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Posts: 4,423
Reply with quote  #1 
2015-10-15 15:59:55 fib1618: and a pleasant good day to you all
2015-10-15 16:00:02 fib1618: how is everyone?
2015-10-15 16:00:22 tuna: Hello, great thanks
2015-10-15 16:00:25 thespookyone: I hate to say, want to avoid any jinx [smile]
2015-10-15 16:00:30 fib1618: lol
2015-10-15 16:00:46 thespookyone: This is a fantastic traders market
2015-10-15 16:00:53 fib1618: yeppers
2015-10-15 16:01:16 fib1618: especially when you get it right
2015-10-15 16:01:26 fib1618: condolences Mike (and John) on the Astros...sorry
2015-10-15 16:01:29 thespookyone: Yep!
2015-10-15 16:02:02 tuna: last quarter looks like it will be interesting
2015-10-15 16:03:04 fib1618: could be
2015-10-15 16:03:28 fib1618: the market is still highly volatile...don't see it calming down as yet
2015-10-15 16:03:46 tuna: barely 38% retrace
2015-10-15 16:03:57 fib1618: daily...spx?
2015-10-15 16:04:05 tuna: RUT
2015-10-15 16:04:18 fib1618: yea...but that's been the weak link for a while
2015-10-15 16:04:20 fib1618: though on Tuesday
2015-10-15 16:04:24 fib1618: it was the strongest
2015-10-15 16:05:19 fib1618: and also remember
2015-10-15 16:05:31 fib1618: that the SML had the largest gain of any market index last week of 5.05%
2015-10-15 16:05:46 fib1618: we'll pick things apart in a moment
2015-10-15 16:05:59 fib1618: any other comments or questions before we get started??
2015-10-15 16:07:19 fib1618: OK..then let me get SC up and we'll see how things are looking today
2015-10-15 16:07:48 fib1618: after seeing our pullback continue on Wednesday as the outside range day suggested
2015-10-15 16:08:01 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO moved sharply higher today
2015-10-15 16:08:29 fib1618: moving back to just slightly above snapback natural resistance at the +53 level
2015-10-15 16:09:13 fib1618: today's push higher by the buyers also allowed the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM back above its zero line for the first time since early June
2015-10-15 16:09:21 fib1618: as we have talked about many times before
2015-10-15 16:09:39 fib1618: when working with this intermediate term oscillator
2015-10-15 16:10:06 fib1618: we usually see extended times either above or below the zero line to provide balance over the year
2015-10-15 16:10:27 fib1618: so with this MCSUM being below zero for 4 months
2015-10-15 16:11:04 fib1618: it's probably a good bet that will make it back above the zero line, and stay there, for the same amount of time to provide this same balance
2015-10-15 16:11:34 fib1618: all we need now for confirmation of this would be upside follow through on Friday
2015-10-15 16:11:43 fib1618: and then a move back above the +250 level
2015-10-15 16:11:57 fib1618: looking at the NYA price chart
2015-10-15 16:12:32 fib1618: and we see that we successfully found snapback support today
2015-10-15 16:12:44 fib1618: and then closed above the last 4 days of price settlement
2015-10-15 16:13:14 fib1618: as was the case on Tuesday with the pattern closing below the previous 3 days of closes
2015-10-15 16:13:29 fib1618: this now indicates that the buyers are back in control of the action on a near term basis
2015-10-15 16:13:56 fib1618: and that we should see prices extend higher from this juncture to around our initial target of 10,800
2015-10-15 16:14:28 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2015-10-15 16:14:51 fib1618: and here we see that the broader market had better strength than the CO data
2015-10-15 16:15:03 fib1618: where it didn't move back below the +25 level
2015-10-15 16:15:31 fib1618: compared to the CO MCO which bottomed out at +20
2015-10-15 16:16:10 fib1618: looking at the 21 day close up chart of the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM
2015-10-15 16:16:43 fib1618: and we can see that we had good gap expansion to the upside with today's 1.45% gain in the NYA index
2015-10-15 16:17:06 fib1618: and leaving us with a pattern of a bottom above a bottom above a bottom intact
2015-10-15 16:17:22 fib1618: so as long as this short term trend of bottoms remains
2015-10-15 16:17:30 fib1618: prices will continue to rally higher
2015-10-15 16:17:55 rite01: it's this type of information that's well worth the admission  ....
