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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2010-10-14 16:00:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2010-10-14 16:00:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2010-10-14 16:00:53 [Message] darris -> Chat: Good, and Google is better!!!
2010-10-14 16:01:00 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: great, thanks
2010-10-14 16:01:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2010-10-14 16:01:11 [Message] darris -> Chat: It is up over 10% from the low print today.
2010-10-14 16:01:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I saw!
2010-10-14 16:01:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another company making BILLIONS in one quarter!
2010-10-14 16:01:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't want anyone to complain about oil companies ever again
2010-10-14 16:02:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and AAPL earnings come out on Monday
2010-10-14 16:02:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can you imagine?
2010-10-14 16:03:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comment before we get started??
2010-10-14 16:04:07 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: wow, lol
2010-10-14 16:04:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: jaw dropping
2010-10-14 16:04:32 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: truly is
2010-10-14 16:04:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it also shows something about market reaction
2010-10-14 16:05:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a lot of what happens after an announcement like this is really dependent on the direction of the trend of money flow
2010-10-14 16:05:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: last quarter...money flow was negative
2010-10-14 16:06:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so stocks generally sold off on good news...no matter how good it was perceived
2010-10-14 16:06:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now money flow is positive
2010-10-14 16:06:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and any surprises remain to the upside
2010-10-14 16:06:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: give me a moment to upload a chart
2010-10-14 16:07:13 [Message] darris -> Chat: With that big a move in Google, expiry might get a little exciting tomorrow
2010-10-14 16:07:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Let's start with the NAAD combo chart - http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat10/naad101410.png
2010-10-14 16:08:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: several things of note
2010-10-14 16:08:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first...and most prominent...is that the NAAD line is now above its 200 day EMA (1% Trend)
2010-10-14 16:08:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this "trend line" is a simple demarcation point between what is bullish or bearish on a longer term basis
2010-10-14 16:09:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so to have this taking place is good constructive evidence that money is finding more and more issues to "invest in"
2010-10-14 16:09:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with this move above the 1% Trend
2010-10-14 16:09:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are now on a "Get Set" buy signal
2010-10-14 16:10:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we're only waiting for the lesser time EMA's to move above this same demarcation line to move into a bullish configuration
2010-10-14 16:10:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NASDAQ breadth MCO at the top of the page
2010-10-14 16:10:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we continue to remain in a coiling formation
2010-10-14 16:10:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like any pattern like this...
2010-10-14 16:11:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should expect that on any break out this coil that it will tend to be robust
2010-10-14 16:11:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM at the bottom
2010-10-14 16:11:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see that we are now just entering our last MCSUM gap resistance zone
2010-10-14 16:12:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the break then in the MCO
2010-10-14 16:12:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: will be in conjunction with either a failure or an upside break above this MCSUM gap zone
2010-10-14 16:12:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near term
2010-10-14 16:12:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation would be for a pause...for the NAAD to snapback to not only the 1% Trend but also the rising 10% and 5% trends
2010-10-14 16:13:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this area of congestion should hold any snapback intact
2010-10-14 16:13:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: call it triple support
2010-10-14 16:13:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now
2010-10-14 16:13:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the market has other plans
2010-10-14 16:14:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that include not needing a test
2010-10-14 16:14:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that wouldn't be a reasonable expectation
2010-10-14 16:14:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you really never know
2010-10-14 16:14:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we are working with things that really haven't happened before
2010-10-14 16:15:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...things continue to improve overall
2010-10-14 16:16:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with today's pause giving a chance for the various MCO's to snapback to what were our overhead horizontal resistance structures that we've been talking about for the last several weeks
2010-10-14 16:17:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if there a fly in the ointment here
2010-10-14 16:17:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the NASDAQ composite price is leading breadth
2010-10-14 16:17:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but given that this is a market of secondary issues
2010-10-14 16:17:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we do tend to see relationships like this a lot of the time
2010-10-14 16:17:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what's important is direction and structure
2010-10-14 16:18:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in this area
2010-10-14 16:18:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls continue to build strength
2010-10-14 16:18:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how far it takes us....? we'll see
