Chat - 10/17/12

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TW Chat Room > Categories > Chat & Breadth Archives > Chat - 10/17/12

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fib_1618

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Registered:1101777014
Posts: 4,457

Posted 1350565953	Reply with quote #1

2012-10-17 16:00:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day 2012-10-17 16:00:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone? 2012-10-17 16:00:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that good, eh? 2012-10-17 16:01:49 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Hi 2012-10-17 16:02:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's past your bed time sir... 2012-10-17 16:02:34 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Yes, kids don't let me get all my work done.... 2012-10-17 16:03:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sounds like you have my kind of day...I barely get 4 hours in each night 2012-10-17 16:03:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started?? 2012-10-17 16:03:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice breadth day today 2012-10-17 16:04:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2067/934 2012-10-17 16:04:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that should be enough to have new all time highs again in the NYAD line 2012-10-17 16:04:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check 2012-10-17 16:04:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yup...new all time highs 2012-10-17 16:05:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: take a quick count for the BETS...one moment 2012-10-17 16:05:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time highs on the TOUD 2012-10-17 16:06:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: +35 2012-10-17 16:06:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the charts look good here of the bounce 2012-10-17 16:06:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe the market was teasing us all last week...we'll see 2012-10-17 16:06:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started 2012-10-17 16:07:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO continued sharply higher today 2012-10-17 16:07:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what looked like a ledge formation on the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM has now turned into a hook 2012-10-17 16:07:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now... 2012-10-17 16:07:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we don't know is that if it's a bullish turn or just a fishhook 2012-10-17 16:08:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it's the later, like the ledge formation, it shouldn't last longer than 3-4 trading days 2012-10-17 16:09:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow as we start to challenge the +250 level 2012-10-17 16:09:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bears 2012-10-17 16:09:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they want to see a failure 2012-10-17 16:09:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bulls...move up and through +250 2012-10-17 16:09:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite NYSE breadth MCO also got better today 2012-10-17 16:10:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have not only taken out the previous highs now 2012-10-17 16:10:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the MCO components have also moved to higher highs as well 2012-10-17 16:10:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this now reduces the probabilities that a tradable top is forming 2012-10-17 16:11:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially since the NYSE breadth MCSUM remains above the important +500 level with a +562 reading today 2012-10-17 16:11:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until +500 is taken out to the downside 2012-10-17 16:11:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market advantage remains with the bulls 2012-10-17 16:12:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYA had a nice day when the Dow was being weighed down by IBM 2012-10-17 16:12:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and has now pretty much met the upside objective we were looking for from yesterday's analysis of the 8500 level 2012-10-17 16:12:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact 2012-10-17 16:13:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this maybe a new recovery closing high today...let me check 2012-10-17 16:13:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope...missed by 12 points 2012-10-17 16:14:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: intraday as well we missed 2012-10-17 16:14:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but good enough to fulfill our bounce objective 2012-10-17 16:14:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we wait for further information 2012-10-17 16:14:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice day so far 2012-10-17 16:14:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO also moved above its zero line today 2012-10-17 16:14:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as well as taking out its previous highs 2012-10-17 16:15:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we got what we needed to see for any chance of re-initiating the uptrend 2012-10-17 16:15:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now if the NASDAQ breadth MCO can take out its blip resistance 2012-10-17 16:15:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then a challenge of the recovery highs would then be very doable 2012-10-17 16:16:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's 80 points away on a closing basis 2012-10-17 16:16:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also got a crossover buy signal today on the NASDAQ breadth MCO components 2012-10-17 16:16:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this is not the time to play the bearish hero 2012-10-17 16:17:16 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: why have the 5 and 10's lagged these moves? 2012-10-17 16:17:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially since all this near term support is coming in near the zero line on the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM 2012-10-17 16:17:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we have fully relieved any "overbought" condition that may had seen in September 2012-10-17 16:18:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now one side can take advantage 2012-10-17 16:18:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a little more push by the buyers tomorrow and we'll have to fully revisit our anticipated top idea for this time period 2012-10-17 16:18:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 5's and 10's are lagging in some cases because the uptrend is mature and showing a lack of breadth capacity as a long distance runner would when running a marathon 2012-10-17 16:19:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the NDX breadth MCO 2012-10-17 16:19:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and kind of disappointing 2012-10-17 16:20:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it would had been nice for the bullish argument if this MCO did move to new highs today along with the new highs in the composite NYSE and NASDAQ 