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Posts: 4,867
Reply with quote  #1 
2008-10-16 19:00:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good day
2008-10-16 19:00:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how is everyone?
2008-10-16 19:00:37 [Message] lew -> Main Room: Doing great. SWEET call on that triangle Fib!!! $$$$$
2008-10-16 19:00:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-10-16 19:01:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it a triangle?
2008-10-16 19:01:13 [Message] lew -> Main Room: I think so
2008-10-16 19:01:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could it be a small 2 up in the final 5th wave down of Minor degree?
2008-10-16 19:01:40 [Message] lew -> Main Room: Bought 880. will sell it tomorrow
2008-10-16 19:02:49 [Message] lew -> Main Room: if it is a 2 up, it's counting out in a 5 wave-so no matter, really
2008-10-16 19:03:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you want to play a bit with the Elliott stuff here?
2008-10-16 19:04:07 [Message] lew -> Main Room: You bet
2008-10-16 19:04:21 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I like Greek
2008-10-16 19:04:26 [Message] bill -> Main Room: flat looks good on ndx as well
2008-10-16 19:04:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...let's bring up a hourly chart, line form, SPX cash, start date 10/9/08
2008-10-16 19:05:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let me know when you have it up
2008-10-16 19:06:15 [Message] lew -> Main Room: got it
2008-10-16 19:07:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm looking at SC...can anyone tell me what the low print at 13:00 is on 10/10?
2008-10-16 19:07:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we'll have some Fibonacci fun!
2008-10-16 19:07:43 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: 837 on ES for additional fun
2008-10-16 19:08:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we can use that...but I would prefer cash...
2008-10-16 19:08:12 [Message] lew -> Main Room: 839.80
2008-10-16 19:08:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: thanks
2008-10-16 19:08:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...
2008-10-16 19:08:34 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: I will track ES
2008-10-16 19:08:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: rounding the numbers
2008-10-16 19:09:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: from Friday's bottom to Tuesday's top = 1014 - 839 = 175 points
2008-10-16 19:09:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...we were looking for a simple .618 retracement on Tuesday for wave "b"
2008-10-16 19:09:44 [Message] lew -> Main Room: top not 1044?
2008-10-16 19:09:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: close only - hourly
2008-10-16 19:10:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I have 1014.44?
2008-10-16 19:10:09 [Message] lew -> Main Room: ok
2008-10-16 19:10:17 [Message] lew -> Main Room: then yes
2008-10-16 19:10:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: trying to keep this as clean as possible
2008-10-16 19:10:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the Fib retracement comes in at 906
2008-10-16 19:10:53 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: ES close high is 1017
2008-10-16 19:11:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and you'll notice that once we broke this level late in the afternoon on Wednesday, we basically fell apart into the close
2008-10-16 19:11:10 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: 839.80 not a close?
2008-10-16 19:11:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hourly chart, not daily
2008-10-16 19:11:21 [Message] lew -> Main Room: 844 as a close, sorry
2008-10-16 19:11:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...when when we broke this level
2008-10-16 19:12:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: there is only on more Fib level that would consistent to the symmetrical triangle would be a .763% retracement
2008-10-16 19:13:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if we take this number, and subtract it from 1014, we get 880
2008-10-16 19:13:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the low was....?
2008-10-16 19:13:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (drum roll)
2008-10-16 19:13:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 878
2008-10-16 19:13:15 [Message] lew -> Main Room: NICE
2008-10-16 19:13:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-10-16 19:13:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...if we switch to a 5 minute chart to see today's action...
2008-10-16 19:13:38 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: did you buy the low?
2008-10-16 19:14:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you will see we did 5 up from this low
2008-10-16 19:14:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a mid afternoon triangle...and then moved higher into the close
2008-10-16 19:14:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: A-B-C
2008-10-16 19:14:31 [Message] lew -> Main Room: I think only 5 up of 3
2008-10-16 19:14:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: wave "a" was complete before the afternoon triangle
2008-10-16 19:15:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which was wave "b"
2008-10-16 19:15:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now...on the 5 minute we can make out 5 up into todays close from this same triangle
2008-10-16 19:15:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so let's do a bit of Fib work
2008-10-16 19:16:05 [Message] lew -> Main Room: if so, where is your 4 of 3?
