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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2015-10-01 15:59:54 fib1618: good day
2015-10-01 15:59:57 fib1618: how is everyone?
2015-10-01 16:02:40 orange: Great!
2015-10-01 16:03:44 thespookyone: Excellent
2015-10-01 16:04:02 fib1618: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2015-10-01 16:08:14 fib1618: OK...then let's get busy
2015-10-01 16:09:10 fib1618: after moving sharply higher on Wednesday
2015-10-01 16:09:24 fib1618: the NYSE CO breadth MCO found snapback resistance at its zero line
2015-10-01 16:09:38 fib1618: and came in today with a small point change
2015-10-01 16:10:03 fib1618: we also have a problem with the CO components
2015-10-01 16:10:18 fib1618: as the 10% Trend has only been able to snapback up to its 5% Trend
2015-10-01 16:10:41 fib1618: without providing for a bullish crossover
2015-10-01 16:10:48 fib1618: between the two
2015-10-01 16:11:10 fib1618: money flow is now neutral on a short term trending basis
2015-10-01 16:11:36 fib1618: and there hasn't been enough money moving in to reverse the current downtrend in prices
2015-10-01 16:11:58 fib1618: on the bullish side of the equation
2015-10-01 16:12:13 fib1618: we still have bullish divergence in place between the NYSE CO MCO and the NYA index
2015-10-01 16:12:41 fib1618: but until we start seeing more than just short covering
2015-10-01 16:12:55 fib1618: we continue to be controlled by the sellers at this time
2015-10-01 16:13:07 fib1618: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2015-10-01 16:13:48 fib1618: and we see that we also had small point change today here as well
2015-10-01 16:13:56 fib1618: so like we noted on Tuesday
2015-10-01 16:14:13 fib1618: let's expect a dramatic move in the major market averages in the next two trading sessions
2015-10-01 16:14:47 fib1618: we also note that today's small point change was positive enough to move above its blip resistance area from last week
2015-10-01 16:14:52 fib1618: but unlike the CO MCO
2015-10-01 16:15:12 fib1618: we have yet to fully snapback to the MCO zero line
2015-10-01 16:15:25 fib1618: coming in today with a reading of -7
2015-10-01 16:15:56 fib1618: looking at the components here
2015-10-01 16:16:12 fib1618: and we see that we remain with a bearish crossover configuration as well
2015-10-01 16:16:28 fib1618: so until buyers come in and support the market
2015-10-01 16:16:41 fib1618: the path of least resistance will remain to the downside
2015-10-01 16:17:22 fib1618: and basic EMA's plots on the price averages will continue to contain any reflex or bear market rallies
2015-10-01 16:17:40 fib1618: like...yesterdays...where the 20 day EMA provided resistance on some of the indces
2015-10-01 16:17:43 fib1618: in fact
2015-10-01 16:17:53 fib1618: let me get a price chart up so I can look at it
2015-10-01 16:17:54 fib1618: one sec
2015-10-01 16:18:40 fib1618: and, yes, we're still well below that level
2015-10-01 16:18:49 fib1618: keep in mind
2015-10-01 16:19:04 fib1618: that in order to turn the cruise ship from negative to positive
2015-10-01 16:19:14 fib1618: we will first need to see a break above the 20 day EMA
2015-10-01 16:19:26 fib1618: a successful snapback test
2015-10-01 16:19:32 fib1618: a move above the 50 day EMA
2015-10-01 16:19:40 fib1618: another successful test
2015-10-01 16:20:00 fib1618: and only when the 20 crosses back above the 50 will we know that the sellers no longer have control of the direction of price
2015-10-01 16:20:12 fib1618: and that ain't happening...so far
2015-10-01 16:20:40 fib1618: and with the current analytical tools being used to measure the trend of money flow still showing a negative bias (such as the MCO and MCSUM)
2015-10-01 16:21:11 fib1618: it then becomes a reasonable expectation that it's going to take a bit more time before we'll see any resemblance of a reversal
2015-10-01 16:21:31 fib1618: small point change on the NASDAQ breadth MCO as well
2015-10-01 16:21:49 fib1618: and looky here...the unemployment numbers come out tomorrow
2015-10-01 16:21:56 fib1618: how coincidental!