2012-10-17 16:20:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this lack of follow through then keeps the bearish expectation of only a snapback in progress to the -250 level on the NDX breadth MCSUM still on the front burner 2012-10-17 16:21:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good follow through as well with the SPX breadth MCO today 2012-10-17 16:21:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're now 4 points from moving to new recovery highs on the index 2012-10-17 16:22:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remember 2012-10-17 16:22:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order to break out of this trading range formation to the upside 2012-10-17 16:22:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCSUM will need to take out the early October highs at the +250 level 2012-10-17 16:22:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so still some work to do by the bulls 2012-10-17 16:22:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we are only 2 days now from OPEX 2012-10-17 16:23:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would then seem plausible that if there were to be a "reversal of fortunes" for the bulls it could happen by Friday 2012-10-17 16:23:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as soon as tomorrow 2012-10-17 16:23:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the key here again is what the internals are telling us 2012-10-17 16:23:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not price 2012-10-17 16:24:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for many 2012-10-17 16:24:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we move to new closing highs here 2012-10-17 16:24:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: many bears are going to throw in the towel again 2012-10-17 16:24:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once these unwilling sellers commit 2012-10-17 16:24:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is likely to go lower 2012-10-17 16:24:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: UNLESS 2012-10-17 16:24:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we get internal confirmation of these same new highs 2012-10-17 16:25:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like the early October highs on the SPX breadth MCSUM for example 2012-10-17 16:25:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very good day for the bulls 2012-10-17 16:25:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX joined the SPX to new highs on the breadth MCO 2012-10-17 16:25:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we got additional confirmation on the OEX MCO components as well 2012-10-17 16:25:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow 2012-10-17 16:26:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even the Dow breadth MCO had a great day in spite of IBM 2012-10-17 16:26:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: true, we haven't as yet moved to higher MCO highs yet 2012-10-17 16:26:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we are challenging them now where yesterday we were still at the zero line 2012-10-17 16:26:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and check the Dow breadth MCSUM... 2012-10-17 16:27:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: finding support - once again - at a natural 250 incremental support area 2012-10-17 16:28:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow is now only 53 points away from new recovery highs 2012-10-17 16:28:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could sneeze and get there now 2012-10-17 16:28:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: continued good strength as well on the MID breadth MCO 2012-10-17 16:29:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we're at the area of our upside targets for this bounce from last week 2012-10-17 16:29:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since we closed higher than the comparative bar 2012-10-17 16:29:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a better then even chance that we're also going to close above the 1005 price level as well 2012-10-17 16:30:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears need to be very careful here in not getting too cocky 2012-10-17 16:30:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we're now getting indications that last week was just another one of those pauses to shake the tree of weak hands 2012-10-17 16:30:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less 2012-10-17 16:30:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: give the bears something to gnaw on beside their paws 2012-10-17 16:30:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2012-10-17 16:31:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as you have probably noticed 2012-10-17 16:31:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I've been quiet for the last two weeks over at TT 2012-10-17 16:31:41 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep 2012-10-17 16:31:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and just reading 2012-10-17 16:31:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I had a feeling that something might be up 2012-10-17 16:32:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when I kept reading posts on how things are finally moving in the direction of the overall bias of the board 2012-10-17 16:32:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: shouts of "vindication" and calling tops 2012-10-17 16:32:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: silly old bears 2012-10-17 16:33:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they'll never learn 2012-10-17 16:33:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you don't spit into the wind 2012-10-17 16:33:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK 2012-10-17 16:33:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCO moved above its zero line today 2012-10-17 16:33:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AND 2012-10-17 16:33:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's blip resistance 2012-10-17 16:34:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...time to re-examine our blueprint now 2012-10-17 16:34:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's move on before we do 2012-10-17 16:35:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: crossover buy on the SML MCO components as well 2012-10-17 16:35:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM breadth MCO also took out both its zero line and blip resistance today as well 2012-10-17 16:36:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a crossover buy here as well on the components 2012-10-17 16:36:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so... 2012-10-17 16:36:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point 2012-10-17 16:36:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears have once again lost short term control of the market 2012-10-17 16:37:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the bulls are now back in the driver's seat 2012-10-17 16:37:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: minus any near term snapback to or towards the MCO zero lines 2012-10-17 16:38:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should anticipate that the next opportunity for a tradable top will now be extended into next week 2012-10-17 