All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.


PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at
http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm




Support Technical Watch!
Buy from our Book Store!
Register Calendar Latest Topics
 
 
 


Note: This topic is locked. No new replies will be accepted.


Reply
  Author   Comment  
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,528
Reply with quote  #1 
Sorry for the delay...it looks like we finally found the website problem from yesterday.

2010-10-12 15:59:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2010-10-12 15:59:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2010-10-12 16:00:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2010-10-12 16:01:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't you love the way the market is able to absorb sell offs and bounce right back?
2010-10-12 16:02:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for those who are keeping score...
2010-10-12 16:02:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE breadth MCSUM was able to break above its declining tops line today
2010-10-12 16:02:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it also moved above the last MCSUM gap resistance zone
2010-10-12 16:03:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this should mean that the NYUD should now accelerate to the upside since the lid is off...let me look
2010-10-12 16:03:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still moving higher...bottoms above bottoms...but no acceleration as yet
2010-10-12 16:04:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the other hand
2010-10-12 16:04:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NAUD is now streaking higher
2010-10-12 16:04:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the NAAD is now right at its 1% Trend (200 day EMA)
2010-10-12 16:05:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...this would be a good place to rest
2010-10-12 16:05:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but then again
2010-10-12 16:05:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we've saying that for several weeks now
2010-10-12 16:05:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...lets get going
2010-10-12 16:05:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO had a small point change today
2010-10-12 16:06:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM is now above its +500 level
2010-10-12 16:06:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a highly bullish event
2010-10-12 16:06:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and suggests that we may only be STARTING the real meat of the rally now
2010-10-12 16:07:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYA looks to be only 125 points away from reaching the April highs now
2010-10-12 16:07:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and today's long bar is what I call a "clean out" day
2010-10-12 16:08:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the market moves lower to trigger stops, and when complete, rallies and closes near the highs
2010-10-12 16:08:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on both the traditional and the ratio adjusted NYSE breadth MCO's today
2010-10-12 16:08:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's expect a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading days
2010-10-12 16:09:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE breadth MCSUM
2010-10-12 16:09:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can now see that the individual postings are now extending to the upside
2010-10-12 16:09:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is something that's very difficult to do when we are above the +750 level
2010-10-12 16:10:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but keep in mind that this expansion in postings is occurring on an intermediate term breakout of the daily pattern itself
2010-10-12 16:10:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would then be a highly bullish event...that not only have we broken out...but money flow seems to be accelerating into the market now
2010-10-12 16:11:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now that this double resistance has been broken
2010-10-12 16:11:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the next objective for the MCSUM are March/April highs
2010-10-12 16:11:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if that's broken, we will then get significant upside price objectives for the NYA
2010-10-12 16:12:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: probably very close to the 2007 highs
2010-10-12 16:12:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there's still some work to do there before we can get too excited
2010-10-12 16:12:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2010-10-12 16:13:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM is now above its +250 level
2010-10-12 16:13:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we talked about last week
2010-10-12 16:14:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the bulls were able to push the NYSE breadth MCSUM (trendline) and the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM (+250) above these levels, that for trading purposes, the bears would have lost the battle now and are in full retreat
2010-10-12 16:14:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to come back another day
2010-10-12 16:14:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would also mean
2010-10-12 16:15:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the April price highs will probably now be exceeded
2010-10-12 16:15:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: trading wise...selective new buying can also be re-initiated
2010-10-12 16:15:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no shorts for now
2010-10-12 16:16:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the path of least resistance is now higher on all levels
2010-10-12 16:16:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO has crawled its way back above its zero line today
2010-10-12 16:17:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this continuing travel at or near the MCO zero line is keeping the NDX breadth MCSUM from trending lower
2010-10-12 16:17:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if the NDX breadth MCSUM can go to new highs here
2010-10-12 16:18:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will have another bullish 3 step MCSUM pattern intact
2010-10-12 16:18:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these 3 step patterns historically give us bull market action for over 6 months minimally and up to 2 years overall
2010-10-12 16:18:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (all depending)
2010-10-12 16:19:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it should also be duly noted
2010-10-12 16:19:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the NDX price pattern is now less than 10 points from its April highs
