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Posts: 4,883
Reply with quote  #1 
2013-10-10 16:00:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2013-10-10 16:00:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2013-10-10 16:03:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2013-10-10 16:05:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let's get DP up and get started then
2013-10-10 16:06:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after moving to highly "oversold" on Tuesday
2013-10-10 16:06:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE CO breadth MCO continued to move sharply higher today
2013-10-10 16:06:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it settled right at the last reflex high we saw before last weeks collapse
2013-10-10 16:06:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in order to secure any price lows
2013-10-10 16:07:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will need to see this MCO, and all the MCO's, take out this comparable area of resistance
2013-10-10 16:08:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with two other reflex highs still above this one
2013-10-10 16:08:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls still have a lot to do before they can feel comfortable that a tradable low is upon us
2013-10-10 16:08:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components
2013-10-10 16:08:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that the 10% Trend has now snapped back to its zero line
2013-10-10 16:09:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the 5% fulfilling our expectation on Tuesday of a snapback to or towards its zero line over the last couple of days
2013-10-10 16:09:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so far then, our anticipated reflex rally has met the minimal objective of such an occurrence
2013-10-10 16:09:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and baring any near term follow through that we may see on Friday
2013-10-10 16:10:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until we overcome the MCO resistance points mentioned earlier
2013-10-10 16:10:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should continue to play the market with a defensive posture
2013-10-10 16:10:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also that the NYSE CO breadth MCSUM is making an all attempt to find support in and around the +250 level
2013-10-10 16:11:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given the above hurdles though
2013-10-10 16:11:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's not likely that we're going to hold
2013-10-10 16:11:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that a zero line challenge on the MCSUM is still to be anticipated
2013-10-10 16:12:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE Composite breadth MCO
2013-10-10 16:12:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we see that we also saw our obligatory bounce from "oversold" levels on Tuesday
2013-10-10 16:13:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but here we settled below the early October reflex highs
2013-10-10 16:13:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this tells us two things
2013-10-10 16:13:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one is that, like the CO, we will need to move above last weeks blip to take any further downside price action off the table for now
2013-10-10 16:13:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but more importantly
2013-10-10 16:14:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that today's advance was primarily driven by common stocks and NOT so much by interest rate sensitive issues
2013-10-10 16:15:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which, of course, is a pretty big negative to overcome before we're likely to see a new price trend to the upside
2013-10-10 16:15:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components here
2013-10-10 16:15:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we have met the minimal expectation now in our discussion on Tuesday on what would be likely outcome of the last couple of days
2013-10-10 16:16:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with both the 10% and 5% Trends snapping back toward and snapping back to their respected zero lines
2013-10-10 16:17:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so lots of fun today...but still a long way from being constructive
2013-10-10 16:17:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after a mid range close on Wednesday on the NASDAQ Composite index
2013-10-10 16:17:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which suggested an up close today
2013-10-10 16:17:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices actually gaped to the upside this morning
2013-10-10 16:18:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and closed near the highs of the day
2013-10-10 16:18:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: going back to our discussion of an ending diagonal on this price chart
2013-10-10 16:18:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's rally has now satisfied the technical expectation of a snapback to the line of violation of this pattern
2013-10-10 16:19:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NASDAQ breadth MCO
2013-10-10 16:19:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that it is nowhere near its zero line after today's 2.3% rally
2013-10-10 16:19:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and given the current positions of the NYSE data
2013-10-10 16:20:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one would surmise that we'll maybe only get to challenge last weeks reflex point in the MCO pattern before finally backing and filling today's upside thrust
2013-10-10 16:20:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the components here as well
2013-10-10 16:20:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they have also met their expectation of a simple snapback to their zero lines
2013-10-10 16:21:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so minus any near term momentum push from yesterday's action
2013-10-10 16:21:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: next week looks to be setting up to be a choppy one, with a bearish bias
2013-10-10 16:21:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at least for now
2013-10-10 16:22:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember also
2013-10-10 16:22:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that until we overcome our textural declining spikes on these MCO breadth charts
2013-10-10 16:22:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that our downside price objectives given earlier this week will still remain valid
2013-10-10 16:22:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's not get emotionally tied to this
2013-10-10 16:23:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we go about the first phases of constructing a foundation that would strong enough to where an advancing price sequence would be able to build on
2013-10-10 16:24:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much the same cautionary situation with the NDX breadth MCO and its MCSUM
2013-10-10 16:24:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just so you know