2010-10-14 16:18:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2010-10-14 16:19:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO snapped back to its breakout line today
2010-10-14 16:20:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the breakout of yesterday moving the 10% component to higher highs above September period
2010-10-14 16:20:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would suggest that there will be additional days above this horizontal range area on the MCO
2010-10-14 16:21:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which "might" approach these same September highs
2010-10-14 16:21:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near term...the market got a little ahead of itself on the thrust
2010-10-14 16:21:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and today gives us a digestion period to reset the pattern
2010-10-14 16:22:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this MCO now has a nice pattern of bottoms above bottoms controlling its direction
2010-10-14 16:22:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so until this trend is broken, there's no need to play the short side
2010-10-14 16:23:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as any pullback will tend to be not only shallow, but will recoup any losses quick quickly
2010-10-14 16:23:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like the last hour today
2010-10-14 16:23:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same kind of the situation on the composite McClellan data
2010-10-14 16:24:00 [Message] darris -> Chat: It was looking pretty grim this afternoon with BAC and C and JPM down so much
2010-10-14 16:24:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although the 10% Trend here did not move above its September highs
2010-10-14 16:24:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so today's choppiness was also needed to help reset this exchange of stocks as well
2010-10-14 16:25:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE breadth MCSUM now has a reading of +955
2010-10-14 16:25:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: within 45 data points of the +1000 level
2010-10-14 16:25:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should remain on guard to any kind of exhaustion near term
2010-10-14 16:26:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth McClellan Data continues to support new vigor here
2010-10-14 16:26:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the new objective of the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM to move up and near its +500 level
2010-10-14 16:26:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we now have a reading of +327
2010-10-14 16:27:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bar chart wise
2010-10-14 16:27:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we were able to close yesterdays gap up
2010-10-14 16:27:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll classify that gap as a simple pattern gap
2010-10-14 16:27:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (as opposed to a measuring gap...for example)
2010-10-14 16:28:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be an exhaustion gap
2010-10-14 16:28:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the internals don't support the idea of one
2010-10-14 16:29:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually exhaustion gaps occur when the trend direction of breadth of market is already declining
2010-10-14 16:29:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't have that as yet...so the pattern gap is the best option
2010-10-14 16:29:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after breaking back above its zero line yesterday, the NDX breadth MCO has now snapped back to the same line
2010-10-14 16:30:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it should be noted that we did indeed close above the April price highs yesterday
2010-10-14 16:30:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NDX breadth MCSUM
2010-10-14 16:30:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see a definitive "hook" to the structure
2010-10-14 16:31:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if the zero line snapback doesn't hold
2010-10-14 16:31:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might be looking at a MCSUM hook pattern in play
2010-10-14 16:31:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the 21 day close up chart on the side bar
2010-10-14 16:32:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it will be important for this MCSUM to move above the gap area between +875 and +900
2010-10-14 16:32:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be our near term "resistance" zone given the coordinated spike lower in the NDX breadth MCO
2010-10-14 16:33:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we're not able to move above this zone
2010-10-14 16:33:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then we might be in for a 3 week correction of some sort
2010-10-14 16:33:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which...I would like to see
2010-10-14 16:34:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it would give the market time to relieve the current "overbought" extreme of the intermediate trend
2010-10-14 16:34:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that it can pierce through the April highs and not have to worry about a failure
2010-10-14 16:34:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all in a perfect technical world, of course
2010-10-14 16:35:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO also pulled back today
2010-10-14 16:35:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though a little deeper than what one would look for
2010-10-14 16:35:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the SPX bar chart for a moment
2010-10-14 16:35:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you'll see that we had a mid range close on Wednesday
2010-10-14 16:36:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since Tuesday had an up close
2010-10-14 16:36:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation for today was for a down close and that's what we got
2010-10-14 16:36:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these range bars, when they occur, are great trading vehicles for you day traders out there and should always be respected
2010-10-14 16:37:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the SPX breadth MCSUM
2010-10-14 16:37:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we now have a reading of +659
2010-10-14 16:37:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is about 90 data points from the magical +750 level
2010-10-14 16:38:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might get there as soon as Monday at this rate