2010-10-12 16:19:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if the bulls can initiate a new flex of buying near term
2010-10-12 16:19:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and turn the MCSUM higher
2010-10-12 16:20:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that should be more than enough to move above the April highs without much of a problem
2010-10-12 16:20:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO moved slightly higher today
2010-10-12 16:20:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the SPX breadth MCSUM
2010-10-12 16:21:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you can see how the individual postings seem to be expanding now to the upside on the 21 day view
2010-10-12 16:21:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...this sure smells like a cycle low is or has passed here
2010-10-12 16:21:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if that's the case...watch out above
2010-10-12 16:22:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a slight move to the upside on the OEX breadth MCO today
2010-10-12 16:22:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it was enough of a push to move the OEX breadth MCSUM to higher highs
2010-10-12 16:22:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...strong close on the OEX today
2010-10-12 16:23:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and only 20 points from the April highs
2010-10-12 16:23:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same story with the Dow data as with the OEX
2010-10-12 16:23:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both with respect to the MCO and MCSUM
2010-10-12 16:24:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this was what we talked about as one scenario a couple of weeks ago
2010-10-12 16:24:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that we would "correct on the fly" and once "clarity was known" start to extend higher
2010-10-12 16:24:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sure seems like that this is what's happening now
2010-10-12 16:25:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: slight upward change in the MID breadth MCO
2010-10-12 16:25:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this is continuing to push the MID breadth MCSUM above its +500 level
2010-10-12 16:25:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now with a reading of +584
2010-10-12 16:26:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML breadth MCSUM continues to play catch up with the rest of the market
2010-10-12 16:26:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also remember that the SML price pattern was able to break above its horizontal resistance line of 360 last week and now shows a successful test in place
2010-10-12 16:26:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing wrong here for the bulls
2010-10-12 16:27:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a small point change on the TM breadth MCO
2010-10-12 16:27:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this keeps pushing the TM breadth MCSUM to the +597 level
2010-10-12 16:27:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2010-10-12 16:28:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as has been the blueprint over the last couple of weeks
2010-10-12 16:28:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the various MCO's can break above their individual horizontal ranges in the near term to the upside
2010-10-12 16:29:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be our signal to be aggressive buyers of the market
2010-10-12 16:29:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if, on the other hand, we see a significant break below the MCO zero lines, the plan would be to "hold" positions waiting for more information
2010-10-12 16:30:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the reason for the "hold" is as all of have seen over the last 2 weeks
2010-10-12 16:30:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market is going to continue to have a tough time building any kind of downside momentum until better balance between buyers and sellers is seen on an intermediate term basis as measured by the Summation Index
2010-10-12 16:31:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's move to the volume data...maybe it's tipping the hand there
2010-10-12 16:31:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE volume MCO moved slightly higher today
2010-10-12 16:32:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remains within its congestion zone of the last couple of weeks
2010-10-12 16:32:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meanwhile
2010-10-12 16:32:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE volume MCSUM is now approaching its +750 level
2010-10-12 16:32:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when the volume MCSUM's get this high
2010-10-12 16:33:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any trading surprises will always be in the direction of MCSUM trend
2010-10-12 16:33:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this case...higher
2010-10-12 16:33:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so something like this helps us in ascertaining what the probable direction might be of a small point MCO change
2010-10-12 16:33:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this case then....there's probably a 70% chance of an upside move
2010-10-12 16:34:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite volume McClellan's are nearly supporting the same structures and their forecasts
2010-10-12 16:34:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ah oh
2010-10-12 16:35:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NASDAQ volume MCO
2010-10-12 16:35:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we have an upside breakout
2010-10-12 16:35:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this has turned the NASDAQ volume MCSUM above its recent highs
2010-10-12 16:35:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is what many would like to see as far as leadership is concerned
2010-10-12 16:35:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and more to the point
2010-10-12 16:36:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with money moving into the secondary stocks
2010-10-12 16:36:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: its not likely at all that any kind of price top is imminent
2010-10-12 16:36:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...look at the NDX volume data
2010-10-12 16:36:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: showing great leadership to the upside now
2010-10-12 16:37:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the NASDAQ composite in lock step with the cream stocks
2010-10-12 16:37:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one can't say that we're not seeing good broad participation now
2010-10-12 16:37:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...this smells like a cycle nesting has passed
2010-10-12 16:37:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (did I already say that?)
