All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.

PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at

Sign up Calendar Latest Topics

  Author   Comment  

Posts: 5,160
Reply with quote  #1 
2015-10-13 16:00:42 fib1618: good day
2015-10-13 16:00:45 fib1618: how is everyone?
2015-10-13 16:01:07 rite01: Doing great!
2015-10-13 16:01:31 rite01: How about you?
2015-10-13 16:04:47 fib1618: doing fine
2015-10-13 16:04:54 fib1618: just doing some last minute clean up
2015-10-13 16:05:07 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2015-10-13 16:05:16 rite01: Good to hear....   How about those Astros?
2015-10-13 16:06:10 fib1618: close, but so far
2015-10-13 16:06:11 rite01: and Altuve..
2015-10-13 16:06:36 fib1618: well...I switched to the KC radio broadcast at the top of the 8th yesterday
2015-10-13 16:06:45 fib1618: so that I can hear them eat some crow
2015-10-13 16:07:05 fib1618: and the very first thing they say as they come out of commercial break was...
2015-10-13 16:07:29 rite01: Listen when the astro are playing it's like Yogie sp says 'it not over till it's over.
2015-10-13 16:07:35 fib1618: "well...remember last year we were down by 4 runs going into the 8th inning against the A's, and we tied it...let's see if we can do it again!"
2015-10-13 16:07:50 fib1618: and then 1 hit
2015-10-13 16:07:52 fib1618: 2 hits
2015-10-13 16:07:54 fib1618: 3 hits
2015-10-13 16:08:00 fib1618: and I was getting sick
2015-10-13 16:08:02 fib1618: 4 hits
2015-10-13 16:08:10 fib1618: and I'm going...this can't happen again, can it?
2015-10-13 16:08:14 fib1618: 5 hits in a row
2015-10-13 16:08:32 fib1618: just couldn't believe it
2015-10-13 16:08:44 fib1618: oh well..that's why you play it out to the end no matter what the score
2015-10-13 16:08:50 rite01: Yep!
2015-10-13 16:08:56 fib1618: cubs are leading the cards in the 7th
2015-10-13 16:09:02 fib1618: 5-4
2015-10-13 16:09:08 fib1618: great game there too
2015-10-13 16:09:14 fib1618: it's been a great post season
2015-10-13 16:09:22 rite01: Sure has
2015-10-13 16:09:25 fib1618: that we got that out of way
2015-10-13 16:09:33 fib1618: let's get to SC and see what we have to work with
2015-10-13 16:09:47 rite01: One quick question....Last Thursday and Friday we had several Indexes and sectors with Daily price and MCO divergences. What if anything would this imply...
2015-10-13 16:10:36 fib1618: let me see if can give you a better understanding
2015-10-13 16:10:52 fib1618: when the MCO gets to extremes as it does
2015-10-13 16:11:10 fib1618: for it continue deeper into those extremes is not at all likely
2015-10-13 16:11:16 fib1618: it will more than likely tend to trail off
2015-10-13 16:11:30 fib1618: but the momentum of the move created by the thrust will still push prices forward
2015-10-13 16:11:33 fib1618: so there is no "divergence"
2015-10-13 16:11:45 fib1618: as you are working off the momentum of the move
2015-10-13 16:12:09 fib1618: the best example is stepping your foot on the accelerator in your car
2015-10-13 16:12:22 fib1618: you will continue to move forward even after you take you foot off the pedal
2015-10-13 16:12:31 fib1618: so you're not diverging
2015-10-13 16:12:42 fib1618: you're seeing a lessening of buying pressure (or fuel injection)
2015-10-13 16:13:04 fib1618: just like we saw with the MCO's with the late September lows
2015-10-13 16:13:16 fib1618: divergence is...
2015-10-13 16:13:19 fib1618: when you're in your car
2015-10-13 16:13:26 fib1618: you're going 80 MPH
2015-10-13 16:13:33 fib1618: you step off your accelerator
2015-10-13 16:13:59 fib1618: and then you apply more fuel to move you up to only 60 MPH in order to keep your forward motion at a constant
2015-10-13 16:14:10 fib1618: that's divergence
2015-10-13 16:14:24 fib1618: it's a top beneath of top
2015-10-13 16:14:28 fib1618: a bottom above bottom
2015-10-13 16:14:38 fib1618: does this help?