2015-10-15 16:17:56 fib1618: and pullbacks are points of near term buying ops for this specific index
2015-10-15 16:18:05 fib1618: [smile]
2015-10-15 16:18:12 fib1618: that's why we use the tools that we do
2015-10-15 16:18:27 fib1618: they provide information not found by any other indicator
2015-10-15 16:18:32 fib1618: the reason being
2015-10-15 16:18:33 fib1618: is that
2015-10-15 16:18:44 fib1618: we are directly measuring the underlying trend of money flow
2015-10-15 16:18:54 fib1618: both on a short term and intermediate term basis
2015-10-15 16:19:13 fib1618: and it's same money flow that leads the direction of price
2015-10-15 16:19:21 fib1618: no voodoo here
2015-10-15 16:19:23 fib1618: no guessing
2015-10-15 16:19:33 fib1618: no high fives
2015-10-15 16:19:48 fib1618: only consistency...with a bit of discipline
2015-10-15 16:20:07 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2015-10-15 16:20:17 fib1618: and here too we got our technical bounce today
2015-10-15 16:20:20 rite01: Right just glad you and spooky are reading the tea leaves....
2015-10-15 16:20:35 fib1618:'re doing the same thing
2015-10-15 16:20:40 fib1618: you just fully realize it as yet
2015-10-15 16:20:41 fib1618: [smile]
2015-10-15 16:20:52 rite01: Yes but learning even more ever session....
2015-10-15 16:21:11 fib1618: that's what we do here...everyday we learn
2015-10-15 16:21:18 fib1618: no egos
2015-10-15 16:21:28 fib1618: as the market will slap you silly if you have one
2015-10-15 16:21:44 rite01: don't I know it
2015-10-15 16:21:52 fib1618: back to the NASDAQ
2015-10-15 16:22:04 fib1618: and the move today in the MCO was a sharp one to the upside
2015-10-15 16:22:14 fib1618: after bottoming out on Wednesday at a +8
2015-10-15 16:22:58 fib1618: note also how the 10% Trend found support right at the 5% Trend today
2015-10-15 16:23:25 fib1618: and both moved back above their zero lines providing us with renewed crossover buy signal
2015-10-15 16:23:38 fib1618: and with it
2015-10-15 16:24:00 fib1618: we now have a continuation of good gap expansion to the upside in the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2015-10-15 16:24:34 fib1618: with prices closing above the intraday reversal highs of Tuesday
2015-10-15 16:24:42 fib1618: so a strong statement by the bulls today
2015-10-15 16:24:49 fib1618: as we had hoped would happen on Tuesday
2015-10-15 16:25:31 fib1618: the NDX breadth MCO also moved back above the +56 level today
2015-10-15 16:25:34 fib1618: and with it
2015-10-15 16:25:51 fib1618: we now have a confirmed breakout back above the NDX breadth MCSUM zero line
2015-10-15 16:26:24 fib1618: showing us that the buyers are, once again, solidly in control of the action
2015-10-15 16:27:01 fib1618: next area of pattern resistance lies at around the +300/+400 level
2015-10-15 16:27:28 fib1618: so a move above +250 seems likely in helping in breaking the back of the corrective sequence seen in the summer
2015-10-15 16:28:03 fib1618: new recovery price highs today in the SPX
2015-10-15 16:28:22 fib1618: with the SPX breadth MCO settling the day at the +50 resistance level
2015-10-15 16:28:47 fib1618: note also how the 10% Trend found component support just above the 5% Trend
2015-10-15 16:29:06 fib1618: this then shows us that the trend of money flow going into the SPX remains on the robust side
2015-10-15 16:29:16 fib1618: and that last week's strong reversal has legs from which to stand
2015-10-15 16:29:53 fib1618: note also how the SPX breadth MCSUM has now cleared above the important mid August high
2015-10-15 16:30:35 fib1618: this is important because this was the point in which the buyers exhausted themselves to such a degree that a crash like event took place right after this point of capitulation
