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Posts: 4,900
Reply with quote  #1 
2014-10-16 16:00:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2014-10-16 16:00:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2014-10-16 16:08:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2014-10-16 16:10:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...waited long enough for the stragglers [smile]
2014-10-16 16:10:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's get SC up and get started
2014-10-16 16:11:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: building on yesterday's small point change
2014-10-16 16:11:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO has now shown some upside follow through and has fully snapped back to its zero line
2014-10-16 16:11:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: coming in today with a -5 reading
2014-10-16 16:12:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this move higher has also taken out the horizontal resistance peaks that we've been talking about for the last week
2014-10-16 16:12:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have now moved above the declining tops line that has been controlling the pattern
2014-10-16 16:12:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this now suggests that the "crash like event" that was expected for this week is now complete
2014-10-16 16:13:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now a period of stabilization is about to begin
2014-10-16 16:13:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which should last for the next 2-3 trading days
2014-10-16 16:14:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also left behind is a bottom above bottom in this MCO
2014-10-16 16:14:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the second bottom a divergent one
2014-10-16 16:14:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have a Hammer stick from Wednesday's trading
2014-10-16 16:15:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's a pretty good bet that we're now in a choppy sideways consolidation pattern for the time being
2014-10-16 16:15:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYA chart
2014-10-16 16:15:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we reversed just above our downside target of 9800
2014-10-16 16:15:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at just below the 9900 level
2014-10-16 16:15:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: close enough for now
2014-10-16 16:16:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though it wouldn't be too surprising if we see some sort of back and fill sometime next week to not only reach this 9800 objective, but to also challenge the intraday lows of yesterday
2014-10-16 16:16:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2014-10-16 16:17:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with its current reading of just above its next likely stopping point of the -1000 level
2014-10-16 16:17:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should now be looking for the construction of a classic "ledge" pattern over the next 3-4 market days with this same Elliott 4th wave
2014-10-16 16:18:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before a final purge is likely to take place as "ledges are made to fall of"
2014-10-16 16:18:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2014-10-16 16:18:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we do not have the same kind of upside confirmation that we have with the CO MCO
2014-10-16 16:19:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this presents a near term problem as we don't have synchronicity between the two
2014-10-16 16:20:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something like this then can leave to door open to the aforementioned back and fill to get both the CO and the Composite to better compliment each other
2014-10-16 16:20:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but for now
2014-10-16 16:20:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it promotes a messy situation
2014-10-16 16:21:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just as one would expect when a building has been imploded and you have to wait for the dust to clear before proceeding
2014-10-16 16:22:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this lack of leadership in the NYSE Composite MCO also suggests that the interest rate sensitive issues are still not seeing the kind of support that one would expect with the yield curse as weak as it is right now
2014-10-16 16:22:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meaning...if one were thinking about refinancing, or financing a project or merchandise, this would be a fine time to get things into motion
2014-10-16 16:23:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as these lows on rates on the long end may not last too long
2014-10-16 16:23:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in any event
2014-10-16 16:23:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our long standing downside target for the 10 year at 2.15% was met on Wednesday
2014-10-16 16:23:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2014-10-16 16:24:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we moved as low as 1.87% I believe intraday
2014-10-16 16:24:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so unless we see new higher highs in the NYSE Bond CEF A/D line this weekend
2014-10-16 16:24:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is probably the end run for the lowest yield on US debt for, maybe, the rest of our lives
2014-10-16 16:25:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all depending, of course, on what each individual's "rest of their lives" entails
2014-10-16 16:25:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for me...maybe 20 years
2014-10-16 16:25:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fingers crossed
2014-10-16 16:26:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2014-10-16 16:26:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we also have a completed snapback to the zero line now
2014-10-16 16:26:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this too would suggest that the worse is over on the downside for the time being
2014-10-16 16:27:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: coming up about 50 points shy of our downside price target there
2014-10-16 16:27:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components
2014-10-16 16:27:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see another sign of strength as the 10% Trend has crossed above the 5% Trend today
2014-10-16 16:28:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this then suggests that the initial short covering that came in today is enough to stabilize prices at current levels
2014-10-16 16:28:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that a full snapback to the 10% Component's zero line would be expected over the next week or so
2014-10-16 16:29:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: price resistance for now is the 4280 level on the NASDAQ Composite
2014-10-16 16:29:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and give me a moment and I'll check the .382 retracement target
2014-10-16 16:31:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 4311 on a closing basis
2014-10-16 16:31:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so within the chart target of 4280