2015-10-13 16:14:58 rite01: Yes and Thanks .... pretty close to what I thought..
2015-10-13 16:15:02 fib1618: good
2015-10-13 16:15:31 fib1618: and what it all means depends on high fast you're going
2015-10-13 16:15:40 fib1618: for now
2015-10-13 16:16:00 fib1618: with the MCO moving to a high of +95 (MPH) last week
2015-10-13 16:16:20 fib1618: this tells you that it will be very difficult for prices to show any kind decay at this speed
2015-10-13 16:16:33 fib1618: as there is too much forward momentum keeping prices from moving south
2015-10-13 16:16:44 fib1618: and you've seen this in the last two trading days
2015-10-13 16:17:01 fib1618: as your forward momentum begins to decline, however, the deeper prices can then move in the opposite direction
2015-10-13 16:17:27 fib1618: so...taking an advance peak at the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2015-10-13 16:17:42 fib1618: and we see that it closed today with a reading of +45
2015-10-13 16:18:27 fib1618: so it now becomes that much more easier for prices to back and fill since the speed in which money had been moving in at Thursday's peak is now cut in half
2015-10-13 16:18:38 fib1618: now...
2015-10-13 16:18:59 fib1618: we also know that the +50 level provides near term natural support in this dynamic
2015-10-13 16:19:11 fib1618: so a bounce would be expected as soon as Wednesday
2015-10-13 16:19:35 fib1618: that's based on a cursory trying to pull the concept altogether
2015-10-13 16:19:40 fib1618: so let's see what we actually have here
2015-10-13 16:19:57 fib1618: after peaking out on Thursday
2015-10-13 16:20:18 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO has continued to move lower working off these same extremes
2015-10-13 16:20:29 fib1618: closing today with a reading of +41
2015-10-13 16:20:44 fib1618: looking at the components
2015-10-13 16:21:11 fib1618: and we see that the 10% Trend has also moved lower after being at or near "overbought" territory last week
2015-10-13 16:21:21 fib1618: but has yet to catch up to the 5% Trend
2015-10-13 16:21:40 fib1618: 6-4 Cubs
2015-10-13 16:22:05 fib1618: so here we can allow for a little move of a pull back in the short term trend of money flow
2015-10-13 16:22:13 fib1618: looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2015-10-13 16:22:35 fib1618: and we see that we are starting to slow our ascent as we come closer to the zero line
2015-10-13 16:22:49 fib1618: closing today with a reading of -72
2015-10-13 16:23:33 fib1618: we'll also note that we cleared above the last area of horizontal resistance from the last June highs in this MCSUM
2015-10-13 16:23:55 fib1618: so, for the sellers, the MCSUM zero line becomes their last zone of defense against the buyers
2015-10-13 16:24:13 fib1618: where any break above this level, with conviction, would propel prices in the NYA to challenge their all time highs seen in May
2015-10-13 16:25:05 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2015-10-13 16:25:34 fib1618: and we see that we have pulled back as well
2015-10-13 16:26:09 fib1618: as the MCO components have also relaxed a bit after last week's breadth thrust
2015-10-13 16:26:24 fib1618: looking at the NYSE Composite breadth MCSUM
2015-10-13 16:26:42 fib1618: and we see that we moved up and through the zero line today
2015-10-13 16:27:02 fib1618: where buyers now have control of the market action on both a short term and intermediate term basis
2015-10-13 16:27:21 fib1618: as mentioned earlier
2015-10-13 16:27:56 fib1618: we have a good chance on Wednesday of a bounce higher from here
2015-10-13 16:28:31 fib1618: as today's price bar fulfilled the minimum expectation of a snapback to or towards the previous highs seen in late August and mid September
2015-10-13 16:28:56 fib1618: moving to the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2015-10-13 16:29:10 fib1618: and here too we've seen some back and fill after moving to new highs last week
2015-10-13 16:29:40 fib1618: closing just below another natural area of support with a +22
2015-10-13 16:30:13 fib1618: on the negative side though
2015-10-13 16:30:48 fib1618: is that we've retraced enough of the previous weeks thrust that we broke below the small blip area of support seen on the chart
2015-10-13 16:31:27 fib1618: and we haven't seen prices fulfill the objective of moving above the previous recovery highs above the mid September blow off
2015-10-13 16:31:46 fib1618: so something is "out of tune" there
2015-10-13 16:32:05 fib1618: and looking for a better spark plug might do the trick
2015-10-13 16:32:17 fib1618: problem is...where do find one?