2010-10-12 16:38:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and look at the SPX volume MCO!
2010-10-12 16:38:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now showing excellent leadership to the upside
2010-10-12 16:38:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looks like we're going for the April price highs now
2010-10-12 16:39:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nice strength as well with the OEX volume MCO
2010-10-12 16:39:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but unlike the SPX
2010-10-12 16:39:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX volume MCSUM hasn't as yet moved to higher highs
2010-10-12 16:40:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same kind of the same story with the Dow volume data
2010-10-12 16:40:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it would be a whole lot better for the bulls if they can push above the end September reaction highs
2010-10-12 16:40:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we're able to clear that
2010-10-12 16:40:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then the April price highs will likely be exceeded
2010-10-12 16:41:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still a bit of a struggle with the MID volume MCO
2010-10-12 16:41:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as tops beneath tops still control the pattern
2010-10-12 16:41:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you have to like the way we've been able to stay above the zero line
2010-10-12 16:42:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like it's waiting for time to pass
2010-10-12 16:42:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but has a good feeling for the outcome
2010-10-12 16:44:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...here's something important
2010-10-12 16:44:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SML volume MCO has perceptively moved out of its channel today
2010-10-12 16:44:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is what I was personally waiting for to start getting aggressive with my cores
2010-10-12 16:45:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we get good follow through tomorrow
2010-10-12 16:45:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look for a post
2010-10-12 16:45:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also note that this breakout is taking place at the same time in which the SML volume MCSUM is moving above its "escape velocity" level of +500
2010-10-12 16:46:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and although the TM volume MCO is showing nice strength here
2010-10-12 16:46:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it hasn't quite moved above its end September reaction highs as yet
2010-10-12 16:47:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this takes place, the market will then be "in the clear" to continue to [u]trend[/u] higher
2010-10-12 16:48:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far it's looking highly probable that a re-initiation is about to take place of the rally that started at the beginning of September
2010-10-12 16:48:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: much of this will probably be on the back of both "better than expected earnings"
2010-10-12 16:48:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that there's going to be a political shift in Washington next month
2010-10-12 16:49:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and where any potential problem might lie in how traders are going to treat their portfolio based on what will be done with the tax plans moving forward
2010-10-12 16:49:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: do I sell before the end of the year...or after??
2010-10-12 16:49:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we won't know that until after Thanksgiving...the beginning of December
2010-10-12 16:50:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: questions...comments??
2010-10-12 16:50:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nervous?
2010-10-12 16:50:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: can an "overbought" market get even more so?
2010-10-12 16:50:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the answer, of course, is sure
2010-10-12 16:51:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the FED pumping like crazy
2010-10-12 16:51:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the majority still fixated on the banks
2010-10-12 16:51:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a great wall of worry in place
2010-10-12 16:51:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we're only a day or two away from seeing the April price highs on many indices
2010-10-12 16:52:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: break above that...and the buying could snowball
2010-10-12 16:52:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as many won't want to be left behind
2010-10-12 16:52:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...we hope that the market internals lead the way here
2010-10-12 16:52:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and give us a day or two head start
2010-10-12 16:52:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our patience being rewarded
2010-10-12 16:53:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are once again pushing north
2010-10-12 16:53:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not "overbought"
2010-10-12 16:54:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's are "overbought" and in need of a near term rest
2010-10-12 16:54:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's are positive...but not dangerous
2010-10-12 16:54:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .69
2010-10-12 16:54:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .98
2010-10-12 16:54:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: close to minimally "oversold"
2010-10-12 16:55:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: big buying today in the NASDAQ
2010-10-12 16:55:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .38
2010-10-12 16:55:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .95
2010-10-12 16:55:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yesterday it was at 1.06
2010-10-12 16:55:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so a lot of air went out today
2010-10-12 16:55:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it shows how much up volume there was today
2010-10-12 16:56:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .46
2010-10-12 16:56:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at .99
2010-10-12 16:56:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: minimally "oversold"
2010-10-12 16:56:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how did INTEL do after the close?