16:38:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we continue to show improvement near term 2012-10-17 16:38:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in this we are looking for increasing gap expansion to the upside in the various MCSUM's 2012-10-17 16:38:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we'll may be in a position to go shopping long again 2012-10-17 16:39:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the stocks that I watch have been performing well above my expectations on this 3 day bounce 2012-10-17 16:39:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so something is brewing under the surface 2012-10-17 16:39:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we just need a little more improvement and we should be good to go again 2012-10-17 16:40:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially if the volume McClellan's are moving in sync here...so let's go there next 2012-10-17 16:40:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE volume MCO also moved to new highs above its zero line today 2012-10-17 16:40:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have confirmation there 2012-10-17 16:41:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a further move above that small little blip we see on the chart sealing the deal for the bulls 2012-10-17 16:41:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice how the CO NYSE volume MCSUM is also showing a turn...once again...at the +250 level 2012-10-17 16:41:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: crossover buy as well on the NYSE CO volume MCO components 2012-10-17 16:41:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: want to see volume plurality here...one moment 2012-10-17 16:42:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 3:1 to the good 2012-10-17 16:42:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's power 2012-10-17 16:42:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how much was BAC? 2012-10-17 16:43:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: none...it was down 2012-10-17 16:43:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very good 2012-10-17 16:43:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh my 2012-10-17 16:43:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a thrust in the NYSE composite volume MCO 2012-10-17 16:43:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: crossover buy 2012-10-17 16:43:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the NYSE composite volume MCSUM is also finding support at the +250 level 2012-10-17 16:44:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this rally was going to find resistance at the top of the range we would not be thrusting here 2012-10-17 16:44:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think of the space shuttle 2012-10-17 16:44:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the thrust occurs first and THEN the shuttle lifts off 2012-10-17 16:45:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so not having prices at new highs as yet is pretty normal here 2012-10-17 16:45:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...sure seems like a successful snapback on the NYA chart now 2012-10-17 16:45:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a double test 2012-10-17 16:46:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the NASDAQ volume MCO 2012-10-17 16:46:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and its right at the zero line 2012-10-17 16:46:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where one side is about to take control 2012-10-17 16:46:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if the NYA data is any indication 2012-10-17 16:46:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see an upside thrust here too near term 2012-10-17 16:47:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're now about 4 weeks under the MCO zero line here 2012-10-17 16:47:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: getting interesting 2012-10-17 16:48:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX volume MCSUM is attempting to find support at the -500 level 2012-10-17 16:48:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the way the NDX volume MCO is structured here 2012-10-17 16:48:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could have a very large move to the upside since we would break above two previous tops in this area 2012-10-17 16:49:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also that the 10% component of the NDX volume MCO did find resistance at its zero line today 2012-10-17 16:49:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which was the technical expectation from yesterday if I remember correctly 2012-10-17 16:49:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so now that's out of the way 2012-10-17 16:49:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can now technically move sharply above this same zero line 2012-10-17 16:50:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: higher highs as well with the SPX volume MCO to compliment its breadth cousin 2012-10-17 16:50:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're back in sync again 2012-10-17 16:50:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: is that a good expectation with both the MCO and components both pointing South? 2012-10-17 16:50:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and all of this is happening near the SPX volume MCSUM's zero line 2012-10-17 16:51:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the NDX? 2012-10-17 16:51:09 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes 2012-10-17 16:51:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope... 2012-10-17 16:51:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was a technical expectation to do so 2012-10-17 16:51:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember when an oscillator snaps back to the zero line 2012-10-17 16:51:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the first thing it usually happens is that it finds resistance and it's repelled 2012-10-17 16:52:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once that's out of the way 2012-10-17 16:52:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the next expectation is for another challenge to break above this area of neutrality 2012-10-17 16:52:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that should happen as soon as tomorrow 2012-10-17 16:52:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what's also favorable to even further upside progress here 2012-10-17 16:52:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the pullback today was very shallow on the NDX volume MCO and its components 2012-10-17 16:52:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: almost like it had to do it but didn't really want to 2012-10-17 16:52:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so the small point change 2012-10-17 16:53:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to be honest 2012-10-17 16:53:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far 2012-10-17 16:53:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is the only McClellan that is pointing south today 2012-10-17 16:53:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all the rest are higher...breadth and volume 2012-10-17 16:53:48 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: small point change? 