2015-10-13 16:33:01 fib1618: also a problem is the outside range day we saw today in the NASDAQ Composite Index
2015-10-13 16:33:21 fib1618: which closed below the last 3 advancing closes
2015-10-13 16:33:55 fib1618: this is a near term situation that will usually point to further downside near term
2015-10-13 16:34:45 fib1618: we also see that the 5% Trend of the NASDAQ is back to being below its zero line
2015-10-13 16:35:06 fib1618: so there's definitely something out of sorts there
2015-10-13 16:35:44 fib1618: and a triangle is what will likely be the outcome
2015-10-13 16:35:59 fib1618: if that's the case
2015-10-13 16:36:03 fib1618: maybe a bounce on Wednesday
2015-10-13 16:36:13 fib1618: and then weak into the end of the week
2015-10-13 16:36:48 fib1618: we've had a deeper than anticipated snapback in the NDX breadth MCO
2015-10-13 16:37:03 fib1618: now supporting a +36 reading
2015-10-13 16:37:24 fib1618: and amazingly enough
2015-10-13 16:37:47 fib1618: the NDX breadth MCSUM has finally reached its overhead resistance at the zero line
2015-10-13 16:38:24 fib1618: so an important couple of days is coming up here
2015-10-13 16:38:31 rite01: I've got +36 MCO reading
2015-10-13 16:39:06 fib1618: where any strong follow through would provide enough of a push to rally prices above the mid September top
2015-10-13 16:39:24 fib1618: oh...sorry...yes, +36
2015-10-13 16:39:27 fib1618: not -36
2015-10-13 16:39:38 fib1618: wrong keystroke
2015-10-13 16:40:04 fib1618: I don't look at the keyboard anyway...I just type away
2015-10-13 16:40:20 rite01: OK just making sure.. You're doing fine keep it up
2015-10-13 16:40:29 fib1618: that's the one thing I'm glad my mom made me do when I was a kid...taking a typing class!
2015-10-13 16:40:53 rite01: You and Sharon Pollard did it for me
2015-10-13 16:41:00 rite01: in typing class
2015-10-13 16:41:09 fib1618: little did I know that computing would make me a super star in a chat room! [smile]
2015-10-13 16:41:36 rite01: One never knows :blush:
2015-10-13 16:42:02 fib1618: nope...all I knew was that I going to type a lot of reports in college...double spaced!
2015-10-13 16:42:11 fib1618: OK...moving to the SPX
2015-10-13 16:42:16 fib1618: and we see that the SPX breadth MCO has also given back its gains of last week
2015-10-13 16:42:42 fib1618: settling today with a reading of +39
2015-10-13 16:42:44 fib1618: problem is
2015-10-13 16:42:56 fib1618: when we get this far away from a support area like +50
2015-10-13 16:43:33 fib1618: it suggests, in this case, that the bulls are becoming less and less proficient in their buying
2015-10-13 16:43:46 fib1618: and this gives the prices the opportunity to sag lower
2015-10-13 16:44:06 fib1618: looking at the SPX breadth MCSUM
2015-10-13 16:44:19 fib1618: and we see here that we have barely moved above horizontal resistance today
2015-10-13 16:45:07 fib1618: so a good push here by the buyers will send a strong message to the sellers that they are, in fact, in firm control of the action
2015-10-13 16:46:00 fib1618: we pretty much have the same situation with the OEX breadth MCO
2015-10-13 16:46:12 fib1618: but it's showing a bit more support on the snapback
2015-10-13 16:46:28 fib1618: coming in today with a +54 reading
2015-10-13 16:46:57 fib1618: so we're likely to see better support with this basket of issues by Thursday because of this
2015-10-13 16:47:41 fib1618: the Dow stocks remain the strongest so far based on the reading of the breadth MCO
2015-10-13 16:48:43 fib1618: as the pattern structure begins to challenge the high point seen in late February of this year
2015-10-13 16:49:44 fib1618: looks like the bulls are losing their confidence as the MID breadth MCO has now moved down over last couple of days
2015-10-13 16:50:39 fib1618: same thing with the SML breadth MCO
2015-10-13 16:50:52 fib1618: and the SML breadth MCSUM is now a day away from challenging its zero line
2015-10-13 16:51:28 fib1618: with any kind of bounce on Wednesday likely to see a zero line reading
2015-10-13 16:52:17 fib1618: and another deep pullback in the TM breadth MCO
2015-10-13 16:52:27 fib1618: while the TM breadth MCSUM is up against horizontal resistance last seen with the June highs
2015-10-13 16:53:00 fib1618: so...
