All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.

PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at

Support Technical Watch!
Buy from our Book Store!
Register Calendar Latest Topics

  Author   Comment  

Posts: 4,423
Reply with quote  #1 
My apologies again for the delay in the Tuesday's scripts...the vendor had a catastrophic hard drive failure Tuesday night...glad they were able to capture this one.

2014-10-14 16:00:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2014-10-14 16:01:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2014-10-14 16:01:13 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Great and You!
2014-10-14 16:04:18 [Message] PrincelyM -> Chat: Hey Dave
2014-10-14 16:06:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: doing fine
2014-10-14 16:06:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: running around like a chicken with my head cut off...but hanging in there
2014-10-14 16:06:46 [Message] sp112358 -> Chat: Good afternoon, hope you're doing well
2014-10-14 16:06:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2014-10-14 16:07:12 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Yes, went short
2014-10-14 16:07:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ahhhh...when?
2014-10-14 16:07:50 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: at close yesterday SPX 1900 and should have
2014-10-14 16:08:10 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: earlier in the day.
2014-10-14 16:08:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...
2014-10-14 16:08:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well...hopefully we'll have a good feel for things after tonight's session
2014-10-14 16:09:03 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: OK looking forward to your opinion
2014-10-14 16:09:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:'s the market's opinion
2014-10-14 16:09:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm just a mouthpiece [smile]
2014-10-14 16:09:33 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Right!
2014-10-14 16:09:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...
2014-10-14 16:10:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's get SC up and see what we have to work with
2014-10-14 16:11:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after taking out the lows of last week on Monday
2014-10-14 16:11:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO bounced higher today
2014-10-14 16:11:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remains below last week's high point
2014-10-14 16:12:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meanwhile
2014-10-14 16:12:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yesterday's sell off moved the 10% Trend back below the -200 level
2014-10-14 16:12:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's now challenging the previous low point seen in the early part of the month
2014-10-14 16:12:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have talked about in the past
2014-10-14 16:13:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we see this kind of divergence between the 10% component and the MCO itself, it usually means that we are close to an exhaustion point
2014-10-14 16:13:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the MCO then starts to rebound towards its zero line
2014-10-14 16:13:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like we saw today
2014-10-14 16:14:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point it's a bit early to tell if we're going to see the pattern move to new highs or not on this sequence
2014-10-14 16:14:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but as the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM is now approaching the -1000 level
2014-10-14 16:15:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it becomes more and more difficult for the sellers to keep the pressure on in moving this same indicator lower
2014-10-14 16:15:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's continue to look around and see how the composite looks
2014-10-14 16:15:59 [Message] sp112358 -> Chat: Would it be the correct technical expectation, that With the McSum as deep as it is, retracements to be of limited duration even though if swift and sharp?
2014-10-14 16:16:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now here, and surprising so, the NYSE Composite breadth MCO moved below not only last weeks low point
2014-10-14 16:16:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it also challenged the lows of early October as well (yes, Sam)
2014-10-14 16:17:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what makes this surprising is that we also know that when we look at the NYSE Composite we're also including a heavy weighting in the interest rate sensitive issues
2014-10-14 16:17:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the 10 year note now within striking distance of our 2.15% target objective
2014-10-14 16:17:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would think that there would be more support in these same interest rate sensitive issues
2014-10-14 16:17:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as was mentioned in the weekly breadth data review
2014-10-14 16:18:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this move to our target of 2.15% could either be one in which is only a stopping point for lower rates or a continuation point
2014-10-14 16:18:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this difference would be predicated on the action of these same interest rate sensitive issues
2014-10-14 16:19:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with the broader Composite showing more weakness here than the Common Only issues
2014-10-14 16:19:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then suggest that the A/D line interest rate derivatives that make up this group are probably not making higher highs
2014-10-14 16:20:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if this is the case...then this might well be the lowest interest rates are liable to go for a good long time
2014-10-14 16:20:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll watch with "interest" to see how we move forward from here
2014-10-14 16:20:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM
2014-10-14 16:20:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that it moved down and through the -500 level on Monday
2014-10-14 16:21:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we saw what happened with the market on this break of natural support
2014-10-14 16:21:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now..