2010-10-14 16:38:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll then have to see how much more energy the market may or may not attract after that
2010-10-14 16:38:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one scenario, of course
2010-10-14 16:39:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the market rallies on anticipation of AAPL's earnings on Monday given GOOG's release today
2010-10-14 16:39:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then sell off after the news
2010-10-14 16:39:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then again
2010-10-14 16:39:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the MCSUM's as high as they are
2010-10-14 16:39:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we might just increase the speed in which money would be coming into the market as well
2010-10-14 16:39:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: bottom line is that the trend remains to the upside, and any surprises will tend to be in this same direction
2010-10-14 16:40:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapback in the OEX breadth MCO today
2010-10-14 16:40:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCSUM now at +697
2010-10-14 16:41:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCSUM is now at the +961 level
2010-10-14 16:41:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: within striking distance of +1000
2010-10-14 16:41:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also note that yesterday's jump in the Dow breadth MCO
2010-10-14 16:42:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was the breakout point of the Dow breadth MCSUM above its September highs
2010-10-14 16:42:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...there is always a technical order to all of this
2010-10-14 16:43:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: MID breadth MCSUM now at +668
2010-10-14 16:43:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the price pattern within striking distance of its April highs like many of the other indices right now
2010-10-14 16:43:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now..here's something interesting
2010-10-14 16:44:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the SML breadth MCO
2010-10-14 16:44:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and although it also had a snapback today
2010-10-14 16:44:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was by far very shallow
2010-10-14 16:44:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only a -5
2010-10-14 16:45:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and look at the way that this short term stimulus in money flow is having on the SML breadth MCSUM
2010-10-14 16:45:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it now shows a large gaps to the upside
2010-10-14 16:45:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now at a +428
2010-10-14 16:45:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the important juncture will come with the +500 level
2010-10-14 16:45:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we can clear this hurdle...watch out above
2010-10-14 16:46:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the entire market will then be fully saturated
2010-10-14 16:46:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and any kind of stimulus will drive prices up in mass
2010-10-14 16:46:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small snapback on the TM breadth MCO as well
2010-10-14 16:47:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just a technical move at this point
2010-10-14 16:47:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the TM breadth MCSUM now supporting a +657 reading
2010-10-14 16:47:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...the bulls remain with the ball
2010-10-14 16:48:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any further positive breadth plurality should make it easier and easier for prices to move higher
2010-10-14 16:48:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: reason being...we have less and less sellers
2010-10-14 16:48:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the demand factor increases
2010-10-14 16:48:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it...higher asks
2010-10-14 16:49:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although the XLY breadth MCO remains above its zero line
2010-10-14 16:49:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it continues to struggle in doing so
2010-10-14 16:50:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll need to see some fresh money come in here in the next couple of days or we might see a short term shift
2010-10-14 16:50:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the XLP breadth MCO
2010-10-14 16:50:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's looking good
2010-10-14 16:51:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice that the XLP breadth MCSUM is just under the gap area we talked about earlier on the NDX
2010-10-14 16:51:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so as soon as tomorrow, we could see another positive push in money flow
2010-10-14 16:52:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE breadth MCO continues to chop around above its +50 level
2010-10-14 16:52:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with tops beneath tops controlling the near term pattern structure
2010-10-14 16:53:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any comments on the XLE breadth MCSUM?
2010-10-14 16:53:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (let's see if anyone is awake )
2010-10-14 16:53:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any one see anything in relation to the +250 level?
2010-10-14 16:54:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...continue to snooze
2010-10-14 16:54:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...we gapped up above this critical level yesterday
2010-10-14 16:54:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not only because of the level that's important
2010-10-14 16:55:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we also took out the previous highs seen on the chart back in August
2010-10-14 16:55:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then suggest that we still have some rally room in the XLE...and energy stocks overall
2010-10-14 16:56:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF continues to have its problems moving above the $15 price level
2010-10-14 16:56:18 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: odd, the MCO's don't look as well structured as the others
2010-10-14 16:56:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the XLF breadth MCO suggested yesterday that it's only a matter of time before doing so
2010-10-14 16:56:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF MCO?