2015-10-13 16:53:41 fib1618: we've have now met the near term expectation of a pullback in the various MCO's from last Thursday's chat
2015-10-13 16:55:15 fib1618: and a bounce here would be helpful in stabilizing prices in and around current levels while the buyers regroup to find other traders to help propel prices to higher highs
2015-10-13 16:55:26 fib1618: looking at the volume McClellan's
2015-10-13 16:56:06 fib1618: Cubs Win!
2015-10-13 16:57:27 fib1618: both the NYSE CO and Components volume MCO's are in lock step with the breadth counterparts
2015-10-13 16:57:58 fib1618: so we seem to continue to be in gear to the least for now
2015-10-13 16:58:30 fib1618: as both the NYSE CO and Composite volume MCSUM's are now within spitting distance of their zero lines
2015-10-13 16:58:41 fib1618: if the buyers are going to make a run to the all time highs in the NYA
2015-10-13 16:59:02 fib1618: they will need to move above this same demarcation line in order to make this happen
2015-10-13 16:59:23 fib1618: this also means that we have near term balance between buyers and sellers being at or near the zero line
2015-10-13 16:59:28 fib1618: so one side is about to make a statement
2015-10-13 16:59:53 fib1618: but we probably won't hear what that will be until Thursday
2015-10-13 17:00:12 fib1618: as any decent bounce higher on Wednesday will only get us to the MCSUM zero lines but not above them
2015-10-13 17:00:30 fib1618: that is, of course, if we get one of those "buy with both hands" kind of day
2015-10-13 17:00:58 fib1618: but that doesn't look likely with the BETS only in neutral territory
2015-10-13 17:01:31 fib1618: looking at the NASDAQ volume MCSUM
2015-10-13 17:01:44 fib1618: and we see that the trend of volume is leading breadth to the upside right now
2015-10-13 17:02:11 fib1618: so any break above the MCSUM zero line in the next couple of days (now at a -76)
2015-10-13 17:02:35 fib1618: would definitely help in allowing prices to rally beyond the mid September highs
2015-10-13 17:03:04 fib1618: looking at the NDX volume MCSUM
2015-10-13 17:03:13 fib1618: and we can see that it's already moved above its zero line
2015-10-13 17:03:24 fib1618: with a reading today of a +204
2015-10-13 17:03:42 fib1618: and here's a good example of how amplitude works with the MCSUM
2015-10-13 17:04:19 fib1618: with the NDX showing a higher proportionate high point last week compared to its mid September blow off
2015-10-13 17:05:09 fib1618: and this is because of difference in the readings of the NASDAQ MCSUM (-76) and the NDX MCSUM (+204)
2015-10-13 17:06:19 fib1618: anyway...this difference in MCSUM levels has allowed NDX pricing to show that much upside strength
2015-10-13 17:07:10 fib1618: the SPX volume MCO also shows a high amount of pullback
2015-10-13 17:07:32 fib1618: which is not consistent to our having a strong uptrend
2015-10-13 17:07:40 fib1618: but only that of a mild one
2015-10-13 17:07:57 fib1618: for the bulls
2015-10-13 17:08:25 fib1618: they will need to take out the horizontal highs of April/May to see a solid challenge of the all time highs