2012-10-17 16:53:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tension on the tape 2012-10-17 16:54:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as one side is about to take control 2012-10-17 16:54:11 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ah 2012-10-17 16:54:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a small battle 2012-10-17 16:54:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the overwhelming evidence shows that this battle is going to won out, at least initially, by the buyers 2012-10-17 16:55:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I also wouldn't base direction on one index when all the others are saying something else 2012-10-17 16:55:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less 2012-10-17 16:55:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the breadth side did move higher today 2012-10-17 16:56:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there was buying broadly speaking in the NDX 2012-10-17 16:56:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there was a bit more volume on the down ticks than the up ticks 2012-10-17 16:56:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example 2012-10-17 16:56:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's say that 99 of the 100 NDX stocks moved higher 2012-10-17 16:56:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but one stock moved lower and took the majority of the volume 2012-10-17 16:57:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's more of a stealth rally 2012-10-17 16:57:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like...well...look at the Dow today 2012-10-17 16:57:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: IBM was down 10% 2012-10-17 16:57:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sorry 2012-10-17 16:57:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 5% 2012-10-17 16:57:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: down 10 points 2012-10-17 16:58:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it has something like a 12% weighting on the Dow average 2012-10-17 16:58:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and STILL the Dow closed higher 2012-10-17 16:58:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that 10 points is probably about....oh...as a guess...50 or 60 Dow points? 2012-10-17 16:58:46 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep 2012-10-17 16:58:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if the Dow closed up 5 2012-10-17 16:59:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one could assume without even looking that maybe the other 29 were in the green today 2012-10-17 16:59:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check 2012-10-17 17:00:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no...23 were up 2012-10-17 17:00:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 7 down 2012-10-17 17:00:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Intel was down 2.5% 2012-10-17 17:00:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's weighting is small 2012-10-17 17:00:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fractions 2012-10-17 17:00:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but CAT was up 2% 2012-10-17 17:01:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's the fourth highest weight 2012-10-17 17:01:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact 2012-10-17 17:02:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there were about 13 Dow stocks up over 1% today 2012-10-17 17:02:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's half the average and enough to offset IBM 2012-10-17 17:02:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we closed flat 2012-10-17 17:02:29 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: my only problem here is I don't care for the look of the NDX or NAZ, the rest look good, so far 2012-10-17 17:02:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: price or internally? 2012-10-17 17:02:52 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: both 2012-10-17 17:03:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well, I have a sneaky feeling that might change tomorrow 2012-10-17 17:03:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the internals here are now in a position to support another advancing structure 2012-10-17 17:03:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now... 2012-10-17 17:03:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the NDX and COMPX 2012-10-17 17:03:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might only advance to the recent tops 2012-10-17 17:04:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but for the Dow and SPX 2012-10-17 17:04:04 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it can, but I'm not in love with AAPL here, either 2012-10-17 17:04:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: forget Apple 2012-10-17 17:04:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had this discussion 2012-10-17 17:04:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember 2012-10-17 17:04:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that those who have led the direction of the market (either up or down) 2012-10-17 17:04:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will usually be the last ones to follow a correction or a change in trend 2012-10-17 17:05:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AAPL can go to 500 2012-10-17 17:05:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if the internals continue to move higher 2012-10-17 17:05:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like IBM today 2012-10-17 17:05:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the greater majority can offset any problems with the big kid on the block 2012-10-17 17:05:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why is very important that we don't look so much at price here for the moment 2012-10-17 17:05:52 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: can do 2012-10-17 17:06:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are looking for constructive evidence that we can 2012-10-17 17:06:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1) break above the recent highs 2012-10-17 17:06:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and 2) stay above those highs so that we can build on it 2012-10-17 17:06:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now 2012-10-17 17:06:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have enough evidence to see a challenge 2012-10-17 17:06:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is happening quicker than we thought it might 2012-10-17 17:06:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Japan opens up 1% 2012-10-17 17:07:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Korea .03% 2012-10-17 17:07:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are just too many people looking for a top here 2012-10-17 17:07:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are just too many people using Apple as their proxy 2012-10-17 17:07:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are just too many people here that continue to think that the market can't go any higher 2012-10-17 17:07:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and until this changes 2012-10-17 17:08:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a contrarian you have to go with the path of LEAST RESISTANCE 2012-10-17 17:08:20 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it's not my proxy, I'm long stocks, but I am short AAPL from the 50 today 2012-10-17 17:08:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's fine 2012-10-17 17:08:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but Apple IS being used as a proxy 2012-10-17 17:08:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no mention of GOOG 2012-10-17 17:08:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: certainly! 