2010-10-12 16:56:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: people from the Folsom campus have been telling me that "business has been very good"
2010-10-12 16:57:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me look...one moment
2010-10-12 16:57:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: spike higher after hours..but not much to talk about
2010-10-12 16:58:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: amazing... "Intel reported a third-quarter profit of $2.96 billion"
2010-10-12 16:58:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 3 billion in a quarter??
2010-10-12 16:58:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BILLION!
2010-10-12 16:58:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they talk about oil companies!
2010-10-12 17:00:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...since we have a lot of time left here
2010-10-12 17:01:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was there anything else that you wish to bring up?
2010-10-12 17:01:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: stocks to look at?
2010-10-12 17:01:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: indicators to review?
2010-10-12 17:01:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what I may be missing bear wise?
2010-10-12 17:02:17 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Can you say something about Open trin? How it can be understood intuitively? If that is possible
2010-10-12 17:02:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Open 10 is a 10 day average of the TRIN numbers themselves
2010-10-12 17:02:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a smoothing agent
2010-10-12 17:03:15 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: OK
2010-10-12 17:03:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the TRIN measures the amount of down volume over up volume
2010-10-12 17:03:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in relation to breadth of market
2010-10-12 17:03:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2010-10-12 17:04:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one thing we have to be careful of are the times in which there may be heavier volume in one or a hand full of issues that might put a weight on the daily numbers
2010-10-12 17:04:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2010-10-12 17:04:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back in 2008
2010-10-12 17:04:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we had a lot of penny stocks trading because of the crash
2010-10-12 17:05:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we were getting high down side volume numbers on issues that may had been down only a penny
2010-10-12 17:05:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what the Open 10 helps us do is smooth this out so that we can get a feel for general market conditions over a short term basis
2010-10-12 17:05:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back in the 80's
2010-10-12 17:05:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when we didn't have as many issues trading as we do today
2010-10-12 17:05:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the TRIN range was .80 for "overbought"
2010-10-12 17:06:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and 1.00 for "oversold"
2010-10-12 17:06:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: over the last decade, this has been adjusted a bit on the "oversold" side
2010-10-12 17:06:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to around the 1.10 level
2010-10-12 17:06:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...you probably know all about the TRIN
2010-10-12 17:07:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I hope I answered the question on the Open 10
2010-10-12 17:07:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: follow up?
2010-10-12 17:08:22 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Yes thanks. One more. Does the open trin offer divergence setups?
2010-10-12 17:08:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it can
2010-10-12 17:08:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: usually what happens is that you will likely see divergences on down moves move than on up moves
2010-10-12 17:09:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the reason for this is that humans tend to panic more at bottoms on a daily basis
2010-10-12 17:09:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not so much on a trending basis
2010-10-12 17:09:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a good way I remember this is
2010-10-12 17:09:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: stocks tend to have spike bottoms and rounding tops
2010-10-12 17:10:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so although you might see divergence in the Open 10 during "overbought" levels
2010-10-12 17:10:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these can continue to show these extremes until all of the energy that pushed us to these same extremes has abated
2010-10-12 17:10:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in Elliott speak
2010-10-12 17:11:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 5th waves will diverge with third waves
2010-10-12 17:11:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it applies to the measurement of momentum
2010-10-12 17:11:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but will spike to extremes on a daily basis during such times
2010-10-12 17:11:50 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: OK. BTW Congrats on the NSU. Well hit
2010-10-12 17:12:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well..the pattern was there
2010-10-12 17:12:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm just happy it went the way it should of! lol
2010-10-12 17:12:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's the fascination with TA
2010-10-12 17:12:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that it happens over and over again
2010-10-12 17:12:37 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat:
2010-10-12 17:12:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and why
2010-10-12 17:12:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have to believe in the "voodoo"
2010-10-12 17:13:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: though its preferred that you understand why the voodoo is likely to work to begin with
2010-10-12 17:13:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market pulses
2010-10-12 17:13:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a living entity
2010-10-12 17:13:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it has breath (breadth) and heart (volume)
2010-10-12 17:14:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we try to do as technicians is measure the markets ability to exert
2010-10-12 17:14:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without a strong heart, it's likely to keel over
2010-10-12 17:14:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without good lung capacity, it's likely to exhaust itself
2010-10-12 17:15:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so what we do here
2010-10-12 17:15:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: by using the McClellan's and other oscillators
2010-10-12 17:15:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is to measure the beat, or rhythm, of the marketplace
2010-10-12 17:15:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and try to determine if there's enough energy for it to continue to climb higher or not
2010-10-12 17:16:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: without this same energy...it just sags
2010-10-12 17:16:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why the stock market is ALWAYS in a bear market
2010-10-12 17:16:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's easy
2010-10-12 17:16:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the tough part for us as traders is looking for the characteristics that are necessary to offset this same default
2010-10-12 17:17:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's go back and take a look at the sector McClellan's and see if there's one (if any) that might be leading higher here
2010-10-12 17:17:44 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: On the bearish side I would have expected a bigger price move up on NDX on the break above the 2030. Also based on the big up volume today. I would have thought that a lot of short covering would have happened.