2010-10-14 16:56:39 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: xle
2010-10-14 16:56:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...back to that one..one sec
2010-10-14 16:57:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nope...it doesn't have the texture that we would like to have
2010-10-14 16:57:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but in lieu of that
2010-10-14 16:57:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the longer that the MCO stays above the zero line
2010-10-14 16:57:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and continues to trace out this complexity in pattern
2010-10-14 16:58:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the better the odds that prices will be able to maintain their own buoyancy
2010-10-14 16:58:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that it was a late starter
2010-10-14 16:58:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be its just playing catch up
2010-10-14 16:58:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or better put
2010-10-14 16:59:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was the sector in which was deemed undervalued and money has been coming in non stop in an effort to find fair value in the issues being traded
2010-10-14 16:59:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2010-10-14 16:59:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we didn't break above the +250 level, I would be more concerned
2010-10-14 17:00:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but since we were able to hold this complex pattern to allow the intermediate trend to gather strength here
2010-10-14 17:00:22 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks, oddly as well, it filled its gaps first-I was wondering if it was front running the others
2010-10-14 17:00:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would just follow the MCSUM's indication at this juncture
2010-10-14 17:00:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks
2010-10-14 17:00:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: np
2010-10-14 17:00:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was a good point
2010-10-14 17:01:06 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thank you, trying
2010-10-14 17:01:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to the XLF breadth MCO
2010-10-14 17:01:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still have a nice series of bottoms above bottoms in place
2010-10-14 17:01:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but like we talked about on Tuesday
2010-10-14 17:02:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we can get the XLF breadth MCSUM to break above its late September highs
2010-10-14 17:02:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there won't be enough energy to break above the $15 level
2010-10-14 17:02:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be tomorrow though
2010-10-14 17:02:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that the financials were hit pretty good
2010-10-14 17:03:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which I'm sure pushed the remaining, frustrated bears to say..."finally"
2010-10-14 17:04:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now that they're in...we can now whip higher...and then have the power to push above $15 with a "just as quick" cover of these same shorts
2010-10-14 17:04:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a simple merchandising ploy
2010-10-14 17:05:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV breadth MCSUM moved above its end September highs yesterday
2010-10-14 17:05:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with an obligatory gap
2010-10-14 17:05:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI breadth MCO continues to struggle here
2010-10-14 17:06:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: giving everything back that it got yesterday
2010-10-14 17:06:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's now at the zero line again
2010-10-14 17:06:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI breadth MCSUM is now at +467
2010-10-14 17:06:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so within shouting distance of +500
2010-10-14 17:07:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls really need to pay attention to both the XLY and XLI group of stocks
2010-10-14 17:07:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we can't get the industrials to attract money
2010-10-14 17:07:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're then going to have to rely on tech here to pull us up
2010-10-14 17:07:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which ...they have been for the last several weeks by and large
2010-10-14 17:08:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it would be "healthier" if the industrials were showing some strength as well
2010-10-14 17:08:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with that said
2010-10-14 17:09:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we did see good strength in the transports yesterday
2010-10-14 17:09:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we found out a couple of weeks ago
2010-10-14 17:09:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are some transportation stocks in the XLI
2010-10-14 17:10:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wonder how many traders thought that there was "no way" that we would see the April price highs again back in the spring?
2010-10-14 17:10:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but here we are...within striking distance
2010-10-14 17:11:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB went to new 52 week highs yesterday
2010-10-14 17:11:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and snapped back to the breakout today
2010-10-14 17:12:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this sector also gave up all of what it got today...and we're right back to the zero line
2010-10-14 17:12:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK data continues to look good here
2010-10-14 17:12:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however
2010-10-14 17:12:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK breadth MCO still hasn't been able to move above its end September highs
2010-10-14 17:13:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLU continues to chop around with no apparent direction known
2010-10-14 17:14:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is keeping the XLU breadth MCSUM just moving sideways above the +750 level
2010-10-14 17:14:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking quickly at the volume McClellan's
2010-10-14 17:14:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our series of bottoms above bottoms in the CO NYSE volume MCO was broken today
2010-10-14 17:15:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and notice that the CO NYSE volume MCSUM gapped above +750 yesterday
2010-10-14 17:15:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe an exhaustion here?
2010-10-14 17:15:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll know better tomorrow
2010-10-14 17:16:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite NYSE breadth MCO is showing better strength here
2010-10-14 17:16:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meaning that the interest rate sensitive issues had a better day today than the commons
2010-10-14 17:16:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also the gap above the +750 level on the NYSE volume MCSUM
2010-10-14 17:17:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we remain in sync here
2010-10-14 17:17:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and meanwhile
2010-10-14 17:18:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ volume MCSUM is also above its +750 level
2010-10-14 17:18:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: talk about synchronicity!