2012-10-17 17:08:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is also at new highs 2012-10-17 17:08:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how about DIS? 2012-10-17 17:09:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: AAPL probably more distractive to peoples thinking 2012-10-17 17:09:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why would an entertainment company be at all time highs if no one has money to spend? 2012-10-17 17:09:29 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: than anything else 2012-10-17 17:09:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course it is 2012-10-17 17:09:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it IS the largest company in the history of mankind 2012-10-17 17:10:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it can't go any higher 2012-10-17 17:10:08 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: but, it keeps the bus nicely light 2012-10-17 17:10:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it can't generate anymore sales 2012-10-17 17:10:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course it does 2012-10-17 17:10:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because 2012-10-17 17:10:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they're not going to split the sucker 2012-10-17 17:11:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wouldn't at all be surprised to see AAPL at $1000.00 a share by next April 2012-10-17 17:11:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they have just too much stuff coming to market here 2012-10-17 17:11:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and everyone is following the leader 2012-10-17 17:11:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they have little competition in the tablet area 2012-10-17 17:12:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in the phones they haven't even moved into many developing countries as yet 2012-10-17 17:12:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course 2012-10-17 17:12:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the short sellers are betting that Europe is going to collapse 2012-10-17 17:12:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that hasn't worked out so far, has it? 2012-10-17 17:12:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bottom line 2012-10-17 17:12:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just follow the money 2012-10-17 17:13:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: forget the news 2012-10-17 17:13:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: forget the spin 2012-10-17 17:13:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: forget the promotional commercials you hear every time they interview someone on a business channel 2012-10-17 17:13:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes I really think that people don't understand marketing 2012-10-17 17:14:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every interview is a commercial for that persons wares 2012-10-17 17:14:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we think the market is going to go up (brought to you by Goldman Sacks) 2012-10-17 17:14:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we think the market is going to go down (brought to you by Elliott Wave International) 2012-10-17 17:15:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only thing that matters is the direction and the amplitude of money flow 2012-10-17 17:15:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is the only thing that can actually move prices in one direction or the other 2012-10-17 17:15:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything else is just rhetoric..opinion...propaganda 2012-10-17 17:16:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is no one smarter than money 2012-10-17 17:16:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: agreed! 2012-10-17 17:16:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the charts 2012-10-17 17:16:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: higher highs as well in the OEX volume MCO 2012-10-17 17:16:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you all see what I"m seeing here 2012-10-17 17:17:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you know what we've been discussing here 2012-10-17 17:17:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we're seeing is whispers 2012-10-17 17:17:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as money begins to show enough energy to make a difference in the direction of stock prices 2012-10-17 17:17:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also remember 2012-10-17 17:17:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the Bond CEF A/D line making higher highs 2012-10-17 17:18:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it PROMISES us of higher equity prices in the not too distant future 2012-10-17 17:18:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't use the word "promise" liberally 2012-10-17 17:18:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as to promise something is a pretty big statement 2012-10-17 17:18:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it may be now 2012-10-17 17:19:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it may be later after December 2012-10-17 17:19:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this promise will come around eventually 2012-10-17 17:19:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those who have been in the chat over the last 8 years know this to be true 2012-10-17 17:19:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there hasn't been an exception 2012-10-17 17:19:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: never 2012-10-17 17:20:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's sort of like new highs on the NYAD line and the difference between corrections and bear markets 2012-10-17 17:20:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices can only move lower if there is a lack of liquidity to support them 2012-10-17 17:20:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at real estate over the last several years 2012-10-17 17:20:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no liquidity 2012-10-17 17:21:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and prices collapsed 2012-10-17 17:21:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same with stocks 2012-10-17 17:21:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or anything else that is bought and sold 2012-10-17 17:22:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow volume MCO is still below its zero line 2012-10-17 17:22:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and until this is corrected 2012-10-17 17:23:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow is not likely to move above its previous highs 2012-10-17 17:23:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then as we look at the MID volume MCO 2012-10-17 