2008-10-16 19:16:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 1014 - 878 = 136 points
2008-10-16 19:16:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we're still working on the 4th wave triangle - now in Minuette wave "C"
2008-10-16 19:17:00 [Message] lew -> Main Room: yes, but on your 5 up, where is your 4 of 3?
2008-10-16 19:17:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the objective would be 136 points x .618 = 962
2008-10-16 19:17:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: do you have the 5 minute chart up?
2008-10-16 19:17:26 [Message] lew -> Main Room: Y
2008-10-16 19:17:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: line form?
2008-10-16 19:17:32 [Message] lew -> Main Room: Y
2008-10-16 19:18:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: wave (iv) would be the little correction seen between 15:00 and 15:30
2008-10-16 19:18:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: see it?
2008-10-16 19:18:39 [Message] lew -> Main Room: Y, but I see that as 4 of 3, not a regular 4
2008-10-16 19:18:55 [Message] lew -> Main Room: if not, where is the 4 of 3?
2008-10-16 19:18:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the triangle ended at 14:45
2008-10-16 19:19:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: of the bigger Minute degree?
2008-10-16 19:20:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (always good to label where you are in this kind of work or one can get very lost)
2008-10-16 19:20:12 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So what is 1445 to 1600?
2008-10-16 19:20:17 [Message] lew -> Main Room: the most minute 4 of the 3 up
2008-10-16 19:20:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: different degree of trend TM...not applicable here
2008-10-16 19:20:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...we're not on the same page
2008-10-16 19:20:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: make it simple
2008-10-16 19:21:07 [Message] lew -> Main Room: I see, you are counting 5 from triangle end, I was counting 5 from start at 11.10
2008-10-16 19:21:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 5 minute chart - line's bounce off the mornings lows at 11:00 was the start of Minuette wave "C" of the larger Minute triangle on the daily chart
2008-10-16 19:21:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and since we have wave's "D" and "E" to go, Minute wave 4 is still not complete
2008-10-16 19:22:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with me?
2008-10-16 19:22:27 [Message] lew -> Main Room: Y, but I do not see the last small 5 count as complete
2008-10-16 19:22:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK..we're now on the same page
2008-10-16 19:22:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: correct...the .618 objective is 962
2008-10-16 19:22:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where did we close?
2008-10-16 19:23:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 946?
2008-10-16 19:23:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: still not complete
2008-10-16 19:23:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-10-16 19:23:16 [Message] lew -> Main Room: YES!
2008-10-16 19:23:25 [Message] lew -> Main Room: and thx
2008-10-16 19:23:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in any event, those who did switch to the hourly chart, can see the triangle pattern in motion
2008-10-16 19:23:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, for tomorrow...the likely course would be a higher open to finish out Wave "c"
2008-10-16 19:24:14 [Message] lew -> Main Room: should we use the 61.8, after just seeing the .763?
2008-10-16 19:24:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: an afternoon three wave decline...and then one more small move up - probably on Monday - and then Minute wave 4 will be finished
2008-10-16 19:24:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's be conservative - .618
2008-10-16 19:24:56 [Message] lew -> Main Room: cool
2008-10-16 19:25:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: given the high amount of energy into Minute wave iii's bottom, it should be expected that the pattern itself is going to overshoot Fib targets initially...until it calms down moving into the apex of the pattern
2008-10-16 19:25:57 [Message] lew -> Main Room: and, on the same page - semantics issue, thx
2008-10-16 19:26:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-10-16 19:26:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: fun stuff...especially if it works out
2008-10-16 19:26:36 [Message] lew -> Main Room: the best, and as I said, $$$$$$ LOL
2008-10-16 19:26:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...any questions or comments before we get started?
2008-10-16 19:26:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-10-16 19:26:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: glad to hear it
2008-10-16 19:27:05 [Message] lew -> Main Room: you really nailed the path, so much appreciated
2008-10-16 19:27:09 [Message] HereIAM -> Main Room: Is there another book besides the Frost book to look at Elliott?
2008-10-16 19:27:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sometimes you get lucky
2008-10-16 19:27:17 [Message] lew -> Main Room: thats why I bought 880
2008-10-16 19:27:27 [Message] HereIAM -> Main Room: It hasn't taken for me. no Elliott gene?
