All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.


PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at
http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm




Support Technical Watch!
Buy from our Book Store!
Register Calendar Latest Topics
 
 
 


Note: This topic is locked. No new replies will be accepted.


Reply
  Author   Comment  
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,491
Reply with quote  #1 
2008-10-14 19:00:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good day
2008-10-14 19:00:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how is everyone?
2008-10-14 19:00:44 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: hi dave
2008-10-14 19:01:23 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: OK,,,surviving....but not catching full range of days
2008-10-14 19:01:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: everyone enjoy the short covering rally yesterday?
2008-10-14 19:01:32 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: i read your thurs chat today
2008-10-14 19:01:34 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: dead on - perfect wave 4
2008-10-14 19:01:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: off by a day or two
2008-10-14 19:02:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: crash events can sometimes be tricky...they are generally news driven at this stage
2008-10-14 19:02:24 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: like retail sales, or jpm earnings or ppi tomorrow
2008-10-14 19:02:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be - you never know
2008-10-14 19:02:48 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: dave, question for ya
2008-10-14 19:02:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2008-10-14 19:03:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: fire away
2008-10-14 19:03:24 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Yes, Do we retest 840 or up up and away from here?
2008-10-14 19:03:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what do you think there Mark?
2008-10-14 19:04:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: did everyone see the Elliott count I posted last night?
2008-10-14 19:04:06 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I think retest.....but not sure why....kind of oversold still
2008-10-14 19:04:17 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: no
2008-10-14 19:04:27 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: everyone keeps talking about how the 8 banks the fed is backing that they are stocks that should be bought b/c betting against them, is betting against the gov.........personally i think thats poopoo, what do you think? fed backing means, jpm, gs, c, wfc, etc... can't go down.........massively..........thoughts?
2008-10-14 19:04:33 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: have not looked todays internals
2008-10-14 19:04:39 [Message] locus -> Main Room: Think MCO needs divergence so retest
2008-10-14 19:04:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://www.technicalwatch.com/forum08/elliottspx101308.png
2008-10-14 19:05:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything is possible
2008-10-14 19:05:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the real question (which might help answering the question) is...
2008-10-14 19:05:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: have you seen anything in your life that, when the government gets involved, becomes OK?
2008-10-14 19:05:56 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: i love you dave.........in a technical analysis sense........thats exactly same count
2008-10-14 19:06:48 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: that count leaves so much room for gyration
2008-10-14 19:07:02 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: sub 4 over, sub 5 now, then real 4 up then real 5 down
2008-10-14 19:07:04 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: NUTS
2008-10-14 19:07:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...we still have a series of 4's and 5's ahead of us
2008-10-14 19:07:21 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: then another 4 and 5 - it's crazy
2008-10-14 19:07:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: naw...it's a money making situation
2008-10-14 19:07:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a crash is one of the easiest times to make money - all you have to do is slow it down...technically speaking...keep it simple
2008-10-14 19:08:28 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: dave, does the next 4 compute to higher or lower than this 4?
2008-10-14 19:08:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sorry...lost
2008-10-14 19:08:49 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: ok
2008-10-14 19:08:52 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: me lost too
2008-10-14 19:08:56 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: we put or are putting in iv, then v, then rally to (4)
2008-10-14 19:09:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let me see if I understand and can answer your question
2008-10-14 19:09:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we're in the process of Minute 4 with minute 5 to come
2008-10-14 19:09:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this will complete Minor 3 - Minor 4 should find resistance in this same area - Minor 5 a lower low
2008-10-14 19:10:03 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: and what about a big 4
2008-10-14 19:10:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that will complete that structure - Intermediate 3
2008-10-14 19:10:11 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: same as other 4's?
2008-10-14 19:10:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: big?
2008-10-14 19:10:21 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: the largest of the three 4's?
2008-10-14 19:10:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they all resemble each other
2008-10-14 19:10:47 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: all same area?
2008-10-14 19:10:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: though each degree higher will give different Fibonacci objectives since your dealing with higher degree start and finish points
2008-10-14 19:11:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: probably not
2008-10-14 19:11:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's say, for example, that Minute wave 5 reaches the 724
2008-10-14 19:11:26 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: So, what do all those 3 and 4 say about 840 basis SPX? ....for those of us that don't speak E
2008-10-14 19:11:45 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: its says we go lower than 840 tm
2008-10-14 19:12:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a .382 retracement would give us a lower upside objective
2008-10-14 19:12:02 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: That much more clear to non E speaker....thanks
2008-10-14 19:12:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and for TM
2008-10-14 19:12:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: every pattern sequence builds on the other
2008-10-14 19:12:31 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: dave, you think minute 4 is finished?
2008-10-14 19:12:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is the same thing that we watch for in simple analysis
2008-10-14 19:12:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Elliott only "labels" where we are in this same price pattern structure
2008-10-14 19:12:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the upside portion is...yes
2008-10-14 19:13:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would look for a triangle here
2008-10-14 19:13:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so "A" up is done
2008-10-14 19:13:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: now in "B" down
2008-10-14 19:13:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and so on
2008-10-14 19:13:18 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: really?