17:23:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we have another thrust in work 2012-10-17 17:24:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like its breadth cousin 2012-10-17 17:24:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID volume MCSUM is also bouncing off its zero line 2012-10-17 17:25:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and look at the structure that developed before this latest thrust 2012-10-17 17:25:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a nice and complex platform 2012-10-17 17:25:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same thing with the SML volume MCO 2012-10-17 17:25:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we did take out blip resistance today as well 2012-10-17 17:25:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears look to be in trouble now 2012-10-17 17:26:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM volume MCO is also above its zero line as well 2012-10-17 17:26:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so.... 2012-10-17 17:26:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a very good day for the bulls overall 2012-10-17 17:26:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we saw great follow through today 2012-10-17 17:27:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: enough to break above zero lines and blip resistance areas 2012-10-17 17:27:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if anything 2012-10-17 17:27:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's data now suggests that the lows made last week are going to contain any further price decay that we might see moving forward 2012-10-17 17:28:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy..this is looking like a classic snapback to old highs now 2012-10-17 17:28:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if that's the case 2012-10-17 17:28:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could get confirmation on this as soon as tomorrow with a rip roaring advance 2012-10-17 17:28:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: an advance that will have internal confirmation to go along with it 2012-10-17 17:29:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sigh...some market 2012-10-17 17:29:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's quickly go back to the breadth McClellan's and look at the sectors 2012-10-17 17:30:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP breadth MCO is acting like a roller coaster right now 2012-10-17 17:30:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: up to the top of the ride, straight down, and now back up to the next plateau segment 2012-10-17 17:31:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any take out of the +600 area on the XLP breadth MCSUM would clear the way for new all time price highs 2012-10-17 17:31:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE breadth MCO continues to provide some great textbook patterns 2012-10-17 17:32:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the many textural moves below the zero line 2012-10-17 17:32:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like we talked about last week 2012-10-17 17:32:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once it moved above the zero line 2012-10-17 17:32:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: its been straight up 2012-10-17 17:32:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know if we'll get a snapback to the zero line before we move to challenge the previous highs 2012-10-17 17:33:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this is a buy for now 2012-10-17 17:33:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would use Tuesday's break-a-way gap as a stop 2012-10-17 17:33:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there's lots of things going for this sector now 2012-10-17 17:34:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm really liking the XLF now 2012-10-17 17:34:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the angle of ascent in prices 2012-10-17 17:34:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the higher highs in the XLF breadth MCO 2012-10-17 17:34:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: along with finding support at the +250 level on the XLF breadth MCSUM 2012-10-17 17:34:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember 2012-10-17 17:35:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our expectation has been for a while now that it would be the financials that would lead the market since it hasn't done so since the 2007/2008 highs 2012-10-17 17:35:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact 2012-10-17 17:35:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the sector closed at new recovery highs today 2012-10-17 17:35:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so why is it 2012-10-17 17:36:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with so many using a potential collapse in the financial system as their proxy for being bearish 2012-10-17 17:36:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the XLF is at new recovery highs? 2012-10-17 17:36:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how does that sound logical? 2012-10-17 17:36:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't 2012-10-17 17:36:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why all of this fiscal cliff stuff is just a distraction 2012-10-17 17:37:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think we're going to have to change our plans here 2012-10-17 17:37:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV closed at all time highs today 2012-10-17 17:38:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and should continue to make new highs for a while since the XLV breadth MCSUM remains above the +750 level 2012-10-17 17:38:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ummmm... 2012-10-17 17:38:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gang 2012-10-17 17:38:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2012-10-17 17:38:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the XLI 2012-10-17 17:38:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what was it we talked about last week? 2012-10-17 17:39:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that this sector looked like it was bottoming? 