europe
2011-10-18 16:24:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too much focus on what we can't control or don't understand
2011-10-18 16:25:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with all of the hyperbole coming day by day from overseas
2011-10-18 16:25:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: eventually people are just going to "get over it"
2011-10-18 16:25:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and move back to making money
2011-10-18 16:26:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can only "cry wolf" so many times before you tend you ignore the warnings
2011-10-18 16:26:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: true, it's still there
2011-10-18 16:26:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but does it matter now?
2011-10-18 16:26:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will it in 6 months?
2011-10-18 16:26:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the last question our primarily focus for now
2011-10-18 16:26:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fashion wise, we're going to see higher highs
2011-10-18 16:26:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's little doubt about that
2011-10-18 16:26:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but market wise
2011-10-18 16:26:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're still building our base
2011-10-18 16:27:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course
2011-10-18 16:27:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could go on record and say that new all time highs are in the bag
2011-10-18 16:27:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that would be irresponsible to do so without the substance to back up the call
2011-10-18 16:27:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are building this substance now
2011-10-18 16:27:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we want continued structure
2011-10-18 16:27:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we want texture
2011-10-18 16:28:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we want continued accommodative monetary policy
2011-10-18 16:28:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we want new legislation to reach a dead end
2011-10-18 16:28:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and above all else
2011-10-18 16:28:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we want the majority to believe that it can't be done
2011-10-18 16:28:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's what we seem to have right now
2011-10-18 16:29:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NASDAQ data
2011-10-18 16:30:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here again we found MCO support yesterday at around the +50 level and bounced higher today
2011-10-18 16:30:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all the bulls want to do here is build what is referred to as a "complex pattern" above the zero line for as long as they can
2011-10-18 16:31:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is needed to push the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM to higher and higher highs
2011-10-18 16:31:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the objective, eventually, to move above the zero line
2011-10-18 16:31:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would mean that the 19 day EMA would cross above the 39 day EMA of the NAAD line
2011-10-18 16:31:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now we have a reading of -361
2011-10-18 16:31:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bears remain in control on an intermediate trending basis
2011-10-18 16:32:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they continue to lose more and more players as each day passes
2011-10-18 16:33:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NASDAQ breadth MCO components
2011-10-18 16:33:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we note that the 5% completed a nice snapback to its zero line today
2011-10-18 16:33:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now its important for the bulls to continue adding to this strength
2011-10-18 16:33:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping in mind that
2011-10-18 16:33:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the components are below their zero line, the specific EMA is moving lower
2011-10-18 16:34:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when it's above its zero line, that same component is now moving higher
2011-10-18 16:34:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the zero line showing no net gain on either direction
2011-10-18 16:34:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NASDAQ price bar today
2011-10-18 16:34:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had an outside range day
2011-10-18 16:35:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with yesterday being a lower close
2011-10-18 16:35:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this range day suggests that tomorrow will be an up close
2011-10-18 16:35:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it can be 1 point or 50
2011-10-18 16:35:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only that it should close higher
2011-10-18 16:35:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would pretty much put the speculative bears in a whole lot of hurt
2011-10-18 16:36:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less the speculative bulls who thought buying cheap call options with 5 days left to expiration would make them a killing
2011-10-18 16:37:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NDX breadth MCSUM
2011-10-18 16:37:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we have broken above the +250 level today
2011-10-18 16:37:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but more importantly
2011-10-18 16:37:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have now moved above the highs of last July
2011-10-18 16:37:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another pump higher tomorrow would then slam the door close on the bears for a while
2011-10-18 16:38:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here were less than 100 points from testing the summer highs now
2011-10-18 16:38:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the better substantive measure of the current strength here comes with the divergent NDX volume MCSUM structure that we've been pointing out now for over a month
2011-10-18 16:39:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2011-10-18 16:39:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we get another new high on the NDX breadth MCSUM in the next couple of days
2011-10-18 16:40:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCSUM breaking to the upside
2011-10-18 16:40:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the summer highs should be taken out without too much of a problem
2011-10-18 16:40:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: realistically though
2011-10-18 16:40:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a rest would be a good thing here before we really sparking on all cylinders
2011-10-18 16:41:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the SPX breadth MCO
2011-10-18 16:41:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see what was suggested earlier as a "complex" pattern above the zero line
2011-10-18 16:41:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice the short moves up and down of the last couple of weeks here
2011-10-18 16:42:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like the engine is just purring along
2011-10-18 16:42:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bulls remain in control for now
2011-10-18 16:42:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...and we closed above the 1225 level today
2011-10-18 16:42:40 [Message] tracca -> Chat: My concern is about the Put/Call ratio: OEX Put/Call Ratio is 1.65 while Equity is 0.68.  Does this indicate a very short term bearishness?
