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Posts: 4,883
Reply with quote  #1 
2013-10-16 16:00:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2013-10-16 16:00:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2013-10-16 16:01:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hey are you?
2013-10-16 16:01:56 [Message] ErlcD -> Chat: Hey Dave, Where is everybody?
2013-10-16 16:02:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know
2013-10-16 16:02:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe they gave up! [smile]
2013-10-16 16:02:44 [Message] ErlcD -> Chat: Been an interesting few days!
2013-10-16 16:03:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty interesting week...
2013-10-16 16:03:18 [Message] ErlcD -> Chat: sure has
2013-10-16 16:03:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we knew that something had to eventually give with that ridiculous Open 10 reading the first week of October
2013-10-16 16:04:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and, true to form, prices rocketed
2013-10-16 16:04:05 [Message] ErlcD -> Chat: eventually
2013-10-16 16:04:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breadth though hasn't
2013-10-16 16:04:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least through Monday
2013-10-16 16:04:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'll see how things are in a minute
2013-10-16 16:04:42 [Message] ErlcD -> Chat: anxious to see what we have tonight
2013-10-16 16:05:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or market comments before we get started??
2013-10-16 16:05:17 [Message] ErlcD -> Chat: have at it
2013-10-16 16:06:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's wait another 2 minutes as there was a Java update today and maybe some are upgrading
2013-10-16 16:06:36 [Message] ErlcD -> Chat: saw that. I resisted
2013-10-16 16:07:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will be assimilated...eventually [smile]
2013-10-16 16:10:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK..let's get DP up and see what's going on under the hood
2013-10-16 16:10:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving from highly "oversold" to above the zero line
2013-10-16 16:11:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then snapping back to this line on Tuesday
2013-10-16 16:11:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved higher today
2013-10-16 16:11:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is now challenging the recent highs made on Monday
2013-10-16 16:12:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of particular importance with this recent pattern
2013-10-16 16:12:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that we did take out all of the reactive highs made previously in this MCO
2013-10-16 16:12:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this now secures at least a temporary price bottom in the NYA index
2013-10-16 16:12:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially if we see that the NYSE Composite breadth MCO did the same
2013-10-16 16:12:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's take a look
2013-10-16 16:13:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now there's good news and not so good news here
2013-10-16 16:13:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we did find snapback support at the zero line like we did with CO data
2013-10-16 16:13:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we actually moved to a higher high today
2013-10-16 16:14:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the overall structure shows us that we still remain below pattern resistance
2013-10-16 16:14:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE breadth MCSUM
2013-10-16 16:14:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the pattern remains highly congested and overall indecisive
2013-10-16 16:15:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as if something is weighing on the pattern from allowing to spring higher
2013-10-16 16:15:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the best interpretative analysis of this recent congestion would be that of a ledge
2013-10-16 16:15:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as Sherman McClellan likes to say
2013-10-16 16:16:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "ledges are formed to fall off of"
2013-10-16 16:16:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now..the timing here is that we usually see some sort of trigger to this pattern formation within 4 trading days off its start
2013-10-16 16:17:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and today would be day 4
2013-10-16 16:17:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so Thursday is now setting up as an near term important point in the pattern
2013-10-16 16:17:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we'll either see an upside acceleration
2013-10-16 16:18:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would be part of the NYSE breadth MCO moving above this same pattern resistance
2013-10-16 16:18:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or that we'll fall off the ledge into what will be our final lows for this correctional sequence
2013-10-16 16:19:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also of note here
2013-10-16 16:19:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that if we do take out the last of the reaction highs in the NYSE breadth MCO
2013-10-16 16:19:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will then cancel any or all downside price target objectives that were given previously
2013-10-16 16:19:55 [Message] ErlcD -> Chat: if we accelerate up we'll have very little structure. No?