2015-10-15 16:30:42 fib1618: in essence
2015-10-15 16:30:51 fib1618: this now slams the door shut of that corrective process
2015-10-15 16:31:18 fib1618: and any move above the May highs in this MCSUM would then clear the way for a challenge of the all time highs
2015-10-15 16:31:29 fib1618: note also
2015-10-15 16:31:43 fib1618: that we closed near the highs of the day
2015-10-15 16:32:17 fib1618: and that then suggests that those who were holding longs going into the mid September reversal
2015-10-15 16:33:16 fib1618: are now out of the way and probably watching on the sidelines as to not get "fooled again"
2015-10-15 16:33:18 fib1618: but they are
2015-10-15 16:33:45 fib1618: this is why we had a buy stop just above the reversal point of Tuesday
2015-10-15 16:34:08 fib1618: as it would take better conviction than that of mid September to move to new highs
2015-10-15 16:34:13 fib1618: and we got that today
2015-10-15 16:34:44 fib1618: looks like we're likely to see a nice follow through day to the upside on Friday
2015-10-15 16:34:51 fib1618: oh
2015-10-15 16:35:00 fib1618: and "coincidentally"
2015-10-15 16:35:03 fib1618: it's OPEX
2015-10-15 16:35:20 fib1618: where all the speculative puts will expire worthless
2015-10-15 16:35:41 thespookyone: how "unusual" LOL
2015-10-15 16:35:44 fib1618: and that should further lift prices higher
2015-10-15 16:35:59 fib1618: every month the same darn thing happens
2015-10-15 16:36:07 thespookyone: yes sir
2015-10-15 16:36:28 fib1618: it still amazes me to this day on how the specs continue to punish themselves by buying near term options so that they think they will make a killing
2015-10-15 16:36:37 fib1618: and all they get is disappointment
2015-10-15 16:36:45 fib1618: deep pockets only go so far
2015-10-15 16:36:56 fib1618: before you find the hole at the bottom of the pocket
2015-10-15 16:37:01 thespookyone: my room bought calls on the drop this morning, smelled a bear trap
2015-10-15 16:37:24 fib1618: oh...when the market pulled back mid morning?
2015-10-15 16:37:29 thespookyone: yep
2015-10-15 16:37:35 rite01: Good trading spooky
2015-10-15 16:37:36 thespookyone: GS and CELG
2015-10-15 16:37:40 thespookyone: calls
2015-10-15 16:37:40 fib1618: took gonads to do that
2015-10-15 16:37:43 thespookyone: thx
2015-10-15 16:37:54 fib1618: glad it worked out
2015-10-15 16:38:12 fib1618: pretty much the same situation with the OEX data
2015-10-15 16:38:22 thespookyone: like you said, it seems to be playing that way into opex...
2015-10-15 16:38:30 fib1618: both with the MCO bouncing higher
2015-10-15 16:39:00 fib1618: and the MCSUM moving above the July highs
2015-10-15 16:39:27 fib1618: the Dow breadth MCO amazingly bounced right off the +50 level today
2015-10-15 16:39:48 fib1618: and reached the +81 level
2015-10-15 16:39:49 fib1618: and with it
2015-10-15 16:40:12 fib1618: the Dow breadth MCSUM moved above its March highs
2015-10-15 16:40:31 fib1618: so that opens the door for a challenge of the all time price highs on this particular sequence
2015-10-15 16:40:40 fib1618: let me expand the time axis for a moment
2015-10-15 16:40:51 thespookyone: There are a lot of summations at 0, 250, 500, etc. - if they all break through tomorrow, it could be pretty nice
2015-10-15 16:41:23 fib1618: next resistance there are the ledge highs around +1200
2015-10-15 16:41:31 fib1618: yep
2015-10-15 16:41:59 fib1618: and would be consistent in identifying an "one for all, all for one" trend development
2015-10-15 16:42:35 fib1618: the MID breadth MCO found support near the zero line today
2015-10-15 16:42:41 fib1618: and bounced sharply higher with a reading of +38
2015-10-15 16:44:04 fib1618: and this has helped push the MID breadth MCSUM to challenge its June highs