2013-10-10 16:24:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: reports from Washington have been very active on Tweeter in the last 10 minutes
2013-10-10 16:25:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with rumors of a settlement in progress
2013-10-10 16:25:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something like this would fit the technical expectation of seeing a probable continuation on Friday of today's advance
2013-10-10 16:25:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then a resumption lower early next week
2013-10-10 16:26:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's always good to remember that it's not the fundamentals that directly drive prices in one direction or the other
2013-10-10 16:26:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's the technical condition of money either moving in or out of the market that does this
2013-10-10 16:26:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: excuses on why things happen technically are a dime a dozen
2013-10-10 16:26:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but that's the business that we're in
2013-10-10 16:26:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway
2013-10-10 16:26:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving on
2013-10-10 16:27:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see we had another mid range close on the SPX on Wednesday
2013-10-10 16:27:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which gave us the lead off that we would close higher today
2013-10-10 16:27:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2013-10-10 16:27:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: today's close basically took away all the gains that the bears had for the month of October
2013-10-10 16:28:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...if anyone should ask, yes, it does go both ways [smile]
2013-10-10 16:28:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the SPX breadth MCO chart
2013-10-10 16:28:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we see that we have no less than 3 areas of pattern resistance still above current levels
2013-10-10 16:28:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less
2013-10-10 16:29:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCO zero line to overcome before the bulls will have anything to really snort about
2013-10-10 16:29:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but this shouldn't stop those who love to tweak others while riding the emotional waves that days like today generate
2013-10-10 16:30:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: zero line snapback on the 5% SPX breadth MCO component complete today
2013-10-10 16:30:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we can resume our current weakness at any time
2013-10-10 16:30:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but probably not until early next week
2013-10-10 16:30:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: reason?
2013-10-10 16:30:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: think of it this way
2013-10-10 16:31:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you're in your car
2013-10-10 16:31:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you push the accelerator pedal all the way to the floor to see how it feels to go from 0 to 60 in 7 seconds
2013-10-10 16:32:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even after you feel that adrenaline rush and take your foot off the pedal, you're gong to continue to push forward from the momentum generated by your applying this forward speed
2013-10-10 16:32:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it would make good sense to expect this kind of condition when the cash market opens in the morning
2013-10-10 16:32:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but at the same time
2013-10-10 16:33:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it probably won't hold up throughout the day
2013-10-10 16:33:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCO DID move above its two levels of pattern resistance today
2013-10-10 16:33:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if we compare the other MCO charts
2013-10-10 16:34:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that we have substantive proof that the majority of money that came in today moved into the cream stocks more than it did the broader market
2013-10-10 16:34:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no guesses here
2013-10-10 16:34:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see it in chart form
2013-10-10 16:34:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what we also know is
2013-10-10 16:35:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: short covering rallies are notoriously known to push the large caps ahead the rest of the broader market
2013-10-10 16:35:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this kind of configuration will always see some sort of reset just so we can get a better leadership configuration to where prices can actually trend.
2013-10-10 16:36:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the large caps following, and not leading, those stocks that are not as attractive to money
2013-10-10 16:36:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the other thing here with the OEX breadth MCO is that although we saw better strength here overall
2013-10-10 16:37:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we STILL have our blip resistance and the zero line resistance areas to overcome
2013-10-10 16:37:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's constructive
2013-10-10 16:37:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but certainly not tradable on the long side as yet
2013-10-10 16:38:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: pretty much the same situation with the Dow breath MCO
2013-10-10 16:38:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but look at how much weaker the MCO components are here if we compare this basket of 30 large cap issues to that of the OEX
2013-10-10 16:39:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...too far...too fast...and nothing substantive behind it
2013-10-10 16:39:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which...being the reasonable people that we are
2013-10-10 16:39:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should expect a lot more back and forth action before we can call the completion of a bottom
2013-10-10 16:40:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a nice robust snapback as well with the MID breadth MCO
2013-10-10 16:40:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it too remains below its blip resistance and zero line area
2013-10-10 16:40:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so, if anything, we've relieved our highly "oversold" extreme if nothing else
2013-10-10 16:40:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: same situation with the SML breadth MCO
2013-10-10 16:41:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the SML price chart
2013-10-10 16:41:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we closed within 4 points of the all time closing highs today
2013-10-10 16:41:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but where is the underlying foundation to support this?
