All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.


PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at
http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm




Support Technical Watch!
Buy from our Book Store!
Register Calendar Latest Topics
 
 
 


Reply
  Author   Comment  
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,456
Reply with quote  #1 
2015-10-15 15:59:55 fib1618: and a pleasant good day to you all
2015-10-15 16:00:02 fib1618: how is everyone?
2015-10-15 16:00:22 tuna: Hello, great thanks
2015-10-15 16:00:25 thespookyone: I hate to say, want to avoid any jinx [smile]
2015-10-15 16:00:30 fib1618: lol
2015-10-15 16:00:46 thespookyone: This is a fantastic traders market
2015-10-15 16:00:53 fib1618: yeppers
2015-10-15 16:01:16 fib1618: especially when you get it right
2015-10-15 16:01:26 fib1618: condolences Mike (and John) on the Astros...sorry
2015-10-15 16:01:29 thespookyone: Yep!
2015-10-15 16:02:02 tuna: last quarter looks like it will be interesting
2015-10-15 16:03:04 fib1618: could be
2015-10-15 16:03:28 fib1618: the market is still highly volatile...don't see it calming down as yet
2015-10-15 16:03:46 tuna: barely 38% retrace
2015-10-15 16:03:57 fib1618: daily...spx?
2015-10-15 16:04:05 tuna: RUT
2015-10-15 16:04:18 fib1618: yea...but that's been the weak link for a while
2015-10-15 16:04:20 fib1618: though on Tuesday
2015-10-15 16:04:24 fib1618: it was the strongest
2015-10-15 16:05:19 fib1618: and also remember
2015-10-15 16:05:31 fib1618: that the SML had the largest gain of any market index last week of 5.05%
2015-10-15 16:05:46 fib1618: we'll pick things apart in a moment
2015-10-15 16:05:59 fib1618: any other comments or questions before we get started??
2015-10-15 16:07:19 fib1618: OK..then let me get SC up and we'll see how things are looking today
2015-10-15 16:07:48 fib1618: after seeing our pullback continue on Wednesday as the outside range day suggested
2015-10-15 16:08:01 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO moved sharply higher today
2015-10-15 16:08:29 fib1618: moving back to just slightly above snapback natural resistance at the +53 level
2015-10-15 16:09:13 fib1618: today's push higher by the buyers also allowed the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM back above its zero line for the first time since early June
2015-10-15 16:09:21 fib1618: as we have talked about many times before
2015-10-15 16:09:39 fib1618: when working with this intermediate term oscillator
2015-10-15 16:10:06 fib1618: we usually see extended times either above or below the zero line to provide balance over the year
2015-10-15 16:10:27 fib1618: so with this MCSUM being below zero for 4 months
2015-10-15 16:11:04 fib1618: it's probably a good bet that will make it back above the zero line, and stay there, for the same amount of time to provide this same balance
2015-10-15 16:11:34 fib1618: all we need now for confirmation of this would be upside follow through on Friday
2015-10-15 16:11:43 fib1618: and then a move back above the +250 level
2015-10-15 16:11:57 fib1618: looking at the NYA price chart
2015-10-15 16:12:32 fib1618: and we see that we successfully found snapback support today
2015-10-15 16:12:44 fib1618: and then closed above the last 4 days of price settlement
2015-10-15 16:13:14 fib1618: as was the case on Tuesday with the pattern closing below the previous 3 days of closes
2015-10-15 16:13:29 fib1618: this now indicates that the buyers are back in control of the action on a near term basis
2015-10-15 16:13:56 fib1618: and that we should see prices extend higher from this juncture to around our initial target of 10,800
2015-10-15 16:14:28 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2015-10-15 16:14:51 fib1618: and here we see that the broader market had better strength than the CO data
2015-10-15 16:15:03 fib1618: where it didn't move back below the +25 level
2015-10-15 16:15:31 fib1618: compared to the CO MCO which bottomed out at +20
2015-10-15 16:16:10 fib1618: looking at the 21 day close up chart of the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM
2015-10-15 16:16:43 fib1618: and we can see that we had good gap expansion to the upside with today's 1.45% gain in the NYA index
2015-10-15 16:17:06 fib1618: and leaving us with a pattern of a bottom above a bottom above a bottom intact
2015-10-15 16:17:22 fib1618: so as long as this short term trend of bottoms remains
2015-10-15 16:17:30 fib1618: prices will continue to rally higher
2015-10-15 16:17:55 rite01: it's this type of information that's well worth the admission  ....