2014-10-14 16:21:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the next target with the follow through that we saw today will be the -750 level
2014-10-14 16:21:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll continue to monitor things as we move along
2014-10-14 16:21:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2014-10-14 16:22:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it did wind up challenging its recent lows on Monday
2014-10-14 16:22:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it didn't quite take them out as we had hoped would be the case
2014-10-14 16:22:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the 10% Component
2014-10-14 16:23:05 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Noticed the MCO divergence yesterday
2014-10-14 16:23:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see the same kind of internal divergence that we had with the NYSE where we saw a lower low not so much confirmed by the NASDAQ MCO
2014-10-14 16:23:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good're starting to get the hang of it now
2014-10-14 16:23:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking a ruler to monitor here
2014-10-14 16:24:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the NASDAQ breadth MCO continues to move beneath a strong line of declining tops
2014-10-14 16:24:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as long as this line of negative influence continues to hold
2014-10-14 16:24:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market will continue to be vulnerable to continued decay in prices
2014-10-14 16:25:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2014-10-14 16:25:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll note that it moved below the -750 level today
2014-10-14 16:25:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any follow through weakness on Wednesday would then move out next target for this indicator to the -1000 level
2014-10-14 16:25:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the weakness that comes with that
2014-10-14 16:26:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NDX breadth MCO
2014-10-14 16:26:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we smashed to new lows on Monday
2014-10-14 16:27:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a reading of -122
2014-10-14 16:27:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the reason for this high number...
2014-10-14 16:27:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was that it was needed for the NDX breadth MCSUM to move down and through its zero line on Monday
2014-10-14 16:27:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it...
2014-10-14 16:27:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a 1%+ decline in the index
2014-10-14 16:28:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as intermediate term control went from buyers to sellers
2014-10-14 16:28:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NDX chart action
2014-10-14 16:28:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see that with this zero line breach
2014-10-14 16:29:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price pattern itself was able to break below horizontal pattern support that was seen back in early August
2014-10-14 16:29:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with this increase in selling velocity
2014-10-14 16:29:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we now have a new downside price target for the NDX
2014-10-14 16:29:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it looks like around 3575
2014-10-14 16:29:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't forget
2014-10-14 16:30:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a warning that something like this was going to happen very soon
2014-10-14 16:30:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since the SOX was down some 7% on Friday
2014-10-14 16:30:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: breaking trendline support
2014-10-14 16:30:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with a huge gap that may or may not be filled short term
2014-10-14 16:30:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in any event
2014-10-14 16:31:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anytime we see new extremes in the MCO or the MCSUM
2014-10-14 16:31:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this tells us that we're in an Elliott 3rd wave pattern
2014-10-14 16:31:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the backbone of this wave structure sees the highest extremes both in volume and breadth
2014-10-14 16:32:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have a good idea of where we are right now in this specific market index
2014-10-14 16:32:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less the other indices
2014-10-14 16:32:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the only difference being
2014-10-14 16:32:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where they are within this 3rd wave decline
2014-10-14 16:33:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why it's important that we get the market "in sync" as soon as possible with seeing the great majority, if not all, of the breadth MCO's at new lows for the price pattern sequence
2014-10-14 16:33:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any inconsistencies make it hard to actually time the eventual low in the overall market psychology
2014-10-14 16:33:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which makes a big difference in how we should likely trade overall
2014-10-14 16:34:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the NDX co-operated on Monday
2014-10-14 16:34:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see if there were other indices that did as well
2014-10-14 16:34:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SPX breadth MCO
2014-10-14 16:34:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we also moved to new lows on Monday
2014-10-14 16:35:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this occurred right as the SPX breadth MCSUM was moving down and through the -250 level
2014-10-14 16:35:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again
2014-10-14 16:35:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market knows what it's doing
2014-10-14 16:35:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in any effort of reaching a desired goal
2014-10-14 16:36:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money will "magically" co-ordinate itself between short and intermediate term time periods, and actual price pattern support or resistance areas, in order to accomplish these same goals
2014-10-14 16:36:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example here
2014-10-14 16:37:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is nothing "coincidental" that the MCO and MCSUM moved lower in accomplishing the forecast of reaching the 1875 level in the SPX that was given early last week