2013-10-10 16:41:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right...there is none
2013-10-10 16:42:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: things like this provide a rather easy and logical place to execute a trade
2013-10-10 16:42:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in this case...that of being short
2013-10-10 16:42:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since the time clock starts ticking as soon as you enter the trade, you want to be able to time your sell as close to the actual point of "deliverance" than to wait around for something to happen
2013-10-10 16:43:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so with this kind of negative performance in place on the daily
2013-10-10 16:43:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one only need now to use the lesser time frames to "pick a spot", with an appropriate stop, as part of your trading plan
2013-10-10 16:43:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not surprisingly
2013-10-10 16:44:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have the same kind of lack of amplitude in the TM breadth MCO with the components only snapping back to their zero lines
2013-10-10 16:44:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as the other MCO components have also shown
2013-10-10 16:44:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we remain in a bearish crossover configuration
2013-10-10 16:45:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2013-10-10 16:45:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we got our reflex rally today
2013-10-10 16:45:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the market as "oversold" as it was
2013-10-10 16:45:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: including the numbers in the NYSE Open 10
2013-10-10 16:45:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also saw quite a release of energy today
2013-10-10 16:46:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: very much like taking the weight off a pressure cooker
2013-10-10 16:46:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we exploded higher
2013-10-10 16:46:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now that's out of the way
2013-10-10 16:46:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can now go back to doing business "as usual"
2013-10-10 16:46:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the sectors
2013-10-10 16:47:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that we got a very good "oversold" pop to the upside as well on the XLY breadth MCO over the last couple of days
2013-10-10 16:47:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the downside target on the XLY remains at $57.50
2013-10-10 16:48:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP breadth MCO is now showing better character now
2013-10-10 16:48:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we broke above all of our prior failure points in the pattern
2013-10-10 16:48:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and closed today just shy of the zero line with a reading of -7
2013-10-10 16:48:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we have seen so many times in the past
2013-10-10 16:49:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what usually happens when the market begins to attempt to create a bottom
2013-10-10 16:49:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we usually see money move first into the areas in which "value" is perceived
2013-10-10 16:50:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: value, in this case, are issues in which people generally use for products or services as they go about their daily lives
2013-10-10 16:50:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: consumers staples, healthcare and utilities all fit within this idea
2013-10-10 16:50:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so they are usually the first sectors to firm up after we see correctional sequences in the marketplace
2013-10-10 16:50:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this time should prove to be no different
2013-10-10 16:51:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...
2013-10-10 16:51:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: given that the components of the XLP breadth MCO still remain well below their zero line
2013-10-10 16:51:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the technical expectation here would be for a failure to move above the MCO zero line on this go round
2013-10-10 16:52:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and for this MCO to snapback down to or toward those same pattern spikes in the pattern
2013-10-10 16:52:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and once we get that reset
2013-10-10 16:52:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: both the MCO and it's components should simultaneous make a combined effort to then go back above their zero lines
2013-10-10 16:52:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in the meantime
2013-10-10 16:53:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still have a downside price target of 39 still on the table for the XLP
2013-10-10 16:53:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll watch to see how the XLP breadth MCSUM as it plays with the lows of early September
2013-10-10 16:54:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLE breadth MCO also reflexed higher today
2013-10-10 16:55:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and pretty much met the objective of snapping back to what was the near term rising bottoms line we see on the MCO from earlier this month
2013-10-10 16:55:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the angle of ascent though is a bit on the acute side
2013-10-10 16:55:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so for simplicity
2013-10-10 16:55:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll use the zero line itself as a probable target for this near term divergent sequence
2013-10-10 16:56:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also how the current pattern in the MCO is also slowing the rate of descent in the XLE breadth MCSUM right at the natural support level of -250
2013-10-10 16:56:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there remains a great deal of order in what is going on right now
2013-10-10 16:57:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sort of like being on rough seas where things are choppy above the water line
2013-10-10 16:57:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but below the water line it's not nearly as turbulent
2013-10-10 16:57:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: full zero line snapback on the XLF breadth MCO now complete
2013-10-10 16:58:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is not at all surprising given the current pattern on the XLF breadth MCSUM
2013-10-10 16:58:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as it too is now challenging its zero line with a +1 reading
2013-10-10 16:58:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this sector is now dead neutral
2013-10-10 16:58:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and when we get this way