2014-10-16 16:32:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would also be Monday's intraday high point before the late afternoon collapse
2014-10-16 16:32:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a pretty good target there
2014-10-16 16:32:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NDX breadth MCO
2014-10-16 16:33:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see here that it remains quite weak so far
2014-10-16 16:33:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would suggest that the broader NASDAQ exchange is now seeing money flowing back into these issues over those of the top 100
2014-10-16 16:34:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which also means that the small and mid caps should also be showing some upside leadership here as these three baskets of issues led on the way down, which means by extension, that they would lead to the upside once the bottom was complete
2014-10-16 16:35:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SPX breadth MCO
2014-10-16 16:35:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it too is trailing the broader market of stocks on this rebound so far
2014-10-16 16:35:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like the NDX MCO
2014-10-16 16:37:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will need to see both the declining tops line in these MCO's violated before we can see with some confidence that the intraday lows of Wednesday were our capitulation bottom that we were looking for on Tuesday
2014-10-16 16:37:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...I guess...both the OEX and Dow are in the same position
2014-10-16 16:37:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at both
2014-10-16 16:37:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they are
2014-10-16 16:38:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the Dow breadth MCO generating a small point change today
2014-10-16 16:38:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all this means is that this basket of 30 stocks is now compressed between buyers and sellers
2014-10-16 16:38:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the Dow breadth MCO showing a -113 reading today
2014-10-16 16:39:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds are very high that this compression point will unwind on the buy side
2014-10-16 16:39:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this could be good for about 200 points on the Dow
2014-10-16 16:40:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hey are you!! long time!
2014-10-16 16:40:17 [Message] oranges -> Chat: Yea, been busy lately
2014-10-16 16:40:19 [Message] oranges -> Chat: How are you?
2014-10-16 16:40:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hope all is well
2014-10-16 16:40:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doing fine...thanks for asking
2014-10-16 16:40:31 [Message] oranges -> Chat: it is [smile]
2014-10-16 16:40:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: great
2014-10-16 16:40:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're on the OEX data charts
2014-10-16 16:40:52 [Message] oranges -> Chat: k
2014-10-16 16:40:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2014-10-16 16:41:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're now moving to the MID breadth MCO
2014-10-16 16:41:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we saw good follow through to the upside today
2014-10-16 16:41:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have now snapped back to this MCO's zero line
2014-10-16 16:42:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with yesterday's intraday price lows successfully challenging our downside February target of 1270
2014-10-16 16:42:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should now expect a choppy, somewhat volatile pattern to continue
2014-10-16 16:42:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: give me a moment for the Fib retracement on this one
2014-10-16 16:43:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: .382 is at 1315
2014-10-16 16:43:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or another 4 points from here
2014-10-16 16:43:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not much to work with
2014-10-16 16:44:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 50% is at 1324
2014-10-16 16:44:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll go with the idea for a continued sideways consolidation for this index
2014-10-16 16:44:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe a triangle
2014-10-16 16:45:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if the MID breadth MCO can break above its early September highs at the zero line
2014-10-16 16:45:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we can get a bit move upside traction here
2014-10-16 16:45:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe to 1350
2014-10-16 16:45:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in any event
2014-10-16 16:46:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a nice Hammer stick here too on the MID from yesterday
2014-10-16 16:46:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see if and how the market will build on this
2014-10-16 16:46:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: next we move to the SML breadth MCO
2014-10-16 16:47:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if you didn't catch it with all of the excitement yesterday
2014-10-16 16:47:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only was the SML breadth MCO UP on Wednesday
2014-10-16 16:47:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it also moved back up above its zero line!
2014-10-16 16:47:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we saw good continuation today
2014-10-16 16:48:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the SML breadth MCSUM
2014-10-16 16:48:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and what could be a ledge pattern has now seen better upside expansion that would call the idea of a ledge here in question
2014-10-16 16:48:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course, any kind of snapback to the zero line would give the form of the pattern a different feel
2014-10-16 16:49:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as we talked about on Tuesday
2014-10-16 16:49:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should continue to watch the small caps as to any solid turnaround, no less completion, of this weeks wash out
2014-10-16 16:50:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also that the 10% component on the SML breadth MCO has also crossed above the 5% Trend AND has now snapped back to its zero line as well
2014-10-16 16:50:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCO leading higher, however, this would only instruct us that we are now in a correctional sequence for the time being...we're no longer trending
2014-10-16 16:51:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that no new lower prices are expected near term (the next 2-3 trading days)
2014-10-16 16:51:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which also means
2014-10-16 16:52:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those who moved to cash or shorted this market after the 9/19 recommendation, should now consider to cover those positions and have a nice steak dinner out to celebrate!