2015-10-15 16:44:28 fib1618: as with most of these levels of resistance
2015-10-15 16:44:46 fib1618: we usually see the market burst above such areas with conviction
2015-10-15 16:45:28 fib1618: so here's another piece of the puzzle suggesting that Friday could be a nice up day
2015-10-15 16:45:41 fib1618: one of the things that will confuse many technicians here
2015-10-15 16:45:51 fib1618: and I don't know really if you're seeing this as yet
2015-10-15 16:46:08 fib1618: but there will be many who will claim that we're too "overbought" to continue higher from these levels
2015-10-15 16:46:36 fib1618: but they would be incorrect because the flow of capital is moving in to support these same "overbought" numbers
2015-10-15 16:46:46 fib1618: if, on the other hand, money was moving out
2015-10-15 16:46:52 fib1618: as it was in early August
2015-10-15 16:47:01 fib1618: then "overbought" readings would be dangerous
2015-10-15 16:47:30 fib1618: but now...we can again remain "overbought" for a longer period of time than those who try to force the issue lower
2015-10-15 16:47:53 fib1618: it's all about being flexible in your analysis
2015-10-15 16:48:07 fib1618: and never thinking that your tools don't know any better than you do
2015-10-15 16:48:13 fib1618: if money is moving in
2015-10-15 16:48:26 fib1618: it's "oversold" levels that help pinpoint buy points
2015-10-15 16:48:31 fib1618: if money is moving out
2015-10-15 16:48:48 fib1618: it's "overbought" levels that help pinpoint sell points
2015-10-15 16:48:56 fib1618: keep it simple
2015-10-15 16:49:31 fib1618: if it's not a "reasonable expectation" given the information provided
2015-10-15 16:49:38 fib1618: then it probably isn't
2015-10-15 16:49:50 rite01: I think I'm seeing it.. thanks
2015-10-15 16:50:06 fib1618: not only do you have to see it
2015-10-15 16:50:18 fib1618: you MUST believe in what you're seeing
2015-10-15 16:50:29 fib1618: this is all math
2015-10-15 16:50:33 fib1618: physics
2015-10-15 16:50:43 rite01: and experience does not hurt
2015-10-15 16:50:44 fib1618: and you can't change it
2015-10-15 16:50:48 fib1618: helps
2015-10-15 16:50:55 fib1618: but you have to start somewhere
2015-10-15 16:51:04 rite01: That what's really getting my attention
2015-10-15 16:51:16 fib1618: and be sure your starting blocks are in proper alignment for you to run the race
2015-10-15 16:51:28 fib1618: by this time
2015-10-15 16:51:38 fib1618: you have seen the consistency in what we chat about
2015-10-15 16:51:44 fib1618: there's no guessing here
2015-10-15 16:52:15 fib1618: but there are times in which the probability to outcome ratio isn't as clear as we want it to be
2015-10-15 16:52:22 fib1618: and for those days
2015-10-15 16:52:25 fib1618: we stand aside
2015-10-15 16:52:30 fib1618: and wait for more information
2015-10-15 16:52:42 fib1618: just like everything else in life
2015-10-15 16:52:59 fib1618: nothing provides day to day clarity
2015-10-15 16:53:10 fib1618: same thing here
2015-10-15 16:53:57 rite01: thanks again
2015-10-15 16:54:14 fib1618: those who like to show their plumage in how good they are at this
2015-10-15 16:54:26 fib1618: eventually get plucked
2015-10-15 16:54:38 fib1618: no thanks needed
2015-10-15 16:54:42 fib1618: just make money
2015-10-15 16:55:06 fib1618: (and tell your friends)
2015-10-15 16:55:14 fib1618: OK...back to work
2015-10-15 16:55:45 fib1618: notice that the SML breadth MCSUM is now back above its zero line now
2015-10-15 16:55:54 fib1618: and as we have talked about before with regard to the MCSUM
2015-10-15 16:56:01 fib1618: the closer it gets to the zero line
2015-10-15 16:56:06 fib1618: after being at an extreme
2015-10-15 16:56:32 fib1618: the better chance prices have in moving in this new direction