2015-10-01 16:21:57 fib1618: [smile]
2015-10-01 16:22:25 fib1618: we are also reminded
2015-10-01 16:22:29 fib1618: that unlike the NYA
2015-10-01 16:22:40 fib1618: the NASDAQ is not as yet showing a lower price low than that of August
2015-10-01 16:22:49 fib1618: so all we have here is the potential for divergence
2015-10-01 16:22:57 fib1618: and a weak one at that
2015-10-01 16:23:26 fib1618: even if we take a cursory view of the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2015-10-01 16:23:51 fib1618: does it seem "reasonable" that a turn is about to take place just by taking a simple look at the current structure?
2015-10-01 16:24:02 fib1618: probably not
2015-10-01 16:24:05 thespookyone: nope
2015-10-01 16:24:16 fib1618: it looks as though it's falling
2015-10-01 16:24:34 fib1618: unlike what were seeing in the spring
2015-10-01 16:24:45 fib1618: where we had one, maybe two, gap extensions to the downside
2015-10-01 16:24:55 fib1618: and then the individual posts would become congested
2015-10-01 16:25:04 fib1618: here...they are not so congested
2015-10-01 16:25:16 fib1618: and this is because of the bear market default
2015-10-01 16:25:54 fib1618: as it takes a tremendous amount of liquidity to soften the pull of this default in market behavior
2015-10-01 16:25:58 fib1618: this is why
2015-10-01 16:26:00 fib1618: on Tuesday
2015-10-01 16:26:16 fib1618: we expected that we were likely to have a rally on Wednesday
2015-10-01 16:26:31 fib1618: but we also knew that it probably would be given back pretty quickly
2015-10-01 16:26:58 fib1618: I found it interesting this morning on how many traders were surprised that we didn't have follow through today
2015-10-01 16:27:16 fib1618: and noted how quickly they gave up on this notion after the 1st hour
2015-10-01 16:27:33 fib1618: once those weak hands were out of the way mid day
2015-10-01 16:27:35 fib1618: we then rallied again
2015-10-01 16:27:54 fib1618: and here we are...back to being balanced between buyers and sellers
2015-10-01 16:28:14 fib1618: though the sellers, so far, still continue to have a slight advantage
2015-10-01 16:28:49 fib1618: looking at the daily chart of the NASDAQ
2015-10-01 16:29:00 fib1618: and we see that we did close above Wednesday's levels
2015-10-01 16:29:02 fib1618: however
2015-10-01 16:29:09 fib1618: we did so on contracting volume
2015-10-01 16:29:18 fib1618: which usually means another bout of short covering into the close
2015-10-01 16:29:57 fib1618: the NDX breadth MCO did fully snapback to its zero line
2015-10-01 16:30:11 fib1618: in fact...it closed today with a reading of +4
2015-10-01 16:30:50 fib1618: now that this technical expectation has been realized
2015-10-01 16:31:16 fib1618: it will now take more than just short covering to push the MCO past the important +25 level
2015-10-01 16:31:18 fib1618: no less
2015-10-01 16:31:43 fib1618: see just basic follow through as control continues to be questioned
2015-10-01 16:32:07 fib1618: looking at the price chart
2015-10-01 16:32:25 fib1618: and we see that the NDX has all three time period EMA's still above current levels
2015-10-01 16:32:41 fib1618: and like we saw in mid September
2015-10-01 16:33:08 fib1618: until we see conclusive evidence that all three have been challenged and won
2015-10-01 16:33:24 fib1618: the trend of least resistance will remain lower
2015-10-01 16:34:01 fib1618: small point change on the SPX breadth MCO
2015-10-01 16:34:24 fib1618: but here we do have a bullish crossover on the SPX MCO components
2015-10-01 16:34:25 fib1618: but
2015-10-01 16:34:54 fib1618: both components remain below their zero line and not confirming today's SPX MCO reading of +13
2015-10-01 16:34:59 fib1618: and when this happens
2015-10-01 16:35:11 fib1618: we KNOW that this nothing but corrective behavior
2015-10-01 16:35:37 fib1618: where the market is indecisive on the direction to take prices
2015-10-01 16:35:54 fib1618: take that, and a small point change, and really anything can happen near term
2015-10-01 16:36:10 fib1618: but the odds are that it will be a larger sideways pattern whatever the eventual outcome
2015-10-01 16:36:47 fib1618: for the Elliottician's out there