2008-10-14 19:13:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-10-14 19:13:27 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: so you think minute 4 still has a c up
2008-10-14 19:13:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but since we're dealing with Minor wave 3, it will be fast
2008-10-14 19:13:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if a triangle - yes
2008-10-14 19:14:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but Minute C will end at a lower high than "A"
2008-10-14 19:14:09 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: that was next question
2008-10-14 19:14:10 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: lol
2008-10-14 19:14:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: think symmetrical triangle
2008-10-14 19:14:16 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: gotcha
2008-10-14 19:14:22 [Message] locus -> Main Room: yes alternation w/ ii being a sharp up
2008-10-14 19:14:22 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: one last wave question
2008-10-14 19:14:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a series of lower highs, and higher lows, moving into an apex
2008-10-14 19:14:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sure
2008-10-14 19:14:35 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: anything you see about a 3 extension in terms of psychology?
2008-10-14 19:14:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: low probability with the over extended readings on the MCO
2008-10-14 19:15:00 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: ok
2008-10-14 19:15:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in terms of psychology, wave 5 will take care of that with the VIX diverging, and the TRIN peaking out, as well as, the internals
2008-10-14 19:15:48 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: so the largest point drop in the symmetrical triangle should be tomorrow before the breakdown
2008-10-14 19:15:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but it won't end the larger sequence from last years highs
2008-10-14 19:16:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in a day or so, yes
2008-10-14 19:16:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...this is a correctional pattern of a declining impulse
2008-10-14 19:16:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and should be choppy as both sides battle it out
2008-10-14 19:16:35 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: so if we tank tomorrow, then minute 4 done, and into minute 5?
2008-10-14 19:16:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: some thinking that the government is on the ball, and all is well - the other looking at the earnings....fundamentals...and discounting the 1st quarter of 2009
2008-10-14 19:17:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no
2008-10-14 19:17:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if we tank tomorrow, only wave "B" will be done
2008-10-14 19:17:20 [Message] locus -> Main Room: b wave of 3 can be a new low
2008-10-14 19:17:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: IF this is a triangle as I suspect
2008-10-14 19:17:31 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: call buyers today in the first half hour outnumbered put buyers 2 to 1 on the open, crazy that they're buying calls 1900 pts off the lows of friday
2008-10-14 19:17:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it could locus, but unlikely
2008-10-14 19:17:55 [Message] locus -> Main Room: yes unlikely opex is here
2008-10-14 19:17:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...typical conditioning of 4th waves
2008-10-14 19:17:58 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: well i guess when i said tank, i was talking about crash like event
2008-10-14 19:18:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: nope...that will be in wave 5
2008-10-14 19:19:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Replace bear for bull, and down for up - "4th waves ''come out of the blue'' just when no one expects them and just when everyone thinks that the market can go nowhere but up. This is usually caused by a news related item that was prevalent during the previous bear market. The psychology of the 4th wave is that those who didn't sell back at wave 2 will now be seemingly justified in sticking with those same convictions. This mentality, as well as the momentum in which wave 3 brought, basically sets a floor for this correction, and why this structure tends to be shallow in its overall pull back. Technically, fourth waves tend to take out the internal lows made during wave 2 thereby confirming that wave 3 has indeed ended and will not turn into an extension. Once there is a basic resolution to whatever the problem was that led to the halt of the previous advance, this is where wave 5 begins."
2008-10-14 19:19:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all is well, right?
2008-10-14 19:20:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market can once again move higher, right?
2008-10-14 19:20:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what was a problem before, is now being taken care, right?
2008-10-14 19:20:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is fourth wave psychology
2008-10-14 19:20:28 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Hank and Ben on the job...don't worry....be happy
2008-10-14 19:20:33 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: yep
2008-10-14 19:20:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: exactly
2008-10-14 19:20:54 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: wave 5 will be a price move to the downside?
2008-10-14 19:21:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the best thing about crashes is that this is where you really notice how impulsive structures are characterized by the media
2008-10-14 19:21:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes hiker
2008-10-14 19:21:18 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: ty
2008-10-14 19:21:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have yet to finish the series
2008-10-14 19:21:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we have only seen the mid point - the most destructive and head turning portion
2008-10-14 19:22:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the "point of recognition" that the trend has turned
2008-10-14 19:22:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: very important sentiment concept here, and why Elliott is so useful in this relationship
2008-10-14 19:22:29 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Can we crash with MCSUMs at the lows?
2008-10-14 19:22:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not so much in the way of trying to label a structure, but it's with what the back drop is during these stages
2008-10-14 19:23:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we can't "crash", but we can certainly push aggressively lower
2008-10-14 19:23:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look at last week - what could have taken place in a day (like 1987 when the MCSUM's were closer to their zero lines) we were able to accomplish the same percentage loss over a period of a week
2008-10-14 19:24:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a multi day crash, not a single day event
2008-10-14 19:24:22 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Would you call last week churn lower?
2008-10-14 19:24:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would
2008-10-14 19:24:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: were there circuit breakers hit - did the market go down without a fight??
2008-10-14 19:24:56 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: MCSUM was actually pretty low at start of last week
2008-10-14 19:25:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...and this was the reason why we crashed in slow motion
2008-10-14 19:25:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the objective was met
2008-10-14 19:25:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember a week ago Thursday?
2008-10-14 19:25:39 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: dave, how long what a minute 4 triangle last for in this environment?