2013-10-16 16:20:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that the initial downside target of 9500 would be the only one that was met
2013-10-16 16:20:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we would Eric
2013-10-16 16:20:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and given the current climate in which we've been trading for the last 2 weeks
2013-10-16 16:21:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that we had an deeply "oversold" Open 10 for the first week of this sequence
2013-10-16 16:21:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as the MCO continues it's natural ebb and flow of providing a spike bottom
2013-10-16 16:21:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving above the zero line
2013-10-16 16:21:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapping back to the zero line
2013-10-16 16:21:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to higher highs
2013-10-16 16:22:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and THEN taking out the technical point in the pattern which preceded the washout point
2013-10-16 16:22:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we can work with this moving forward and toss it off to outside forces
2013-10-16 16:22:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this kind of thing does happen
2013-10-16 16:23:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the one thing that I wouldn't fade here is that based on this "ease of sequence"
2013-10-16 16:24:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we should respect the pattern for this same strength of character
2013-10-16 16:24:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2013-10-16 16:24:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: personally
2013-10-16 16:24:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would be somewhat surprised if this did happen
2013-10-16 16:24:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2013-10-16 16:24:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when looking at the intraday breadth data
2013-10-16 16:24:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all time periods are very strong right now
2013-10-16 16:25:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be short covering
2013-10-16 16:25:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: mixed in with a bit of relief
2013-10-16 16:25:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: mixed in with the concept that money has to go somewhere, and the economic data remains firm
2013-10-16 16:25:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at Europe
2013-10-16 16:25:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the DAX continues to make new all time highs
2013-10-16 16:25:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: during the last couple of weeks
2013-10-16 16:26:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we "take away" the problems here
2013-10-16 16:26:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one could make a good case that without this clarity of government
2013-10-16 16:26:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might be making new highs as well
2013-10-16 16:26:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then you look around at the NDX and COMPQ
2013-10-16 16:26:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they're at new highs
2013-10-16 16:26:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so is the SML
2013-10-16 16:27:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the problem with the Composite NYSE data though
2013-10-16 16:27:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: continues to be with the interest rate sensitive issues
2013-10-16 16:27:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then when we look at the weekly breadth chart array over the weekend
2013-10-16 16:27:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the overall tone isn't that bearish at all
2013-10-16 16:28:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as you have the Specialties near their all time highs
2013-10-16 16:28:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Preferred just holding right below their declining tops line
2013-10-16 16:28:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the REITS and BONDS have remained firm over the last couple of weeks
2013-10-16 16:28:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2013-10-16 16:28:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although we would prefer texture
2013-10-16 16:28:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we may still get it
2013-10-16 16:29:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the more important focus has been, and continues to be, the sequence of declining spike tops in the MCO's
2013-10-16 16:29:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they are all taken out
2013-10-16 16:29:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears will then have lost their control
2013-10-16 16:29:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that gives the bulls the opportunity to take this away and run with it
2013-10-16 16:30:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now with all said
2013-10-16 16:30:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the rest of the market is doing
2013-10-16 16:30:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and see if there's any consistency
2013-10-16 16:30:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...the NASDAQ breadth MCO did take out the last of its resistance points on Monday
2013-10-16 16:31:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapped back to the zero line on Tuesday
2013-10-16 16:31:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but hasn't, as yet, moved to a higher high
2013-10-16 16:31:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this then leaves the door open to some sort of backing and filling event still yet to come
2013-10-16 16:32:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and something like this is being suggested by the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM's ledge formation
2013-10-16 16:32:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where, again, we should have some sort of resolution to this by tomorrow
2013-10-16 16:32:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NDX breadth MCO
2013-10-16 16:32:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have the same pattern as the Composite
2013-10-16 16:33:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the amplitude of Monday's spike is weaker than the total marketplace
2013-10-16 16:33:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would think that the top 100 would lead the rest of the secondaries
2013-10-16 16:34:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, this too, could and should keep us from triggering a long trade too soon
2013-10-16 16:34:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not until, at least we see better strength of pattern
2013-10-16 16:35:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would be something on the level of a move above the +25 level on the NDX breadth MCO
2013-10-16 16:35:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only would this be important technically
2013-10-16 16:35:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it would then confirm the recent new recovery price highs we see on the chart
2013-10-16 16:35:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without this higher bid of internal strength
2013-10-16 16:36:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're not likely to hold these current levels
2013-10-16 16:36:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and hard reversal bars are most times created
2013-10-16 16:36:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like reaching the apex of an amusement park ride and suddenly shutting off the motor
2013-10-16 16:37:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO is also in this same boat
2013-10-16 16:37:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we are only challenging the Monday high point
2013-10-16 16:38:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but unless the buyers continue to step in here
2013-10-16 16:38:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're likely to leave behind a near term exhaustion point
2013-10-16 16:38:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very similar to what we saw back in late April on the chart
2013-10-16 16:38:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we did some backing and filling
2013-10-16 16:39:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we continued on our merry way
2013-10-16 16:39:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...from another angle
2013-10-16 16:39:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we look at the SPX breadth MCSUM 21 day close up chart
2013-10-16 16:40:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will see that we had a slightly higher high today
2013-10-16 16:40:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we remain muffled within some important gap resistance zone
2013-10-16 16:40:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the most important of which lies just beyond the +250 level
2013-10-16 16:41:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that will need to be closed in order for the intermediate term trend to resume to the upside
2013-10-16 16:41:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there are still lots of hurdles still yet for the bulls
2013-10-16 16:41:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even if they improve upon the near term challenges
2013-10-16 16:42:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hey...