2015-10-15 16:17:56 fib1618: and pullbacks are points of near term buying ops for this specific index
2015-10-15 16:18:05 fib1618: [smile]
2015-10-15 16:18:12 fib1618: that's why we use the tools that we do
2015-10-15 16:18:27 fib1618: they provide information not found by any other indicator
2015-10-15 16:18:32 fib1618: the reason being
2015-10-15 16:18:33 fib1618: is that
2015-10-15 16:18:44 fib1618: we are directly measuring the underlying trend of money flow
2015-10-15 16:18:54 fib1618: both on a short term and intermediate term basis
2015-10-15 16:19:13 fib1618: and it's same money flow that leads the direction of price
2015-10-15 16:19:21 fib1618: no voodoo here
2015-10-15 16:19:23 fib1618: no guessing
2015-10-15 16:19:33 fib1618: no high fives
2015-10-15 16:19:48 fib1618: only consistency...with a bit of discipline
2015-10-15 16:20:07 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2015-10-15 16:20:17 fib1618: and here too we got our technical bounce today
2015-10-15 16:20:20 rite01: Right just glad you and spooky are reading the tea leaves....
2015-10-15 16:20:35 fib1618: well...you're doing the same thing
2015-10-15 16:20:40 fib1618: you just fully realize it as yet
2015-10-15 16:20:41 fib1618: [smile]
2015-10-15 16:20:52 rite01: Yes but learning even more ever session....
2015-10-15 16:21:11 fib1618: that's what we do here...everyday we learn
2015-10-15 16:21:18 fib1618: no egos
2015-10-15 16:21:28 fib1618: as the market will slap you silly if you have one
2015-10-15 16:21:44 rite01: don't I know it
2015-10-15 16:21:52 fib1618: back to the NASDAQ
2015-10-15 16:22:04 fib1618: and the move today in the MCO was a sharp one to the upside
2015-10-15 16:22:14 fib1618: after bottoming out on Wednesday at a +8
2015-10-15 16:22:58 fib1618: note also how the 10% Trend found support right at the 5% Trend today
2015-10-15 16:23:25 fib1618: and both moved back above their zero lines providing us with renewed crossover buy signal
2015-10-15 16:23:38 fib1618: and with it
2015-10-15 16:24:00 fib1618: we now have a continuation of good gap expansion to the upside in the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2015-10-15 16:24:34 fib1618: with prices closing above the intraday reversal highs of Tuesday
2015-10-15 16:24:42 fib1618: so a strong statement by the bulls today
2015-10-15 16:24:49 fib1618: as we had hoped would happen on Tuesday
2015-10-15 16:25:31 fib1618: the NDX breadth MCO also moved back above the +56 level today
2015-10-15 16:25:34 fib1618: and with it
2015-10-15 16:25:51 fib1618: we now have a confirmed breakout back above the NDX breadth MCSUM zero line
2015-10-15 16:26:24 fib1618: showing us that the buyers are, once again, solidly in control of the action
2015-10-15 16:27:01 fib1618: next area of pattern resistance lies at around the +300/+400 level
2015-10-15 16:27:28 fib1618: so a move above +250 seems likely in helping in breaking the back of the corrective sequence seen in the summer
2015-10-15 16:28:03 fib1618: new recovery price highs today in the SPX
2015-10-15 16:28:22 fib1618: with the SPX breadth MCO settling the day at the +50 resistance level
2015-10-15 16:28:47 fib1618: note also how the 10% Trend found component support just above the 5% Trend
2015-10-15 16:29:06 fib1618: this then shows us that the trend of money flow going into the SPX remains on the robust side
2015-10-15 16:29:16 fib1618: and that last week's strong reversal has legs from which to stand
2015-10-15 16:29:53 fib1618: note also how the SPX breadth MCSUM has now cleared above the important mid August high
2015-10-15 16:30:35 fib1618: this is important because this was the point in which the buyers exhausted themselves to such a degree that a crash like event took place right after this point of capitulation