2011-10-18 16:42:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's look at the VIX for confirmation on the breakout
2011-10-18 16:43:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well, we moved below the 30 level on Friday
2011-10-18 16:43:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're back above 30 today
2011-10-18 16:43:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I would be near term cautious of this close leading to further gains
2011-10-18 16:44:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'll hit the P/C ratios later on
2011-10-18 16:44:12 [Message] tracca -> Chat: o.k thanks
2011-10-18 16:44:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but what I will say is that the ISEE number today was quite low
2011-10-18 16:44:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this indicator is really becoming my favorite option indicator
2011-10-18 16:44:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: primarily because very few use it
2011-10-18 16:44:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's really been hitting the mark now for over 2 months
2011-10-18 16:45:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway it had a reading today of 77
2011-10-18 16:45:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's something we usually see when the market is bottoming and not topping
2011-10-18 16:45:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I know that the CBOE P/C ratios have been bullish for some time now
2011-10-18 16:46:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we'll take a look at it after the TRIN
2011-10-18 16:46:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also note that, unless the market completely falls apart tomorrow, we'll be moving above the important +250 level on the SPX breadth MCSUM
2011-10-18 16:47:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we also know that the +250 level is our "do or die" line for the bears as the -250 level would be for the bulls during trending sequences
2011-10-18 16:47:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also the angle of ascent here
2011-10-18 16:47:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing weak showing there
2011-10-18 16:48:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact, it's a good study
2011-10-18 16:48:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at how the pattern bottomed
2011-10-18 16:48:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: found its first resistance at the -500 level on the MCSUM
2011-10-18 16:48:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: consolidated...paused
2011-10-18 16:48:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then found little in the way of selling and moved higher still
2011-10-18 16:48:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: found resistance at the -250 level
2011-10-18 16:48:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looked around for any takers on the sell side and there were none to be found
2011-10-18 16:48:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and up again we went
2011-10-18 16:49:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this time
2011-10-18 16:49:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had lower price lows which provided divergence
2011-10-18 16:49:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the shorts covered in mass
2011-10-18 16:49:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (and/or the FED came in with a "twist")
2011-10-18 16:49:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we haven't looked back
2011-10-18 16:50:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...and I know I sound like a broken record here
2011-10-18 16:50:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's a very important concept to understand in all this
2011-10-18 16:50:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we saw over the last several months had absolutely nothing to do with a lack of liquidity in the system
2011-10-18 16:51:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and THAT is the key to identifying the right side of the trend
2011-10-18 16:51:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices move lower when the cost of money moves higher
2011-10-18 16:51:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices more higher when the cost of money is cheap
2011-10-18 16:52:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so once the fear left and the tide pulled out
2011-10-18 16:52:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's now coming back in with the same amount of velocity from where it left
2011-10-18 16:52:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the "taking your arm and sloshing it back and forth in a full tub of water" analogy
2011-10-18 16:53:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once the MCO found support
2011-10-18 16:53:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it wasn't likely we were going to break below the tsunami lows
2011-10-18 16:53:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once we knew that
2011-10-18 16:53:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we needed was for time to allow the ebb and flow of the tides to mellow out
2011-10-18 16:53:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the meantime though
2011-10-18 16:54:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was a lot of fun moving back and forth within the range
2011-10-18 16:54:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 7% up
2011-10-18 16:54:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 7% down
2011-10-18 16:54:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: definitely a seat belt moment or two
2011-10-18 16:55:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it was only with breadth mechanics in which we were able to ride the seas as well as we did
2011-10-18 16:55:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: minus the occasional rogue wave or two...we did pretty well
2011-10-18 16:55:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK
2011-10-18 16:56:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....what do you think it means if the OEX breadth MCSUM is about to move above the +500 level?
