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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #1 
2012-10-11 16:00:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2012-10-11 16:00:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2012-10-11 16:00:35 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: Good. How are you Dave?
2012-10-11 16:00:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I think I'm OK...thanks for asking 
2012-10-11 16:01:11 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: You think? 
2012-10-11 16:01:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's been busy here
2012-10-11 16:01:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hopefully this isn't another trick
2012-10-11 16:01:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: business in the last 3 years is like starting a Model T
2012-10-11 16:01:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you crank the engine
2012-10-11 16:02:00 [Message] hossman -> Chat: Dave, I'm walking out the door to go to work (hopefully, I'll be back before the close of tonight's chat).  Two things.  First, we haven't heard from Randy (Mortiz) in quite a while.  Is he still around and well?  Second, if you get a chance, could you comment on gold tonight?  thanks.
2012-10-11 16:02:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it spurts and spits
2012-10-11 16:02:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then it dies
2012-10-11 16:02:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe it will chug along this time!
2012-10-11 16:02:27 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: Let's hope so!
2012-10-11 16:02:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Randy is fine
2012-10-11 16:02:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I am in contact with him each week
2012-10-11 16:02:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: he works at Rockwell
2012-10-11 16:02:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so they have been keeping him busy
2012-10-11 16:03:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'll tell him you asked about him
2012-10-11 16:03:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and gold?
2012-10-11 16:03:16 [Message] hossman -> Chat: good to hear.  I have always benefited from his studies.  I'm out of here!
2012-10-11 16:03:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: well we're consolidating the run up in August and September
2012-10-11 16:03:26 [Message] hossman -> Chat: just your thoughts, short term
2012-10-11 16:03:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still have an upside of $1945 to be met
2012-10-11 16:03:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and more than likely
2012-10-11 16:03:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the longer term target of $2250 is the goal
2012-10-11 16:04:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just looked at the chart
2012-10-11 16:04:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it found support at the 20 day EMA yesterday
2012-10-11 16:04:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and had a small reversal bar today
2012-10-11 16:04:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I would look for some upside follow through tomorrow
2012-10-11 16:05:02 [Message] hossman -> Chat: thanks Dave!
2012-10-11 16:05:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: meow...woof!!
2012-10-11 16:05:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any other questions or comments before we get started??
2012-10-11 16:05:45 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: I have an NDX related question....
2012-10-11 16:05:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hit me
2012-10-11 16:06:53 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: After looking  at the NDX data, it looks like, barring a huge up day tomorrow that the summations are going to break support at the -250 level...Do you think this would be a good place to start placing short positions if this happens?
2012-10-11 16:07:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we touched upon yesterday
2012-10-11 16:07:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it could be
2012-10-11 16:07:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the rest of the market remains bouyant right now
2012-10-11 16:07:36 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: very true
2012-10-11 16:07:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it could be hit and miss
2012-10-11 16:07:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the main comment from yesterday though
2012-10-11 16:07:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: was that of all of the index charts we cover in here
2012-10-11 16:08:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX seems to be the best one if one was so inclined to short
2012-10-11 16:08:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would have to dig a bit deeper though to give proper analysis to the question though
2012-10-11 16:08:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the bottom line is
2012-10-11 16:09:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as the bulls remain friendly to the NYSE and ARCA
2012-10-11 16:09:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and to a lesser degree the NASDAQ Composite
2012-10-11 16:09:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you were to short
2012-10-11 16:09:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you want to take any profits quickly and move on
2012-10-11 16:09:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it would not be a position trade as there is no trend to speak of
2012-10-11 16:09:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as long as the total market remains out of sync
2012-10-11 16:10:04 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: thanks....I will probably just sit and watch that index for now
2012-10-11 16:10:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would...