2015-10-01 16:37:11 fib1618: could be we just finished a downside "B" wave of a simple flat formation from the late August lows
2015-10-01 16:37:20 fib1618: if that's the actual case
2015-10-01 16:37:34 fib1618: then we'll rally for a bit back up to the September highs
2015-10-01 16:37:42 fib1618: and then move sharply lower from there
2015-10-01 16:38:13 fib1618: "flats" are the most charismatic of all of the correction Elliot patterns
2015-10-01 16:38:39 fib1618: as it suggests a sign of extreme weakness in downtrends...and extreme strength in uptrends
2015-10-01 16:39:01 fib1618: so...we'll see...just throwing things out there for now until we get more clarity
2015-10-01 16:39:26 fib1618: moving to the OEX breadth MCO
2015-10-01 16:39:44 fib1618: and here we're seeing some nice strength as we currently have a reading of +36
2015-10-01 16:39:57 fib1618: but what we also know
2015-10-01 16:40:08 fib1618: and have seen so many times just in the last couple of months
2015-10-01 16:40:29 fib1618: that when the "cream" stocks rise to the top faster than the rest of the market
2015-10-01 16:40:53 fib1618: then it's likely that leadership is a wolf in sheep's clothing
2015-10-01 16:40:59 fib1618: and doomed to retracement
2015-10-01 16:41:17 fib1618: we never like to see the "brass" leading the infantry
2015-10-01 16:41:57 fib1618: as the soldiers are there to clear a path for these same folks so that they can make the important decisions on the field of battle
2015-10-01 16:42:20 fib1618: and then we get to the Dow breadth MCO
2015-10-01 16:42:24 fib1618: and amazingly
2015-10-01 16:42:34 fib1618: we see that it moved to a +53 on Wednesday
2015-10-01 16:42:39 fib1618: only to be turned back lower today
2015-10-01 16:43:03 fib1618: and as we have discussed before
2015-10-01 16:43:25 fib1618: until we see the MCO's move above the +50 level, with confidence, and then stay there
2015-10-01 16:43:35 fib1618: we're likely noting a classic bear market rally
2015-10-01 16:43:51 fib1618: just like the -50 levels held when we're moving higher
2015-10-01 16:44:14 fib1618: the equal and opposite is true during bear moves
2015-10-01 16:44:40 fib1618: note also the components on both the OEX and the Dow
2015-10-01 16:44:51 fib1618: that the 10% Trend has now barely moved above its zero line on the OEX
2015-10-01 16:45:24 fib1618: while the Dow 10% Trend has moved above its zero line, but the 5% has not
2015-10-01 16:46:05 fib1618: so until we can get the Dow 5% component moving higher again, the trend for money flow will remain flat to lower
2015-10-01 16:46:24 fib1618: small point change as well with the MID breadth MCO
2015-10-01 16:46:54 fib1618: while the 10% Component is bumping heads with the 5%
2015-10-01 16:47:24 fib1618: no bull divergence on the MCO there as well on the daily
2015-10-01 16:47:49 fib1618: and with the overall weakness of the bounce so far
2015-10-01 16:48:23 fib1618: all that has to happen here is a negative news event to open the trap door, and prices will fall right through
2015-10-01 16:49:03 fib1618: snapback to the zero line now complete on the SML breadth MCO
2015-10-01 16:49:26 fib1618: with the MCO highs of last week still above us
2015-10-01 16:49:47 fib1618: here we do have bullish divergence in place
2015-10-01 16:50:02 fib1618: but until we see last week's high point of last week taken out
2015-10-01 16:50:07 fib1618: there is no trigger
2015-10-01 16:50:35 fib1618: looks like a small Elliott 4th wave here as we touched upon on Tuesday
2015-10-01 16:50:51 fib1618: we also have an outside range day on the SML daily chart
2015-10-01 16:50:59 fib1618: so we should close lower on Friday
2015-10-01 16:51:13 fib1618: outside range on the MID as well
2015-10-01 16:51:43 fib1618: and being that both the MID and SML have been sending the best signals over the last two months
2015-10-01 16:52:00 fib1618: let's respect these range days for what they may suggest overall for Friday
2015-10-01 16:52:23 fib1618: and a small point change on the TM breadth MCO
2015-10-01 16:52:40 fib1618: as it remains below its zero line
2015-10-01 16:53:00 fib1618: and the TM MCO components are not showing what one would call "enthusiasm" at this time
2015-10-01 16:53:06 fib1618: so...