2008-10-16 19:27:44 [Message] lew -> Main Room: was waiting like a vulture
2008-10-16 19:27:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not takes putting this stuff into practice that really works
2008-10-16 19:28:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the "Blue Book" is the primer
2008-10-16 19:28:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let me make something very clear here
2008-10-16 19:28:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Elliott is the most difficult methodology out there
2008-10-16 19:28:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but here's the trick
2008-10-16 19:28:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: or tricks..
2008-10-16 19:29:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: first...Elliott only labels price structures as to understand what may happen moving forward based on the past
2008-10-16 19:29:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you already do this with simple charting techniques
2008-10-16 19:29:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the real back bone of Elliott is the pschology that accompanies these same structures that helps in firming up this same labeling
2008-10-16 19:30:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the easiest labeling's are impulsive structures
2008-10-16 19:30:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where the trend is undeniable
2008-10-16 19:30:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but you have to remember that the market is correcting about 80% of the time
2008-10-16 19:30:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this is where many get hung up with the concept
2008-10-16 19:31:07 [Message] HereIAM -> Main Room: It seems to be correcting me about that much. :/
2008-10-16 19:31:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as correctional patterns can have so many variances to them depending on the underlying reasons why traders are indecisive on direction
2008-10-16 19:31:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-10-16 19:31:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it takes time...and discipline
2008-10-16 19:31:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would never suggest that ANYONE use the Elliott as a stand alone
2008-10-16 19:32:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but understanding that Elliott is just an extension on basic price, volume, and momentum techniques, puts you far ahead of many who try to utilize this area of analysis in their own work
2008-10-16 19:33:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...if you have a hard time understanding the basics...price and volume's going to be very hard to work with this tool
2008-10-16 19:33:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: experience, in this case, IS the best teacher
2008-10-16 19:33:44 [Message] HereIAM -> Main Room: actually, my tools served me quite well today
2008-10-16 19:33:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and not putting this method on a platform
2008-10-16 19:33:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: excellent
2008-10-16 19:34:10 [Message] lew -> Main Room: I'm trying to create my own time pattern on the waves, but need much more refining
2008-10-16 19:34:13 [Message] HereIAM -> Main Room: but sentiment is supposed to be built into Elliott structure, no?
2008-10-16 19:34:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so the use of Elliott for you would be more as an exercise
2008-10-16 19:34:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (mass) psychology...not so much in the way of sentiment
2008-10-16 19:34:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: two different things
2008-10-16 19:35:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and where many have problems is...
2008-10-16 19:35:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that they allow themselves to be part of this same mass thinking
2008-10-16 19:35:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you have to be market neutral
2008-10-16 19:35:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you have to allow the price pattern to continue to prove itself to you
2008-10-16 19:35:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just like you do when you see a set up
2008-10-16 19:36:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's no different...but many tend to over do it
2008-10-16 19:36:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everything is a 3 of 3
2008-10-16 19:36:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everything is a crash
2008-10-16 19:36:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is not the way to use this kind of tool
2008-10-16 19:37:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it would be like trying to play like Elton John without learning how to play scales in the first place
2008-10-16 19:37:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we all also have to consider that not everything is going to work for you
2008-10-16 19:37:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but what we try to do in here
2008-10-16 19:38:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: is work with the foundation of everything technical and THEN try to see how it might work together in one cohesive fashion
2008-10-16 19:38:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for me...Elliott is number 4 on the list of what I consider important
2008-10-16 19:38:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in other's always on the back burner
2008-10-16 19:39:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if the pattern shows a tendency to work with what basic charting techniques suggest, then I can apply a label
2008-10-16 19:39:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the really tough part being
2008-10-16 19:39:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the degree of trend of this same labeling
2008-10-16 19:40:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: very difficult to do - especially if you like to trade with a short term mind set
2008-10-16 19:40:12 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: ok, I'll bite BITE, what are the first three?
2008-10-16 19:40:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if this is the case, it is far better to fade this kind of stuff than to even acknowledge it
2008-10-16 19:40:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: money flow, and the direction of this money flow element
2008-10-16 19:41:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in relation to the price structure(s) itself
2008-10-16 19:41:44 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: money flow and direction of money flow are two thing? or one?