2010-10-14 17:18:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is what is meant by "being in gear"
2010-10-14 17:18:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the engine is currently running smoothly
2010-10-14 17:19:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this would suggest that it's unlikely that we'll see an abrupt turn around
2010-10-14 17:19:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX volume MCSUM is also above +750 now
2010-10-14 17:20:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the OEX and SPX volume MCSUM's are also in sync with each other
2010-10-14 17:20:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow volume MCO though, isn't
2010-10-14 17:20:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact, it's below its zero line
2010-10-14 17:21:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the Dow volume MCO components, however, and we see that they remain above their zero line
2010-10-14 17:21:47 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: hook on the Dow volume MCSUM?
2010-10-14 17:21:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...correction
2010-10-14 17:22:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be
2010-10-14 17:22:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a break below the last bottom would trigger it
2010-10-14 17:22:29 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks
2010-10-14 17:22:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I find it hard to believe when the indices with larger components are not showing this same structure
2010-10-14 17:22:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what could be happening here
2010-10-14 17:23:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that money is moving out of the cream stocks and into the NASDAQ and SML
2010-10-14 17:23:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the data supports this
2010-10-14 17:23:23 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: true, but the NDX and NAS have no texture underneath on volume MCO's
2010-10-14 17:23:49 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: where is their support, then?
2010-10-14 17:23:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but texture is not...let me preface this first
2010-10-14 17:24:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I have made it a point to suggest that the NASDAQ is made up of secondary issues
2010-10-14 17:24:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you're dealing with issues that have no earnings
2010-10-14 17:24:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no dividends
2010-10-14 17:24:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and only the dream of future profits
2010-10-14 17:25:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money will tend to rush in and out of these issues as one would spend a night with a stripper in Vegas
2010-10-14 17:25:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they tend to be attractive initially
2010-10-14 17:25:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they tend to also lose their luster just as quickly
2010-10-14 17:25:44 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ah
2010-10-14 17:25:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that we have a rather unstable economy overall
2010-10-14 17:26:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I am willing to allow a lack of texture in these secondary markets
2010-10-14 17:26:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't get me wrong though
2010-10-14 17:26:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our preference should be that of texture
2010-10-14 17:26:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remember also
2010-10-14 17:27:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the laggards here over the last several months have been the NASDAQ composite and the energy sector
2010-10-14 17:27:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a matter of playing catch up here is..."allowed"
2010-10-14 17:27:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: i guess my worry is the lack of structure on the volume of NAZ and NDX, combined with the possible hooks, combined with summation location-add the sadder look of the industrials...
2010-10-14 17:27:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as the MCO is able to maintain its structure above its zero line...
2010-10-14 17:27:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: understood
2010-10-14 17:28:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we also have the broader market looking good here
2010-10-14 17:28:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think it's important to always remember
2010-10-14 17:28:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we have quite a gift here in being able to review all of the indices with the McClellan tools
2010-10-14 17:28:52 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: superb!
2010-10-14 17:29:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the first and foremost index, which will give us our true signals, will be with the composite NYSE data
2010-10-14 17:29:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have only had access to everything else (basically) for only 4 or 5 years now
2010-10-14 17:29:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not really enough time to get an historic feel here
2010-10-14 17:29:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less
2010-10-14 17:29:53 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I think my issue is that the possible problems lie with the leaders, so far
2010-10-14 17:30:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we are currently under the blanket of the highest amount of liquidity ever seen (and felt) in the history of mankind
2010-10-14 17:30:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what were leaders become laggards
2010-10-14 17:30:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: laggards become the new leaders
2010-10-14 17:30:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there is, and will always be, rotation
2010-10-14 17:30:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the bigger picture
2010-10-14 17:31:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: most advancing price structures only begin when there enough liquidity out there to rise up ALL boats
2010-10-14 17:31:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the furthest boats in this marina are those secondary issues
2010-10-14 17:31:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as this liquidity quotient starts to recede
2010-10-14 17:32:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these secondary issues are the first to feel that
2010-10-14 17:32:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the boats closer to the open water, the primary stocks, will still be able to float in spite of the these same boats being dry-docked
2010-10-14 17:32:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in other words
2010-10-14 17:32:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it just doesn't turn on a dime
2010-10-14 17:32:53 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I love the big picture, just don't care much for the shorter term-after about Monday or Tuesday-and still have a bit of a problem looking at the NDX as secondaries-they are beginning to earn billions,,,lol
2010-10-14 17:33:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the current levels..it's going to take at least a year to see anything below the water line
2010-10-14 17:33:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: got a suggestion for you...