2012-10-11 16:10:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sometimes doing nothing and waiting for your set up is more advantageous than just chasing or thinking that you have to be in the market to some degree
2012-10-11 16:11:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I believe whole hardheartedly that being in cash IS a position just as being long or short
2012-10-11 16:11:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key here is to get as many ducks lined up as you can before you pull the trigger
2012-10-11 16:11:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for if you miss one...you might hit another in line
2012-10-11 16:11:55 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: I will be patient 
2012-10-11 16:12:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you only have one duck, and miss, so goes your chances for future profits
2012-10-11 16:12:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: discipline and patience are the very key to success
2012-10-11 16:12:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you get antsy...take a walk
2012-10-11 16:12:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: turn off the monitor
2012-10-11 16:13:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: spend time with a loved one
2012-10-11 16:13:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's like being in Vegas
2012-10-11 16:13:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you hear yelling and screaming at the craps table
2012-10-11 16:13:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because everyone is winning
2012-10-11 16:13:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but just as you get there...it dies
2012-10-11 16:13:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where you should had been at the table when the winning began
2012-10-11 16:14:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the important thing in all this is that the only one you're up against here is the market
2012-10-11 16:14:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it will do everything it can to part you from your money
2012-10-11 16:14:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no one cares if you win or lose
2012-10-11 16:15:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when they do care they only mention your failures
2012-10-11 16:15:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: never your winners
2012-10-11 16:15:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a business
2012-10-11 16:15:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just like it were a store front
2012-10-11 16:16:16 [Message] unc1998 -> Chat: yep...today was a good day...don't want to give it right back lol  thanks again
2012-10-11 16:16:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and people do that all the time
2012-10-11 16:16:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they have a winner and they think...my luck has changed..or I have the rhythm now...let's go to another trader
2012-10-11 16:17:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have to wait for our set up
2012-10-11 16:17:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not for one someone you follow says to move in or out
2012-10-11 16:17:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's like taxes
2012-10-11 16:17:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you have an accountant do for you
2012-10-11 16:17:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there's a mistake
2012-10-11 16:17:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: guess who's responsible?
2012-10-11 16:17:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you are
2012-10-11 16:18:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: have a plan
2012-10-11 16:18:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remain focused on that
2012-10-11 16:18:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hit singles not home runs
2012-10-11 16:18:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the home runs will only come if you make contact
2012-10-11 16:18:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after all
2012-10-11 16:19:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: people who play baseball go into the hall of fame just by being able to hit the ball 30% of the time!
2012-10-11 16:19:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means they get it wrong 70% of the time
2012-10-11 16:19:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AND....
2012-10-11 16:19:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they wait for their pitch to do so
2012-10-11 16:20:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...enough philosophy...let's get DP up and see what's happening
2012-10-11 16:21:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...NYSE breadth was 2:1 to the good today
2012-10-11 16:21:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2 1/2 to one on volume
2012-10-11 16:22:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sneaking accumulation there
2012-10-11 16:22:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is how you know there is accumulation
2012-10-11 16:22:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices remain under pressure
2012-10-11 16:22:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the balance of buying remains stable
2012-10-11 16:22:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving to minimally "oversold" on Wednesday
2012-10-11 16:23:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO bounced higher today
2012-10-11 16:23:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in its effort to snapback to or towards the zero line
2012-10-11 16:23:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components
2012-10-11 16:24:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that this snapback allowed the 5% Index to also meet its technical obligation of a snapback to its zero line
2012-10-11 16:24:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: because of this
2012-10-11 16:24:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Friday becomes the first of our important days in determining if a final rally is still in the cards or not
2012-10-11 16:25:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for we will need to see the 5% move back above its zero line if we'll have any chance to do so over the next week or two