2015-10-01 16:53:12 fib1618: the table is set
2015-10-01 16:53:27 fib1618: and now we find out who's coming to breakfast
2015-10-01 16:53:37 fib1618: at this point
2015-10-01 16:53:44 orange: we have unemployment tomorrow don't we ?
2015-10-01 16:53:46 fib1618: we know that the move is likely to be large
2015-10-01 16:53:49 fib1618: yes
2015-10-01 16:53:57 fib1618: let me check to see what else is on the agenda
2015-10-01 16:54:31 fib1618: Factory orders
2015-10-01 16:54:58 fib1618: and SEVEN Fed Presidents and/or Governors are speaking at various engagements
2015-10-01 16:55:10 fib1618: didn't hear much from Yellen today
2015-10-01 16:55:24 fib1618: guess she's keeping "mum"
2015-10-01 16:55:28 fib1618: [smile]
2015-10-01 16:55:38 fib1618: OK...sectors
2015-10-01 16:56:08 fib1618: after moving to highly "oversold" on Tuesday with a -89 reading
2015-10-01 16:56:33 fib1618: the XLY breadth MCO has now provided for its obligatory snapback to or towards the zero line
2015-10-01 16:56:43 fib1618: coming in today with a -8 reading
2015-10-01 16:57:16 fib1618: no bullish divergence as yet
2015-10-01 16:57:55 fib1618: but it has been a nice advance after prices hit their downside target mentioned last Thursday
2015-10-01 16:58:14 fib1618: but looking at the components
2015-10-01 16:58:29 fib1618: there doesn't seem to be a lot of underlying strength with this reflex in prices
2015-10-01 16:58:46 fib1618: not enough there to get excited about...so pass
2015-10-01 16:59:10 fib1618: the XLP breadth MCO continues to remain above its zero line
2015-10-01 16:59:17 fib1618: and in doing so
2015-10-01 16:59:34 fib1618: is giving us a textbook example of what a "complex bullish structure" looks like
2015-10-01 16:59:53 fib1618: as we had texture going into the top
2015-10-01 17:00:13 fib1618: and we have had texture on the way down in testing the XLP breadth MCO zero line
2015-10-01 17:00:35 fib1618: this "complexity" in keeping the pattern above zero
2015-10-01 17:00:45 fib1618: has now moved the XLP breadth MCSUM back above its zero line
2015-10-01 17:00:55 fib1618: with a current reading of +143
2015-10-01 17:01:21 fib1618: strength is also seen in the components as well
2015-10-01 17:01:44 fib1618: making this sector still the one to watch as a short term proxy of impeding market strength (or weakness)
2015-10-01 17:01:51 fib1618: and when we take that view of things
2015-10-01 17:02:06 fib1618: prices have not be showing much in the way of leadership during this same time
2015-10-01 17:02:32 fib1618: and since this MCO has now been above its zero line for about a month
2015-10-01 17:02:49 fib1618: time is running out for the buyers to make it...or...break it
2015-10-01 17:03:05 fib1618: resistance here remains at the +250 level on the XLP breadth MCSUM
2015-10-01 17:03:21 fib1618: so after giving this sector a chance without success
2015-10-01 17:03:38 fib1618: better to hold and/or stand aside there and wait for more conviction...one way or the other
2015-10-01 17:03:58 fib1618: the XLE price chart continues to have its problems
2015-10-01 17:04:17 fib1618: as we are not seeing any upside follow through in the XLE breadth MCO
2015-10-01 17:04:32 fib1618: we do have a small point change though
2015-10-01 17:04:43 fib1618: but after listening to the talking heads today
2015-10-01 17:05:01 fib1618: it doesn't seem plausible that we've reached bottom as yet
2015-10-01 17:05:12 fib1618: and with the XLE breadth MCSUM still below the -1000 level
2015-10-01 17:05:30 fib1618: every single rally is going to have a real tough time in showing any real follow through
2015-10-01 17:05:34 fib1618: so standing aside there
2015-10-01 17:05:41 fib1618: unless you like to short