2010-10-14 17:33:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when you look at the NDX
2010-10-14 17:33:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: close one eye
2010-10-14 17:33:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will look better
2010-10-14 17:33:54 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: lol
2010-10-14 17:34:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look...we would all love to be in a position that moves up 10% after hours
2010-10-14 17:34:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but those issues are slim and hard to come by
2010-10-14 17:34:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I guess it's a matter of what your in this game for
2010-10-14 17:35:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I heard a couple of things about AAPL today that I found interesting
2010-10-14 17:35:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: first...it's the only top ten high cap US stock that is NOT in the Dow
2010-10-14 17:36:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CNBC did a "what if"
2010-10-14 17:36:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and found that if AAPL was in the Dow
2010-10-14 17:36:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow would be at 11,900
2010-10-14 17:36:30 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: wow
2010-10-14 17:36:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it is a monster
2010-10-14 17:36:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: secondly
2010-10-14 17:37:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the value of AAPL stock is as big as the country of South Africa
2010-10-14 17:37:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and
2010-10-14 17:37:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if AAPL were a country
2010-10-14 17:37:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would be the 16th largest country in the world
2010-10-14 17:37:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: whew!
2010-10-14 17:37:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not bad for a company who almost went out of business 10 years ago
2010-10-14 17:38:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I can't wait to hear the earnings on Monday
2010-10-14 17:38:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prediction
2010-10-14 17:38:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I smell a stock split
2010-10-14 17:39:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...where was I?
2010-10-14 17:39:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh yea
2010-10-14 17:39:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: money is pouring into the MID and SML now
2010-10-14 17:40:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it would be highly unlikely that the market is going to see any important top short term
2010-10-14 17:40:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and no matter if we do set off a MCSUM hook
2010-10-14 17:40:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember that we're still high enough in the MCSUM's that any downside trending price action isn't likely
2010-10-14 17:40:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would be choppy at best
2010-10-14 17:41:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so although the pattern is there...it's just...there
2010-10-14 17:41:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and...gee whiz...we ARE "overbought"
2010-10-14 17:41:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: why not a hook here?
2010-10-14 17:41:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls have got to be tired
2010-10-14 17:42:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they've done a ton of work here
2010-10-14 17:42:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the bears are nowhere to be found
2010-10-14 17:42:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are again neutral
2010-10-14 17:43:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are a little on the "overbought" side
2010-10-14 17:43:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's as well...but not any indication of a top here
2010-10-14 17:43:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2010-10-14 17:43:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.43
2010-10-14 17:43:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .92
2010-10-14 17:44:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll call it neutral
2010-10-14 17:44:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...still a lot of nervous Nellie's out there, huh?
2010-10-14 17:44:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: amazing
2010-10-14 17:44:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.24
2010-10-14 17:44:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .86
2010-10-14 17:45:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Total Market TRIN at 1.26
2010-10-14 17:45:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .89 3
2010-10-14 17:45:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: neutral
2010-10-14 17:46:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing intuitive on the put/call ratios
2010-10-14 17:46:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyone trade options?
2010-10-14 17:46:25 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure, every day
2010-10-14 17:46:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how are the call premiums now?
2010-10-14 17:46:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: high?
2010-10-14 17:46:44 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2010-10-14 17:47:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as high as January?
2010-10-14 17:47:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (if you can remember)
2010-10-14 17:47:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: not sure, but very high
2010-10-14 17:47:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very high...
2010-10-14 17:47:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good
2010-10-14 17:47:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: higher than August?
2010-10-14 17:47:52 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2010-10-14 17:48:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means?