2015-10-15 16:30:42 fib1618: in essence
2015-10-15 16:30:51 fib1618: this now slams the door shut of that corrective process
2015-10-15 16:31:18 fib1618: and any move above the May highs in this MCSUM would then clear the way for a challenge of the all time highs
2015-10-15 16:31:29 fib1618: note also
2015-10-15 16:31:43 fib1618: that we closed near the highs of the day
2015-10-15 16:32:17 fib1618: and that then suggests that those who were holding longs going into the mid September reversal
2015-10-15 16:33:16 fib1618: are now out of the way and probably watching on the sidelines as to not get "fooled again"
2015-10-15 16:33:18 fib1618: but they are
2015-10-15 16:33:45 fib1618: this is why we had a buy stop just above the reversal point of Tuesday
2015-10-15 16:34:08 fib1618: as it would take better conviction than that of mid September to move to new highs
2015-10-15 16:34:13 fib1618: and we got that today
2015-10-15 16:34:44 fib1618: looks like we're likely to see a nice follow through day to the upside on Friday
2015-10-15 16:34:51 fib1618: oh
2015-10-15 16:35:00 fib1618: and "coincidentally"
2015-10-15 16:35:03 fib1618: it's OPEX
2015-10-15 16:35:20 fib1618: where all the speculative puts will expire worthless
2015-10-15 16:35:41 thespookyone: how "unusual" LOL
2015-10-15 16:35:44 fib1618: and that should further lift prices higher
2015-10-15 16:35:59 fib1618: every month the same darn thing happens
2015-10-15 16:36:07 thespookyone: yes sir
2015-10-15 16:36:28 fib1618: it still amazes me to this day on how the specs continue to punish themselves by buying near term options so that they think they will make a killing
2015-10-15 16:36:37 fib1618: and all they get is disappointment
2015-10-15 16:36:45 fib1618: deep pockets only go so far
2015-10-15 16:36:56 fib1618: before you find the hole at the bottom of the pocket
2015-10-15 16:37:01 thespookyone: my room bought calls on the drop this morning, smelled a bear trap
2015-10-15 16:37:24 fib1618: oh...when the market pulled back mid morning?
2015-10-15 16:37:29 thespookyone: yep
2015-10-15 16:37:35 rite01: Good trading spooky
2015-10-15 16:37:36 thespookyone: GS and CELG
2015-10-15 16:37:40 thespookyone: calls
2015-10-15 16:37:40 fib1618: took gonads to do that
2015-10-15 16:37:43 thespookyone: thx
2015-10-15 16:37:54 fib1618: glad it worked out
2015-10-15 16:38:12 fib1618: pretty much the same situation with the OEX data
2015-10-15 16:38:22 thespookyone: like you said, it seems to be playing that way into opex...
2015-10-15 16:38:30 fib1618: both with the MCO bouncing higher
2015-10-15 16:39:00 fib1618: and the MCSUM moving above the July highs
2015-10-15 16:39:27 fib1618: the Dow breadth MCO amazingly bounced right off the +50 level today
2015-10-15 16:39:48 fib1618: and reached the +81 level
2015-10-15 16:39:49 fib1618: and with it
2015-10-15 16:40:12 fib1618: the Dow breadth MCSUM moved above its March highs
2015-10-15 16:40:31 fib1618: so that opens the door for a challenge of the all time price highs on this particular sequence
2015-10-15 16:40:40 fib1618: let me expand the time axis for a moment
2015-10-15 16:40:51 thespookyone: There are a lot of summations at 0, 250, 500, etc. - if they all break through tomorrow, it could be pretty nice
2015-10-15 16:41:23 fib1618: next resistance there are the ledge highs around +1200
2015-10-15 16:41:31 fib1618: yep
2015-10-15 16:41:59 fib1618: and would be consistent in identifying an "one for all, all for one" trend development
2015-10-15 16:42:35 fib1618: the MID breadth MCO found support near the zero line today
2015-10-15 16:42:41 fib1618: and bounced sharply higher with a reading of +38
2015-10-15 16:44:04 fib1618: and this has helped push the MID breadth MCSUM to challenge its June highs