2012-10-11 16:25:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM
2012-10-11 16:26:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that its now approaching horizontal pattern support with the inverted ledge pattern that we see in the August period
2012-10-11 16:26:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if the bulls still have enough energy to move to another rally attempt
2012-10-11 16:27:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be the area in which we should see a bounce in the MCSUM
2012-10-11 16:27:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the only way that's going to happen is if the MCO itself not only moves to its zero line for this support
2012-10-11 16:27:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but also back above the zero line so that we can get a move higher from this same area of support
2012-10-11 16:28:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE composite breadth MCO
2012-10-11 16:28:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here too we got an obligatory bounce
2012-10-11 16:29:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the components here
2012-10-11 16:29:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that the 10% Index also snapped back up to its zero line today
2012-10-11 16:29:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're back to being pretty much neutral overall
2012-10-11 16:29:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and like the CO MCSUM
2012-10-11 16:30:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the composite NYSE breadth MCSUM is also approaching a horizontal pattern of support
2012-10-11 16:30:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less the important +500 level
2012-10-11 16:30:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the cross currents as they are
2012-10-11 16:31:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would have to think that the market is not likely to decline in any important way until the +500 level of the NYSE breadth MCSUM is broken
2012-10-11 16:31:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: although the trading today doesn't smack of a market that actually has its sea legs right now
2012-10-11 16:31:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the price chart of the NYA
2012-10-11 16:32:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's probably going to take a break of this same +500 level in the MCSUM of the current pattern to be anything more than just a simple snapback of what were the previous highs of earlier this year
2012-10-11 16:33:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also saw a technical bounce today in the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2012-10-11 16:33:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the components here
2012-10-11 16:34:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that we have enough room still to where a full snapback to the zero line for the 5% Trend wouldn't be too surprising near term
2012-10-11 16:34:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also have to keep in mind
2012-10-11 16:34:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that money tends to move in advance of price by about 1-2 days
2012-10-11 16:34:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so today's firm tone to the internals should produce a better bounce for prices by Monday
2012-10-11 16:35:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as mentioned earlier in the chat
2012-10-11 16:36:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO moved to highly "oversold" on Wednesday
2012-10-11 16:36:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this will likely provide enough energy for the NDX breadth MCSUM to break below the -250 level as soon as Friday
2012-10-11 16:36:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2012-10-11 16:37:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would take quite a turn around on Friday to keep that from happening
2012-10-11 16:37:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given this
2012-10-11 16:37:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should expect the NDX breadth MCSUM to next challenge the -500 level
2012-10-11 16:38:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it a challenge of the 2700 level on the price chart
2012-10-11 16:38:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is now 19 points away from reaching that objective
2012-10-11 16:39:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wonder what was weak today in the NDX...one sec
2012-10-11 16:39:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: AAPL
2012-10-11 16:39:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes, down another 12
2012-10-11 16:39:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I see that
2012-10-11 16:39:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one sec
2012-10-11 16:39:45 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: the gap up was gold...
2012-10-11 16:40:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Costco
2012-10-11 16:40:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Dollar Tree down 7%
2012-10-11 16:41:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and Cerner
2012-10-11 16:41:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all the rest were down less than 1%
2012-10-11 16:41:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with many higher
2012-10-11 16:41:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2012-10-11 16:41:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on a cursory look
2012-10-11 16:41:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it looks like 1/2 were up and 1/2 were down today
2012-10-11 16:42:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we figure that AAPL is 15% of the weight
2012-10-11 16:42:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's about 10 NDX points alone
2012-10-11 16:42:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we were down 9
2012-10-11 16:42:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: apple still has the technical expectation of snapping back to its 50 day EMA
2012-10-11 16:43:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I wouldn't be loading up here on the short side until that takes place
2012-10-11 16:43:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: where is that?
2012-10-11 16:43:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right now...