2008-10-14 19:26:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: less than a week...but it is a triangle, and they can be frustrating
2008-10-14 19:26:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one way to measure time in Elliott is to use the same Fibonacci ratios that you use to approximate retracement
2008-10-14 19:26:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so if we refer back to the chart
2008-10-14 19:27:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how many trading days did it take for the market to decline from the wave ii top - 8?
2008-10-14 19:28:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let's say 8 (another Fib number, btw)
2008-10-14 19:28:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if we take 8 days and multiply it by .382, we get 3 days
2008-10-14 19:29:03 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: i see, so a tank tomorrow could lead to a late day rally
2008-10-14 19:29:08 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: every day
2008-10-14 19:29:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so you have decide when we bottomed
2008-10-14 19:29:13 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: same for 3 days
2008-10-14 19:29:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...sell off in the morning, rally into the close - OR - sell off on Wednesday followed by a Thursday rally
2008-10-14 19:29:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: keeping the majority from selling...all is good
2008-10-14 19:30:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then we have to consider that there might be a "put" floor below us which expire on Friday
2008-10-14 19:30:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so this could extend the correction, and why I favor a triangle here
2008-10-14 19:30:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after expiration, then we can go about the business of finishing off Minor 3 next week
2008-10-14 19:31:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all in a perfect Elliott world, of course
2008-10-14 19:31:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look at today
2008-10-14 19:31:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: up 400 Dow points at the open - intraday lows was down 250 or so - and then closed unchanged
2008-10-14 19:32:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: to Aunt Minnie and Uncle Charlie, the market held its record gains from Monday - all is good
2008-10-14 19:32:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but we know from this intraday volatility, we have some ways to go before all is done
2008-10-14 19:32:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if we use Elliott, we also know this to be true
2008-10-14 19:33:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look at the chart again - do you see the Hist MACD I overlayed on the chart?
2008-10-14 19:33:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this shows you the momentum of the move and, so far, it's taken some sort of divergent action BEFORE we see some sort of rally
2008-10-14 19:34:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you also have the MCO begging for a retest, and with Minute wave 5, that would be what the doctor ordered as it would satisfy these divergent forecasts
2008-10-14 19:34:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: from there, the pressure will be off a bit
2008-10-14 19:35:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so during Minor 4 we should see our full snapback to the MCO zero line (which is always our technical expectation)
2008-10-14 19:35:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: from there, once we find some near term balance, then Minor wave 5 of Intermediate 3 can begin
2008-10-14 19:36:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: chop around for a month or so for Intermediate 4, and then finish off intermediate 5 and our eventual buy point
2008-10-14 19:36:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...all in a perfect Elliott world - subject to change
2008-10-14 19:36:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bottom line - it's going to take time to, like I referred to in a post over the weekend, for the market to find it's legs and stand again
2008-10-14 19:37:43 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: Are you thinking 724 before we chop around for month...or 724 as the bottom ultimately?
2008-10-14 19:37:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sentiment wise, confidence is still a problem
2008-10-14 19:38:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and will be even more so as the last series of 4's and 5's unwind
2008-10-14 19:38:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: TM - the price objectives were taken as approximate levels based only on the measuring gap
2008-10-14 19:38:34 [Message] locus -> Main Room: dave w4 should not break the highest pt of w4 of one lesser degree?
2008-10-14 19:38:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I haven't really sat down and played with the Fib ratios at this point...no sense to
2008-10-14 19:38:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: correct locus
2008-10-14 19:39:01 [Message] locus -> Main Room: thanks
2008-10-14 19:39:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the market should continue heavy for a while
2008-10-14 19:39:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: thinking, of course, that those who were told that it was "too late" to sell, will feel the building pressure of doing so
2008-10-14 19:39:57 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: how is this time different from July 24th 2002 in Elliott terms? or other indicator terms?
2008-10-14 19:40:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: those who are in this room are far more sophisticated than the average investor
2008-10-14 19:40:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: each market sequence is as unique as a snowflake...blah blah blah
2008-10-14 19:40:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it's dangerous to look for exact fractals of any kind - good to use as a guide - but it's very important to let the marketplace do the talking
2008-10-14 19:41:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: when it's done, it will tell us - the flow of money will tell us just like it has before
2008-10-14 19:41:37 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: any rules on where the next level of the triangle would be? the rally off Fridays lows was 1900 dow pts, is there a range for this move like, like 1000 pts down?
2008-10-14 19:42:16 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: a 50% retrace?
2008-10-14 19:42:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: each sequence of a symmetrical triangle is approximately .618 times the length of the previous pattern structure
2008-10-14 19:42:33 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: really?
2008-10-14 19:42:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...let's do some figuring here
2008-10-14 19:42:45 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: wow, .618 is a ton down
2008-10-14 19:42:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: from Friday's bottom, to today's top, how many SPX points did we move?
2008-10-14 19:43:17 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: on your chart it looks like a hundred, but i thought it had been more
2008-10-14 19:43:59 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: 205 pts - give or take
2008-10-14 19:44:01 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: 204
2008-10-14 19:44:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...205 points...intraday?
2008-10-14 19:44:15 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: yes
2008-10-14 19:44:21 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: close nuf
2008-10-14 19:44:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: give me the bottom and top ticks - round it up
2008-10-14 19:45:03 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: 839.8
2008-10-14 19:45:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK - and?