2015-10-15 16:44:28 fib1618: as with most of these levels of resistance
2015-10-15 16:44:46 fib1618: we usually see the market burst above such areas with conviction
2015-10-15 16:45:28 fib1618: so here's another piece of the puzzle suggesting that Friday could be a nice up day
2015-10-15 16:45:41 fib1618: one of the things that will confuse many technicians here
2015-10-15 16:45:51 fib1618: and I don't know really if you're seeing this as yet
2015-10-15 16:46:08 fib1618: but there will be many who will claim that we're too "overbought" to continue higher from these levels
2015-10-15 16:46:36 fib1618: but they would be incorrect because the flow of capital is moving in to support these same "overbought" numbers
2015-10-15 16:46:46 fib1618: if, on the other hand, money was moving out
2015-10-15 16:46:52 fib1618: as it was in early August
2015-10-15 16:47:01 fib1618: then "overbought" readings would be dangerous
2015-10-15 16:47:30 fib1618: but now...we can again remain "overbought" for a longer period of time than those who try to force the issue lower
2015-10-15 16:47:53 fib1618: it's all about being flexible in your analysis
2015-10-15 16:48:07 fib1618: and never thinking that your tools don't know any better than you do
2015-10-15 16:48:13 fib1618: if money is moving in
2015-10-15 16:48:26 fib1618: it's "oversold" levels that help pinpoint buy points
2015-10-15 16:48:31 fib1618: if money is moving out
2015-10-15 16:48:48 fib1618: it's "overbought" levels that help pinpoint sell points
2015-10-15 16:48:56 fib1618: keep it simple
2015-10-15 16:49:31 fib1618: if it's not a "reasonable expectation" given the information provided
2015-10-15 16:49:38 fib1618: then it probably isn't
2015-10-15 16:49:50 rite01: I think I'm seeing it.. thanks
2015-10-15 16:50:06 fib1618: not only do you have to see it
2015-10-15 16:50:18 fib1618: you MUST believe in what you're seeing
2015-10-15 16:50:29 fib1618: this is all math
2015-10-15 16:50:33 fib1618: physics
2015-10-15 16:50:43 rite01: and experience does not hurt
2015-10-15 16:50:44 fib1618: and you can't change it
2015-10-15 16:50:48 fib1618: well...it helps
2015-10-15 16:50:55 fib1618: but you have to start somewhere
2015-10-15 16:51:04 rite01: That what's really getting my attention
2015-10-15 16:51:16 fib1618: and be sure your starting blocks are in proper alignment for you to run the race
2015-10-15 16:51:28 fib1618: by this time
2015-10-15 16:51:38 fib1618: you have seen the consistency in what we chat about
2015-10-15 16:51:44 fib1618: there's no guessing here
2015-10-15 16:52:15 fib1618: but there are times in which the probability to outcome ratio isn't as clear as we want it to be
2015-10-15 16:52:22 fib1618: and for those days
2015-10-15 16:52:25 fib1618: we stand aside
2015-10-15 16:52:30 fib1618: and wait for more information
2015-10-15 16:52:42 fib1618: just like everything else in life
2015-10-15 16:52:59 fib1618: nothing provides day to day clarity
2015-10-15 16:53:10 fib1618: same thing here
2015-10-15 16:53:57 rite01: thanks again
2015-10-15 16:54:14 fib1618: those who like to show their plumage in how good they are at this
2015-10-15 16:54:26 fib1618: eventually get plucked
2015-10-15 16:54:38 fib1618: no thanks needed
2015-10-15 16:54:42 fib1618: just make money
2015-10-15 16:55:06 fib1618: (and tell your friends)
2015-10-15 16:55:14 fib1618: OK...back to work
2015-10-15 16:55:45 fib1618: notice that the SML breadth MCSUM is now back above its zero line now
2015-10-15 16:55:54 fib1618: and as we have talked about before with regard to the MCSUM
2015-10-15 16:56:01 fib1618: the closer it gets to the zero line
2015-10-15 16:56:06 fib1618: after being at an extreme
2015-10-15 16:56:32 fib1618: the better chance prices have in moving in this new direction