2014-10-14 16:37:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we know that this was a good target because of two things
2014-10-14 16:38:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one...we closed with a bulls eye with this target at 1874.83
2014-10-14 16:38:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and secondly
2014-10-14 16:38:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices attempted to bounce off this same support objective today
2014-10-14 16:38:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although
2014-10-14 16:38:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our moving to lower lows
2014-10-14 16:39:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it wasn't likely that any rally was going to least at first try
2014-10-14 16:39:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is why the market peaked at lunch time...and then got weaker and weaker for the rest of the day
2014-10-14 16:39:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order for prices to move against the bear market default
2014-10-14 16:40:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there must be "texture" in the MCO for something like this to happen
2014-10-14 16:40:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's like the difference between rock climbing when its dry and sunny and you have a foothold
2014-10-14 16:40:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that of this same rock climb with the mountain is covered with ice and snowing
2014-10-14 16:41:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you slip, you try again, but then you start to slip again with no way of finding a area of support to keep you from falling back to where you started
2014-10-14 16:41:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2014-10-14 16:42:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since we moved to lower lows on Monday on the SPX breadth MCO
2014-10-14 16:42:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we know that this was likely the extreme point of an Elliott 3rd wave
2014-10-14 16:42:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so unless this sequence "extends"
2014-10-14 16:42:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wave 4 probably started today...or will in a day or two
2014-10-14 16:42:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but here's the kicker
2014-10-14 16:42:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without a uniformed bottom on all of the breadth MCO
2014-10-14 16:43:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 'the likelihood of this being the end of the 3rd wave decline is less than 25%
2014-10-14 16:43:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so you play the odds accordingly
2014-10-14 16:43:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the OEX breadth MCO
2014-10-14 16:43:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we also moved to a lower low on Monday
2014-10-14 16:43:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so thinking about this for a moment
2014-10-14 16:44:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: over the last couple of weeks
2014-10-14 16:44:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have talked about how the broader market was much weaker than the large caps
2014-10-14 16:44:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that it was likely that they would start this game of "catch up" to the small caps over the next week or so
2014-10-14 16:44:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far...this has been the correct interpretation
2014-10-14 16:45:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the broader NYSE data hasn't moved to lower lows (as yet)
2014-10-14 16:45:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but those indices that were still well above the MCSUM zero line are only now seeing enough weakness to participate in this same catch up game
2014-10-14 16:46:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unfortunately though
2014-10-14 16:46:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this makes things quite messy for the market in general
2014-10-14 16:46:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and either one of two things is probably going to take place
2014-10-14 16:47:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: either A) we're going to see one last grand sell off to the downside to correct this intramarket lack of consistency
2014-10-14 16:48:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or B) we're going to continue to chop below the breadth MCO for an extended period of time to where these same breadth MCO's begin to show the textural consistency that is needed for a foundational base to be created
2014-10-14 16:48:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now
2014-10-14 16:48:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the A) version is still a likely bet...a sharp decline
2014-10-14 16:48:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we don't have a large window for this to take place either
2014-10-14 16:49:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as was mentioned in last weekend's Weekly Breadth review there is only a 2 week window for this to get done
2014-10-14 16:49:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so far...this continues to be the best time element at this time
2014-10-14 16:49:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...we're not quite out of the woods as yet
2014-10-14 16:50:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but by the middle part of next week we should have a good idea of what the rest of the year is likely to give us
2014-10-14 16:50:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the OEX breadth MCSUM
2014-10-14 16:50:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we moved down and through the zero line today
2014-10-14 16:51:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this would then leave only the Dow MCSUM as the only one still above its zero line...unless it continues to echo the OEX...let's take a look
2014-10-14 16:51:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and echo it is
2014-10-14 16:51:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCSUM moved down and through its zero line today
2014-10-14 16:51:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also see that we had a hard down on Monday in the Dow breadth MCO
2014-10-14 16:51:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but unlike the OEX
2014-10-14 16:51:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it did not move below the August lows
2014-10-14 16:52:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that Monday's breadth was something like 7:1 negative
2014-10-14 16:52:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was it yesterday?