2011-10-18 16:56:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now we have a reading of +478
2011-10-18 16:56:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and unless we just fall apart tomorrow
2011-10-18 16:56:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only will we be in and around this area of "escape velocity"
2011-10-18 16:57:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we have already broken above the July MCSUM highs
2011-10-18 16:57:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the declining tops line that is controlling the pattern
2011-10-18 16:58:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of the things we constantly have talked about in here is that may not always a good thing when the higher ranked stocks move ahead of the mass of troops
2011-10-18 16:58:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I'm wondering here
2011-10-18 16:58:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we know that the broader market moved to new all time highs earlier in the last decade
2011-10-18 16:58:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the OEX did not
2011-10-18 16:59:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so could it be that the OEX is about to play catch up with the broader market?
2011-10-18 16:59:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that with the nervousness of what's going on around the globe in the banking system for the last 10 years
2011-10-18 17:00:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that it's now time for these same issues to take a leadership role in playing catch up with the total return of equities themselves?
2011-10-18 17:00:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just throwing the idea out there
2011-10-18 17:00:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but going back to something in which we have jabbered about for this same 10 year period
2011-10-18 17:00:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: IF
2011-10-18 17:00:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and again we still don't have all the evidence here at this time
2011-10-18 17:01:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but IF this is a center point 3 up, and we just finished our 2nd wave (extension) with the same anxiety of the March 2009 lows but at a far higher price level
2011-10-18 17:02:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wouldn't the big boys also lead the market higher, or at least, play catch up so that we have all of the indices moving in sync during such a phase?
2011-10-18 17:02:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't know the answer to this
2011-10-18 17:02:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and maybe we shouldn't speculate this early in the advance
2011-10-18 17:02:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like we talked about 3 weeks ago
2011-10-18 17:02:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something different is happening here
2011-10-18 17:03:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I, myself, was never involved in something like the 1952-1965 market advance to provide a comparison
2011-10-18 17:04:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no mind to the old guy who keeps muttering to himself 
2011-10-18 17:04:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: LOL
2011-10-18 17:04:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the Dow breadth MCSUM
2011-10-18 17:04:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we're about to move above the +500 level as well
2011-10-18 17:04:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...moving into issues that provide safety might be the difference here
2011-10-18 17:05:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the CO breadth MCSUM
2011-10-18 17:05:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how it led initially but now is lagging the composite
2011-10-18 17:05:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the secondaries
2011-10-18 17:05:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still lagging there with the MCSUM
2011-10-18 17:06:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but maybe they need for the participants to continue build on their confidence before this historically high levels of liquidity are actually released into the market?
2011-10-18 17:06:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do not underestimate the power of the current liquidity pool
2011-10-18 17:06:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it has kept the market from falling apart from massive earthquakes
2011-10-18 17:07:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tsunami's
2011-10-18 17:07:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: two nuclear reactor meltdowns
2011-10-18 17:07:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and possible (and probable) meltdowns of whole countries
2011-10-18 17:07:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the word here is: respect
2011-10-18 17:08:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you are seeing how liquidity can have a determining factor on the value of an investment
2011-10-18 17:08:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: about a lower dollar
2011-10-18 17:08:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: used to be that stocks rallied on the strength of its currency
2011-10-18 17:09:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not any more
2011-10-18 17:09:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: talk about broken
2011-10-18 17:09:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: PPI is running at 7% and still bonds are holding
2011-10-18 17:09:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only way that can happen is...