2008-10-14 19:45:30 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: 1044.31
2008-10-14 19:45:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK - so 1044 - 840 = 204 points
2008-10-14 19:46:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 204 x .618 = 126 points
2008-10-14 19:46:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: take this away from 1044 and you get an objective of 918
2008-10-14 19:46:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: close only will give you slightly different results, so you have to decide which is better for your trading
2008-10-14 19:47:05 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: 72 pts from todays close
2008-10-14 19:47:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: taking it further, and assuming we hit a bullseye of 918...
2008-10-14 19:48:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 1044 - 918 = 126 points x .618 = 78 points for wave C or 996
2008-10-14 19:48:05 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: fib tool calculator is easy to use - http://www.mypivots.com/calculators/fibonacci-calculator.aspx
2008-10-14 19:48:12 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: .618 x 126 pts would give you next
2008-10-14 19:48:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which would prove to be a good stopping spot for those who like round numbers
2008-10-14 19:48:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then you can figure the rest...each segment will then move smaller and smaller into the apex
2008-10-14 19:49:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: want to calculate wave 5?
2008-10-14 19:49:31 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: YES !!
2008-10-14 19:49:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the first objective would be the price equality of wave 1; the second would be .618 times the length of wave 1; the third would be 1.618 times the length of wave 1
2008-10-14 19:50:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: being that we're also in the midst of a three of three, the most destructive objective would be 2.618 times the length of wave 1
2008-10-14 19:51:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in all cases, the objective for 5th waves are based on wave 1's range and not wave 3's
2008-10-14 19:51:23 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: That 996 would keep everybody in the game too
2008-10-14 19:51:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...
2008-10-14 19:51:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: especially since it's right below yesterday's close
2008-10-14 19:51:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which was .382 times the length of Minute wave 3
2008-10-14 19:51:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I personally like to use close only figures as it filters out the garbage of the day
2008-10-14 19:52:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...how about close only - last Friday's close was 899...yesterday 1003...right?
2008-10-14 19:52:55 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: that first decline of the triangle would get lots to think of a "retest" too, a successful one, especially if we see that spx 918 and a rally up to almost a 1000
2008-10-14 19:53:09 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: Two of the biggest hedge funds in the world stopped their operations and had to liquidate $55B worth of assets last week. One will come back in January.
2008-10-14 19:53:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which would then give you a "B" wave objective of 938
2008-10-14 19:53:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so, between close only and intraday, 928 is the mid point - so we then have to look around and see how things are shaping up at this level...maybe on the hourly chart
2008-10-14 19:55:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: is everyone's head spinning yet?
2008-10-14 19:55:12 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: nope
2008-10-14 19:55:14 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: I'm with ya
2008-10-14 19:55:21 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: are you guys actually going to trade these numbers?
2008-10-14 19:55:29 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: for sure
2008-10-14 19:55:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just be reasonable and follow the guidelines
2008-10-14 19:55:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I am...have been
2008-10-14 19:55:41 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: dave gives me same count as i had, that's confirmation
2008-10-14 19:55:45 [Message] ron -> Main Room: likely trade
2008-10-14 19:55:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: been flipping back and forth for days now..
2008-10-14 19:56:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: confirmation that we're both wrong?
2008-10-14 19:56:03 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: wasn't expecting triangle, so that's nice to hear
2008-10-14 19:56:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: usually when you get crash like events, the probability of a triangle is rather high
2008-10-14 19:56:47 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: why a symmetrical instead of another form
2008-10-14 19:56:57 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: ascending or descending
2008-10-14 19:57:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not likely....too much push and pull going on
2008-10-14 19:57:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: too many feathers ruffled...too many opinions
2008-10-14 19:57:29 [Message] locus -> Main Room: dave if triangle for w iv measure 5 from end of e
2008-10-14 19:57:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: some saying "bottom"...others saying "just the beginning"
2008-10-14 19:57:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes locus
2008-10-14 19:58:00 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: sounds like Friday we go nowhere, which is perfect outcome for opex
2008-10-14 19:58:07 [Message] locus -> Main Room: tks
2008-10-14 19:58:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...everyone loses
2008-10-14 19:58:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: time decay is accelerated, and for those who are playing the front month, expire worthless
2008-10-14 19:58:28 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: also dave, is the minute 5 down an abc or 12345?
2008-10-14 19:58:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 12345
2008-10-14 19:58:47 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: perfect
2008-10-14 19:59:03 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: and the minor 4 up is an abc ?
2008-10-14 19:59:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the triangle will be made up with a series of 3 movements, yes
2008-10-14 19:59:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: minor 4 is a complex a-b-c structure...nothing impulsive
2008-10-14 19:59:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: from last Friday
2008-10-14 20:00:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: another clue
2008-10-14 20:00:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we didn't fall apart today
2008-10-14 20:00:15 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: complex as in b to c will be a 12345
2008-10-14 20:00:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after have a 600 point swing in the Dow
2008-10-14 20:00:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 12345's are never complex - they flow
2008-10-14 20:00:48 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: you mentioned complex abc
2008-10-14 20:00:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: only correctional patterns are complex
2008-10-14 20:01:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: got a 5 minute chart of the SPX?