2014-10-14 16:52:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me sec (the days seem to run together lately for me)
2014-10-14 16:52:53 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Join the crowd
2014-10-14 16:53:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was Friday
2014-10-14 16:53:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it was the NASDAQ
2014-10-14 16:54:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 7:1 negative
2014-10-14 16:54:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the NYSE was a little under 5:1 negative
2014-10-14 16:54:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: high breadth pluralities like this don't usually take place AFTER an already extended move
2014-10-14 16:54:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then again
2014-10-14 16:55:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCSUM had been holding prices up up until Friday
2014-10-14 16:55:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that breakdown is pretty much a catch up move
2014-10-14 16:55:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2014-10-14 16:56:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what's important now for the bears is for the Dow breadth MCSUM to take out its previous low points that we see in February and August periods
2014-10-14 16:56:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they are taken out
2014-10-14 16:56:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then a test of the February price lows will then be likely
2014-10-14 16:56:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's another 1000 points lower from here
2014-10-14 16:56:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...interestingly enough
2014-10-14 16:56:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: longer term
2014-10-14 16:57:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this kind of decline would then provide a technical snapback to or towards the previous all time highs in the Dow at just under 14,500
2014-10-14 16:58:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so as we get more and more information, we'll continue to separate the chafe from the wheat to get our best plan of attack
2014-10-14 16:59:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO also bounced higher today on the back of the 10% Component divergence
2014-10-14 16:59:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the MID breadth MCSUM has now moved down and through the -750 level
2014-10-14 16:59:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at today's price bar
2014-10-14 16:59:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a mid range close
2014-10-14 17:00:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with our closing lower on Monday
2014-10-14 17:00:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would indicate that we should close up on Wednesday
2014-10-14 17:00:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but aside from this
2014-10-14 17:00:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we see better monetary strength in the MID breadth MCO to move it back above the just recent high point
2014-10-14 17:01:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this market, like everything else, will continue to take the path of least resistance this case to the downside
2014-10-14 17:01:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll also note
2014-10-14 17:02:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that today's range on the MID also satisfied a simple snapback to what was previous support with the April lows
2014-10-14 17:02:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's certainly not a sure thing of a positive close on Wednesday
2014-10-14 17:02:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least this time around
2014-10-14 17:02:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if there were a better MCO pattern to work with...then the odds would be higher
2014-10-14 17:03:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the SML breadth MCO
2014-10-14 17:03:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now here we have something for the bulls to work with
2014-10-14 17:03:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have now fully snapped back to the MCO zero line
2014-10-14 17:03:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after being...
2014-10-14 17:03:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...correct
2014-10-14 17:04:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after being UP on Monday
2014-10-14 17:04:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this is the index to watch near term
2014-10-14 17:04:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you're holding shorts
2014-10-14 17:04:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since now that we've fulfilled the technical obligation of a snapback to the MCO zero line
2014-10-14 17:05:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we're now able to move above the mid September highs
2014-10-14 17:05:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: than our idea of an Elliott 4th wave would be underway
2014-10-14 17:05:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or more simplistically
2014-10-14 17:05:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a bear market consolidation that would include a short covering rally
2014-10-14 17:06:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the price chart though
2014-10-14 17:06:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see how there wasn't any fresh buying today as we moved to the MCO zero line
2014-10-14 17:06:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the price bar was not able to hold and close above the 50% level of today's range
2014-10-14 17:07:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the answer for this is actually pretty clear
2014-10-14 17:07:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we look at the 1 year price structure
2014-10-14 17:07:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and note that we are right in the area of where we saw our last bottom back in February
2014-10-14 17:07:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it shouldn't be too surprising that shorts would cover in this area
2014-10-14 17:07:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and did so in the morning
2014-10-14 17:08:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there wasn't any fresh buying to keep prices from decaying the rest of the day
2014-10-14 17:08:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a good sign near term
2014-10-14 17:08:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check daily volume on the reflex - one sec
2014-10-14 17:09:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was above average
2014-10-14 17:09:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at the lowest point since the reflex rally of early October
2014-10-14 17:09:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we all know what happened after that failure
2014-10-14 17:09:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also know that...