2013-10-16 16:42:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have a series of declining tops on the SPX MCSUM that will also keep things from being "in the clear"
2013-10-16 16:42:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one step at a time
2013-10-16 16:43:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much the same situation with the OEX breadth MCO and MCSUM
2013-10-16 16:43:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where like the SPX
2013-10-16 16:43:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we do see the buyers show more conviction here
2013-10-16 16:43:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will move to new price highs...and we'll stay there as well
2013-10-16 16:43:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once again
2013-10-16 16:44:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the shorts will be scorched again
2013-10-16 16:44:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every single "worry" point in the price pattern structure for the last 2 years now have failed to produce anything of substance for the shorts
2013-10-16 16:44:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one has to wonder how deep their pockets really are now
2013-10-16 16:45:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much the same situation internally with the Dow breadth MCO and MCSUM
2013-10-16 16:46:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though the Dow price pattern is probably keeping many from appreciating the strength of new highs that we're seeing in the other areas of the market
2013-10-16 16:46:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure looks like a ledge on the Dow breadth MCSUM
2013-10-16 16:46:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll know for sure by Friday at the latest
2013-10-16 16:46:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...gee's OPEX this Friday
2013-10-16 16:47:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all those speculative put buyers...they once again will see their visions of making a killing expire worthless
2013-10-16 16:47:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's really sad
2013-10-16 16:48:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can add the MID at making new price highs today
2013-10-16 16:48:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the MID breadth MCO is really not confirming the move
2013-10-16 16:48:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bulls really need to step up to the bar and show some backbone
2013-10-16 16:49:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or we may see a sharp move lower back to around the 1235 level
2013-10-16 16:49:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the 1 year MID price chart
2013-10-16 16:49:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until those series of bottoms above bottoms are broken
2013-10-16 16:49:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as a chartist
2013-10-16 16:49:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trend remains higher
2013-10-16 16:50:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and any corrections in this trending pattern are part of testing this line of positive influence
2013-10-16 16:50:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: add deep "oversold" readings with each bottom
2013-10-16 16:50:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you have a classic example of a "wall of worry" in progress
2013-10-16 16:51:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new all time high close in the SML price index
2013-10-16 16:51:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just checked
2013-10-16 16:51:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the RUT also closed at all time highs as well
2013-10-16 16:51:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but....
2013-10-16 16:52:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCO is NOT confirming today's price close
2013-10-16 16:52:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have to be cautious until we get better underlying support in the pattern
2013-10-16 16:52:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less
2013-10-16 16:52:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCSUM has pretty much finished a technical snapback up to the +500 level as well
2013-10-16 16:53:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so near term
2013-10-16 16:53:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not so much do or die for the bulls here
2013-10-16 16:53:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as they have maintained price pattern control for many months
2013-10-16 16:53:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's really do or die for the bears
2013-10-16 16:54:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as they MUST do something HERE and NOW or they will again lose any chance of affecting the direction of the market
2013-10-16 16:54:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like a new all time closing price highs for the Wilshire 5000 as well
2013-10-16 16:54:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it too was not confirmed by the internals
2013-10-16 16:55:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so either we'll see a reset
2013-10-16 16:55:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or we push forward
2013-10-16 16:55:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2013-10-16 16:56:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that the bears last opportunity to extend the correctional sequence from mid September is here
2013-10-16 16:56:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and unless they we see some sort attempt by the sellers to make a statement near term
2013-10-16 16:56:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're likely to see a resumption of the ongoing trend to the upside
2013-10-16 16:56:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also notice that the BETS never went to a cash position last weekend
2013-10-16 16:57:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the track record there is that we usually see a good 1-2 week tip off to any change of direction that might be coming with this indicator
2013-10-16 16:57:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and while we're talking about it
2013-10-16 16:57:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the latest number
2013-10-16 16:57:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one moment
2013-10-16 16:59:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're see very good pattern support on the NYUD and NYAD in relation to their EMA's right now
2013-10-16 16:59:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's a bullish sign
2013-10-16 16:59:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: +25 - no change
2013-10-16 17:00:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: watch the TSX though
2013-10-16 17:00:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Canadian stocks look like their taking their cues from the European bourses
2013-10-16 17:00:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to be candid
2013-10-16 17:00:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once this indigestion is out of the way here in the US
2013-10-16 17:01:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the global indices are suggesting continued upside strength
2013-10-16 17:01:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as always
2013-10-16 17:01:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it comes down to one word
2013-10-16 17:01:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "clarity"
2013-10-16 17:01:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's check the volume end of the equation
2013-10-16 17:01:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...