2008-10-16 19:42:00 [Message] lew -> Main Room: by price structure you mean?
2008-10-16 19:42:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: think of a river
2008-10-16 19:42:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the money that's available to invest flows down this river
2008-10-16 19:42:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if this flow of funds is able to find a tributary to fill, it moves into these areas first
2008-10-16 19:42:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...the direction of the A/D line is number one
2008-10-16 19:43:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where this same money is moving into (or out of) is next
2008-10-16 19:43:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then into which "capillary" of this same tributary is last
2008-10-16 19:43:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 60% of your market decision should be based on whether the market is either friendly or hostile
2008-10-16 19:44:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in either case, 30% should be based on which sector (or sectors) it's flowing into
2008-10-16 19:44:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the single issue being the final arbitrator
2008-10-16 19:44:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 60/30/10
2008-10-16 19:44:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'll worry about counts later
2008-10-16 19:45:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: keep it simple
2008-10-16 19:45:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: counts are just an exercise of confirmation...and what MAY happen because of this same flow of money
2008-10-16 19:46:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with Elliott, you have guidelines, but you really don't a clue on whether the price pattern will contract or expand...only money flow allows this kind of insight
2008-10-16 19:46:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and once known, then you can apply a probable outcome
2008-10-16 19:46:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...Elliott only labels what you already know
2008-10-16 19:47:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room:
2008-10-16 19:47:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2008-10-16 19:48:34 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: some consider today a test of the Friday low and so IT low is behind us. Anything to this as opposed to the upcoming Wave 5 down?
2008-10-16 19:48:47 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: do I correctly understand that SPX 962 is the high you expect before we head down again?
2008-10-16 19:49:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bottom line...the current cash SPX count is: Minuette "c" of Minute "iv" of Minor 3 of Intermediate 3
2008-10-16 19:49:27 [Message] lew -> Main Room: perfect bottom line
2008-10-16 19:49:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 962 would be the .618 target...yes
2008-10-16 19:50:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in other words...we are cutting hairs now on the count...don't let it distract you
2008-10-16 19:50:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: trade what you see
2008-10-16 19:51:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: oh...and for those who may want to know what would change the count...
2008-10-16 19:51:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a move above the .763 retracement level would call the current triangle into question
2008-10-16 19:52:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: ready for this?
2008-10-16 19:52:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the small "c" wave were currently in would be show equality with wave "A" at SPX cash 943
2008-10-16 19:53:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...minimally, we're done
2008-10-16 19:53:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's just a guideline ladies and gents...let's see how things open tomorrow
2008-10-16 19:54:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I could break this down to such a degree that it truly would have your head spinning
2008-10-16 19:54:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so let's get to the good stuff
2008-10-16 19:54:30 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: already so
2008-10-16 19:54:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one moment - I'll get DP up
2008-10-16 19:54:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: lol
2008-10-16 19:54:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's very hard to talk about this complexity in this kind of medium
2008-10-16 19:55:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's hard to talk about Elliott face to face!!
2008-10-16 19:55:24 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: easier to mark up a Chopin etude with all the minuettes and so forth
2008-10-16 19:55:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bottom line...we're currently in a triangle unless the market suggests otherwise
2008-10-16 19:55:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why Elliott is as complex as it is
2008-10-16 19:55:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I don't believe in alternate counts
2008-10-16 19:56:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if used properly, Elliott works very well as a compliment
2008-10-16 19:57:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but like I said before, there are many tools out there, they should all have a chance to prove themselves to you, but you can't expect everything to work
2008-10-16 19:57:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for me...candlesticks...bah...humbug
2008-10-16 19:57:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but one should try everything
2008-10-16 19:57:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if it makes sense to you, and more importantly, you can make money from something analytical, excellent!