2011-10-18 17:09:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is just too much money out there that needs a home
2011-10-18 17:10:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and only once this same liquidity pool is decreased then, and only then, will you see the bad topography that lies underneath
2011-10-18 17:10:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until then...our commodities have no choice but to rise
2011-10-18 17:10:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and even then
2011-10-18 17:10:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: P/E ratios for the SPX are in the mid teens
2011-10-18 17:11:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not the kind of numbers one would see at a top
2011-10-18 17:11:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have both the technical and fundamental conditions necessary for prices to continue moving higher
2011-10-18 17:11:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are there problems?
2011-10-18 17:11:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure
2011-10-18 17:11:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: have there always been problems?
2011-10-18 17:11:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure
2011-10-18 17:11:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the meantime
2011-10-18 17:12:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what's the longer term trend?
2011-10-18 17:12:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's what counts
2011-10-18 17:12:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as many have said
2011-10-18 17:12:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "price is king"
2011-10-18 17:12:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can worry about what could happen
2011-10-18 17:12:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but CAN it happen?
2011-10-18 17:13:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like the discussions on low volume rallies
2011-10-18 17:13:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where it's not the quantity of volume that's the QUALITY
2011-10-18 17:13:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's funny
2011-10-18 17:14:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone discusses what the markets should look like when it moves in one direction or the other
2011-10-18 17:14:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and without exception
2011-10-18 17:14:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone agrees that markets move higher on low volume
2011-10-18 17:14:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: has done so since inception
2011-10-18 17:14:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then when the market rallies on low volume
2011-10-18 17:14:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's somehow a problem
2011-10-18 17:14:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's always amazing to watch human psychology in this business
2011-10-18 17:15:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how the market will condition you into believing one thing when you already know that it's just part of what makes the market move in the first place
2011-10-18 17:15:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (shrug)
2011-10-18 17:16:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCSUM is also above its zero line now
2011-10-18 17:16:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we perceptively broke above the longer term declining tops line today
2011-10-18 17:17:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as the bulls are able to keep the MID breadth MCO above its zero line
2011-10-18 17:17:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the better the longer term outcome for the price structure itself
2011-10-18 17:17:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since breadth leads price
2011-10-18 17:17:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that the MCSUM broke above its declining tops line today
2011-10-18 17:18:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should be in position to take advantage of the eventual breakout of the price pattern's declining tops line which we are right at as of today's close
2011-10-18 17:18:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually...price will lag by about 1 or 2 days from the direction of money flow
2011-10-18 17:18:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with OPEX this week
2011-10-18 17:18:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could just as well chop
2011-10-18 17:19:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus you have bull divergence in place on the MCO
2011-10-18 17:19:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and nice gap expansion in the MCSUM
2011-10-18 17:19:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty good odds then of a successful long trade here
2011-10-18 17:20:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we get to the SML breadth MCSUM
2011-10-18 17:20:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we have already moved above the zero line
2011-10-18 17:20:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the declining tops line here at around the +250 level
2011-10-18 17:20:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but look at the price pattern
2011-10-18 17:20:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it has already moved above its resistance
2011-10-18 17:20:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the intraday lows today tested this same breakout line
2011-10-18 17:21:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be a test and go situation
2011-10-18 17:21:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and although we would like to see further consolidation here
2011-10-18 17:21:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it might not be necessary given, once again, the high levels of liquidity just itching to be put to work on a moments notice
2011-10-18 17:22:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the TM breadth MCSUM
2011-10-18 17:22:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here the bulls need to continue to work on getting everyone moving with the same velocity
2011-10-18 17:23:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is also the one area where many technicians are looking at for a reason why we should see some sort of hesitation here before we really see a confirmed breakout
2011-10-18 17:23:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why
2011-10-18 17:23:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could see these 2-3% moves in one day like we saw yesterday
2011-10-18 17:24:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, as we talked about last week, was probably all the bears were going to get with the current configurations
2011-10-18 17:24:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's always good to see the markets do what the analytic data suggests it should
2011-10-18 17:24:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should feel comfortable that our current outlook is the right one