2014-10-14 17:09:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we're at the MCO zero line
2014-10-14 17:10:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are basically evened up between buyers and sellers on a short term trending basis
2014-10-14 17:10:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now one side is about to take control
2014-10-14 17:10:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the rest of the market still smarting from Monday's late decline
2014-10-14 17:11:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would be a reasonable expectation that we're going to need some additional backing and filling before the buyers can actually do more than bring things back to parity
2014-10-14 17:11:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: last feather in the bull hat though
2014-10-14 17:11:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that today's completed snapback to the zero line on the SML breadth MCO
2014-10-14 17:12:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also broke above the declining tops line that has been controlling the pattern since late August
2014-10-14 17:12:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this continues to be our near term barometer of sorts over the next couple of days
2014-10-14 17:12:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (Same with the Russell 2000)
2014-10-14 17:13:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the TM breadth MCO also didn't have enough to move to lower lows on Monday's sell off
2014-10-14 17:14:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we continue to be left with a classic complex bear market structure in this MCO
2014-10-14 17:14:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would take a full snapback to the zero line here as well to break the back of this declining tops line
2014-10-14 17:14:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's quite a bit of work still yet to do for the buyers
2014-10-14 17:15:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the TM breadth MCSUM now at the -684 level
2014-10-14 17:15:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should see a challenge of the -750 level as soon as Wednesday
2014-10-14 17:15:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-10-14 17:15:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're still getting a bit of a mixed picture overall
2014-10-14 17:15:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which gives the bears the advantage
2014-10-14 17:16:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as until we see better uniformity in the money flow data
2014-10-14 17:16:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're likely to keep seeing high volatile sessions with a downside price pattern bias
2014-10-14 17:16:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the volume McClellan's
2014-10-14 17:17:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that both the NYSE CO and Composite volume MCO's showed a great deal of money leaving this exchange on Monday
2014-10-14 17:17:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as both were close to moving to lower lows
2014-10-14 17:18:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also see that both moved down and through the -500 level over the last 2 days on their respected volume MCSUM's
2014-10-14 17:18:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why prices have had a hard down feeling to them because of this
2014-10-14 17:19:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NASDAQ volume MCO
2014-10-14 17:19:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we did move to lower lows
2014-10-14 17:19:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this was part of the NASDAQ volume MCSUM moving down and through its zero line on Monday
2014-10-14 17:20:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today we saw a continuation of this decline
2014-10-14 17:20:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and have now broken to new yearly lows in this MCSUM
2014-10-14 17:20:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had the same down volume intensity with the NDX volume MCO on Monday
2014-10-14 17:21:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the bulls are still hanging on by a thread here
2014-10-14 17:21:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the NDX volume MCSUM has yet to move down and through its zero line
2014-10-14 17:21:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: coming in today with a +302 reading
2014-10-14 17:21:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is because of this dynamic of being above the MCSUM zero line
2014-10-14 17:22:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we get our window of 2 weeks where a "crash like" event can take place
2014-10-14 17:22:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this point...we may still be right in the middle of
2014-10-14 17:23:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the strong support we see at the NDX volume MCSUM at the zero line
2014-10-14 17:23:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any break below this level is sure to show quite a bit of downside movement in the index itself if it's violated
2014-10-14 17:23:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so take heed
2014-10-14 17:24:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX volume MCO moved to its lowest point of the year and complimented this same low point we saw with breadth on Monday
2014-10-14 17:24:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is what makes an confirmed Elliott 3rd wave in progress
2014-10-14 17:24:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also that...
2014-10-14 17:25:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Monday's extreme here also pushed the SPX volume MCSUM down and through its zero line
2014-10-14 17:25:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so no surprise that we saw a 33 point decline at the end of the day
2014-10-14 17:25:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: new 52 week lows as well in the OEX volume MCO on Monday
2014-10-14 17:26:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the OEX volume MCSUM STILL remains above its zero line with a +282 reading
2014-10-14 17:26:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the likelihood of this MCSUM moving below the -250 level as soon as Wednesday
2014-10-14 17:27:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should be prepared for another possible shake out in co-ordination with this break of support
2014-10-14 17:27:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same with the Dow volume MCSUM
2014-10-14 17:27:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and note how the volume MCO's and MCSUM's are in sync with their breadth cousins here
2014-10-14 17:28:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this then suggests that the downside trend is strong and least for now
2014-10-14 17:28:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID volume MCO saw a new low on Monday
2014-10-14 17:28:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the selling was very heavy on the downside on Monday (maybe margin calls?)