2008-10-16 19:58:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if it doesn't...don't look back
2008-10-16 19:58:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after pulling back yesterday, the CO NYSE breadth MCO moved to higher highs today
2008-10-16 19:59:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it still remains below the short term declining tops line
2008-10-16 19:59:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...I should elaborate a bit
2008-10-16 19:59:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the accelerated declining tops line was violated today
2008-10-16 20:00:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which is fine since as this would confirm a 4th wave in progress
2008-10-16 20:00:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember that 4th waves are part of the final pieces that need to fit as we move into a pattern bottom (or top)
2008-10-16 20:01:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where the extremes that pushed price into this same direction begin to wade
2008-10-16 20:01:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the more important declining line here is the one from the late August MCO top
2008-10-16 20:01:54 [Message] locus -> Main Room: sorry late dave but what do you think about w5 minute degree bottom today
2008-10-16 20:02:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if we're correct on the current count, this defensive line should not be violated until Minor 3 down is complete
2008-10-16 20:02:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (remember that Minor 3 is made of 5 waves of Minute degree - where now in Minute wave 4)
2008-10-16 20:03:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking at the daily bar, we had a nice reversal today on the NYA after testing the closing lows of last Friday
2008-10-16 20:03:39 [Message] locus -> Main Room: fall from Tuesday high to today low one point short of w1 = w5 minute degree
2008-10-16 20:04:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the price internals, already discussed, only suggest that this is not a solid reversal, more of chop within a consolidation
2008-10-16 20:04:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...thanks locus
2008-10-16 20:04:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's touch on that since I started talking about this earlier
2008-10-16 20:04:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if you look at the structure of the decline from Tuesday morning's top
2008-10-16 20:05:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it does have more of a impulsive look to it than that of being a corrective pattern
2008-10-16 20:05:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and being that it did move beyond the .618 retracement level
2008-10-16 20:05:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is something that needs to be brought to the table
2008-10-16 20:05:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now..
2008-10-16 20:06:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if this two day pattern is wave 1 down of Minute 5
2008-10-16 20:06:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: meaning that Tuesday's top was ALL of Minute wave 4
2008-10-16 20:07:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: then having almost retraced .618 of this same structure today at the close, does present the consideration that this could be Minuette wave 2 of Minute wave 5 (a full completion of Minor wave 3 would be a low probability at this stage)
2008-10-16 20:07:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: IF this is the case, after a morning rally to finish off this .618 target mentioned earlier, the market will then be ready to move lower in what would be wave 3 of this same 5th wave
2008-10-16 20:07:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and with it...another crash like event
2008-10-16 20:07:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: thinking further
2008-10-16 20:08:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if this were to occur, more than likely, the end of Minute 5 of Minor 3 should take place by Tuesday morning of next week
2008-10-16 20:09:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: thinking of that any hard close into the weekend would provide the necessary fuel needed for a climactic bottom
2008-10-16 20:09:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just like last Friday, but one degree higher
2008-10-16 20:10:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...with everything moving the way it is right now
2008-10-16 20:10:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would only help to serve with some sort of angst going into the election
2008-10-16 20:10:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: lots of tangents here
2008-10-16 20:10:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and trying to find the best road is a bit difficult
2008-10-16 20:11:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but that's another option considering everything we know right now
2008-10-16 20:11:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what we do know is this
2008-10-16 20:11:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's highly unlikely that we have seen a tradable bottom
2008-10-16 20:11:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we don't have all of the necessary divergences needed after such a crash
2008-10-16 20:12:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no less...what Elliott is suggesting within this total context
2008-10-16 20:12:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so just be ready for anything
2008-10-16 20:12:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: moving to the composite NYSE breadth MCO
2008-10-16 20:13:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here we had a slight breakout above the short term declining tops line
2008-10-16 20:13:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: snapped back to this line yesterday, and went on to make higher highs
2008-10-16 20:14:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: our near term resistance remains with the double top area of last September/early October
2008-10-16 20:14:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no less, the zero line
2008-10-16 20:14:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, if anything, we have relieved much of the imbalance that we saw in the market last Friday
2008-10-16 20:14:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this now allows a "new direction" to be created
2008-10-16 20:14:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not being of down to up
2008-10-16 20:14:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but a new segment within this larger imbalance
2008-10-16 20:15:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: people just don't stop their panic
2008-10-16 20:15:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it numbs them
2008-10-16 20:15:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: more of a "enough is enough" reflex caused by this same imbalance
2008-10-16 20:15:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and this would be fully consistent to the current count we've been discussing
2008-10-16 20:16:04 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: What about the MCSUM being at -1500?