2012-10-11 16:43:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 652
2012-10-11 16:43:46 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx
2012-10-11 16:44:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it goes along with the same idea of a technical reversal
2012-10-11 16:44:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: break the 20
2012-10-11 16:44:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: find support at the 50
2012-10-11 16:44:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: find resistance at the 20
2012-10-11 16:44:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: break the 50
2012-10-11 16:44:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapback to the 50
2012-10-11 16:44:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and down to the 200
2012-10-11 16:45:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you have a hammer stick on Apple on Tuesday
2012-10-11 16:45:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I wouldn't go short until I took out that tail
2012-10-11 16:45:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: famous last words
2012-10-11 16:45:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2012-10-11 16:46:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small bounce as well with the SPX breadth MCO
2012-10-11 16:46:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: snapbacks as well with the components
2012-10-11 16:46:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the SPX breadth MCSUM is now 126 data points away from its zero line
2012-10-11 16:47:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so sometime next week
2012-10-11 16:47:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the way this is setting up here
2012-10-11 16:47:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that if there's going to be a possibility of a down trend
2012-10-11 16:47:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will develop sometime toward the end of the month
2012-10-11 16:48:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after we see the MCSUM's bounce off their zero lines and 250 multiples
2012-10-11 16:48:26 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: does seem like the election is giving money the jitters
2012-10-11 16:48:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't worry about it
2012-10-11 16:48:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the people will have their say
2012-10-11 16:49:10 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I would never trade it, I'm an anti fundamentalist LOL
2012-10-11 16:49:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the important thing about the election is, and always will be, Congress
2012-10-11 16:49:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everything else is...well...a distraction
2012-10-11 16:49:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2012-10-11 16:49:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it may make the market jittery
2012-10-11 16:49:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like we talked about yesterday
2012-10-11 16:49:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when it comes to money and taxes
2012-10-11 16:50:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: people don't want to pay any more than they have to
2012-10-11 16:50:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but after tonight
2012-10-11 16:50:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I believe that a front runner will be known and carry through to the election
2012-10-11 16:50:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: well, even if they fix the fiscal cliff short term, you know they'll be last minute-they bite
2012-10-11 16:50:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: when jobs are hard to come by
2012-10-11 16:51:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: people are looking for substance than promises
2012-10-11 16:51:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll see how it goes
2012-10-11 16:51:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: small bounce as well in the OEX
2012-10-11 16:51:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: almost anemic
2012-10-11 16:52:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much like the sideways pattern we see in the OEX breadth MCSUM
2012-10-11 16:52:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no drive or conviction on both ends
2012-10-11 16:52:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I can't begin to tell you how rare it is to see these sideways structures in the MCSUM
2012-10-11 16:52:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if I have time this weekend
2012-10-11 16:53:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to pour over the data to 1926
2012-10-11 16:53:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and see if we've ever seen such indecision for such a prolonged period of time
2012-10-11 16:53:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow breadth MCO remains very weak here
2012-10-11 16:54:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so much of the selling again pretty much stayed with the large caps
2012-10-11 16:54:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I probably should look at the MID and SML first before making such remarks...so I will
2012-10-11 16:54:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yup...nice follow through strength today in the MID breadth MCO
2012-10-11 16:55:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and since we are now approaching the MID breadth MCSUM zero line
2012-10-11 16:55:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the expectation here is for more firmness over the next couple of days
2012-10-11 16:56:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also got a bounce in the SML breadth MCO
2012-10-11 16:56:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this was part of the general technical condition of the market if anything else
2012-10-11 16:56:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's kind of interesting now
2012-10-11 16:57:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where before we had a lack of selling that allowed money and prices to continue moving north
2012-10-11 16:57:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but now we have this same lack of selling but there isn't as much buying taking advantage of this
2012-10-11 16:58:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and an upward snapback in process in the TM breadth MCO
2012-10-11 16:58:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the TM breadth MCSUM remains high enough to keep prices from falling apart...at least for now
2012-10-11 16:58:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-10-11 16:58:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we got our technical bounce
2012-10-11 16:58:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but so far it looks like the "dead cat" variety
2012-10-11 16:59:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what's causing this indigestion right now is anyone's guess
2012-10-11 16:59:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as there are many things out there that we can point too
2012-10-11 16:59:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until we get some courage from one side or the other
2012-10-11 16:59:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're likely to continue to chop around...moving net sideways on the daily
2012-10-11 17:00:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what would be a clue as to if we do have a tradable top in place will come as soon as Friday
2012-10-11 17:00:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since the NDX breadth MCSUM will be breaking support
2012-10-11 17:00:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we all know that when you break support using this dynamic
2012-10-11 17:01:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's usually accompanied by something significant in the price pattern structure
2012-10-11 17:01:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see
2012-10-11 17:01:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the volume McClellan data
2012-10-11 17:01:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it appears that all of the volume MCO's also bounced higher today as well
2012-10-11 17:02:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the exception of the NDX
2012-10-11 17:02:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: going back to our earlier discussion on the NDX
2012-10-11 17:02:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with both the breadth and volume MCSUM's about to break down here
2012-10-11 17:03:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trade is kind of simple really
2012-10-11 17:03:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if I was going to work with it
2012-10-11 17:03:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you have technical resistance at the 2750 level
2012-10-11 17:03:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that would be my stop...let's say .10 over the highs of today
2012-10-11 17:03:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as far as a position concerned
2012-10-11 17:04:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's really a tough one
2012-10-11 17:04:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that the near term downside objective is only 20 points away
2012-10-11 17:04:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you're 30 points from your stop
2012-10-11 17:05:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which makes it a wash
2012-10-11 17:05:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so I guess you could butterfly it if you trade options
2012-10-11 17:05:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but other than that
2012-10-11 17:05:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would sit on my hands here and wait for a better set up
2012-10-11 17:05:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially since both the NDX breadth and volume MCO's are highly "oversold" right now
2012-10-11 17:05:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for you Elliotticians out there
2012-10-11 17:05:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what wave are we in?