2015-10-15 16:56:35 fib1618: last week
2015-10-15 16:56:43 fib1618: the SML was up an astounding 5.05%
2015-10-15 16:56:55 fib1618: we have an outside range day today
2015-10-15 16:57:07 fib1618: which suggests a higher close on Friday
2015-10-15 16:57:22 fib1618: and with the MCSUM moving back from negative to positive control
2015-10-15 16:57:49 fib1618: tomorrow has a good chance in seeing this index match what the other indices did today
2015-10-15 16:58:04 fib1618: and closing above the mid September reversal highs
2015-10-15 16:58:25 fib1618: with any move above the mid July peak in the SML breadth MCSUM
2015-10-15 16:58:49 fib1618: allowing prices to challenge these same highs around 725
2015-10-15 16:59:32 fib1618: and that's another 6% gain from here
2015-10-15 16:59:50 fib1618: and if we believe in the idea of price pattern equality
2015-10-15 16:59:55 fib1618: would also match last week's advance
2015-10-15 17:00:03 fib1618: anyway
2015-10-15 17:00:20 fib1618: as we touched upon with last weekend's breadth review
2015-10-15 17:00:33 fib1618: the rest of October continues to looks like a good one for the bulls
2015-10-15 17:00:58 fib1618: while the majority continues to be cautious's October
2015-10-15 17:01:05 fib1618: and once they realize that they missed out
2015-10-15 17:01:08 fib1618: we'll top
2015-10-15 17:01:19 fib1618: happens over and over and over again
2015-10-15 17:01:28 fib1618: and very few learn their lessons
2015-10-15 17:01:31 fib1618: because
2015-10-15 17:01:45 fib1618: they don't think it can happen again...the market isn't that "orderly"
2015-10-15 17:01:48 fib1618: but it really is
2015-10-15 17:02:25 fib1618: and the TM breadth MCO also moved higher today
2015-10-15 17:02:40 fib1618: and above the late June highs
2015-10-15 17:02:42 fib1618: but...
2015-10-15 17:02:50 fib1618: still below the TM breadth MCSUM zero line
2015-10-15 17:02:59 fib1618: notice also
2015-10-15 17:03:10 fib1618: how the 5% component found zero line support today
2015-10-15 17:03:25 fib1618: it's these kinds of "whispers" that help define whether we have a trend or not
2015-10-15 17:03:47 fib1618: so we'll probably see the TM breadth MCSUM move back above its zero line next week
2015-10-15 17:03:50 fib1618: so...
2015-10-15 17:04:01 fib1618: the last two days were good character day for the buyers
2015-10-15 17:04:27 fib1618: showing that last weeks reversal rally has some legs here to extend even further
2015-10-15 17:04:49 fib1618: and as long as we remain with bottoms above bottoms in the breadth MCO's
2015-10-15 17:04:57 fib1618: the path of least resistance remains to the upside
2015-10-15 17:05:12 fib1618: let's see how the sectors are doing
2015-10-15 17:05:36 fib1618: we see that we had a nice zero line bounce today in the XLY breadth MCO
2015-10-15 17:06:06 fib1618: with both the 10% and 5% components also providing support
2015-10-15 17:06:36 fib1618: this should now help us to close the MCSUM gap resistance points we see on the chart
2015-10-15 17:06:56 fib1618: the first of which is before the zero line
2015-10-15 17:07:02 fib1618: the second one just above it
2015-10-15 17:07:50 fib1618: so it's going to take quite a bit of strength to not only break above these gaps, but also the zero line simultaneously
2015-10-15 17:08:29 fib1618: so it's very likely to be an exciting couple of days coming up for this basket of issues
2015-10-15 17:09:21 fib1618: inside range day on the XLP suggesting an up close on Friday
2015-10-15 17:09:37 fib1618: and the XLP breadth MCSUM has now reached our objective from last week of +1000
2015-10-15 17:09:51 fib1618: well...+962...close enough for now
2015-10-15 17:10:16 rite01: So inside and outside would give the same signal?