2008-10-16 20:16:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's grossly "oversold"
2008-10-16 20:16:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that's all
2008-10-16 20:16:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and due to turn higher
2008-10-16 20:16:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: eventually
2008-10-16 20:16:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe tomorrow
2008-10-16 20:17:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but more probable would be sometime next week
2008-10-16 20:17:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: might be in the beginning...might be in the end
2008-10-16 20:17:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but the market is trashed here
2008-10-16 20:17:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: although, that doesn't mean that we're finished kicking things around
2008-10-16 20:18:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the imploding building analogy works the best
2008-10-16 20:18:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's not standing any more, but there might be some framework that didn't fall that still needs to be toppled...once you're able to see through the dust and dirt
2008-10-16 20:19:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in other words...we still don't really know what were working with to move forward
2008-10-16 20:19:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we're only seeing the direct result of the implosion
2008-10-16 20:19:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's going to take time to do this
2008-10-16 20:20:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NASDAQ breadth MCO also moved higher today
2008-10-16 20:20:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but is now at its declining tops line
2008-10-16 20:20:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you'll note that we made a new closing lows yesterday on the COMPX
2008-10-16 20:21:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which seemed to be lost in yesterdays sell off
2008-10-16 20:21:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: same kind of situation with the NDX data
2008-10-16 20:22:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: with the SPX breadth MCO still not able to move above its declining tops line
2008-10-16 20:22:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all this means is that until this line is violated, the market remains heavy...and vulnerable
2008-10-16 20:25:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the OEX breadth MCO is showing about the same situation...though a bit weaker than the 500
2008-10-16 20:25:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the Dow is about the same as the OEX
2008-10-16 20:25:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MID breadth MCO did break above its accelerated declining tops line today
2008-10-16 20:26:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but still has a lot of resistance still be challenged
2008-10-16 20:26:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looking ahead for a moment
2008-10-16 20:26:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the low points on the MCO we see from yesterday will later on come into play as we move along
2008-10-16 20:26:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: these will be our reaction lows
2008-10-16 20:27:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you know...for every action there is an equal and opposite reaction...
2008-10-16 20:27:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: same kind of situation with the SML breadth MCO
2008-10-16 20:28:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and interestingly enough, the Total Market breadth MCO did, indeed, move above this important line of negative influence
2008-10-16 20:29:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if anything then, this would suggest that we are closer to the end of this move than we are to the beginning (duh)
2008-10-16 20:29:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's look at the sectors
2008-10-16 20:30:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the XLY is now challenging its declining tops line on the breadth MCO
2008-10-16 20:30:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the XLY breadth MCSUM is still supporting a potential divergent intermediate term structure
2008-10-16 20:31:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the XLP breadth MCSUM has broken below its rising bottoms line yesterday
2008-10-16 20:31:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so even the defensive end of the marketplace is heavy right now
2008-10-16 20:32:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: wow...the XLE price pattern has lost over 50% of its value now
2008-10-16 20:33:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and like the rest of the market, the XLE breadth MCSUM is grossly "oversold" now with a reading of -1685
2008-10-16 20:33:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no sense in buying's going to take some time to rebuild
2008-10-16 20:34:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the XLF breadth MCSUM continues to build bull divergence
2008-10-16 20:34:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as was the expectation now for many months
2008-10-16 20:34:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: price pattern wise
2008-10-16 20:35:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have broken below the July lows, and snapped back to this same line with Tuesday's highs
2008-10-16 20:35:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so it's decision time for this sector
2008-10-16 20:36:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: boy...the XLF decline sure resembles the SPX 2000/2002 decline, doesn't it?
2008-10-16 20:36:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you can see it better on the 3 year chart
2008-10-16 20:37:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the problem now is that this last MCO extreme reading really did a lot of damage to the structure of this sector
2008-10-16 20:37:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: don't know what to think...for now
2008-10-16 20:38:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the XLI data looks terrible here
2008-10-16 20:38:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sure glad it tipped us off before we crashed
2008-10-16 20:38:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this market trashed!
2008-10-16 20:39:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and very "oversold"
2008-10-16 20:39:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: maybe too "oversold"?