2008-10-14 20:01:04 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: so im referring to the b to c being 1-5
2008-10-14 20:01:30 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: the b to c of minor 4
2008-10-14 20:01:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...slow down lol
2008-10-14 20:01:53 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: abc A , abc B, 12345 C of minor 4
2008-10-14 20:02:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: before we lose everyone
2008-10-14 20:02:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: no
2008-10-14 20:02:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: in triangles, all segments are three wave affairs
2008-10-14 20:02:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: usually zig zags
2008-10-14 20:02:28 [Message] locus -> Main Room: 3,3,3,3,3 = a,b,c,d,e = iv
2008-10-14 20:02:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: 5-3-5
2008-10-14 20:02:36 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: minor 4 dave, after minute 5
2008-10-14 20:02:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes locus
2008-10-14 20:02:47 [Message] ron -> Main Room: triangles are ABCDE affairs, yes, Dave?
2008-10-14 20:02:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-10-14 20:02:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just like all triangles
2008-10-14 20:03:09 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: 535, got it
2008-10-14 20:03:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you have at least 4 "touches" - remember the NDAQ symmetrical pattern we talked about a year ago?
2008-10-14 20:03:38 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: you expect minor 4 and minute 4 to have same symmetrical triangle structure?
2008-10-14 20:03:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: possibly
2008-10-14 20:03:53 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: ok, that's where my confusion was
2008-10-14 20:03:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Minor could turn out to be a flat
2008-10-14 20:04:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the main basis of the triangle here (aside from the internals) is Friday's expiry
2008-10-14 20:04:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "remember the October puts!!"
2008-10-14 20:04:40 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: right
2008-10-14 20:04:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which will keep those who are in it for a killing gun shy for November...or broke as many tend to go all in
2008-10-14 20:05:16 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: i got my Novembers........lol
2008-10-14 20:05:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: did you see Mortiz' chart over the weekend?
2008-10-14 20:05:36 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: dave can we talk any individual stocks?
2008-10-14 20:05:38 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: no
2008-10-14 20:05:42 [Message] ron -> Main Room: missed it
2008-10-14 20:05:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: let me get the link...
2008-10-14 20:06:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: http://tinyurl.com/4vxzze
2008-10-14 20:06:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: while you absorb it, I'll get DP up, and we'll go back to the 1 year charts tonight now that we have a bottom behind us
2008-10-14 20:07:47 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: so writing calls on rallies in next 3 days, and writing puts after sell offs in next 3 days, could be quite fruitful
2008-10-14 20:09:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as of Sunday..you can bet that things have changed with a 10% rally
2008-10-14 20:10:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...let's take a look around
2008-10-14 20:10:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: small point change on the CO NYSE breadth MCO tonight, and we remain below the declining tops line from the from the September peaks
2008-10-14 20:11:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM has now moved to lower lows for the year, and this gives us a reset to the intermediate term pattern
2008-10-14 20:11:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: meaning, that eventually, lower price lows will probably be seen
2008-10-14 20:11:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: as a reminder - even if the MCSUM turns higher here near term, it's still very "oversold", and it's going to take quite a while for any kind of daily rally to hold its gains
2008-10-14 20:12:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so there's no hurry to jump in here, no less, there isn't any kind of leadership as reflected in the BPI charts I posted over the weekend
2008-10-14 20:13:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if you're a scalper...have fun
2008-10-14 20:13:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but for those who are looking further out than a month, and don't want to play the downside, cash is king
2008-10-14 20:13:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just like we discussed at the July turn, it's going to take several months of constructive action to form a base
2008-10-14 20:14:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and we learned the lesson that the expression "the work to be done" should never be taken lightly
2008-10-14 20:15:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: McClellan wise...the bears are fully control of the action
2008-10-14 20:15:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: where any rally - like yesterday - only turn out to be exit points
2008-10-14 20:15:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: hopefully many of you who didn't take out put insurance last week allowed yourselves to exit with grace yesterday
2008-10-14 20:16:16 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: or this morning on the open
2008-10-14 20:16:21 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: 1064 ES was the overnight high today...sounds like a snapback to the MCO zero line could either move above that or not, but I am confused by the triangle discussion relating to the snapback minimum expectation
2008-10-14 20:16:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: better to take a smaller loss than to be emotionally tied to this roller coaster ride
2008-10-14 20:16:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: two different time frames Steve
2008-10-14 20:17:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: referring to the Elliott chart again, the labeling shown is of different degrees of trend
2008-10-14 20:17:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the current degree should only allow the MCO to move up to the declining tops lines...if that
2008-10-14 20:17:36 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: the MCO snapback occurs during the current triangle event?
2008-10-14 20:18:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the MCO snapback should more than likely occur once all of the bigger Minor three is done (in red)
2008-10-14 20:18:34 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: mco snapback should occur after the minute 5 is done, hiker, after the triangle breaks down and on the next rally
2008-10-14 20:18:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the triangle discussion is within the context of the make up of this same Minor 3
2008-10-14 20:19:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so this would be something to look for later on...once this current 3rd wave sequence is done
2008-10-14 20:19:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be this week...more than likely next week
2008-10-14 20:19:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and with the MCSUM's as "oversold" as they are, it might take another week for Minute wave V (in orange) to complete
2008-10-14 20:19:50 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: so, that means today's 1064 high is the high for a while...if this plays out?