2015-10-15 17:10:17 fib1618: just on a cursory basis
2015-10-15 17:10:30 fib1618: you can see how money continues to pour into this basket of issues
2015-10-15 17:10:48 fib1618: inside, outside, and mid range days all do the same trick
2015-10-15 17:10:56 rite01: OK
2015-10-15 17:11:23 fib1618: remember that there is a tutorial available on this under the "technically speaking" area of the message board
2015-10-15 17:11:53 fib1618: so this ETF remains one of the bulls favorites
2015-10-15 17:12:12 fib1618: has been of a little over a month now
2015-10-15 17:12:36 fib1618: good support continues with the XLE breadth MCO
2015-10-15 17:12:48 fib1618: and we're now about to move back above the XLE breadth MCSUM zero line
2015-10-15 17:13:05 fib1618: with control moving back to the buy side on an intermediate term basis
2015-10-15 17:13:13 fib1618: looking at the price structure
2015-10-15 17:13:41 fib1618: and a strong break above the $70.00 level is probable
2015-10-15 17:13:45 fib1618: let me check the SAR
2015-10-15 17:14:07 thespookyone: I love mid 72's here, very quickly, fwiw
2015-10-15 17:14:19 fib1618: still on a buy signal on the SAR
2015-10-15 17:14:30 fib1618: sell stop at $63.56
2015-10-15 17:14:41 fib1618: the 20 day EMA is about to move up and through the 50 day EMA
2015-10-15 17:15:03 fib1618: and the 200 day EMA is at $72.67
2015-10-15 17:15:13 fib1618: so there's your target Lew
2015-10-15 17:15:21 thespookyone: yep, thx
2015-10-15 17:15:21 rite01: thanks spooky
2015-10-15 17:15:35 fib1618: good accumulation in the index now
2015-10-15 17:15:44 fib1618: fill up your gas tanks
2015-10-15 17:16:01 fib1618: because prices are about as cheap as we'll see them for the rest of the year
2015-10-15 17:16:05 thespookyone: we have 70 calls for next week that we are in at 2 cents [smile]
2015-10-15 17:16:18 fib1618: betcha heating oil is about to go up quickly now
2015-10-15 17:16:27 fib1618: 2 cents?
2015-10-15 17:16:50 thespookyone: yep, and we bought 70.50's for next week early today for 3 cents
2015-10-15 17:16:51 fib1618: these are weeklies?
2015-10-15 17:16:58 thespookyone: next week
2015-10-15 17:17:05 fib1618: gawd
2015-10-15 17:17:11 thespookyone: 2 cents meaning of course 2 dollars
2015-10-15 17:17:15 fib1618: OK.
2015-10-15 17:17:20 fib1618: I thought so
2015-10-15 17:17:24 thespookyone: still....
2015-10-15 17:17:26 fib1618: 2 cents! lol
2015-10-15 17:17:35 fib1618: how can I get into that ?
2015-10-15 17:17:37 thespookyone: LOL
2015-10-15 17:17:37 fib1618: [smile]
2015-10-15 17:17:57 thespookyone: 2 dollars may look cheap next week too [smile]
2015-10-15 17:18:14 thespookyone: I'm shooting for $250
2015-10-15 17:18:33 fib1618: $74 looks doable after a quick hesitation at $72
2015-10-15 17:19:00 thespookyone: NICE!
2015-10-15 17:22:06 fib1618: moving to the XLF breadth MCO
2015-10-15 17:22:41 fib1618: and we see here that Wednesday's retracement took it well below the zero line
2015-10-15 17:22:57 fib1618: as we snapped back toward the zero line today
2015-10-15 17:23:03 fib1618: the problem here though
2015-10-15 17:23:23 fib1618: is that we took out the end September lows in this process
2015-10-15 17:23:52 fib1618: this then suggests that the buyers are going to have a problem reaching "escape velocity" on the XLF breadth MCSUM by moving above the +500 level
2015-10-15 17:24:06 fib1618: (at least initially)
2015-10-15 17:24:31 fib1618: where until this happens
2015-10-15 17:24:48 fib1618: it's not likely the prices will find any traction above the price highs of the last two months
2015-10-15 17:25:16 fib1618: so, I guess, the inability of prices moving above the top of this range is coming with a reason
2015-10-15 17:25:20 fib1618: more than likely
2015-10-15 17:25:29 fib1618: if interest rates are going to remain low...or go lower
2015-10-15 17:25:42 fib1618: banks are not likely to "capitalize" on this
2015-10-15 17:25:42 rite01: XLF vol MCO did not take out Sept low implying..