2008-10-16 20:39:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: tell you one thing...I wouldn't be shopping for anything now
2008-10-16 20:39:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: way too early
2008-10-16 20:40:22 [Message] dave -> Main Room: hi dave, sorry to be late, moved offices.... that "b" of the triangle gave me a heart attack
2008-10-16 20:40:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...the good news is's about as hostile a market right now than it has in years
2008-10-16 20:40:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: lol
2008-10-16 20:40:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it retraced .763
2008-10-16 20:41:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now in "c"
2008-10-16 20:41:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: should finish in the morning
2008-10-16 20:41:12 [Message] dave -> Main Room: 918 covered shorts, went long and watched it drop 55 more points
2008-10-16 20:41:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: alternate wave (ii) of (v)
2008-10-16 20:41:55 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i know you covered this earlier, getting a copy of it tonight, don't want you to repeat from earlier, just sorry i couldn't be here
2008-10-16 20:41:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you'll have to read the scripts...we spent an hour on it already
2008-10-16 20:42:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look at the crash on the XLU
2008-10-16 20:42:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: absolutely astounding
2008-10-16 20:42:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: those looking for income are going to shocked
2008-10-16 20:43:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway...nothing as yet suggests a tradable bottom
2008-10-16 20:43:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...speaking of those who trade with more than a month time frame...
2008-10-16 20:43:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: cash is king
2008-10-16 20:44:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: CVI's on the bearish side of neutral now
2008-10-16 20:45:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: STVO's continue to work off their highly "oversold" readings
2008-10-16 20:45:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the VTO's are scraping the floor
2008-10-16 20:46:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after a 5.17 reading yesterday, the NYSE TRIN came in with a .61 reading today
2008-10-16 20:46:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the Open 10 moved up to a 1.02 reading
2008-10-16 20:46:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as a reminder, it will be during 5th waves where we are likely to see our larger TRIN readings
2008-10-16 20:47:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and in this vein, with the high TRIN reading yesterday, along with moving below the .618 retracement level spoken about earlier, this leaves the door open that we are already in Minute wave 5
2008-10-16 20:47:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: though I find it hard to accept this with OPEX tomorrow...but who am I?
2008-10-16 20:48:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after a 5.96 reading yesterday, the NASDAQ TRIN closed at .31 today
2008-10-16 20:48:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: too much...too fast
2008-10-16 20:48:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: short covering
2008-10-16 20:48:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.16
2008-10-16 20:49:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and diverging
2008-10-16 20:49:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look at the 21 and 55 sma's of the TRINQ
2008-10-16 20:49:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: whew!
2008-10-16 20:50:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and after a 5.87 reading yesterday, the TM TRIN is at .37
2008-10-16 20:50:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.11
2008-10-16 20:50:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...with the very low TRIN's today, this would fit with either the wave "c" wave idea OR wave (ii) of (V)
2008-10-16 20:51:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: too much excitement with no platform
2008-10-16 20:51:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what else...we have 10 minutes
2008-10-16 20:52:20 [Message] lew -> Main Room: You have the hot hand, do you favor C, or ii?
2008-10-16 20:52:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: check out yesterday's AAII -
2008-10-16 20:52:32 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Still thinking 724 or less?
2008-10-16 20:52:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: only the market knows for sure
2008-10-16 20:52:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what we do know is
2008-10-16 20:53:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if we break above these Fib targets, something else is going on
2008-10-16 20:53:25 [Message] dave -> Main Room: hmmm wave ii instead of triangle, was thinking that as a possibility
2008-10-16 20:53:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: until the objectives are met, or canceled, 724 is still beckoning
2008-10-16 20:53:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it would be canceled on a fill of the measuring gap
2008-10-16 20:53:56 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Those fib targets not much higher from here
2008-10-16 20:54:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: allows for a 5th wave extension on the 5 minute chart
2008-10-16 20:54:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so a higher open...and then we see what's going to happen
2008-10-16 20:54:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if this is a small wave (ii), it would be confirmed by a break below this mornings lows in quick fashion
2008-10-16 20:55:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if it holds...all is well with Mr. Triangle
2008-10-16 20:55:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, in essence, we have a plan here
2008-10-16 20:55:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all we need to see is how the market executes
2008-10-16 20:55:28 [Message] dave -> Main Room: right, see it clear
2008-10-16 20:55:32 [Message] whipsaw101 -> Main Room: 9 month low due Oct 22?