2010-10-12 17:18:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it did
2010-10-12 17:18:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: check out the range
2010-10-12 17:18:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once again..
2010-10-12 17:18:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the nervous nellies were stopped out
2010-10-12 17:18:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once all of the willing sellers were out
2010-10-12 17:18:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market rebounded just as quickly
2010-10-12 17:18:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in the case of the NASDAQ and NDX
2010-10-12 17:18:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they both closed near their highs
2010-10-12 17:19:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one other thing
2010-10-12 17:19:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also had outside range days today
2010-10-12 17:19:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with Monday being a down close
2010-10-12 17:19:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Wednesday suggests that we will close higher
2010-10-12 17:19:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also of note
2010-10-12 17:20:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there was a TON of up volume that came into the NAUD today
2010-10-12 17:20:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TON
2010-10-12 17:20:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's always good to remember
2010-10-12 17:20:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that money flows in ADVANCE of news
2010-10-12 17:21:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not when the news is known and prices do something significant to compliment the story
2010-10-12 17:21:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also be aware that the NDX is only 10 points from its April highs
2010-10-12 17:21:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's not likely that the market wants everyone to know that it has plans of moving above these same highs too soon
2010-10-12 17:21:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it was a very good day today for the bulls
2010-10-12 17:22:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all we need now is follow through
2010-10-12 17:22:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in which we're getting now on the volume end of the equation
2010-10-12 17:22:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we had lots of small point changes today on the breadth MCO"s
2010-10-12 17:22:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's likely that something big is about to happen
2010-10-12 17:23:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we talked about this last Thursday
2010-10-12 17:23:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's a certain rhythm building here
2010-10-12 17:23:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I still sense it
2010-10-12 17:23:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but my sense has been known to be wrong from time to time
2010-10-12 17:23:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I'll wait for confirmation
2010-10-12 17:24:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small point change on the XLY breadth MCO
2010-10-12 17:24:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and any move above the end September highs here should be enough to thrust the price pattern above the April highs
2010-10-12 17:24:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only a point away now
2010-10-12 17:25:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the internals here are exceptionally strong right now
2010-10-12 17:26:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP breadth MCO is now back above its zero line now
2010-10-12 17:26:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not easy to make a higher high in the MCO like this after its been above the zero line for the last month and a half
2010-10-12 17:26:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this should be respected for what it may imply
2010-10-12 17:27:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE breadth MCSUM has now cleared a major hurdle by moving above its August highs
2010-10-12 17:27:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you haven't done so already, shorts should be closed there
2010-10-12 17:28:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I am watching the XLF very closely now
2010-10-12 17:28:21 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Did it last week
2010-10-12 17:28:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we had a nice rally today here
2010-10-12 17:28:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: (good)
2010-10-12 17:28:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any price breakout above 15 would a strong buy there
2010-10-12 17:29:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look at the way that the XLF breadth MCO is leading the way here
2010-10-12 17:29:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like we talked about last week
2010-10-12 17:29:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the odds say that we're going to get some sort of divergent high eventually
2010-10-12 17:30:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hmmm...might see our breakout as soon as tomorrow
2010-10-12 17:30:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: stay vigilant
2010-10-12 17:30:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is where our patience will be capitalized
2010-10-12 17:30:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow..what a strong market
2010-10-12 17:30:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm really amazed
2010-10-12 17:30:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is stronger than 2003 now
2010-10-12 17:31:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: XLV breadth MCO continues to look OK
2010-10-12 17:31:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the XLV breadth MCSUM remains above the +750 level
2010-10-12 17:31:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 3 step pattern in place
2010-10-12 17:32:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: makes you wonder if the market is thinking that the health care law is going to be rescinded (doubtful on my end)
2010-10-12 17:32:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI remains the ugly sister here
2010-10-12 17:32:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so any breakdown here...the XLI is your go to sector
2010-10-12 17:32:48 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Could it be bearish as health care are defensive stocks?