2008-10-14 20:19:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-10-14 20:19:58 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: 1064ES
2008-10-14 20:20:05 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: thx so much
2008-10-14 20:20:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: taking the cash price
2008-10-14 20:20:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: if you measured the crash move of last week, and multiplied it by .382 on a closing basis, the number came up at 1002
2008-10-14 20:20:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we closed at 1003
2008-10-14 20:20:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so far, a direct hit
2008-10-14 20:21:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and reaffirms where we are in this same structure - unless - we close higher than 1003 tomorrow
2008-10-14 20:21:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: then we have to re-examine
2008-10-14 20:21:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: watching the 5 minute chart today
2008-10-14 20:21:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and it appeared to me that we finished off a very small Wave "C" during the blow off at the open
2008-10-14 20:22:23 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: such disappointing action today for bulls
2008-10-14 20:22:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: "C" waves, in this kind of structure, tend to blow off rapidly, and all of the gains are then washed away
2008-10-14 20:22:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: look at what happened to the NASDAQ - it got trashed during the 400 point open
2008-10-14 20:23:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and still we haven't reached our downside measuring objectives for the COMPX and NDX as yet
2008-10-14 20:23:31 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: when they go in the same direction on the same day - watch out!
2008-10-14 20:23:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: which adds more evidence that we still have unfinished business yet to do
2008-10-14 20:23:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes sir
2008-10-14 20:24:11 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: dave, the minute 5, is it all babies with the bath water or focused to certain market caps??
2008-10-14 20:24:34 [Message] ron -> Main Room: Dave, this "c" wave is the completion of the A wave of triangle? yes?
2008-10-14 20:24:37 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: and same question for minor 4
2008-10-14 20:24:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: well...the idea of divergence in wave 5 does suggest that not everything gets thrown out
2008-10-14 20:24:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes ron
2008-10-14 20:25:03 [Message] ron -> Main Room: tks
2008-10-14 20:25:33 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: so large caps leading the down?
2008-10-14 20:25:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so we should expect those stocks that have been the backbone of this decline...that led to the crash itself...to hold up far better than the rest of the market
2008-10-14 20:25:38 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: to drive index?
2008-10-14 20:25:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is a stock pickers market and not a segment or sector driven one - every stock for itself
2008-10-14 20:26:07 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: commodities and financials?
2008-10-14 20:26:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: more than likely, yes
2008-10-14 20:26:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: after all, who would benefit the most from the current government intervention?
2008-10-14 20:26:32 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: so they hold up the best if there is such a thing in a wave 5 that makes new lows
2008-10-14 20:26:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: they hold up the issues that have already been fully discounted or perceived as under valued
2008-10-14 20:27:09 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: steels, oils, and financials
2008-10-14 20:27:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be
2008-10-14 20:27:15 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: coal
2008-10-14 20:27:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but be careful
2008-10-14 20:27:19 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: nat gas
2008-10-14 20:27:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is a new market segment
2008-10-14 20:27:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: what led before will likely NOT lead this time around
2008-10-14 20:27:45 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: sounds like tech is in for a long few days
2008-10-14 20:27:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: commodities only move higher during times of excess liquidity...the beneficiary of gold
2008-10-14 20:28:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: excess moves from gold to commodities to debt and then to equities
2008-10-14 20:28:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this won't change
2008-10-14 20:28:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: unless...well...let's move on
2008-10-14 20:28:45 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: how would one expect gold the metal and gold stocks to act in this minute 5 and minor 4?
2008-10-14 20:29:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: don't know...they are working with another drummer
2008-10-14 20:29:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: did you see the Elliott gold count I posted?
2008-10-14 20:29:17 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: crazy patterns in gold stocks
2008-10-14 20:29:21 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: yes
2008-10-14 20:29:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: not really...the trend is down in the gold stocks - has been since April
2008-10-14 20:29:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and gold stocks ARE stocks
2008-10-14 20:29:48 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: crazy in terms of up 25% one day down 25% the next
2008-10-14 20:29:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: just like the market?
2008-10-14 20:30:00 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: gold stock rally today looked totally suspect
2008-10-14 20:30:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: plus you're dealing with a very emotionally charged market segment as gold bugs tend to be irrational
2008-10-14 20:30:43 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: the ultimate volatility
2008-10-14 20:30:48 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: aem for example
2008-10-14 20:30:51 [Message] hiker -> Main Room: 81.71 is the prior GLD weekly close low
2008-10-14 20:30:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: moving on to the composite NYSE breadth MCO, it is now up against its declining tops line
2008-10-14 20:31:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and if you compare this data with the commons, you will notice that the broader market, including the interest rate sensitives, have had a nice couple of days
2008-10-14 20:32:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the NYSE breadth MCSUM is highly "oversold" now with a reading of -1403, and as we have talked about with the XLF, when we get MCSUM readings at or below the -1500 level, it suggests to us two things:
2008-10-14 20:33:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one...that the market is pretty well washed out during the bear phase that created such a bottom
2008-10-14 20:33:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and two...that these bottoms are needed so that a more solid floor can be created in which the market can eventually rally
2008-10-14 20:33:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: note the word - eventually - not that it will, only that there is enough of a floor where one can be constructed
2008-10-14 20:34:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bottoms above bottoms...this kind of thing
2008-10-14 20:34:37 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: dave, what is the lowest mcsum you have seen on nyse?