2015-10-15 17:27:49 fib1618: well...looking at the pattern
2015-10-15 17:28:00 fib1618: and how it plays with the XLF volume MCSUM
2015-10-15 17:28:28 fib1618: this suggests that the buyers are really trying to dig their heels in and keep prices from moving lower
2015-10-15 17:28:38 fib1618: being at the zero line on the MCSUM is the demarcation between who has control
2015-10-15 17:29:07 fib1618: so although breadth weakness was noted on a short term trending basis on Wednesday
2015-10-15 17:29:33 fib1618: the amount of money moving out of these issues was not as broad based
2015-10-15 17:29:39 fib1618: idea
2015-10-15 17:29:41 fib1618: is that
2015-10-15 17:30:32 fib1618: money was moving out of this sector and seeking out another which was undervalued than this one
2015-10-15 17:30:55 fib1618: *more* undervalued
2015-10-15 17:30:58 fib1618: in any event
2015-10-15 17:31:14 fib1618: until we see renewed interest in this sector
2015-10-15 17:31:26 fib1618: best to step aside and work with those that are showing interest
2015-10-15 17:31:36 rite01: agreed
2015-10-15 17:31:40 fib1618: the one thing we don't want to do is nit pick
2015-10-15 17:31:52 fib1618: we want to see a path of least resistance
2015-10-15 17:31:58 rite01: OK got it
2015-10-15 17:32:15 fib1618: so though it would be nice to watch for a upside break in prices here
2015-10-15 17:32:24 fib1618: it's not clear on when this might take place
2015-10-15 17:32:30 fib1618: maybe not for another week
2015-10-15 17:32:35 fib1618: meanwhile
2015-10-15 17:32:54 fib1618: we don't want to miss out on opportunities in those areas that are showing good upside amplitude
2015-10-15 17:32:59 fib1618: the XLE, for example
2015-10-15 17:33:01 fib1618: the XLP, as another
2015-10-15 17:33:14 fib1618: there maybe more...let's check
2015-10-15 17:34:01 fib1618: the XLV breadth MCO continues to improve from last week
2015-10-15 17:34:36 fib1618: with prices closing at the highs of the day today
2015-10-15 17:35:11 fib1618: note here that we now have a bottom above a bottom constructed above the XLV breadth MCO zero line
2015-10-15 17:35:31 fib1618: so this underlying support should help buoy prices over the near term
2015-10-15 17:36:08 fib1618: the XLI breadth MCSUM is now at its zero line with a reading of -17
2015-10-15 17:36:34 fib1618: where we also have double top resistance from July and August
2015-10-15 17:36:54 fib1618: it should then be no surprise that any break above these levels
2015-10-15 17:37:18 fib1618: is going to allow the Dow Industrials and Transports to rally sharply on the cross
2015-10-15 17:37:47 fib1618: looking at the XLB breadth MCO
2015-10-15 17:38:04 fib1618: and here we are showing strong short term trending support currently
2015-10-15 17:38:23 fib1618: with a strong double bottom price pattern behind us
2015-10-15 17:38:33 fib1618: of which
2015-10-15 17:38:51 fib1618: we had hoped the rest of the market would do the same 2 weeks ago
2015-10-15 17:38:56 fib1618: but we get what we get
2015-10-15 17:39:30 fib1618: any move back above the XLB breadth MCSUM zero line should be good for a 10% gain in this index
2015-10-15 17:39:40 fib1618: so this one is worth watching
2015-10-15 17:40:25 fib1618: watch your EMA's on these chart structures as well
2015-10-15 17:40:48 fib1618: as they will help guide us as more and more buyer conviction returns to the market
2015-10-15 17:41:35 fib1618: the XLK breadth MCO showed good support at the +51 level today
2015-10-15 17:42:07 fib1618: and this higher amplitude of strength provided a nice upside gap today in the price pattern
2015-10-15 17:42:22 fib1618: ooooo...
2015-10-15 17:42:28 fib1618: look at the EMA's on the XLK
2015-10-15 17:42:52 fib1618: the 20 is at $40.77
2015-10-15 17:43:02 fib1618: the 50 is at $40.74
2015-10-15 17:43:12 fib1618: and the 200 is at $40.89
2015-10-15 17:43:19 fib1618: tighter than a snare drum
2015-10-15 17:43:32 fib1618: so a major price move here is imminent
2015-10-15 17:44:19 fib1618: longer term structure looks promising here
2015-10-15 17:44:38 fib1618: with an SAR stop at $40.78
2015-10-15 17:44:43 fib1618: talk about support!