2010-10-14 17:48:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (Elliott wise)
2010-10-14 17:48:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 3rd wave
2010-10-14 17:48:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will ALWAYS have your highest option premiums in 3rd waves
2010-10-14 17:49:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with these same premiums shrinking in wave 5
2010-10-14 17:49:16 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: absolutely
2010-10-14 17:49:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and, of course, that's a big "duh" given the amplitude of the September/October rally
2010-10-14 17:49:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but for folks who don't know
2010-10-14 17:50:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is what an Elliott third wave looks like
2010-10-14 17:50:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not a C
2010-10-14 17:50:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is strictly an impulsive price structure or "wave"
2010-10-14 17:50:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also know this to be a 3rd wave because
2010-10-14 17:50:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will ALWAYS see your greatest extremes in both breadth and volume
2010-10-14 17:50:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: check and double check
2010-10-14 17:51:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and under this assumption
2010-10-14 17:51:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even if we do top out near term
2010-10-14 17:51:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there will be another round of higher highs
2010-10-14 17:51:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means
2010-10-14 17:51:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the April highs will eventually be taken out
2010-10-14 17:51:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be now
2010-10-14 17:51:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be in November
2010-10-14 17:51:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there's a high degree of confidence that this will happen
2010-10-14 17:52:12 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I have a crazy notion we are near the top of 1 of the 3
2010-10-14 17:52:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and will do so before any bearish corrective move worth trading
2010-10-14 17:52:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could be Lew
2010-10-14 17:52:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that was one of our scenarios in September
2010-10-14 17:52:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could you imagine 3 of 3?
2010-10-14 17:52:52 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sure can
2010-10-14 17:52:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2010-10-14 17:53:01 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: it fits....
2010-10-14 17:53:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I don't think you really can
2010-10-14 17:53:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at it this way
2010-10-14 17:53:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how much of a percentage price move have we seen since the August lows?
2010-10-14 17:53:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 11%?
2010-10-14 17:54:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wave 3 of 3 would tend to be 1.618 times that
2010-10-14 17:54:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 18%
2010-10-14 17:54:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (minimally)
2010-10-14 17:54:39 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I think in this scenario you need to expect Dow 20K plus-I'll be hard to surprise
2010-10-14 17:54:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wave 3 would also break above the April highs
2010-10-14 17:54:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a devaluation in the USD
2010-10-14 17:55:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 40,000 is possible
2010-10-14 17:55:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: heck...Don's 100,000 is possible
2010-10-14 17:55:16 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: WOW
2010-10-14 17:55:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it may not be valued as such
2010-10-14 17:55:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the idea here
2010-10-14 17:55:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is to keep up with the rate of inflation
2010-10-14 17:55:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how about this?
2010-10-14 17:56:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: add AAPL to the Dow...decrease the divisor again..and trash the dollar
2010-10-14 17:56:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how high IS high?
2010-10-14 17:56:37 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sweet
2010-10-14 17:56:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and meanwhile
2010-10-14 17:56:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bears will say it's all smoke and mirrors
2010-10-14 17:56:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: won't have anything to do with it
2010-10-14 17:57:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it goes higher and higher
2010-10-14 17:57:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the value of the dollar goes lower and lower
2010-10-14 17:57:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they're left with nothing
2010-10-14 17:57:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: literally
2010-10-14 17:57:27 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ouch
2010-10-14 17:57:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yup...ouch is right
2010-10-14 17:57:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why
2010-10-14 17:57:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should never care what direction the market moves
2010-10-14 17:57:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only that we ride the wave the best we can
2010-10-14 17:58:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: accumulating wealth is the only objective
2010-10-14 17:58:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for you never know how much wealth you're really going to need just to be "comfortable"
2010-10-14 17:58:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...
2010-10-14 17:58:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one day at a time
2010-10-14 17:58:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...the trend is up until proven otherwise
2010-10-14 17:58:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's the bulls ball to lose
2010-10-14 17:59:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we can get a breakout in XLF
2010-10-14 17:59:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is really going to shift gears into overdrive
2010-10-14 17:59:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2010-10-14 17:59:53 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thanks for all your help. much appreciated
2010-10-14 18:00:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: stay focused
2010-10-14 18:00:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have the market behind you
2010-10-14 18:00:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until the MCSUM's turn lower
2010-10-14 18:00:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's really as easy a play as one gets in this business
2010-10-14 18:01:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...if there's nothing else...
2010-10-14 18:01:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2010-10-14 18:01:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2010-10-14 18:01:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll meet up again on Tuesday
2010-10-14 18:01:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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