2011-10-18 17:25:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the volume McClellan's
2011-10-18 17:25:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO volume MCSUM continues to power higher
2011-10-18 17:25:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is now a day away from moving above its zero line
2011-10-18 17:25:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's another thing here
2011-10-18 17:26:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: volume is moving in sync with breadth
2011-10-18 17:26:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we may have problems on a general basis
2011-10-18 17:26:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the internals of each subset index remain in sync here
2011-10-18 17:26:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and on many
2011-10-18 17:26:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: volume is leading breadth to the upside
2011-10-18 17:26:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so while many might be looking at the raw daily volume numbers here as a problem
2011-10-18 17:27:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not what's moving the market
2011-10-18 17:27:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's the plurality of volume that is moving the market higher
2011-10-18 17:27:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's trend strength
2011-10-18 17:27:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that there are more buyers than sellers in that individual volume stick
2011-10-18 17:27:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's what's important
2011-10-18 17:28:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite NYSE volume is, like its breadth cousin, not only above its zero line now, but is leading the CO data to the upside
2011-10-18 17:28:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't get much better than this
2011-10-18 17:29:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you have the engine running as smoothly as it is
2011-10-18 17:29:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NASDAQ volume MCSUM
2011-10-18 17:29:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we're already above the zero line and leading the breadth MCSUM
2011-10-18 17:29:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now, another thing to point out here
2011-10-18 17:30:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice that in these first three charts
2011-10-18 17:30:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that these MCSUM's are now within range of moving above their July highs
2011-10-18 17:30:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these July highs are the spark for our move above the consolidation range because this was the point in which we saw prices diverging before our correction started
2011-10-18 17:31:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since this lack of energy finished off the rally
2011-10-18 17:31:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is this same point that, once broken, will provide our new boost for prices to move higher and challenge these same July highs and probably beyond
2011-10-18 17:31:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: more fuel - a better chance of success
2011-10-18 17:32:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since we are pretty much in sync here
2011-10-18 17:32:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what will usually happen here is that we will see a "you will know it minute" as the move will be pretty much "understandable" as to its direction
2011-10-18 17:33:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX volume MCSUM is now approaching the +500 level AND its May high point
2011-10-18 17:33:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we see this move above both of these levels
2011-10-18 17:33:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a very high probability that a new uptrend will be underway
2011-10-18 17:34:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as there will be nothing to move prices lower
2011-10-18 17:34:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they will be technically "in the clear"
2011-10-18 17:34:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and look at that bull divergence on the MCSUM
2011-10-18 17:34:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the angle of ascent
2011-10-18 17:34:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: powerful?
2011-10-18 17:34:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you bet!
2011-10-18 17:35:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we get to the SPX volume MCSUM
2011-10-18 17:35:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is not only above its zero line
2011-10-18 17:35:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's about to take out THREE previous tops
2011-10-18 17:36:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can bet that it takes a whole lot of energy to take out just one...but here we're talking three
2011-10-18 17:36:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then you look at the price chart
2011-10-18 17:36:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a launching pad comes to mind
2011-10-18 17:37:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember the idea of a jumping off a diving board?
2011-10-18 17:37:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you see how the market chopped up and down for a month or so
2011-10-18 17:37:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then take a big leap lower?
2011-10-18 17:37:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of taking a launch off a high dive?
2011-10-18 17:37:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we are
2011-10-18 17:38:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the next area of minor resistance here is the 1275 level
2011-10-18 17:38:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is the bottom of the trading range from before
2011-10-18 17:38:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so once we do move higher
2011-10-18 17:38:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will be important to monitor the fuel gauge to see whether or not there's enough in the tank to move back within this same range or not
2011-10-18 17:39:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and making the last 3 months more of a blip on the longer term charts
2011-10-18 17:39:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to support that the SPX volume MCSUM is about to take out 3 tops
2011-10-18 17:39:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX volume MCSUM has already accomplished this
2011-10-18 17:40:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since the OEX is the top 100 issues of the SPX
2011-10-18 17:40:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it goes without saying that it shouldn't be too hard to violate this area of resistance
2011-10-18 17:41:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think we might be lucky enough for another pull back here?