2013-10-16 17:01:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hello...
2013-10-16 17:01:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO volume MCO is leading higher now
2013-10-16 17:02:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there are fresh funds coming into the market here beside that of short covering
2013-10-16 17:02:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the composite is doing
2013-10-16 17:02:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: higher high as well on the NYSE Composite volume MCO
2013-10-16 17:03:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is pushing the NYSE Composite volume MCSUM higher and leading breadth to the upside
2013-10-16 17:03:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in both cases though
2013-10-16 17:03:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we take out our MCSUM gap resistance areas on both breadth and volume
2013-10-16 17:04:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we really don't have a high confidence to trade the market as that of a trend
2013-10-16 17:04:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will tend to be volatile, choppy, but with a bullish bias
2013-10-16 17:04:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there's certainly nothing wrong with the volume end of the market currently
2013-10-16 17:05:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now, on the other hand, the NASDAQ volume MCO is not showing any kind of vigor here
2013-10-16 17:05:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the NASDAQ volume MCSUM still well above the +500 level
2013-10-16 17:05:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it doesn't take much in the way of fuel to drive prices higher anyway
2013-10-16 17:06:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think of the space shuttle
2013-10-16 17:06:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's already in orbit
2013-10-16 17:06:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it wants to make a mid course correction to a higher altitude
2013-10-16 17:06:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all it needs is for a short burst to do so since the influence of gravity is very small
2013-10-16 17:06:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why prices are able to not only maintain their high levels
2013-10-16 17:07:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with each burst higher in the MCO
2013-10-16 17:07:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it easily propels the shuttle (prices) higher
2013-10-16 17:07:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same kind of short term problems as well with the NDX volume MCO
2013-10-16 17:08:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but prices can still move to higher highs given how far away we are from the zero line on the NDX volume MCSUM
2013-10-16 17:08:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX volume MCO looks quite similar to its breadth cousin
2013-10-16 17:08:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this market is in sync
2013-10-16 17:08:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when in sync
2013-10-16 17:08:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the easier for prices to trend
2013-10-16 17:09:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX volume MCSUM found zero line support
2013-10-16 17:09:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the lack of follow through there
2013-10-16 17:09:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls have to be careful of a Summation Failure developing here
2013-10-16 17:10:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not that it would be as dramatic as it would be on the breadth end
2013-10-16 17:10:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it would be more akin to climbing a wall of ice and losing your footing
2013-10-16 17:10:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market can slip and slide
2013-10-16 17:10:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then regain a foothold quite quickly as well
2013-10-16 17:11:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow volume MCSUM is now back above its zero line
2013-10-16 17:11:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and also above its gap resistance point
2013-10-16 17:11:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the bears need to respect this for what it may imply
2013-10-16 17:11:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Senate has just passed their bill to "reopen" the government
2013-10-16 17:12:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now we'll see what the House does
2013-10-16 17:12:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: probably later tonight or tomorrow
2013-10-16 17:12:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least, that's the last I heard
2013-10-16 17:12:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unlike the MID breadth MCO
2013-10-16 17:13:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID volume MCO did confirm today's new all time closing highs on the MID index
2013-10-16 17:13:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any further confirmation on the breadth end would then allow this basket of stocks to move into deeper all time territory
2013-10-16 17:14:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Dow futures are down 45
2013-10-16 17:14:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: SPX down 2 on the Senate news
2013-10-16 17:14:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no bullish confirmation on the SML volume MCO
2013-10-16 17:14:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so more work is needed there
2013-10-16 17:15:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM volume MCO is challenging not only its zero line
2013-10-16 17:15:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this also the level of horizontal pattern resistance
2013-10-16 17:15:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2013-10-16 17:15:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: are we at resistance and doomed to back and fill??
2013-10-16 17:16:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or are we at resistance and about to break above it??