2015-10-01 17:05:45 fib1618: but even then
2015-10-01 17:05:53 fib1618: the easy part of that is behind us
2015-10-01 17:06:20 fib1618: small point change in the XLF breadth MCO
2015-10-01 17:06:44 fib1618: but the good news there is that we have taken out last weeks high point
2015-10-01 17:07:14 fib1618: with the bad news that we still have the highs of mid September still taunting us
2015-10-01 17:07:35 fib1618: and unless that level is taken out
2015-10-01 17:07:47 fib1618: we're not likely to move much above the XLF breadth MCSUM zero line with today's reading of a -17
2015-10-01 17:08:28 fib1618: another problem is with the chart action
2015-10-01 17:08:44 fib1618: which continues to sag lower in spite of the buyers showing better balance with the sellers
2015-10-01 17:09:11 fib1618: could be a heavily weighted issue or two providing this irregularity
2015-10-01 17:09:25 fib1618: but with the XLF breadth MCSUM below its zero line
2015-10-01 17:09:53 fib1618: this is not the time to try to outsmart what we have here to work with at face value...so watching and waiting there
2015-10-01 17:10:34 fib1618: after moving to a -124 level on Tuesday
2015-10-01 17:10:48 fib1618: the XLV breadth MCO has now fully snapped back to its zero line
2015-10-01 17:10:53 fib1618: and we have bull divergence in place
2015-10-01 17:11:13 fib1618: and a fairly strong one at that
2015-10-01 17:11:30 fib1618: looking at the XLV breadth MCSUM though
2015-10-01 17:11:51 fib1618: and we see that we have yet to meet the likely downside target of the -1000 level
2015-10-01 17:12:07 fib1618: and since its been a straight line move on the snapback
2015-10-01 17:12:35 fib1618: let's expect that some additional backing and filling will be necessary before the current downtrend is turned around
2015-10-01 17:13:08 fib1618: especially since the components remain as negative as they are
2015-10-01 17:13:17 fib1618: another one to watch there
2015-10-01 17:13:49 fib1618: snapback to the zero line complete on the XLI breadth MCO
2015-10-01 17:14:23 fib1618: and we turned lower today like we had our head hit a ceiling after jumping on a trampoline
2015-10-01 17:14:43 fib1618: no divergence noted here as well
2015-10-01 17:15:07 fib1618: so your run of the mill bear market rally it would seem
2015-10-01 17:15:14 fib1618: it should also be mentioned
2015-10-01 17:15:54 fib1618: that until the various reversal price bars that took place in mid September are taken out
2015-10-01 17:16:06 fib1618: prices will continue to be under an bearish influence
2015-10-01 17:16:22 fib1618: and the only way those levels will be taken out
2015-10-01 17:16:42 fib1618: is that the same internal point on the various MCO's will also have to be taken out as well to accomplish this
2015-10-01 17:16:49 fib1618: as it all works together
2015-10-01 17:17:06 fib1618: with money moving in advance and clearing the way for price to travel
2015-10-01 17:17:38 fib1618: bull divergence now in place on the XLB breadth MCO
2015-10-01 17:18:02 fib1618: so if anyone is holding short here, either cover or apply tight stops to lock in any profits made on the short side
2015-10-01 17:18:24 fib1618: with that said
2015-10-01 17:18:51 fib1618: the XLB breadth MCO, and its components, currently suggest corrective activity
2015-10-01 17:19:06 fib1618: so there's no real rush to cover...just be savvy
2015-10-01 17:19:51 fib1618: after being at minimally oversold on Tuesday
2015-10-01 17:20:05 fib1618: the XLK breadth MCO has regained positive territory
2015-10-01 17:20:20 fib1618: but has yet to take out the mid September highs
2015-10-01 17:20:41 fib1618: with the XLK MCO components still below their zero lines