2011-10-18 17:41:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: doesn't seem like
2011-10-18 17:41:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's going to be difficult
2011-10-18 17:41:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's going to need more bad news from somewhere
2011-10-18 17:41:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you think the media can come up with something?
2011-10-18 17:41:57 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: well, it is around
2011-10-18 17:42:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes, it is
2011-10-18 17:42:19 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: maybe when everything isn't solved this weekend, LOL
2011-10-18 17:42:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have futures down 30 right now per CNBC
2011-10-18 17:42:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...they have given another deadline for this week
2011-10-18 17:42:53 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: AAPL missed-go figure
2011-10-18 17:43:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: take away the deadline and what do you have?
2011-10-18 17:43:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm not surprised
2011-10-18 17:43:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they said it would be around 5.25 a share and the dunderheads on the street were looking for 7.25
2011-10-18 17:43:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't understand why these folks get paid so much money
2011-10-18 17:44:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what did they come in you know?
2011-10-18 17:44:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: dunno, I told my crew I did not like the chart ST, into earnings
2011-10-18 17:44:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: 7.05
2011-10-18 17:45:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: darn
2011-10-18 17:45:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: off by .20
2011-10-18 17:45:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tsk tsk
2011-10-18 17:45:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the stock is a leader
2011-10-18 17:45:39 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: and, they offered to crush next quarter, LOL
2011-10-18 17:45:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no one has been able to touch the iPad as yet
2011-10-18 17:45:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I got to tell you
2011-10-18 17:46:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I hear more people thinking of getting iPads for presents this year...especially for their senior mom or dad
2011-10-18 17:46:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why have a lap top?
2011-10-18 17:46:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or a desk top when you can have something simple that you can hold in your hands and can take with you?
2011-10-18 17:46:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: not much reason, I hear the tablets may go quad core soon
2011-10-18 17:47:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and everyone said that the pads would bomb
2011-10-18 17:47:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: amazing
2011-10-18 17:47:42 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: made notebooks immediately obsolete, LOL
2011-10-18 17:47:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID and SML volume MCSUM's are now above their zero lines
2011-10-18 17:47:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would never get another notebook
2011-10-18 17:48:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2011-10-18 17:48:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I use my phone for pretty much everything these days except spreadsheets and accounting
2011-10-18 17:48:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we get to the TM volume MCSUM
2011-10-18 17:49:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what the breadth side lacked, the volume side sure makes up for it
2011-10-18 17:49:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: being above its zero line for the second day
2011-10-18 17:49:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...volume oscillators
2011-10-18 17:49:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: alright
2011-10-18 17:50:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you want something to back you up for a continued pause here
2011-10-18 17:50:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's the CVI, STVO, and now the VTO's
2011-10-18 17:50:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all are pretty much "overbought" now
2011-10-18 17:50:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the CVI saying that we are within a day or so of a price top
2011-10-18 17:50:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a pull back here into Friday would fit that bill
2011-10-18 17:51:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the expectation of the STVO and VTO moving to more of a neutral stance
2011-10-18 17:51:30 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: naz trin was over 4 today, had me thinking more A than C, just saying...
2011-10-18 17:51:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would mean...the pullback here will likely be scary and more the sentiment to a higher level of angst
2011-10-18 17:51:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 4?
2011-10-18 17:51:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow
2011-10-18 17:51:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's look at that
2011-10-18 17:51:54 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2011-10-18 17:52:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .40
2011-10-18 17:52:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .86 after being "overbought" yesterday
2011-10-18 17:52:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .64
2011-10-18 17:52:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .75
2011-10-18 17:52:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "overbought"
2011-10-18 17:53:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is good
2011-10-18 17:53:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .56
2011-10-18 17:53:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .80
2011-10-18 17:53:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there?