2015-10-13 17:09:16 fib1618: this outside range day today is bothering me
2015-10-13 17:09:54 fib1618: think we'll need another day of sloshing around before we have our technical bounce here
2015-10-13 17:10:44 fib1618: the OEX volume MCO has now retraced back to the +50 level
2015-10-13 17:10:54 fib1618: so we should see a bounce there as soon as tomorrow
2015-10-13 17:11:12 fib1618: looks like we're stuck in some sort of chop again
2015-10-13 17:11:41 fib1618: the Dow volume MCSUM continues to be very strong here
2015-10-13 17:12:06 fib1618: as it took out the February highs
2015-10-13 17:12:43 fib1618: the MID caps look to the be weak link in the chain right now
2015-10-13 17:13:16 fib1618: as the MID volume MCO has pulled back to a reading of +22
2015-10-13 17:13:35 fib1618: after peaking out last week at a +100
2015-10-13 17:14:12 fib1618: oh, but the SML volume MCO continues to maintain some good buoyancy here
2015-10-13 17:14:24 fib1618: so that's a strong positive
2015-10-13 17:15:23 fib1618: though we're not likely to see much in the way of a continuation of last week's advance in the SML until we take out both the July highs and zero line in the SML volume MCSUM
2015-10-13 17:15:51 fib1618: and the TM volume MCSUM is now supporting a reading of -75
2015-10-13 17:16:34 fib1618: I sure wouldn't want to see these MCSUM zero lines hold here
2015-10-13 17:17:02 fib1618: that would not be a good thing for the market after using up so much energy after last weeks advance
2015-10-13 17:17:35 fib1618: the kind of "not good" that can cause some near term chaos in pricing
2015-10-13 17:17:38 fib1618: but so far
2015-10-13 17:17:51 fib1618: although moving a bit lower than what one would like to see in the MCO's
2015-10-13 17:18:15 fib1618: the market has now worked off its deeply "overbought" readings from last week
2015-10-13 17:18:31 fib1618: and if it wasn't for the outside range day we seen today
2015-10-13 17:18:46 fib1618: one would expect a bounce here on a technical basis
2015-10-13 17:18:55 fib1618: but that might now happen now until Thursday
2015-10-13 17:19:13 fib1618: almost a key situation coming up here for both sides
2015-10-13 17:19:27 fib1618: let's see how the OBV's look
2015-10-13 17:20:24 fib1618: gonna have to have to call the STVO's still "overbought"
2015-10-13 17:20:41 fib1618: and the VTO's are screaming north now
2015-10-13 17:21:13 fib1618: sure wouldn't want the Open 10's at or below .80
2015-10-13 17:21:15 fib1618: let's see
2015-10-13 17:21:29 fib1618: wow
2015-10-13 17:21:33 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at 1.83
2015-10-13 17:21:44 fib1618: Open 10 now at .83
2015-10-13 17:22:08 fib1618: after being "overbought" on Monday
2015-10-13 17:22:31 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.03
2015-10-13 17:22:40 fib1618: Open 10 at .79
2015-10-13 17:22:42 fib1618: sigh
2015-10-13 17:22:45 fib1618: "overbought"
2015-10-13 17:23:00 fib1618: spidey sense flashing yellow here
2015-10-13 17:23:12 fib1618: TM TRIN at 1.28
2015-10-13 17:23:22 fib1618: Open 10 at .84
2015-10-13 17:23:33 fib1618: well...