2015-10-15 17:44:54 fib1618: think I might jump in on this one
2015-10-15 17:45:16 fib1618: note also that the XLK breadth MCSUM is at +461
2015-10-15 17:45:24 fib1618: so another good day on Friday
2015-10-15 17:45:36 fib1618: and up and through the +500 level we go
2015-10-15 17:46:08 fib1618: and the XLU remains strong underneath it all
2015-10-15 17:46:21 fib1618: and maybe we're finally getting a spark in the price action because of it
2015-10-15 17:46:55 fib1618: as we slowly continue toward our upside target from 3 or so weeks ago of around the $45 level
2015-10-15 17:47:16 fib1618: watch the XLU breadth MCSUM though as it negotiates the +1500 level
2015-10-15 17:47:37 fib1618: maybe better to not be too excited with this least for now
2015-10-15 17:47:41 fib1618: so....
2015-10-15 17:47:56 fib1618: we're now seeing more and more evidence that a trend to the upside is underway
2015-10-15 17:48:15 fib1618: with targets in and around the all time highs on many of the price charts we cover here in the chat
2015-10-15 17:48:38 fib1618: the stronger indices/sectors will show their breadth MCSUM's above their zero lines
2015-10-15 17:48:58 fib1618: with those that haven't reached these levels about to join the party
2015-10-15 17:49:09 fib1618: let's see how the OBV's are
2015-10-15 17:49:49 fib1618: CVI's finding near zero line support
2015-10-15 17:49:53 fib1618: constructive
2015-10-15 17:50:13 fib1618: the STVO's continue to unwind their "overbought" levels from last week
2015-10-15 17:50:25 fib1618: so it looks like we're starting to "correct on the fly" again
2015-10-15 17:50:38 fib1618: VTO's are positive...with the Dow VTO now "overbought"
2015-10-15 17:51:16 fib1618: looks more and more of a double bottom now
2015-10-15 17:51:34 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 1.09
2015-10-15 17:51:42 fib1618: Open 10 at .88
2015-10-15 17:51:46 fib1618: now neutral
2015-10-15 17:52:02 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.20
2015-10-15 17:52:11 fib1618: Open 10 at .82
2015-10-15 17:52:27 fib1618: and backing off from Wednesday's "overbought" readings
2015-10-15 17:52:40 fib1618: TM TRIN at 1.10
2015-10-15 17:52:48 fib1618: Open 10 at .87
2015-10-15 17:53:03 fib1618: so a bit on the neutral side as well
2015-10-15 17:53:07 fib1618: so...
2015-10-15 17:53:38 fib1618: it would appear that we saw continued support by the buyers after last week's breadth and volume thrusts
2015-10-15 17:54:10 fib1618: and this should allow many prices to challenge their high points of May and June over the next couple of weeks
2015-10-15 17:54:20 fib1618: let me check the BETS
2015-10-15 17:54:35 fib1618: hopefully we'll get additional improvement there
2015-10-15 17:55:11 rite01: we should
2015-10-15 17:55:47 fib1618: -15
2015-10-15 17:55:50 fib1618: but
2015-10-15 17:56:02 fib1618: there is a marked improvement now in the cumulative charts
2015-10-15 17:56:16 fib1618: you'll see them this weekend...
2015-10-15 17:56:22 fib1618: we're close to being at zero for the BETS
2015-10-15 17:56:34 fib1618: if we get a sharp advance on's going to be real close
2015-10-15 17:56:57 fib1618: anything else?
2015-10-15 17:57:06 rite01: any word yet?
2015-10-15 17:57:24 fib1618: plenty of words
2015-10-15 17:57:31 fib1618: just haven't had the time
2015-10-15 17:57:35 rite01: :blush:
2015-10-15 17:57:48 rite01: understand when you do let me know
2015-10-15 17:57:51 fib1618: I will get to it as soon as I have the time to work it...I will let you know
2015-10-15 17:57:55 fib1618: yes
2015-10-15 17:58:22 rite01: I love being the guinea pig
2015-10-15 17:58:27 fib1618: me too
2015-10-15 17:58:31 fib1618: (I think)
2015-10-15 17:58:33 fib1618: [smile]
2015-10-15 17:59:02 fib1618: OK...I'm going to take off and see if we can get all blue teams in the championship series'
2015-10-15 17:59:16 rite01: Good luck on your teams
2015-10-15 17:59:16 fib1618: everyone have a fantastic weekend
2015-10-15 17:59:26 fib1618: and we'll see how things are shaking on Tuesday
2015-10-15 17:59:28 fib1618: good night
2015-10-15 17:59:32 rite01: Good night all!

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