2015-10-15 16:56:35 fib1618: last week
2015-10-15 16:56:43 fib1618: the SML was up an astounding 5.05%
2015-10-15 16:56:55 fib1618: we have an outside range day today
2015-10-15 16:57:07 fib1618: which suggests a higher close on Friday
2015-10-15 16:57:22 fib1618: and with the MCSUM moving back from negative to positive control
2015-10-15 16:57:49 fib1618: tomorrow has a good chance in seeing this index match what the other indices did today
2015-10-15 16:58:04 fib1618: and closing above the mid September reversal highs
2015-10-15 16:58:25 fib1618: with any move above the mid July peak in the SML breadth MCSUM
2015-10-15 16:58:49 fib1618: allowing prices to challenge these same highs around 725
2015-10-15 16:59:32 fib1618: and that's another 6% gain from here
2015-10-15 16:59:50 fib1618: and if we believe in the idea of price pattern equality
2015-10-15 16:59:55 fib1618: would also match last week's advance
2015-10-15 17:00:03 fib1618: anyway
2015-10-15 17:00:20 fib1618: as we touched upon with last weekend's breadth review
2015-10-15 17:00:33 fib1618: the rest of October continues to looks like a good one for the bulls
2015-10-15 17:00:58 fib1618: while the majority continues to be cautious because...well...it's October
2015-10-15 17:01:05 fib1618: and once they realize that they missed out
2015-10-15 17:01:08 fib1618: we'll top
2015-10-15 17:01:19 fib1618: happens over and over and over again
2015-10-15 17:01:28 fib1618: and very few learn their lessons
2015-10-15 17:01:31 fib1618: because
2015-10-15 17:01:45 fib1618: they don't think it can happen again...the market isn't that "orderly"
2015-10-15 17:01:48 fib1618: but it really is
2015-10-15 17:02:25 fib1618: and the TM breadth MCO also moved higher today
2015-10-15 17:02:40 fib1618: and above the late June highs
2015-10-15 17:02:42 fib1618: but...
2015-10-15 17:02:50 fib1618: still below the TM breadth MCSUM zero line
2015-10-15 17:02:59 fib1618: notice also
2015-10-15 17:03:10 fib1618: how the 5% component found zero line support today
2015-10-15 17:03:25 fib1618: it's these kinds of "whispers" that help define whether we have a trend or not
2015-10-15 17:03:47 fib1618: so we'll probably see the TM breadth MCSUM move back above its zero line next week
2015-10-15 17:03:50 fib1618: so...
2015-10-15 17:04:01 fib1618: the last two days were good character day for the buyers
2015-10-15 17:04:27 fib1618: showing that last weeks reversal rally has some legs here to extend even further
2015-10-15 17:04:49 fib1618: and as long as we remain with bottoms above bottoms in the breadth MCO's
2015-10-15 17:04:57 fib1618: the path of least resistance remains to the upside
2015-10-15 17:05:12 fib1618: let's see how the sectors are doing
2015-10-15 17:05:36 fib1618: we see that we had a nice zero line bounce today in the XLY breadth MCO
2015-10-15 17:06:06 fib1618: with both the 10% and 5% components also providing support
2015-10-15 17:06:36 fib1618: this should now help us to close the MCSUM gap resistance points we see on the chart
2015-10-15 17:06:56 fib1618: the first of which is before the zero line
2015-10-15 17:07:02 fib1618: the second one just above it
2015-10-15 17:07:50 fib1618: so it's going to take quite a bit of strength to not only break above these gaps, but also the zero line simultaneously
2015-10-15 17:08:29 fib1618: so it's very likely to be an exciting couple of days coming up for this basket of issues
2015-10-15 17:09:21 fib1618: inside range day on the XLP suggesting an up close on Friday
2015-10-15 17:09:37 fib1618: and the XLP breadth MCSUM has now reached our objective from last week of +1000
2015-10-15 17:09:51 fib1618: well...+962...close enough for now
2015-10-15 17:10:16 rite01: So inside and outside would give the same signal?