2012-10-11 17:06:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: based on the position of the MCO and MCSUM?
2012-10-11 17:06:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since 3rd waves are always accompanied by the greatest in extremes in breadth and volume
2012-10-11 17:07:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we may have finished, or are about to finish, a 3rd wave lower
2012-10-11 17:07:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's correctional
2012-10-11 17:07:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be "c" of "A"
2012-10-11 17:07:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in either case
2012-10-11 17:07:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a bounce is now due
2012-10-11 17:07:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or we're darn close to seeing one
2012-10-11 17:07:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wait for the bounce
2012-10-11 17:07:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and THEN short
2012-10-11 17:07:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but here again
2012-10-11 17:08:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would sit and watch
2012-10-11 17:08:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially since Apple is due for a rally
2012-10-11 17:09:31 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: What sort of retracement are you expecting for the B wave?
2012-10-11 17:09:46 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: .5?
2012-10-11 17:09:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would expect a zig zag
2012-10-11 17:09:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so .618
2012-10-11 17:10:02 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: would fit well
2012-10-11 17:10:07 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep
2012-10-11 17:10:10 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: thanks
2012-10-11 17:10:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2815
2012-10-11 17:10:46 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: zigzag makes best sense here-good take
2012-10-11 17:10:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the reason for the zig zag is because of all of the inconsistencies we see right now
2012-10-11 17:10:58 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Would you expect more on the Dow as that is usually the last to be brought down?
2012-10-11 17:11:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and 2815 would be a 100 point rally
2012-10-11 17:11:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that would depress a lot of bears
2012-10-11 17:11:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while still maintaining the top beneath top structure
2012-10-11 17:11:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe even
2012-10-11 17:11:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the Dow moving to new highs
2012-10-11 17:12:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and getting the last of the weak bears to throw in the towel
2012-10-11 17:12:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then pull the plug
2012-10-11 17:12:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to be candid
2012-10-11 17:12:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there are many variables here
2012-10-11 17:12:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so take any idea here as just something to think about
2012-10-11 17:12:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once we get a better rhythm to the pattern
2012-10-11 17:13:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: than we can get better objectives to play with
2012-10-11 17:13:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for example
2012-10-11 17:13:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: look again at the NDX volume MCSUM
2012-10-11 17:13:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it's certainly not like the sellers are taking charge here
2012-10-11 17:14:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: compare the recent slide to the spring decline
2012-10-11 17:14:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where there prolonged bouts of selling
2012-10-11 17:14:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: here its been a push...and then a rest...another push...another rest
2012-10-11 17:14:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as if they're trying to chip away at the bull "wall" (of worry)
2012-10-11 17:15:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: really...the only real weak index here is the NDX
2012-10-11 17:15:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and its only down 5%
2012-10-11 17:16:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in spite of Apple being down 10%
2012-10-11 17:16:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that break of the August horizontal range though is a problem
2012-10-11 17:16:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it also serves as a snapback point as well
2012-10-11 17:16:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the zig zag
2012-10-11 17:17:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Dow volume MCO is still highly "oversold" here
2012-10-11 17:17:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's going to be very tough for the bears to move this index much lower from here
2012-10-11 17:18:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID volume MCO is now challenging last weeks highs
2012-10-11 17:18:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a break above that would keep the market, in general, very choppy given the NDX
2012-10-11 17:19:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM volume MCSUM looks like it will move below its zero line as soon as Friday
2012-10-11 17:19:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2012-10-11 17:19:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: there's not much in the way of buyer support right now