2010-10-12 17:32:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not bearish
2010-10-12 17:33:08 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: for the market
2010-10-12 17:33:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: defensive sectors are usually bought on the anticipation that the market will eventually rally
2010-10-12 17:33:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's still in its infant stages
2010-10-12 17:33:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the situation now, however, is that you have other sectors with high levels on their MCSUM's
2010-10-12 17:34:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...it would be more consistent to say
2010-10-12 17:34:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the defensive issues continue to lead the rest of the market higher
2010-10-12 17:34:38 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: OK
2010-10-12 17:34:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we look at the staples and utilities
2010-10-12 17:34:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be a fair statement
2010-10-12 17:35:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with health care only lagging because of politics
2010-10-12 17:35:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Industrials, though, remain a problem here
2010-10-12 17:35:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no doubt about that
2010-10-12 17:35:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: BUT
2010-10-12 17:35:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they start to participate
2010-10-12 17:35:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's nothing really holding the market back
2010-10-12 17:35:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: its' something to watch
2010-10-12 17:36:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB price chart is now challenging its 52 week highs for the 2nd time
2010-10-12 17:36:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the XLB breadth MCO is at its zero line
2010-10-12 17:36:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with one side about to take control
2010-10-12 17:36:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB breadth MCSUM is now at a lofty +729
2010-10-12 17:36:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no way to short
2010-10-12 17:37:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only way is to look for a new surge
2010-10-12 17:37:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the metals continue to have so much potential here
2010-10-12 17:37:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I still don't see a top as yet
2010-10-12 17:37:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: speaking of which
2010-10-12 17:37:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wonder if were able to take out the reversal highs of last week or not
2010-10-12 17:37:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me check
2010-10-12 17:38:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not yet
2010-10-12 17:38:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: PW...do you see what I see on gold?
2010-10-12 17:38:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not so much on silver
2010-10-12 17:39:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it looks like gold is tracing out a simple triangle
2010-10-12 17:39:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would suggest a pause for the market before moving to higher highs
2010-10-12 17:39:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we've talked about for the last several months
2010-10-12 17:40:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our tip off as to the direction of equities has been, and continues to be, the price of gold
2010-10-12 17:40:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as it continues to move higher
2010-10-12 17:40:13 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: That is the high level consolidation you mentioned lat week
2010-10-12 17:40:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: equities will tend to follow that lead
2010-10-12 17:40:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes sir
2010-10-12 17:40:31 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat:
2010-10-12 17:40:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's very difficult for prices to "just reverse" with a high amount of momentum behind it
2010-10-12 17:40:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what usually happens though
2010-10-12 17:41:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that prices can "slip and fall" from time to time
2010-10-12 17:41:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as they tend to get "cocky" and forget to "watch their step"
2010-10-12 17:41:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: commodities do that all the time
2010-10-12 17:41:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...I would look for at least one more move higher before we'll see a correction that might last for more than a week
2010-10-12 17:42:06 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Gold dipped a lot in December 09 and in March 08. Those came very suddenly
2010-10-12 17:42:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would again caution comparing any time period to now
2010-10-12 17:42:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have a whole lot of differences between now and then
2010-10-12 17:42:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less
2010-10-12 17:43:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: historically
2010-10-12 17:43:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the potential here is really mind boggling
2010-10-12 17:43:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for now...continue to keep it simple
2010-10-12 17:43:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as the internals lead the way...just follow its direction
2010-10-12 17:44:04 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: OK
2010-10-12 17:44:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as far as monetary policy is concerned
2010-10-12 17:44:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the FED has made it very clear that they are not going to be turning off the spigot for some time to come
2010-10-12 17:44:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all of the excess in liquidity goes into gold first
2010-10-12 17:45:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that excess will eventually be siphoned off by the other classes
2010-10-12 17:45:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but...