2015-10-15 17:10:17 fib1618: just on a cursory basis
2015-10-15 17:10:30 fib1618: you can see how money continues to pour into this basket of issues
2015-10-15 17:10:48 fib1618: inside, outside, and mid range days all do the same trick
2015-10-15 17:10:56 rite01: OK
2015-10-15 17:11:23 fib1618: remember that there is a tutorial available on this under the "technically speaking" area of the message board
2015-10-15 17:11:53 fib1618: so this ETF remains one of the bulls favorites
2015-10-15 17:12:12 fib1618: has been of a little over a month now
2015-10-15 17:12:36 fib1618: good support continues with the XLE breadth MCO
2015-10-15 17:12:48 fib1618: and we're now about to move back above the XLE breadth MCSUM zero line
2015-10-15 17:13:05 fib1618: with control moving back to the buy side on an intermediate term basis
2015-10-15 17:13:13 fib1618: looking at the price structure
2015-10-15 17:13:41 fib1618: and a strong break above the $70.00 level is probable
2015-10-15 17:13:45 fib1618: let me check the SAR
2015-10-15 17:14:07 thespookyone: I love mid 72's here, very quickly, fwiw
2015-10-15 17:14:19 fib1618: still on a buy signal on the SAR
2015-10-15 17:14:30 fib1618: sell stop at $63.56
2015-10-15 17:14:41 fib1618: the 20 day EMA is about to move up and through the 50 day EMA
2015-10-15 17:15:03 fib1618: and the 200 day EMA is at $72.67
2015-10-15 17:15:13 fib1618: so there's your target Lew
2015-10-15 17:15:21 thespookyone: yep, thx
2015-10-15 17:15:21 rite01: thanks spooky
2015-10-15 17:15:35 fib1618: good accumulation in the index now
2015-10-15 17:15:44 fib1618: fill up your gas tanks
2015-10-15 17:16:01 fib1618: because prices are about as cheap as we'll see them for the rest of the year
2015-10-15 17:16:05 thespookyone: we have 70 calls for next week that we are in at 2 cents [smile]
2015-10-15 17:16:18 fib1618: betcha heating oil is about to go up quickly now
2015-10-15 17:16:27 fib1618: 2 cents?
2015-10-15 17:16:50 thespookyone: yep, and we bought 70.50's for next week early today for 3 cents
2015-10-15 17:16:51 fib1618: these are weeklies?
2015-10-15 17:16:58 thespookyone: next week
2015-10-15 17:17:05 fib1618: gawd
2015-10-15 17:17:11 thespookyone: 2 cents meaning of course 2 dollars
2015-10-15 17:17:15 fib1618: OK.
2015-10-15 17:17:20 fib1618: I thought so
2015-10-15 17:17:24 thespookyone: still....
2015-10-15 17:17:26 fib1618: 2 cents! lol
2015-10-15 17:17:35 fib1618: how can I get into that ?
2015-10-15 17:17:37 thespookyone: LOL
2015-10-15 17:17:37 fib1618: [smile]
2015-10-15 17:17:57 thespookyone: 2 dollars may look cheap next week too [smile]
2015-10-15 17:18:14 thespookyone: I'm shooting for $250
2015-10-15 17:18:33 fib1618: $74 looks doable after a quick hesitation at $72
2015-10-15 17:19:00 thespookyone: NICE!
2015-10-15 17:22:06 fib1618: moving to the XLF breadth MCO
2015-10-15 17:22:41 fib1618: and we see here that Wednesday's retracement took it well below the zero line
2015-10-15 17:22:57 fib1618: as we snapped back toward the zero line today
2015-10-15 17:23:03 fib1618: the problem here though
2015-10-15 17:23:23 fib1618: is that we took out the end September lows in this process
2015-10-15 17:23:52 fib1618: this then suggests that the buyers are going to have a problem reaching "escape velocity" on the XLF breadth MCSUM by moving above the +500 level
2015-10-15 17:24:06 fib1618: (at least initially)
2015-10-15 17:24:31 fib1618: where until this happens
2015-10-15 17:24:48 fib1618: it's not likely the prices will find any traction above the price highs of the last two months
2015-10-15 17:25:16 fib1618: so, I guess, the inability of prices moving above the top of this range is coming with a reason
2015-10-15 17:25:20 fib1618: more than likely
2015-10-15 17:25:29 fib1618: if interest rates are going to remain low...or go lower
2015-10-15 17:25:42 fib1618: banks are not likely to "capitalize" on this
2015-10-15 17:25:42 rite01: XLF vol MCO did not take out Sept low implying..