2012-10-11 17:19:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the sellers aren't too sure what to do either
2012-10-11 17:19:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the sellers are, however, gaining more and more confidence
2012-10-11 17:20:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there's still a lot of indecision going on here to where holding long positions and/or moving to cash is the best option for now
2012-10-11 17:20:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...this is as tough a market than I can remember
2012-10-11 17:21:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my sense though is suggesting that we're likely to just digest things for another couple of weeks
2012-10-11 17:21:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me take a quick look at the cumulative charts and see where the BETS is right now
2012-10-11 17:23:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: +25
2012-10-11 17:23:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a reading of +20 would be "go to cash"
2012-10-11 17:23:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see how things go on Friday...should be interesting
2012-10-11 17:23:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on to the volume oscillators
2012-10-11 17:24:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: mixed bag there
2012-10-11 17:24:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: quite a mess really
2012-10-11 17:24:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but looking at the NDX STVO and it's now "oversold"
2012-10-11 17:25:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should look for a nice bounce there near term...by Monday
2012-10-11 17:25:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll call the VTO's neutral...the Dow minimally "oversold"
2012-10-11 17:25:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the two areas that have been the weakest now have the best chance of a rally
2012-10-11 17:26:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hmmmm
2012-10-11 17:26:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at .84
2012-10-11 17:26:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: buying
2012-10-11 17:26:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.05
2012-10-11 17:26:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I still believe that any tradable top will be accompanied with a .80 reading in the Open 10
2012-10-11 17:27:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.15
2012-10-11 17:27:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.10
2012-10-11 17:27:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.12
2012-10-11 17:27:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.13
2012-10-11 17:27:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "oversold"
2012-10-11 17:27:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2012-10-11 17:28:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let's go with what we had yesterday...a technical bounce higher
2012-10-11 17:28:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this time one in which prices will hold their bounce
2012-10-11 17:28:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if they don't hold their bounce again
2012-10-11 17:28:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be bad news for any chance of a top coming next week per our blueprint of the mid October period
2012-10-11 17:29:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we have another one of "those days" like last Friday or today
2012-10-11 17:29:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would close my longs
2012-10-11 17:30:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as this would be not in keeping with our forecast
2012-10-11 17:30:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it would be...
2012-10-11 17:30:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "something different"
2012-10-11 17:30:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and "proven otherwise"
2012-10-11 17:30:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see how it goes
2012-10-11 17:30:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2012-10-11 17:31:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the 10% correction in Apple is also a worry here
2012-10-11 17:31:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we didn't get support at the 50 day EMA as we had in the past
2012-10-11 17:32:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hmmmm... wait
2012-10-11 17:32:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at a chart of Apple
2012-10-11 17:32:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I see that I'm incorrect
2012-10-11 17:32:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as its had two other instances in which it moved sharply below its 50 day EMA and recovered to new highs
2012-10-11 17:33:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: May and July of this year
2012-10-11 17:33:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we take out Tuesday's lows
2012-10-11 17:33:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be different
2012-10-11 17:33:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll watch for that
2012-10-11 17:34:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...since I know all of you want to get a front role seat for the debate tonight
2012-10-11 17:34:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2012-10-11 17:34:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great weekend
2012-10-11 17:34:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have 3 days next week
2012-10-11 17:34:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday to chat our little hearts away
2012-10-11 17:34:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and I look forward to it
2012-10-11 17:34:59 [Message] sp 112358 -> Chat: Have a good weekend
2012-10-11 17:35:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: thank you sir...
2012-10-11 17:35:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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