2011-10-18 17:53:48 [Message] darris -> Chat: yes
2011-10-18 17:53:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did we get the Zweig thrust yesterday?
2011-10-18 17:55:00 [Message] darris -> Chat: Depends on what your parameters are.  several ways of doing it.  but the minimum of 40% to 61.5% on a 10 day simple MA did confirm.  If you use a 10 ema, we confirmed last Wed
2011-10-18 17:55:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...thanks for that
2011-10-18 17:55:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, on average, we might be looking at what kind of percentage return for the next 3-6 months?
2011-10-18 17:55:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ballpark is good
2011-10-18 17:56:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (speaking of which, sorry about the Tigers )
2011-10-18 17:58:13 [Message] darris -> Chat: That part I will have to develop, because I did not summarize the signals like others have.  I just coded the breadth so I would know when we went below 40% to start the clock.  From memory, the gains are normally in the 20-100% range for the last 85 years.
2011-10-18 17:58:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thank you...I was thinking in the high teens
2011-10-18 17:58:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it all depends
2011-10-18 17:59:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me move to the P/C ratio's
2011-10-18 17:59:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a preface
2011-10-18 17:59:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back in the olden days
2011-10-18 17:59:39 [Message] darris -> Chat: When McClellan said the 10 ema hit on Friday, my data set showed it hit on Wed last week.  He said it is still very rare for the 10 ema to confirm in 10 days, and he was right.  only 3 times this century, but the key is that it confirms in 10 days.  Lots of others that confirm in 12-16 days
2011-10-18 18:00:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we used a 10 day SMA of the P/C ratios to determine...that's some statistic
2011-10-18 18:00:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 3 times?
2011-10-18 18:00:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any idea of what those times were?
2011-10-18 18:00:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the PC ratio
2011-10-18 18:01:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any number above 1.00 on a 10 day average was a sign of extreme put buying
2011-10-18 18:01:06 [Message] darris -> Chat: yes, just give me a minute and I will get them, I looked this morning.  2004, 2009, and I have to go get the other.
2011-10-18 18:01:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and anything above .80 was on the extreme side for the bulls
2011-10-18 18:01:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much the same criteria of the Open 10
2011-10-18 18:01:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thanks Darris
2011-10-18 18:02:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CBOE ratio is still on the bullish side at 1.17
2011-10-18 18:02:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looks like we might have a double pattern structure there
2011-10-18 18:02:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 10 day equity ratio is at .68
2011-10-18 18:03:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but frankly, this has stayed stubbornly high all through the correction
2011-10-18 18:03:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the OEX P/C ratio is at 1.65
2011-10-18 18:03:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is well in bullish territory
2011-10-18 18:03:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it something important as far as a top is concerned
2011-10-18 18:03:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not likely
2011-10-18 18:04:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact, these kind of numbers will tend to keep prices from declining in any important way
2011-10-18 18:04:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that doesn't mean that you won't see down days
2011-10-18 18:04:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as far as the trend is concerned
2011-10-18 18:05:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they're nothing like the April 2010 period when all three were in "overbought" territory
2011-10-18 18:06:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can look at the 3 year chart on DP and see how the markets reacted at different P/C ratios
2011-10-18 18:06:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: did that answer the question?
2011-10-18 18:06:50 [Message] tracca -> Chat: But, recently when OEX P/C came down to 1.50 + levels market topped
2011-10-18 18:06:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...