2008-10-14 20:34:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: boy...I have to think
2008-10-14 20:34:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: DP has a longer term chart - I'll get a link
2008-10-14 20:35:08 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: if every other indicator has made all time lows, i would think that the same is possible here
2008-10-14 20:35:37 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: -2700
2008-10-14 20:35:43 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: 1932
2008-10-14 20:35:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: here's the chart - but there is a caveat - http://www.decisionpoint.com/prime/HistCharts/McOsiFiles/McOsi_Range.html
2008-10-14 20:35:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you will note that this is the traditional where no ratio is used...
2008-10-14 20:36:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this means that we can get higher highs (like 2003) and lower lows (like now) because there are more stocks being traded than before
2008-10-14 20:36:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so for good historical comparisons, one should use the ratio adjusted
2008-10-14 20:37:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but to answer your question...the traditional is close (if not already) at all time lows
2008-10-14 20:37:43 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: traditional is at all time lows
2008-10-14 20:37:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be something important as it relates to Elliott
2008-10-14 20:38:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the but it's the use of the RA that's important, and that I don't remember...maybe -2200?
2008-10-14 20:38:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I don't have my data here at the office
2008-10-14 20:38:30 [Message] denleo -> Main Room: -2700 in 1932
2008-10-14 20:38:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: thank you Dennis..we'll go with that
2008-10-14 20:39:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why using the RA is so important
2008-10-14 20:39:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: but forgetting the number for a moment, just the visual of making lower lows here should keep everyone from making the mistake that we're close to some sort of bottom here
2008-10-14 20:40:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and that's important
2008-10-14 20:40:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it may not be until spring of next year before we get another uptrend
2008-10-14 20:40:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could be longer depending on what happens in November and who then takes control of the levers
2008-10-14 20:41:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: small point change on the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2008-10-14 20:41:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and you can see how bad things are with the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM - this market is very weak...and continues to get weaker
2008-10-14 20:42:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: new all time lows everyday on the A/D line
2008-10-14 20:42:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: play at your own risk
2008-10-14 20:45:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: small move lower on the NDX breadth MCO
2008-10-14 20:47:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: chart pattern wise
2008-10-14 20:47:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: can anyone tell me if we closed the daily gap today?
2008-10-14 20:47:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: looks mighty darn close
2008-10-14 20:48:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway...something in which was not expected
2008-10-14 20:48:18 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: yes, closed
2008-10-14 20:49:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: COMPQ stopped short at the lower end of the gap...that was expected
2008-10-14 20:50:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: small point change on the SPX breadth MCO, and we had a mid range close today
2008-10-14 20:50:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this would suggest a down close on Wednesday
2008-10-14 20:50:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and with the small point change...probably 1-2% - which is nothing these days
2008-10-14 20:51:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK..we'll see how important this is
2008-10-14 20:51:39 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: what is the meaning if it fills or not?
2008-10-14 20:51:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: it might not be a measuring gap, maybe a simple pattern gap
2008-10-14 20:53:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: could had been one or two higher weighted stocks causing the problem
2008-10-14 20:53:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: back to the SPX breadth MCO, you will notice that we're finding current resistance at what was horizontal support before the breakdown
2008-10-14 20:54:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a natural retracement level...from where, given everything we know so far, we should move back lower
2008-10-14 20:54:32 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: dave, expecting a triangle on nas and dow as well?
2008-10-14 20:54:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: same kind of situation with the OEX data
2008-10-14 20:55:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would expect a triangle across the board...but the NASDAQ might provide us with a flat
2008-10-14 20:55:22 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: flat meaning that c is equal to a and not lower than a?
2008-10-14 20:55:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: a simple flat...yes
2008-10-14 20:56:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: that is only the expectation
2008-10-14 20:56:18 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: ok, so nas would outperform on the up legs of this triangle under this expectation
2008-10-14 20:56:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I must stress that we are in the middle of a third wave lower...anything can happen
2008-10-14 20:57:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: small point change on the Dow breadth MCO
2008-10-14 20:57:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: all of the MCSUM's are below -1000 now
2008-10-14 20:58:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anyway...the market still has a lot of work to do
2008-10-14 20:58:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so I wouldn't expect too much pattern development here...lots of backing and filling
2008-10-14 20:59:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: one area you can look at that might be beneficial will be with the volatility index'
2008-10-14 20:59:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and applying a 34 day Bollinger Band to it...maybe a 21
2008-10-14 21:00:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: when the VIX, for example, moves back below the SMA, it's a pretty good indication that a tradable bottom is behind us
2008-10-14 21:00:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I like the 89 day, but some may want more sensitivity
2008-10-14 21:00:45 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: dave, with us completing a iii of 3 of 3, would this mean that we have seen the highs on the vix? since we are going into a series of 4's and 5's?
2008-10-14 21:01:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: more than likely, yes
2008-10-14 21:01:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: sometimes we get a challenge of those highs on v of 3 of 3, but the highest extremes happen at center point
2008-10-14 21:01:49 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: wow, to think the we have a v and a 5 and another 5, that means three lower lows with the vix having topped
2008-10-14 21:01:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes
2008-10-14 21:02:12 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: crazy, thats going to mess alot of people up and keep bears bearish after we bottom
2008-10-14 21:02:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...the VIX measures option volatility
2008-10-14 21:02:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: you mean like all other bottoms?