2008-10-16 20:55:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: heck if I know lol
2008-10-16 20:55:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: furthest thing from my mind
2008-10-16 20:56:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I don't think we'll know the condition of the 9 month cycle until sometime next year
2008-10-16 20:57:07 [Message] whipsaw101 -> Main Room: yes almost seems moot in current environment
2008-10-16 20:57:34 [Message] dave -> Main Room: do we have to wait for todays low to get taken out? or is there a retracement lets say of 80% invalidate the triangle
2008-10-16 20:57:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what we do know, cyclically, is that we have a whole new kettle of fish to work with
2008-10-16 20:58:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in the strictest Elliott sense, this would change the count
2008-10-16 20:58:27 [Message] dave -> Main Room: what retracement is the limit for the triangle to still be valid?
2008-10-16 20:58:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if you see something that would give you a tip off of such an occurrence (like breadth plurality) use your best judgment
2008-10-16 20:58:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just don't chase
2008-10-16 20:58:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would like to repeat
2008-10-16 20:59:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in crashes you'll find it easier to trade if you keep things as simple as possible
2008-10-16 20:59:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: because of the volatility, many indicators will lag
2008-10-16 20:59:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: speaking of which
2008-10-16 20:59:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: did you guys watch todays open?
2008-10-16 20:59:34 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: any explanation for such big daily ranges?
2008-10-16 20:59:41 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yeah
2008-10-16 20:59:42 [Message] dave -> Main Room: was nuts
2008-10-16 20:59:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: up 50, down 50, up 40, down 20 - in a blink of an eye!
2008-10-16 20:59:56 [Message] dave -> Main Room: ALL DAY!!!!
2008-10-16 20:59:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: crashes are like that
2008-10-16 21:00:15 [Message] dave -> Main Room: today was the toughest trading environment of my career,
2008-10-16 21:00:22 [Message] geosing -> Main Room: Yes, I am working with 200 point stops
2008-10-16 21:00:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the ranges will start to reduce once the entire 3rd wave structure is behind us
2008-10-16 21:00:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but will pick up again when we move into Intermediate (5) later on
2008-10-16 21:00:44 [Message] dave -> Main Room: made money but almost had skid marks when the retracement went that far
2008-10-16 21:01:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...the price objectives were only guidelines, we have to look at other areas to look for a turn when these guidelines are fulfilled
2008-10-16 21:01:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it sounds like you tried to get cute
2008-10-16 21:01:23 [Message] dave -> Main Room: i know, i was looking at 896 max
2008-10-16 21:01:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and the market bit you on the arse
2008-10-16 21:01:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's very important right now to let the market tell you what to do
2008-10-16 21:02:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's a bit on the psychotic side
2008-10-16 21:02:02 [Message] dave -> Main Room: nope, bit me in the skid marks, but i held through and bought more on the rally, sold the A and went long the B
2008-10-16 21:02:19 [Message] dave -> Main Room: sold the close and sold the rest at 7:34 pm eastern
2008-10-16 21:02:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: glad to hear that you didn't lose your pants altogether
2008-10-16 21:02:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: excellent day
2008-10-16 21:02:32 [Message] dave -> Main Room: yep
2008-10-16 21:02:36 [Message] dave -> Main Room: but stresssssssssful
2008-10-16 21:02:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and to think...many very good traders are standing aside here because there's no real rhythm to work with
2008-10-16 21:03:02 [Message] dave -> Main Room: was a perfect plan discussed on Tuesday night, only kink was the bigger retracement
2008-10-16 21:03:17 [Message] dave -> Main Room: the wave talk in here on Tuesday, and from what i heard this evening, was awesome and super helpful
2008-10-16 21:03:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but you came out OK...and that's what counts
2008-10-16 21:03:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: live and learn
2008-10-16 21:03:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good to hear - glad it was beneficial to you and others
2008-10-16 21:03:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...I'm going to take off
2008-10-16 21:03:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyone have a great weekend
2008-10-16 21:03:54 [Message] lew -> Main Room: THX!
2008-10-16 21:03:59 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: thanks
2008-10-16 21:03:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we'll chat again on Tuesday
2008-10-16 21:04:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good night

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