2014-10-16 16:52:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: [smile]
2014-10-16 16:52:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the TM breadth MCO
2014-10-16 16:52:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see a zero line snapback is now complete here as well
2014-10-16 16:53:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though with the components still in a negative cross over configuration
2014-10-16 16:54:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still have to be on guard for some sort of back and fill, like we had today, in order for the price lows of Wednesday to become "important" ones on a daily basis
2014-10-16 16:54:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-10-16 16:54:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we've had a nice decline from the 9/19 top, and we now have indications that the meat of the pull back is complete for now
2014-10-16 16:55:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation though for the next couple of trading days is for volatility to continue as OPEX, and the dust clears of margin calls, gets sorted out
2014-10-16 16:55:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would mean that our upside from here is somewhat limited in scope
2014-10-16 16:56:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that, at this point, with the large cap breadth MCO's producing flags on Monday
2014-10-16 16:56:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's going to take the better part of the next 2-3 weeks to get things sorted to the point in which there might be a tradable bottom to work with
2014-10-16 16:57:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we chatted about a couple of weeks ago
2014-10-16 16:57:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far...
2014-10-16 16:57:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the first week of November is still looking pretty good for this low to occur
2014-10-16 16:57:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keeping in mind
2014-10-16 16:57:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that if we apply Elliott analysis to the current price structure
2014-10-16 16:58:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and keeping in mind that the market's momentum of selling can push prices to challenge the February lows
2014-10-16 16:59:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's a pretty good chance that we're still going to see another round of intense mark down as we finish off both the Elliott expectation of a 5th wave and meeting the downside price targets given by the McClellan's that haven't been fully met as yet
2014-10-16 16:59:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the McClellan sector charts
2014-10-16 16:59:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we figured last week
2014-10-16 17:00:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLY breadth MCO did move to challenge its recent lows seen in early October
2014-10-16 17:00:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it
2014-10-16 17:00:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices fell sharply into this low
2014-10-16 17:00:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: downside target here was $63
2014-10-16 17:00:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which was also met
2014-10-16 17:01:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and, in fact, yesterday and today's closes finished just above this same price objective
2014-10-16 17:01:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll call this pattern complete for now
2014-10-16 17:01:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that a reflex rally should be seen over the short term
2014-10-16 17:01:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a snapback probable all the way up to the $65 level
2014-10-16 17:02:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we saw our break of support
2014-10-16 17:02:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we do note that the declining tops line here in the XLY breadth MCO has still not been violated
2014-10-16 17:03:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the XLY breadth MCSUM now at natural support of -750
2014-10-16 17:03:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the mid caps, small caps and secondaries starting to firm
2014-10-16 17:04:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a pretty good bet that this line of negative influence will probably be broken as soon as tomorrow
2014-10-16 17:04:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the XLP breadth MCO
2014-10-16 17:05:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we touched upon last week
2014-10-16 17:05:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this index was likely to "join the others" on any break of the -50 level
2014-10-16 17:05:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we saw this happen on Friday with the shake out that followed
2014-10-16 17:05:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2014-10-16 17:06:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving down by less than 2 points is not what I call a disaster by any means
2014-10-16 17:06:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if this MCO can continue to hold above its end July bottom
2014-10-16 17:07:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's quite likely that we'll be able to maintain the string of bottoms above bottoms on the daily price chart
2014-10-16 17:07:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so don't give up the ship there just yet!
2014-10-16 17:07:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note though that the XLP breadth MCSUM is about to move down and through its zero line on Friday
2014-10-16 17:08:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so while other sectors might have a good day on the reflex
2014-10-16 17:08:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Consumer Staples may not be invited to this party and close flat to lower
2014-10-16 17:08:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no biggy
2014-10-16 17:09:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the XLE breadth MCO
2014-10-16 17:09:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it finally looks like all of the selling is now complete for this sector
2014-10-16 17:09:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that all shorts from the $98 level should now be covered
2014-10-16 17:10:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a 20% decline
2014-10-16 17:10:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not bad
2014-10-16 17:10:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all downside targets have now been met
2014-10-16 17:11:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's now time to pick through the rubble and see who's kicking
2014-10-16 17:11:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice that the XLE breadth MCSUM is now at the -2000 level
2014-10-16 17:11:23 [Message] oranges -> Chat: How do we know today's action for the XLE is not just a bounce?