2010-10-12 17:45:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it takes something like 18 months to see money that moves out of gold to get to equities
2010-10-12 17:45:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if you look at a gold chart 18 months ago
2010-10-12 17:46:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what was it doing?
2010-10-12 17:46:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'll wait...it's an important point to understand
2010-10-12 17:46:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was it consolidating?
2010-10-12 17:47:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with a bullish bias?
2010-10-12 17:47:34 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: I think it was going up
2010-10-12 17:47:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the June period of 2009
2010-10-12 17:48:21 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Or just ending its correction
2010-10-12 17:48:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: http://www.technicalwatch.com/forum10/gold101310.png
2010-10-12 17:48:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: gold is your blueprint
2010-10-12 17:49:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it may not follow the pattern exactly
2010-10-12 17:49:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it gives you general direction
2010-10-12 17:49:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if we were to use this as a guideline then
2010-10-12 17:49:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the next 9 months should be bullish for stocks
2010-10-12 17:50:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a correction next summer/fall
2010-10-12 17:50:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then another move to even higher highs
2010-10-12 17:51:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway...back to the defensive issues for a moment
2010-10-12 17:51:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what eventually happens once the broader market gets its legs
2010-10-12 17:51:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we then generally see money leave the defense and move to offense
2010-10-12 17:51:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this time shouldn't be any different
2010-10-12 17:51:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2010-10-12 17:52:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know what I find interesting
2010-10-12 17:52:46 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Does the volume MCO usually lead the issues MCO on breakouts like the break out on NDX today?
2010-10-12 17:53:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you extend out 18 months on the gold chart from where the current rally began
2010-10-12 17:53:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this puts us in 2012
2010-10-12 17:53:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the "doomsday" year
2010-10-12 17:53:39 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: The Mayan one
2010-10-12 17:54:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is preferred that volume either keep in sync with, or ideally, lead breadth to the upside for the price structure to have the strength enough to maintain its pattern
2010-10-12 17:54:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're seeing volume leading in the NASDAQ and NDX now
2010-10-12 17:55:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we can get a 3:1 positive day near term
2010-10-12 17:55:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're likely to see a broad range of issues breaking out to the upside
2010-10-12 17:55:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for those who had missed the advance of the last couple of months
2010-10-12 17:55:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and/or were worried of a double dip
2010-10-12 17:55:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they will have to throw in the towel with both hands
2010-10-12 17:56:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we'll see how things go
2010-10-12 17:56:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the odds are conducive to this kind of thing happening with the MCSUM's as high as they are
2010-10-12 17:56:41 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: The dollar weighted volume charts seems to be lagging. Is that important?
2010-10-12 17:56:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see...
2010-10-12 17:56:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a case now of "show me"
2010-10-12 17:57:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's volume (or the lack of it) talking
2010-10-12 17:57:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it can be corrected quite quickly
2010-10-12 17:58:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: could also be a currency valuation problem
2010-10-12 17:58:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would keep it on the back burner for now
2010-10-12 17:58:22 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Ah sure
2010-10-12 17:58:33 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: The dollar has been going down
2010-10-12 17:58:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2010-10-12 17:58:45 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Explains it
2010-10-12 17:58:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and anything that is valued in dollars move higher to provide parity
2010-10-12 17:59:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX:USD ratio is leading to the upside
2010-10-12 17:59:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very clean pattern there
2010-10-12 17:59:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...anything else?
2010-10-12 17:59:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just watch what money does
2010-10-12 17:59:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's all that matters
2010-10-12 17:59:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything else is just a distraction
2010-10-12 17:59:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...with that
2010-10-12 17:59:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2010-10-12 18:00:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great couple of days
2010-10-12 18:00:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll chat again on Thursday
2010-10-12 18:00:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night
2010-10-12 18:00:32 [Message] PriceWatcher -> Chat: Thanks. Good night

__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

0
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.






Copyright 2000-2017 Technical Watch