2015-10-01 17:21:03 fib1618: this would suggest that we're likely tracing out a ledge formation in the XLK breadth MCSUM
2015-10-01 17:21:12 fib1618: and since ledges are built to fall off from
2015-10-01 17:21:31 fib1618: we should see another downside probe below the zero line as soon as Friday
2015-10-01 17:22:36 fib1618: the XLU breadth MCO continues to remain above its zero line
2015-10-01 17:22:46 fib1618: showing us another complex bullish structure
2015-10-01 17:23:26 fib1618: but today's outside range day is not consistent to prices rallying with this same underlying bullish tone
2015-10-01 17:23:41 fib1618: not only that
2015-10-01 17:24:04 fib1618: we now have two points of bear divergence in place now
2015-10-01 17:24:20 fib1618: so time to move to the sidelines on this one
2015-10-01 17:24:53 fib1618: nope...don't like the look of this one at all
2015-10-01 17:25:28 fib1618: still...those who are long may have a bit more time to decide
2015-10-01 17:25:44 fib1618: but hard stops are now suggested here...and any further buying put on hold
2015-10-01 17:25:47 fib1618: so...
2015-10-01 17:25:57 fib1618: there were some good points tonight
2015-10-01 17:26:10 fib1618: as the XLV and XLB appear to be bottoming
2015-10-01 17:26:42 fib1618: but there's still a real lack of conviction going on right now
2015-10-01 17:26:59 fib1618: and unless we see buying with both hands by Monday
2015-10-01 17:27:24 fib1618: it's very likely that the rest of October is going to be a rough one for the market bulls
2015-10-01 17:27:37 fib1618: on a side note
2015-10-01 17:28:13 fib1618: I've been seeing in the last couple of days a lot of folks using the bullish divergence in the MCO as their proxy that we have bottomed
2015-10-01 17:28:22 fib1618: and maybe so in the NYA
2015-10-01 17:28:48 fib1618: but we still don't have the uniformity in place for this thing to have a solid floor to work from
2015-10-01 17:29:06 fib1618: and "slight" forms of divergence aren't very strong either
2015-10-01 17:29:32 fib1618: so a final flush is not only expected...but it would be healthy as well to get the market back in sync
2015-10-01 17:30:26 fib1618: OBV's are on the sloppy side here
2015-10-01 17:30:40 fib1618: CVI's are showing better up volume of late
2015-10-01 17:30:54 fib1618: STVO's are struggling to get back to neutral
2015-10-01 17:31:12 fib1618: and the VTO's are now poking their collective heads above "oversold"
2015-10-01 17:31:41 fib1618: I will say this though
2015-10-01 17:32:22 fib1618: the last time I've seen the current price pattern configuration that did turn out to be a bottom for the bulls was back in late 1987 after the October collapse
2015-10-01 17:32:38 fib1618: even there we really didn't see divergence in the true technical sense
2015-10-01 17:32:48 fib1618: but we worked our way out of it anyway
2015-10-01 17:33:02 fib1618: in fact
2015-10-01 17:33:21 fib1618: in my mind's eye the resemblance is pretty darn close
2015-10-01 17:33:35 fib1618: give me a moment to bring up a chart of the 1987 affair...one sec
2015-10-01 17:34:46 fib1618: well...not quite...I'll post a chart - one sec
2015-10-01 17:36:17 fib1618: http://www.technicalwatch.com/chat15/dow1987100115.png
2015-10-01 17:36:38 fib1618: kinda similar as far as working our way out the situation
2015-10-01 17:37:39 fib1618: NYSE TRIN at .88
2015-10-01 17:37:53 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.20
2015-10-01 17:37:59 fib1618: still deeply "oversold"
2015-10-01 17:38:15 fib1618: NASDAQ TRIN at .88
2015-10-01 17:38:25 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.01
2015-10-01 17:38:48 fib1618: TM TRIN at .94
2015-10-01 17:38:57 fib1618: Open 10 at 1.10
2015-10-01 17:39:04 fib1618: so...