2015-10-15 17:27:49 fib1618: well...looking at the pattern
2015-10-15 17:28:00 fib1618: and how it plays with the XLF volume MCSUM
2015-10-15 17:28:28 fib1618: this suggests that the buyers are really trying to dig their heels in and keep prices from moving lower
2015-10-15 17:28:38 fib1618: being at the zero line on the MCSUM is the demarcation between who has control
2015-10-15 17:29:07 fib1618: so although breadth weakness was noted on a short term trending basis on Wednesday
2015-10-15 17:29:33 fib1618: the amount of money moving out of these issues was not as broad based
2015-10-15 17:29:39 fib1618: so...one idea
2015-10-15 17:29:41 fib1618: is that
2015-10-15 17:30:32 fib1618: money was moving out of this sector and seeking out another which was undervalued than this one
2015-10-15 17:30:55 fib1618: *more* undervalued
2015-10-15 17:30:58 fib1618: in any event
2015-10-15 17:31:14 fib1618: until we see renewed interest in this sector
2015-10-15 17:31:26 fib1618: best to step aside and work with those that are showing interest
2015-10-15 17:31:36 rite01: agreed
2015-10-15 17:31:40 fib1618: the one thing we don't want to do is nit pick
2015-10-15 17:31:52 fib1618: we want to see a path of least resistance
2015-10-15 17:31:58 rite01: OK got it
2015-10-15 17:32:15 fib1618: so though it would be nice to watch for a upside break in prices here
2015-10-15 17:32:24 fib1618: it's not clear on when this might take place
2015-10-15 17:32:30 fib1618: maybe not for another week
2015-10-15 17:32:35 fib1618: meanwhile
2015-10-15 17:32:54 fib1618: we don't want to miss out on opportunities in those areas that are showing good upside amplitude
2015-10-15 17:32:59 fib1618: the XLE, for example
2015-10-15 17:33:01 fib1618: the XLP, as another
2015-10-15 17:33:14 fib1618: there maybe more...let's check
2015-10-15 17:34:01 fib1618: the XLV breadth MCO continues to improve from last week
2015-10-15 17:34:36 fib1618: with prices closing at the highs of the day today
2015-10-15 17:35:11 fib1618: note here that we now have a bottom above a bottom constructed above the XLV breadth MCO zero line
2015-10-15 17:35:31 fib1618: so this underlying support should help buoy prices over the near term
2015-10-15 17:36:08 fib1618: the XLI breadth MCSUM is now at its zero line with a reading of -17
2015-10-15 17:36:34 fib1618: where we also have double top resistance from July and August
2015-10-15 17:36:54 fib1618: it should then be no surprise that any break above these levels
2015-10-15 17:37:18 fib1618: is going to allow the Dow Industrials and Transports to rally sharply on the cross
2015-10-15 17:37:47 fib1618: looking at the XLB breadth MCO
2015-10-15 17:38:04 fib1618: and here we are showing strong short term trending support currently
2015-10-15 17:38:23 fib1618: with a strong double bottom price pattern behind us
2015-10-15 17:38:33 fib1618: of which
2015-10-15 17:38:51 fib1618: we had hoped the rest of the market would do the same 2 weeks ago
2015-10-15 17:38:56 fib1618: but we get what we get
2015-10-15 17:39:30 fib1618: any move back above the XLB breadth MCSUM zero line should be good for a 10% gain in this index
2015-10-15 17:39:40 fib1618: so this one is worth watching
2015-10-15 17:40:25 fib1618: watch your EMA's on these chart structures as well
2015-10-15 17:40:48 fib1618: as they will help guide us as more and more buyer conviction returns to the market
2015-10-15 17:41:35 fib1618: the XLK breadth MCO showed good support at the +51 level today
2015-10-15 17:42:07 fib1618: and this higher amplitude of strength provided a nice upside gap today in the price pattern
2015-10-15 17:42:22 fib1618: ooooo...
2015-10-15 17:42:28 fib1618: look at the EMA's on the XLK
2015-10-15 17:42:52 fib1618: the 20 is at $40.77
2015-10-15 17:43:02 fib1618: the 50 is at $40.74
2015-10-15 17:43:12 fib1618: and the 200 is at $40.89
2015-10-15 17:43:19 fib1618: tighter than a snare drum
2015-10-15 17:43:32 fib1618: so a major price move here is imminent
2015-10-15 17:44:19 fib1618: longer term structure looks promising here
2015-10-15 17:44:38 fib1618: with an SAR stop at $40.78
2015-10-15 17:44:43 fib1618: talk about support!