2014-10-14 17:29:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the SML volume MCO diverged again with the new price lows
2014-10-14 17:29:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the SML breadth MCO back at its zero line
2014-10-14 17:29:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would now appear that the worst for this basket of stocks may be behind us for now
2014-10-14 17:29:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meaning
2014-10-14 17:29:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that any further sell off in the large caps might not be so dramatic in the small caps
2014-10-14 17:30:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for this reason
2014-10-14 17:30:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any shorts with this basket should have hard buy stops in place
2014-10-14 17:30:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with sliding stops with any lower price lows that may get caught up in any additional back and fill
2014-10-14 17:31:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and down to a new yearly low as well in the TM volume MCO
2014-10-14 17:31:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the TM volume MCSUM settled below the -250 level today
2014-10-14 17:31:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2014-10-14 17:31:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market seems to be trying its best to unwind here
2014-10-14 17:32:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there seems to be some pushing and pulling going on keeping things from collapsing least for now
2014-10-14 17:32:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yesterday was a typical technical breakdown in the NASDAQ stocks
2014-10-14 17:33:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as our expectation of a break of the August price lows was fulfilled
2014-10-14 17:33:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the volume oscillators are doing
2014-10-14 17:33:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's moved to deeply "climactic" on Monday
2014-10-14 17:34:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we usually see a price bottom in the next two trading days
2014-10-14 17:34:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so by tomorrow
2014-10-14 17:34:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though...
2014-10-14 17:34:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would take something special to make this a real reality given how the market "gave up" today
2014-10-14 17:35:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good news for the short and intermeidate term though
2014-10-14 17:35:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that both the STVO's and VTO's are now "oversold"
2014-10-14 17:35:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we do see things improve after the 1st hour on Wednesday
2014-10-14 17:36:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and given that the near month put players are hoping for more downside to make up for the "time factor" lows in their options
2014-10-14 17:36:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we could see the rest of this week provide a stabilization attempt overall
2014-10-14 17:36:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's see how the TRIN's are doing
2014-10-14 17:37:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .89
2014-10-14 17:37:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.08
2014-10-14 17:37:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: too bad
2014-10-14 17:37:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a more solid bottom would have the Open 10 at above our expected 1.20 reading
2014-10-14 17:38:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: didn't get above 2.00 either on Monday
2014-10-14 17:38:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh wow
2014-10-14 17:38:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we did on the NASDAQ TRIN...looks like 2.60
2014-10-14 17:38:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with today's reading at .85
2014-10-14 17:38:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.20
2014-10-14 17:39:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: .there we go
2014-10-14 17:39:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a 2.60 reading would usually be more bullish than not
2014-10-14 17:39:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but when it comes when you break an area of support
2014-10-14 17:39:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not such a good thing
2014-10-14 17:39:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN got above 2.00 on Monday
2014-10-14 17:40:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and closed today at .81
2014-10-14 17:40:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.16
2014-10-14 17:40:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's nicely "oversold" now
2014-10-14 17:40:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2014-10-14 17:40:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would seem that we have a bit of rotation going on right now
2014-10-14 17:40:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this case
2014-10-14 17:40:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money moving out of shorts in the small caps
2014-10-14 17:41:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now moving into and shorting the large caps with the expectation that it still has a bit to catch up to
2014-10-14 17:41:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this Friday's OPEX
2014-10-14 17:41:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the high Open 10's in the NASDAQ and TM
2014-10-14 17:42:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's a pretty good chance now that we'll move net sideways toward the end of the week
2014-10-14 17:42:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then pick up where we left off early next week
2014-10-14 17:42:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in what would finally be the last flush before a more extended reflex rally would likely be seen
2014-10-14 17:42:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: overall...we remain on a "crash alert"
2014-10-14 17:43:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as many of the MCSUM's that have been above their zero lines for quite a bit of time
2014-10-14 17:43:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now move down and through their zero lines in what should be an extended time to bring intermeidate term balance to the longer term structure
2014-10-14 17:44:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if there's going to be another hard sell off here
2014-10-14 17:44:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it doesn't happen tomorrow
2014-10-14 17:44:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it probably won't be seen until next week
2014-10-14 17:44:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once OPEX is out of the way
2014-10-14 17:44:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check the BETS prelim
2014-10-14 17:44:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one sec
2014-10-14 17:45:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: -40
2014-10-14 17:46:01 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Good to know.. Thanks
2014-10-14 17:46:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "accumulate shorts with protective bullish stops (above market)"
2014-10-14 17:46:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we would need a reading of -45 or better to "accumulate shorts with a bearish bias"
2014-10-14 17:47:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: definitely the lowest level in a while
2014-10-14 17:47:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2014-10-14 17:47:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BTW
2014-10-14 17:47:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Canadian stocks continue to fall apart at the seams
2014-10-14 17:47:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's equal and opposite the strength it had during the summer months
2014-10-14 17:48:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the TSX Ventures Index is really getting hit hard now
2014-10-14 17:48:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and approaching its all time lows
2014-10-14 17:48:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a good thing for the metals and other earth commodities
2014-10-14 17:48:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: quite a move in crude of late, huh?