2008-10-14 21:02:44 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: lol, yep
2008-10-14 21:02:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: how many years did it take for the bears to thrown in the towel after the 2002/2003 lows?
2008-10-14 21:03:14 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: two or three years
2008-10-14 21:03:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I can tell you exactly when - the spring of 2007 after the carry trade decline
2008-10-14 21:04:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: during April and May, you had Russell, Precther, and to a lesser degree, Eliades, changing their thoughts on the subject
2008-10-14 21:04:37 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: dave, i know this is looking far out, what would the expectation be in wave structure after all 5's are done?
2008-10-14 21:04:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: don't know...too early to say as we haven't identified the degree of trend yet
2008-10-14 21:05:06 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: ok
2008-10-14 21:05:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: best to keep focused on the here and now - we can put a label on it later as the evidence comes in
2008-10-14 21:06:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: we should always prepare for both good and bad
2008-10-14 21:07:00 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: ok, just to clarify, i was speaking in terms of wave structure after the 5's are done in the case of a super cycle bear
2008-10-14 21:07:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I don't know
2008-10-14 21:07:15 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: k
2008-10-14 21:07:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: wave structure has a lot to do with price
2008-10-14 21:07:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: again...Elliott is only a way to label basic charting techniques
2008-10-14 21:08:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: to share with someone else where we THINK we are
2008-10-14 21:08:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: this is why there is always "alternate counts" because many analysts have predetermined outcomes that usually don't work out
2008-10-14 21:08:36 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: was looking at those bottom targets you gave based on the gap measurement, if they can rally 1000 pts in a day, the market may need to hit those levels to get people to stop buying bottoms
2008-10-14 21:09:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: remember the 2002 lows in the NASDAQ?
2008-10-14 21:09:05 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: sure do
2008-10-14 21:09:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: when did everyone give up then?
2008-10-14 21:09:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NDX 3800 or NDX 800?
2008-10-14 21:09:47 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: 800
2008-10-14 21:10:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: bear markets are coined "slopes of hope" for many good reasons
2008-10-14 21:10:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I remember being at the NYSE in May of 2002 and listening to traders on the floor
2008-10-14 21:10:38 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: right, thats why im saying we may have to go as low as your 4th targets on the indexes to get the last of bottom callers to give up
2008-10-14 21:11:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and how staunch they still were on the market turning around
2008-10-14 21:11:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: holding positions for a year...waiting and hoping for a turn
2008-10-14 21:11:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and then July came...and that was the final straw
2008-10-14 21:11:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I would expect no less this time around
2008-10-14 21:12:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the CVI has been working perfectly in the climate as it generated a cover short signal on Thursday
2008-10-14 21:12:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: went neutral yesterday...and the bears recovered the initial gains of the morning
2008-10-14 21:12:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: STVO's still "oversold"
2008-10-14 21:12:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: VTO's still trashed (and probably remain so until Minor 3 is over)
2008-10-14 21:13:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NYSE TRIN at 1.40 (that's better)
2008-10-14 21:14:20 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: dave, great class tonight, thank you a ton........
2008-10-14 21:14:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.08
2008-10-14 21:14:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: still "oversold", but not quite what one would expect at the bottom
2008-10-14 21:15:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: NASDAQ TRIN at 3.24 (yeow!)
2008-10-14 21:15:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.40
2008-10-14 21:15:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: (this is what we should expect on the NYSE Open 10 from last weeks discussion)
2008-10-14 21:15:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: TM TRIN at 2.49
2008-10-14 21:16:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: Open 10 at 1.28
2008-10-14 21:16:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: so...no real sign of a tradable bottom as yet
2008-10-14 21:16:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: yes...getting there...
2008-10-14 21:16:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: and lots of choppy behavior to be expected
2008-10-14 21:17:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for those with a weak stomach...continue to stand aside
2008-10-14 21:17:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: for day traders...enjoy...but keep it simple
2008-10-14 21:17:30 [Message] TradeMark -> Main Room: I think last week will weigh heavy on open 10 trins for a while
2008-10-14 21:17:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: the use of tools such as RSI and stochastic tools can hurt more than help
2008-10-14 21:17:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: try using a EMA - keep it simple
2008-10-14 21:18:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: anything else?
2008-10-14 21:19:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: OK...if there's nothing else
2008-10-14 21:20:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I'm going to get out of here
2008-10-14 21:20:08 [Message] crystal06 -> Main Room: I don't know if anyone mentioned, Neely posted today that the fastest decline will occur in a few days
2008-10-14 21:20:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: eveyrone have a great rest of the day
2008-10-14 21:20:19 [Message] ddave -> Main Room: dave, thank you very much
2008-10-14 21:20:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: does anyone understand Neely?
2008-10-14 21:20:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I don't ...I gave up
2008-10-14 21:20:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: too confusing for me
2008-10-14 21:20:57 [Message] crystal06 -> Main Room: lol
2008-10-14 21:21:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: I like things that make sense...that's why I have trouble "speaking Japanese"
2008-10-14 21:21:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: talk to you all on Thursday
2008-10-14 21:21:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Main Room: good night



__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

0
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.






Copyright 2000-2017 Technical Watch