2014-10-16 17:11:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's about as "oversold" that we're going to get
2014-10-16 17:11:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the high reading in the MCSUM for one which makes highly difficult to see any further selling
2014-10-16 17:11:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the way the MCO was able to fully snapback to its zero line so quickly
2014-10-16 17:12:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the greater scheme of things, however
2014-10-16 17:12:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know by experience that even if the MCSUM starts moving up from here
2014-10-16 17:12:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this doesn't mean that the price lows are behind us
2014-10-16 17:12:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only the meat of the decline from the $98 level is finished
2014-10-16 17:12:55 [Message] oranges -> Chat: k
2014-10-16 17:13:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order for this information to be beneficial to our trading
2014-10-16 17:13:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we must remember that once all targets are met
2014-10-16 17:13:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when there's been enough of an internal extreme in place
2014-10-16 17:13:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that this price chart is due to reflex a bit and push the other way
2014-10-16 17:14:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me look at a longer time frame chart on this for a moment
2014-10-16 17:14:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but before I do
2014-10-16 17:14:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another thing that suggests at least a temporary bottom here is that the news is full of stories on oil's decline now
2014-10-16 17:15:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once something is "known"'s done
2014-10-16 17:15:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one sec
2014-10-16 17:15:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here's the thing
2014-10-16 17:16:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the recent lows are challenging that of February
2014-10-16 17:16:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the rest of the market pointing to this price zone as a target
2014-10-16 17:16:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a pretty good bet that this sector is going to be supported by investment capital
2014-10-16 17:16:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially since it's already down 25%
2014-10-16 17:17:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can have fun trading the reflex
2014-10-16 17:17:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: give a moment and I'll get some targets
2014-10-16 17:18:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: $85.47 intraday is the .382 retracement of this clean Elliott 3rd wave collapse
2014-10-16 17:18:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: interestingly enough
2014-10-16 17:19:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 20 day EMA right now is $86.82
2014-10-16 17:19:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and declining
2014-10-16 17:19:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's a good target for a snapback to the faster EMA
2014-10-16 17:19:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you know what happens with collapses like this
2014-10-16 17:19:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just as fast as the tide rushes out
2014-10-16 17:19:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the tide rushes in again
2014-10-16 17:19:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the same degree of velocity
2014-10-16 17:20:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lots of folks short now...especially in the last week
2014-10-16 17:20:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they're not long to hold here
2014-10-16 17:20:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the rest of the market finds its footing
2014-10-16 17:20:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you're short the sector
2014-10-16 17:21:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then you got the greater piece of the downside action
2014-10-16 17:21:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and no sense in being a "pig" [wink]
2014-10-16 17:21:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also if you look at the price chart
2014-10-16 17:22:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's close was above the prior 3 days settlement
2014-10-16 17:22:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's a hard reversal
2014-10-16 17:22:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we usually see a lot of upside momentum still yet to come when we see such price bars take place
2014-10-16 17:25:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving quickly to the XLF breadth MCO
2014-10-16 17:25:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see that we put a divergent low on Monday
2014-10-16 17:26:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sorry...scratch that
2014-10-16 17:26:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we did NOT put in a divergent low
2014-10-16 17:26:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but do notice what happened to the price pattern once the XLF breadth MCSUM moved down and through its zero line on Wednesday...a gap down
2014-10-16 17:27:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still have a downside target of $21.50 yet to be met
2014-10-16 17:27:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with today's inside range day
2014-10-16 17:27:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could be in the midst of a simple triangle
2014-10-16 17:28:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change tonight on the XLV breadth MCO
2014-10-16 17:28:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now that we are fully washed out internally
2014-10-16 17:29:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this, and any other readings below the -100 level in the MCO's, tend to provide important price lows in the larger chart pattern
2014-10-16 17:29:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll note that the XLV breadth MCSUM moved down and through the -250 level today
2014-10-16 17:30:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI breadth MCO remains relatively weak
2014-10-16 17:30:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that can change quickly on any good follow through to the upside near term
2014-10-16 17:30:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that the XLI is closely related to the Dow Industrials and Transports components
2014-10-16 17:31:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's a pretty good chance that we will see a full snapback to the zero lie as soon as Friday
2014-10-16 17:31:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after making a lower low this week
2014-10-16 17:31:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB breadth MCO has now fully snapped back to its zero line
2014-10-16 17:32:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have a positive crossover on the components now
2014-10-16 17:32:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this
2014-10-16 17:32:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to watch the metals now
2014-10-16 17:32:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as they may be firming up as well (talking more silver and copper than I am gold)
2014-10-16 17:33:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we expected last week
2014-10-16 17:33:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK feel apart this past week
2014-10-16 17:33:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: starting with the semiconductors hard decline on Friday of 7%
2014-10-16 17:33:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: downside target here is still about $35.50