2014-10-14 17:48:50 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Yes
2014-10-14 17:49:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's what happens when you bid up a market based solely on geopolitical events
2014-10-14 17:49:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the Saudi's are letting this happen
2014-10-14 17:49:29 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I bought gas for $2.86 [smile]
2014-10-14 17:49:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's going to kill the Russians and the Iranians
2014-10-14 17:49:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: finally below $3.00!
2014-10-14 17:49:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're at 3.19
2014-10-14 17:49:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it moved down .06 yesterday
2014-10-14 17:49:51 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: that's great for you
2014-10-14 17:49:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm looking for below $3 next week
2014-10-14 17:50:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know it
2014-10-14 17:50:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: business is horrific here
2014-10-14 17:50:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very, very slow
2014-10-14 17:50:21 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Sorry to hear
2014-10-14 17:50:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: me too
2014-10-14 17:50:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that's business
2014-10-14 17:50:53 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Any Marketing Ideas?
2014-10-14 17:50:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: interest rates on 30 year mortgages are finally moved lower on Monday
2014-10-14 17:51:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: down to 4.375 and 4.25% with zero points right now
2014-10-14 17:51:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for what business?
2014-10-14 17:51:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: [smile]
2014-10-14 17:51:35 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Yours?
2014-10-14 17:51:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we've tried everything
2014-10-14 17:51:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from phone calls
2014-10-14 17:52:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: business, especially on the west coast, is stagnant
2014-10-14 17:52:23 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: There has to be something
2014-10-14 17:52:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I was talking to my property manager of our building today
2014-10-14 17:52:57 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I had a DHL guy tell me today lots of places are closing...
2014-10-14 17:53:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they have half of their rental spaces are late this month for rent
2014-10-14 17:53:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can't force someone to buy when they can't afford to
2014-10-14 17:53:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or don't need
2014-10-14 17:53:31 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Try renting out space?
2014-10-14 17:53:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: forget it
2014-10-14 17:53:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: strip malls are empty
2014-10-14 17:53:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the larger retailers who anchor the majors are having their problems too
2014-10-14 17:54:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at Penny's
2014-10-14 17:54:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at Macy's
2014-10-14 17:54:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even the trendy stores are seeing very little traffic
2014-10-14 17:54:38 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Rent to own? Most don't follow through
2014-10-14 17:55:01 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: I'm thinking out of the box here
2014-10-14 17:55:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the boys and girls under the dome here continue to strangle small business with taxes and new ways to do business
2014-10-14 17:55:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: different here in California Mike
2014-10-14 17:55:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh well
2014-10-14 17:55:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I can't control it
2014-10-14 17:55:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I can only work hard and hope things get some traction
2014-10-14 17:55:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BTW
2014-10-14 17:55:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this also means
2014-10-14 17:56:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the Holiday Shopping Season is not going to be a good one
2014-10-14 17:56:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I think the market is sensing this as well
2014-10-14 17:56:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and, of course
2014-10-14 17:56:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I shared with everyone how business "fell off a cliff" in May
2014-10-14 17:56:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: add 4 months
2014-10-14 17:56:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we are
2014-10-14 17:56:56 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: That and no QE fix?
2014-10-14 17:57:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well..
2014-10-14 17:57:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: every correction on the way up seemed to take place once that version of QE was retired
2014-10-14 17:57:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with money running toward the 10 year note
2014-10-14 17:57:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would think that there will be something else that will come up sooner than later
2014-10-14 17:58:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but first without some hurt
2014-10-14 17:58:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...I have to get going...
2014-10-14 17:58:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx
2014-10-14 17:58:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days
2014-10-14 17:58:37 [Message] sp112358 -> Chat: Have a good evening...
2014-10-14 17:58:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see how things look on Thursday
2014-10-14 17:58:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2014-10-14 17:58:44 [Message] hawk5734 -> Chat: thanks Fib
2014-10-14 17:59:09 [Message] rite01 -> Chat: Thanks Fib and good night all!

Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

Previous Topic | Next Topic

Quick Navigation:

Copyright 2000-2017 Technical Watch