2012-10-17 17:39:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLI breadth MCSUM being the key to whether this was going to happen or not? 2012-10-17 17:39:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have a bullish thrust now 2012-10-17 17:39:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a breakout of the triangle on the MCSUM to the upside 2012-10-17 17:39:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope 2012-10-17 17:39:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are not topping here folks 2012-10-17 17:40:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: geez 2012-10-17 17:40:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even the materials are getting into the act! 2012-10-17 17:40:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB breadth MCO is now supporting a thrust to the upside 2012-10-17 17:41:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK is mixed between the MCO and its components 2012-10-17 17:41:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll call it correctional for now 2012-10-17 17:41:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we'll watch to see if the XLK breadth MCSUM can hold at the previous lows here or not 2012-10-17 17:41:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the utilities remain a strong buy 2012-10-17 17:42:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like we talked about a couple of weeks ago 2012-10-17 17:42:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices are now starting to show more vigor as we get closer to the MCSUM zero line 2012-10-17 17:43:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this was after we found support at the forecasted 36 level 2012-10-17 17:43:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so.... 2012-10-17 17:43:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no more tradable top for now 2012-10-17 17:43:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with a little more push 2012-10-17 17:43:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this thing might surprise a lot of people 2012-10-17 17:43:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: including yours truly 2012-10-17 17:43:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep an eye on breadth tomorrow 2012-10-17 17:44:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...remember what we discussed yesterday with the Open 10's? 2012-10-17 17:44:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we could open weak in the morning 2012-10-17 17:44:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it will be absorbed quickly and we should close higher? 2012-10-17 17:44:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that pretty much describes today's action 2012-10-17 17:45:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are still not climactic 2012-10-17 17:45:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO'S are now above their zero line (except the Dow) 2012-10-17 17:45:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the VTO's remain neutral 2012-10-17 17:45:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .77 2012-10-17 17:45:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so not a lot of short covering...that's good 2012-10-17 17:46:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .95 2012-10-17 17:46:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow 2012-10-17 17:46:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.59 2012-10-17 17:46:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 highly "oversold" at 1.12 2012-10-17 17:46:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.43 2012-10-17 17:46:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 also at 1.12 2012-10-17 17:47:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so... 2012-10-17 17:47:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a lot of buying is taking place in the NYSE stocks 2012-10-17 17:47:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and today's MCO readings suggested that today's rally was broad based 2012-10-17 17:47:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and included the interest rate sensitive issues 2012-10-17 17:47:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the secondaries remain a bit on the soft side 2012-10-17 17:48:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the Mid Caps are very strong here 2012-10-17 17:48:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as well as the Small Caps 2012-10-17 17:48:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: overall 2012-10-17 17:48:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market seems to saying that a correctional bottom is behind us 2012-10-17 17:48:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it isn't as yet saying where we're likely to go from here 2012-10-17 17:49:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we do know is that enough energy has returned to where a challenge of the recent price highs should be seen now 2012-10-17 17:49:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with any further strength 2012-10-17 17:49:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another leg to the upside will probably be the result 2012-10-17 17:49:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...longs should remain on hold 2012-10-17 17:50:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we should be looking around to see who the leaders are 2012-10-17 17:50:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the sector charts 2012-10-17 17:50:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the defensive sectors remain strong 2012-10-17 17:50:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we're starting to see value stocks start to move as well 2012-10-17 17:50:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how this all looks tomorrow 2012-10-17 17:51:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but don't let the anticipation of a technical snapback towards the MCO zero line deter your focus on what remains important 2012-10-17 17:51:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that is the overall direction of money flow on both a short and intermediate term basis 2012-10-17 17:51:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it keeps coming in 2012-10-17 17:51:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: who are we to argue? 2012-10-17 17:51:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else? 2012-10-17 17:52:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember we have one more chat tomorrow (Thursday) 2012-10-17 17:52:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then only one next week (Thursday) 2012-10-17 17:53:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: by the way 2012-10-17 17:53:07 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx 2012-10-17 17:53:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm as surprised as you are 2012-10-17 17:53:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we're seeing fresh money moving in now 2012-10-17 17:53:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I'm not one to stand in front of a freight train 2012-10-17 17:53:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see what futures are doing 2012-10-17 17:54:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: flat 2012-10-17 17:54:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not surprising 2012-10-17 17:54:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's "European Thursday" tomorrow 2012-10-17 17:54:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when something bullish seems to happen 2012-10-17 17:54:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else 2012-10-17 17:54:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm off and running 2012-10-17 17:54:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great night 2012-10-17 17:55:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see how she looks in 22 hours 2012-10-17 17:55:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night __________________ Dave's LinkedIn Profile Technical Watch Twitter Page Technical Watch Facebook Page "As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan "An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan "What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock "The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson “Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977 "You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977
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