2015-10-13 17:23:49 fib1618: if the buyers don't step in here by Thursday
2015-10-13 17:24:00 fib1618: and support last weeks advance
2015-10-13 17:24:14 fib1618: this has bear market rally written all over it
2015-10-13 17:24:23 fib1618: thinking
2015-10-13 17:24:33 fib1618: let me check the sec
2015-10-13 17:25:40 fib1618: -20
2015-10-13 17:25:46 fib1618: and to be honest
2015-10-13 17:26:18 fib1618: a negative day on Wednesday would put the BETS back to a -30 (minimally)
2015-10-13 17:26:38 fib1618: so...let's stay neutral for a bit longer
2015-10-13 17:26:54 fib1618: and see if the buyers are going to belly up or not
2015-10-13 17:27:06 fib1618: we can allow another day of digestion here
2015-10-13 17:27:15 fib1618: and look for a lower close due to the outside range day
2015-10-13 17:27:18 fib1618: but after that
2015-10-13 17:27:48 fib1618: someone needs to step on the gas pedal here to get as far away from the bear market default as possible
2015-10-13 17:27:56 fib1618: or something nasty can happen
2015-10-13 17:28:03 fib1618: we'll see
2015-10-13 17:28:07 fib1618: anything else?
2015-10-13 17:29:30 unc1998: I have a quick question....
2015-10-13 17:29:38 fib1618: sure
2015-10-13 17:30:11 unc1998: We didn't have Zweig Breadth Thrusts in October of 2011 or 2013 did we?
2015-10-13 17:30:39 fib1618: well....
2015-10-13 17:30:49 fib1618: according to Stock Charts we didn't
2015-10-13 17:30:55 unc1998: Tom McClellan referenced them in his article but I didn't see them on Stockcharts
2015-10-13 17:31:16 fib1618: but I have come to find that we did...I guess if we take away the unchanged issues...
2015-10-13 17:31:17 unc1998: He did say he played with the parameters but didn't say how
2015-10-13 17:31:25 fib1618: I know...
2015-10-13 17:31:38 fib1618: hold on a sec...I have a note here on this in my mailbox...let me read it
2015-10-13 17:33:55 fib1618: "So in comparison to a true ZBT in Nov 2012 we went from 36.9% to 65.4% in 10 trading days"
2015-10-13 17:34:42 fib1618: that's all I got
2015-10-13 17:34:44 fib1618: anyway
2015-10-13 17:35:04 fib1618: I would use Tom as a reference on this since we have another source or two claiming the same thing
2015-10-13 17:35:04 unc1998: I was definitely curious about that
2015-10-13 17:35:12 fib1618: the problem is...
2015-10-13 17:35:23 fib1618: it really depends on two criteria
2015-10-13 17:35:35 fib1618: the first is the data source for the breadth figures
2015-10-13 17:35:59 fib1618: the second is whether the calculation is without the pollution of unchanged issues or not
2015-10-13 17:36:13 fib1618: what I do feel comfortable in saying though
2015-10-13 17:36:30 fib1618: is that there is no debate of the March 2009 EMA trigger
2015-10-13 17:36:45 fib1618: and if we are to be consistent in what this indicator provides to us
2015-10-13 17:37:34 fib1618: we really have to question any or all signals that were generated without a declining price sequence of at least 20%
2015-10-13 17:37:40 fib1618: including last week's
2015-10-13 17:37:47 fib1618: in any event
2015-10-13 17:38:04 fib1618: Tom's report was an interesting one as to the results over time
2015-10-13 17:38:43 fib1618: so...maybe this indicator doesn't have the "slam dunk" indications that we had thought it did
2015-10-13 17:38:45 fib1618: maybe
2015-10-13 17:39:04 unc1998: It was a good read and thanks for posting it
2015-10-13 17:39:11 fib1618: we have to include the caveat that a market decline of 20% or more needs to be added to the guidelines, for example
2015-10-13 17:39:28 fib1618: the other thing is
2015-10-13 17:39:34 fib1618: we are now a global market
2015-10-13 17:40:02 fib1618: and not nearly the myopic one we had in the 70's, 80's and 90's
2015-10-13 17:40:06 fib1618: to wit
2015-10-13 17:40:23 fib1618: not a lot of old Norman Fosback's data really works anymore
2015-10-13 17:40:59 rite01: I also thought Zweig's breadth thrust signal works best when are a Bear market..which is -15% in equities....
2015-10-13 17:41:07 fib1618: and things have definitely changed as more and more markets are able to be traded
2015-10-13 17:41:14 fib1618: well...