2014-10-16 17:34:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so another 7-10% from this juncture
2014-10-16 17:34:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although
2014-10-16 17:34:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can't rule out a sympathetic reflex higher before finally moving to these same price lows
2014-10-16 17:34:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in all of the weakness we've seen this past week
2014-10-16 17:35:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLU breadth MCO has remained pretty much above its zero line
2014-10-16 17:35:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: showing that money continued to move into the perceived safety of the utility sector
2014-10-16 17:36:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the chart
2014-10-16 17:36:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can make out an inverse head and shoulders configuration
2014-10-16 17:36:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the volume
2014-10-16 17:36:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: perfect
2014-10-16 17:37:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is another to watch...any breach of the neckline at just above $44, with expanding volume, would be a solid buy there
2014-10-16 17:37:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-10-16 17:37:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that we're now starting to see some stabilization in the main sectors that we cover
2014-10-16 17:37:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unlike last Thursday when they all looked dismal
2014-10-16 17:38:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now, a week later, we know why
2014-10-16 17:38:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as was pointed to last week
2014-10-16 17:38:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you feel a lot better once you give in and "puke up" your problems [tongue]
2014-10-16 17:39:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are now building buyer support
2014-10-16 17:39:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the STVO's and VTO's are deeply "oversold"
2014-10-16 17:39:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this alone tells us to cover shorts
2014-10-16 17:40:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for a relief rally back toward the MCO zero lines is the next technical expectation
2014-10-16 17:40:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...the entire market is now washed out
2014-10-16 17:40:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we saw that mid day yesterday
2014-10-16 17:40:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the Dow was down 440
2014-10-16 17:41:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we just bounced there with no direction
2014-10-16 17:41:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all the sellers who wanted to sell are now out
2014-10-16 17:41:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we have to do now is get the unwilling sellers to capitulate and then we'll have a good chance to carry on
2014-10-16 17:42:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.49
2014-10-16 17:42:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.11
2014-10-16 17:42:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "oversold"
2014-10-16 17:42:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.41
2014-10-16 17:42:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.13
2014-10-16 17:42:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.49
2014-10-16 17:42:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the market is sync here
2014-10-16 17:43:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.12
2014-10-16 17:43:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-10-16 17:43:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that the "crash like event" that we were expecting last weekend has now come and gone
2014-10-16 17:43:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the market is now in a period of trying to find its sea legs
2014-10-16 17:43:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this
2014-10-16 17:44:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should continue to see choppy, volatile sessions for the next week or so
2014-10-16 17:44:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which makes good trading for those who like to day trade
2014-10-16 17:44:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this area
2014-10-16 17:44:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: watch your intraday RSI's for your buy and sell points
2014-10-16 17:44:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for the rest
2014-10-16 17:44:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: time to take any profits on shorts and stand aside
2014-10-16 17:44:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: those who are nimble and wish to play the reflex
2014-10-16 17:45:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: may do so...but only under "hit and run" conditions
2014-10-16 17:45:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that is to say
2014-10-16 17:45:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you make your trade early in the day, and you don't want to stay around after the close
2014-10-16 17:45:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once we get OPEX out of the way
2014-10-16 17:46:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we should have enough new information to work with that will, hopefully, lead us to our next buy point
2014-10-16 17:46:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2014-10-16 17:47:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also keep your pulse on sentiment from this point forward
2014-10-16 17:47:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should peak during the upcoming "5th wave"
2014-10-16 17:48:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which'll see your highest spikes in the VIX, as but one example
2014-10-16 17:48:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...
2014-10-16 17:48:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I shouldn't say that
2014-10-16 17:48:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be wrong
2014-10-16 17:48:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are more times than not that we diverge on the VIX with new price lows
2014-10-16 17:48:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we make higher lows in the TRIN
2014-10-16 17:48:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or lower lows
2014-10-16 17:49:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whatever the case...lower than 1.20 on the Open 10, for example
2014-10-16 17:49:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so maybe we'll get our 1.30 Open 10 during that time
2014-10-16 17:49:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: keep in mind as well
2014-10-16 17:49:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the national election is polling for a Republican Congress now
2014-10-16 17:50:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with the Administration on the other side of that coin
2014-10-16 17:50:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing is going to get done for the next two years if this becomes reality
2014-10-16 17:50:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the market likes that
2014-10-16 17:50:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course there is always the "executive order"
2014-10-16 17:50:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that's for another place and time [smile]
2014-10-16 17:50:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK - if there's nothing else
2014-10-16 17:50:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2014-10-16 17:51:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2014-10-16 17:51:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll do this all again on Tuesday
2014-10-16 17:51:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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