2013-10-16 17:16:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: place your bets
2013-10-16 17:16:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with OPEX coming in the next couple of days
2013-10-16 17:16:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's probably more prudent to wait for some sort of breadth and volume confirmation before leading off
2013-10-16 17:17:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and do NOT assume that with the news out that the market will now sell off
2013-10-16 17:17:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have seen so many times before
2013-10-16 17:17:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you underestimate the underlying strength of this market
2013-10-16 17:17:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you usually get your head handed to you
2013-10-16 17:18:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are close to being "overbought"
2013-10-16 17:18:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's not enough to call for a change in direction
2013-10-16 17:18:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are now generally "overbought"
2013-10-16 17:18:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that's one thing in favor for the sellers
2013-10-16 17:19:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the VTO's are pretty much on the bullish side of neutral
2013-10-16 17:19:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not enough as yet to call a intermediate term bottom though
2013-10-16 17:19:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we do back and fill
2013-10-16 17:19:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we can then get the all three of these volume oscillators to go to "oversold"
2013-10-16 17:19:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be our entry
2013-10-16 17:20:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .67
2013-10-16 17:20:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .93
2013-10-16 17:20:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much neutral there
2013-10-16 17:20:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice though
2013-10-16 17:21:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that with a 4% rally in the SPX
2013-10-16 17:21:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still have not moved to "overbought"
2013-10-16 17:21:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are...neutral, balanced
2013-10-16 17:21:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not surprisingly
2013-10-16 17:21:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're neutral at the same price area where this whole mess started
2013-10-16 17:21:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we can now say that we are fairly valued
2013-10-16 17:22:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .70
2013-10-16 17:22:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.12!
2013-10-16 17:22:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're finally "oversold" there
2013-10-16 17:22:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: exactly what we were looking for to happen 2 weeks ago
2013-10-16 17:23:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now if we can get the NYSE back to "oversold"
2013-10-16 17:23:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the volume oscillators
2013-10-16 17:23:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that should be enough for a re-initiation
2013-10-16 17:23:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .75
2013-10-16 17:23:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.05
2013-10-16 17:23:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so minimally "oversold" there
2013-10-16 17:23:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2013-10-16 17:24:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: minus a slip and fall near term
2013-10-16 17:24:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would give us a pretty good reset in the various MCO's
2013-10-16 17:24:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would appear that our reaching any outstanding downside objectives may be cancelled by next week
2013-10-16 17:25:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and depending on what we see here
2013-10-16 17:25:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could be off to the races again by the middle part of next week which has been our ongoing time window for several weeks now for completion of this same correctional sequence
2013-10-16 17:25:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll just have to see
2013-10-16 17:25:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the biggest foundation here was that deeply "oversold" reading in the NYSE Open 10
2013-10-16 17:26:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the last time we saw it move to these kind of levels it was good for about a 20% gain in prices
2013-10-16 17:26:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how it goes this time
2013-10-16 17:26:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2013-10-16 17:28:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to fall or not fall...that is the question [smile]
2013-10-16 17:28:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one thing's for sure
2013-10-16 17:28:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this recent pullback was very healthy for the longer term price structure
2013-10-16 17:28:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all that we're missing here is actual timing of a resumption
2013-10-16 17:29:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hopefully we'll have more to work from in that regard by Tuesday of next week
2013-10-16 17:29:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but make no mistake
2013-10-16 17:29:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Thursday will turn out to be an important day in this same timing
2013-10-16 17:30:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the ISEE data continues to show lots of put buying
2013-10-16 17:30:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it eased off a bit for 2 or 3 days
2013-10-16 17:31:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but every rally has been met with sellers
2013-10-16 17:31:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else
2013-10-16 17:31:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to close
2013-10-16 17:31:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember we have another chat tomorrow
2013-10-16 17:32:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we're back to a Tuesday/Thursday format for a couple of weeks
2013-10-16 17:32:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just to give you a heads up
2013-10-16 17:32:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will be taking my first vacation in 3 years the week of November 18th
2013-10-16 17:32:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there will be no chat sessions that week
2013-10-16 17:32:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will find a way to make up the days lost within the month of November
2013-10-16 17:33:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just have to figure out when
2013-10-16 17:33:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...everyone have a great evening
2013-10-16 17:33:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll chat again tomorrow
2013-10-16 17:33:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2013-10-16 17:33:35 [Message] ErlcD -> Chat: Thanks

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