2015-10-15 17:44:54 fib1618: think I might jump in on this one
2015-10-15 17:45:16 fib1618: note also that the XLK breadth MCSUM is at +461
2015-10-15 17:45:24 fib1618: so another good day on Friday
2015-10-15 17:45:36 fib1618: and up and through the +500 level we go
2015-10-15 17:46:08 fib1618: and the XLU remains strong underneath it all
2015-10-15 17:46:21 fib1618: and maybe we're finally getting a spark in the price action because of it
2015-10-15 17:46:55 fib1618: as we slowly continue toward our upside target from 3 or so weeks ago of around the $45 level
2015-10-15 17:47:16 fib1618: watch the XLU breadth MCSUM though as it negotiates the +1500 level
2015-10-15 17:47:37 fib1618: maybe better to not be too excited with this one...at least for now
2015-10-15 17:47:41 fib1618: so....
2015-10-15 17:47:56 fib1618: we're now seeing more and more evidence that a trend to the upside is underway
2015-10-15 17:48:15 fib1618: with targets in and around the all time highs on many of the price charts we cover here in the chat
2015-10-15 17:48:38 fib1618: the stronger indices/sectors will show their breadth MCSUM's above their zero lines
2015-10-15 17:48:58 fib1618: with those that haven't reached these levels about to join the party
2015-10-15 17:49:09 fib1618: let's see how the OBV's are
2015-10-15 17:49:49 fib1618: CVI's finding near zero line support
2015-10-15 17:49:53 fib1618: constructive
2015-10-15 17:50:13 fib1618: the STVO's continue to unwind their "overbought" levels from last week
2015-10-15 17:50:25 fib1618: so it looks like we're starting to "correct on the fly" again
2015-10-15 17:50:38 fib1618: VTO's are positive...with the Dow VTO now "overbought"
2015-10-15 17:51:16 fib1618: looks more and more of a double bottom now
2015-10-15 17:51:34 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 1.09
2015-10-15 17:51:42 fib1618: Open 10 at .88
2015-10-15 17:51:46 fib1618: now neutral
2015-10-15 17:52:02 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.20
2015-10-15 17:52:11 fib1618: Open 10 at .82
2015-10-15 17:52:27 fib1618: and backing off from Wednesday's "overbought" readings
2015-10-15 17:52:40 fib1618: TM TRIN at 1.10
2015-10-15 17:52:48 fib1618: Open 10 at .87
2015-10-15 17:53:03 fib1618: so a bit on the neutral side as well
2015-10-15 17:53:07 fib1618: so...
2015-10-15 17:53:38 fib1618: it would appear that we saw continued support by the buyers after last week's breadth and volume thrusts
2015-10-15 17:54:10 fib1618: and this should allow many prices to challenge their high points of May and June over the next couple of weeks
2015-10-15 17:54:20 fib1618: let me check the BETS
2015-10-15 17:54:35 fib1618: hopefully we'll get additional improvement there
2015-10-15 17:55:11 rite01: we should
2015-10-15 17:55:47 fib1618: -15
2015-10-15 17:55:50 fib1618: but
2015-10-15 17:56:02 fib1618: there is a marked improvement now in the cumulative charts
2015-10-15 17:56:16 fib1618: you'll see them this weekend...
2015-10-15 17:56:22 fib1618: we're close to being at zero for the BETS
2015-10-15 17:56:34 fib1618: if we get a sharp advance on Friday...it's going to be real close
2015-10-15 17:56:57 fib1618: anything else?
2015-10-15 17:57:06 rite01: join.me any word yet?
2015-10-15 17:57:24 fib1618: plenty of words
2015-10-15 17:57:31 fib1618: just haven't had the time
2015-10-15 17:57:35 rite01: :blush:
2015-10-15 17:57:48 rite01: understand when you do let me know
2015-10-15 17:57:51 fib1618: I will get to it as soon as I have the time to work it...I will let you know
2015-10-15 17:57:55 fib1618: yes
2015-10-15 17:58:22 rite01: I love being the guinea pig
2015-10-15 17:58:27 fib1618: me too
2015-10-15 17:58:31 fib1618: (I think)
2015-10-15 17:58:33 fib1618: [smile]
2015-10-15 17:59:02 fib1618: OK...I'm going to take off and see if we can get all blue teams in the championship series'
2015-10-15 17:59:16 rite01: Good luck on your teams
2015-10-15 17:59:16 fib1618: everyone have a fantastic weekend
2015-10-15 17:59:26 fib1618: and we'll see how things are shaking on Tuesday
2015-10-15 17:59:28 fib1618: good night
2015-10-15 17:59:32 rite01: Good night all!


__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

0
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:






Copyright 2000-2017 Technical Watch