2015-10-01 17:39:11 fib1618: the Open 10's are leveling off a bit
2015-10-01 17:39:25 fib1618: which will allow prices to sag just a wee bit further
2015-10-01 17:39:45 fib1618: nothing as yet indicating that we'll get our tradable bottom next week though
2015-10-01 17:40:19 fib1618: and that we'll likely see volatility continue, with a bearish slant, unless the bulls belly up the the bar sooner than later
2015-10-01 17:40:22 fib1618: anything else?
2015-10-01 17:42:45 fib1618: let me check the BETS then...one moment
2015-10-01 17:43:59 fib1618: -75
2015-10-01 17:44:24 unc1998: If we are in a C wave of a flat on SPX back I assume the target would be the 200 ema
2015-10-01 17:44:36 fib1618: ummm...let me check
2015-10-01 17:44:58 fib1618: if it's a flat
2015-10-01 17:45:13 fib1618: the objective would be the top of wave A which would be the mid September highs
2015-10-01 17:45:29 fib1618: currently the 200 day EMA is at 2033
2015-10-01 17:45:30 unc1998: 200 ema is just above that
2015-10-01 17:46:01 fib1618: the intraday highs of mid September was 2020
2015-10-01 17:46:14 fib1618: and with the 200 day EMA moving lower day to day
2015-10-01 17:46:16 fib1618: sure
2015-10-01 17:46:32 unc1998: -75...ouch
2015-10-01 17:46:47 fib1618: but it will still have to get above the 50 day EMA which stopped the price pattern in its tracks
2015-10-01 17:46:58 fib1618: and currently its at 1988
2015-10-01 17:47:16 fib1618: so...I would give it a 30% chance with the currently underlying market strength (or lack of it)
2015-10-01 17:47:58 fib1618: doesn't seem like we're going to get much though with a -75 reading on the BETS though
2015-10-01 17:48:18 fib1618: remember that we only had...well, let me check
2015-10-01 17:49:13 fib1618: the BETS had a weekly reading of -65 on 9/11
2015-10-01 17:49:18 fib1618: before the final blow off
2015-10-01 17:49:31 fib1618: and peaked at -40 on 9/18
2015-10-01 17:49:50 fib1618: the next week though it was back to a -70
2015-10-01 17:50:12 fib1618: so not too indicative of a market that's attempting to create a bottom
2015-10-01 17:50:29 fib1618: a -55 or -60, OK
2015-10-01 17:50:34 fib1618: but not a lower low
2015-10-01 17:50:42 fib1618: because of this
2015-10-01 17:50:49 fib1618: better to be defensive than to hope
2015-10-01 17:51:03 fib1618: anything else?
2015-10-01 17:51:20 unc1998: not here...thanks as always
2015-10-01 17:51:28 fib1618: sure enough
2015-10-01 17:51:38 fib1618: at least we've had a lot of data to work with
2015-10-01 17:51:45 fib1618: not like the early summer months (yawn)
2015-10-01 17:51:53 fib1618: OK...with that
2015-10-01 17:51:56 fib1618: I'm going to take off
2015-10-01 17:52:03 fib1618: everyone have a terrific weekend
2015-10-01 17:52:12 fib1618: and we'll see how things look on Tuesday
2015-10-01 17:52:13 fib1618: good night


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