2015-10-13 17:41:23 fib1618: 15% may not be enough of a bear market
2015-10-13 17:41:39 fib1618: but if we increase to the "standardized" definition of 20%, it might compliment the odds of success
2015-10-13 17:41:48 fib1618: in any event
2015-10-13 17:42:05 rite01: according to Zweig in his book I remember reading...his definition
2015-10-13 17:42:36 fib1618: having shallow corrections of 5%-15% may not have enough of a shift to provide the necessary punch one might get from such an indicator
2015-10-13 17:42:48 fib1618: then who am I to argue?
2015-10-13 17:42:50 fib1618: but again
2015-10-13 17:43:12 fib1618: Wining on Wall Street's last version was sometime in the mid 90's...1997?
2015-10-13 17:43:19 rite01: Now I could be wrong and now I'll have to read his book again this weekend. which is not a bad thing...
2015-10-13 17:43:25 fib1618: and look what's happened since that time as far as trading is concerned
2015-10-13 17:43:36 rite01: mine is in the 90's
2015-10-13 17:43:40 fib1618: who needs ADR's for example?
2015-10-13 17:43:55 fib1618: who needs to buy individual stocks when we have ETF's?
2015-10-13 17:44:07 rite01: VERY Good Point
2015-10-13 17:44:19 fib1618: who needs to short the market when you can buy a basket of issues that do the same thing?
2015-10-13 17:44:30 fib1618: without borrowing stock
2015-10-13 17:44:50 fib1618: or losing money on borrowing costs associated with it
2015-10-13 17:44:55 fib1618: oh...
2015-10-13 17:45:22 fib1618: and let's not forget probably THE biggest difference in trading that started in the early 2000...
2015-10-13 17:45:24 fib1618: anyone?
2015-10-13 17:45:38 rite01: lower commissions
2015-10-13 17:45:40 fib1618: how about decimalization?
2015-10-13 17:45:47 unc1998: decimalization
2015-10-13 17:45:50 fib1618: where we only need to move by a penny to be up or down
2015-10-13 17:45:59 fib1618: and not by a 1/8 or 1/4 point
2015-10-13 17:46:42 fib1618: so all of these factors can have a marked difference in how we interpret indicators that were created before these changes took place
2015-10-13 17:46:51 fib1618: so our job
2015-10-13 17:47:08 fib1618: is to find what does work
2015-10-13 17:47:10 fib1618: doesn't
2015-10-13 17:47:29 fib1618: it's sort of like historical comparisons
2015-10-13 17:48:08 fib1618: like trying to compare the market's pricing structure to that of the Nikkei before the top in 1989 (of which so many have done and continue to do)
2015-10-13 17:48:18 fib1618: these things only work until...they stop working
2015-10-13 17:48:33 fib1618: and then you're left holding the bag as it were
2015-10-13 17:48:46 fib1618: this is why breadth analysis is probably the only constant here
2015-10-13 17:49:05 fib1618: where everything else needs to be "adjusted" for the times
2015-10-13 17:49:25 fib1618: anyway
2015-10-13 17:49:40 fib1618: always best to keep our options open regardless
2015-10-13 17:49:56 fib1618: anything else?
2015-10-13 17:50:39 fib1618: we have all seen how people get themselves in so much trouble when they try so hard to make something that used worked in the past and try to force it to continue to work
2015-10-13 17:51:03 fib1618: anyway...
2015-10-13 17:51:20 fib1618: we'll see how this signal works out...or doesn't
2015-10-13 17:51:29 fib1618: OK...if there's nothing else
2015-10-13 17:51:41 fib1618: I'm going to watch the Mets/Dodgers battle it out
2015-10-13 17:51:53 fib1618: everyone have a great couple of days
2015-10-13 17:52:01 fib1618: and we'll do this all again on Thursday
2015-10-13 17:52:03 fib1618: good night
2015-10-13 17:52:24 tuna: Good night all
2015-10-13 17:56:12 rite01: Good night
2015-10-13 20:38:10 hossman: Thanks Dave

Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

Previous Topic | Next Topic

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.

Copyright 2000-2020 Technical Watch