2011-10-18 18:07:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might have to expand the window here
2011-10-18 18:07:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to remember that options were developed to help off set risk for portfolio managers
2011-10-18 18:08:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in the early days, they were mostly used by speculators and not so much for insurance purposes
2011-10-18 18:08:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these days I believe that this insurance factor is being played out here by many institutions given the fundamental backdrop
2011-10-18 18:08:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you look at the OEX, for example
2011-10-18 18:09:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the higher the market went
2011-10-18 18:09:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more insurance that was taken out in the ratio
2011-10-18 18:09:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as the market moved lower, this insurance was cashed in
2011-10-18 18:10:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's really a tough call here over the last 6 months
2011-10-18 18:10:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there have been many opinions on this
2011-10-18 18:10:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with many believing that these high ratio numbers were bearish
2011-10-18 18:10:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they have been vindicated by and large with the August crash
2011-10-18 18:10:59 [Message] darris -> Chat: the reason Tom may not have confirmed on Wed last week, was because it was very close, and you know the issues he has been having with his breadth data.  I just use what Randy supplies, and we get that directly from the NYSE.  so, 10-3-11 to 10-12-11, 3-9-09 to 3-18-09, 5-11-04 to 5-25-04, and then all the way back to 7-24-84 to 8-3-84
2011-10-18 18:11:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I believe it was more a matter of convenience than anything substantive on a technical basis
2011-10-18 18:11:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...the 2009 thrust sure did produce a nice rally
2011-10-18 18:12:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so did 2004
2011-10-18 18:12:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and 1984 was the bottom of the correction
2011-10-18 18:12:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty good (and respectable) track record I would say
2011-10-18 18:13:20 [Message] darris -> Chat: in 1984 we did about 10% in 6 months and 20% in a year, but it never pulled back much until the 1987 crash
2011-10-18 18:13:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thank you very much for the data
2011-10-18 18:13:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in all cases
2011-10-18 18:13:55 [Message] darris -> Chat: in 2004 we finally bottomed on Aug 13, 2004, and rallied into March of 2005
2011-10-18 18:13:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was like pulling back on a bow and then releasing
2011-10-18 18:14:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only that
2011-10-18 18:14:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but after the 2005 hesitation
2011-10-18 18:14:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was some rally into the 2007 top
2011-10-18 18:14:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from where
2011-10-18 18:14:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we crashed again
2011-10-18 18:14:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know
2011-10-18 18:15:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's sort of like shooting a rocket into the air
2011-10-18 18:15:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once the fuel runs out, it comes crashing back to earth
2011-10-18 18:15:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's a good thing and a not so good thing to have too much like this
2011-10-18 18:15:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1987 crash (Happy Anniversary)
2011-10-18 18:16:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2007 crash
2011-10-18 18:16:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2011 crash
2011-10-18 18:16:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in all cases
2011-10-18 18:16:28 [Message] darris -> Chat: One must realize, that in 2008, 2009, 2010, and now 2011, we have had at least a 20% drop, and in every case, it was crash like, meaning fairly fast.  20% crashes are a bit common now, LOL
2011-10-18 18:16:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was a two-three years before we saw a turnaround
2011-10-18 18:16:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2011-10-18 18:16:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the advantages to crashes
2011-10-18 18:17:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that everything is tossed overboard all at once
2011-10-18 18:17:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not piece by piece
2011-10-18 18:17:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like the NASDAQ bear market of 2000-2002
2011-10-18 18:17:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...
2011-10-18 18:17:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it did crash 50% initially, didn't it?
2011-10-18 18:17:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: interesting stuff
2011-10-18 18:18:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...on average
2011-10-18 18:18:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see a two-three year rally, and then a crash like event to follow
2011-10-18 18:18:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:'s getting late...anything else?
2011-10-18 18:18:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thanks again Darris
2011-10-18 18:19:46 [Message] darris -> Chat: No problem.  If you want some better numbers, just email me the question.  Should be real easy to code, and get the info.  Thanks for your great reviews here.  Most appreciated !!!
2011-10-18 18:20:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a problem...always a pleasure
2011-10-18 18:20:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...I have to get going
2011-10-18 18:20:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days
2011-10-18 18:20:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll meet up again on Thursday
2011-10-18 18:20:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

Previous Topic | Next Topic

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.

Copyright 2000-2019 Technical Watch