2013-10-10 16:58:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we know that one side is about to take control near term
2013-10-10 16:59:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another observation here is when we look at the yearly chart of the XLF breadth MCSUM
2013-10-10 16:59:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice how this latest downside sequence is choppy at best, but pretty much compressed as to each individual posting
2013-10-10 17:00:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this tells us that contrary to what the majority may believe
2013-10-10 17:00:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this sector is holding up quite well right now
2013-10-10 17:00:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and because of this
2013-10-10 17:00:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it is likely to be a leader to the upside once the buyers are able to provide a firmer technical bottom to work with
2013-10-10 17:01:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV breadth MCO also snapped back towards its pattern resistance area today
2013-10-10 17:01:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the buyers still need to make a statement there
2013-10-10 17:02:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the XLV components also having completed the minimum expectation of a snapback of their own
2013-10-10 17:02:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see if we get any more defensive flows into this sector or not
2013-10-10 17:03:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLI remains fairly weak here as it settled today with a -45 reading
2013-10-10 17:03:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however, it did break above its accelerated declining tops line
2013-10-10 17:03:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the pressure is somewhat off
2013-10-10 17:04:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and given that it's supporting one of the weakest numbers of all the MCO's we've covered so far
2013-10-10 17:04:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should expect to see continued upside follow thorough on this sector on Friday as it plays catch up
2013-10-10 17:05:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which probably means that the Dow Industrials and Transports will have a decent day of it
2013-10-10 17:05:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB breadth MCO also came to the party today
2013-10-10 17:06:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but notice how the XLB breadth MCSUM showed an expanded gap to the downside on Wednesday as it broke below the -250 natural support level
2013-10-10 17:06:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all in all
2013-10-10 17:06:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: nothing has really changed on the precious metals
2013-10-10 17:07:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so it's probably going to continue to be a tough pull here with this sector
2013-10-10 17:07:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: tops beneath tops continue to control the XLK breadth MCO pattern
2013-10-10 17:08:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but taking ruler to monitor on the XLK breadth MCSUM
2013-10-10 17:08:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that today's reading on the MCSUM is resting right on the rising bottoms line connecting the June and September lows
2013-10-10 17:09:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so this would be great spot for the buyers to flex their muscles
2013-10-10 17:09:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and in order for this to happen
2013-10-10 17:09:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we need to see the XLK breadth MCO to snapback fully to its zero line as early as Friday
2013-10-10 17:10:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and doing this would would provide an upside breakout of this same declining series of tops
2013-10-10 17:10:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: like we always say
2013-10-10 17:10:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it MUST all work together for a pattern to reach a desired goal
2013-10-10 17:10:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's watch the tech sector on will likely lead any follow through from today's party
2013-10-10 17:11:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and as we mentioned early
2013-10-10 17:11:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another of our defensive sectors, the XLU, actually gave us a buy signal today
2013-10-10 17:11:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and remembering back to last week
2013-10-10 17:11:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have this large symmetrical pattern working here on the XLU price chart
2013-10-10 17:12:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so one could lead off here on the potential of an upside breakout given the current strength in the XLU breadth MCO
2013-10-10 17:13:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:  no less the technical condition of a bottom above a bottom in the XLU breadth MCSUM right at the -500 level
2013-10-10 17:13:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but just keep in mind
2013-10-10 17:13:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that since this MCSUM is still negative
2013-10-10 17:13:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what is likely to happen here
2013-10-10 17:13:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is for an upside breakout of the triangle
2013-10-10 17:13:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then a snapback to this same breakout line to allow the MCSUM to continue to improve
2013-10-10 17:14:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and THEN that should be the ultimate buy point
2013-10-10 17:14:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus
2013-10-10 17:14:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: something like this would also allow the rest of the market to finish up with its goal of providing a better supportive bottom for prices to actually have chance to trend higher
2013-10-10 17:14:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2013-10-10 17:15:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: much of the market remains in a corrective condition
2013-10-10 17:15:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with our near term blueprint of Tuesday suggesting an reflex rally was to be anticipated
2013-10-10 17:15:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we now have a platform for a new map to follow
2013-10-10 17:15:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where we should see some additional upside follow through by Monday
2013-10-10 17:16:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and after that a period of about 7-10 days of back and fill as the process begins to provide a foundation from where prices can not only rally, but sustain this same positive bias
2013-10-10 17:17:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's nailed our price turn again
2013-10-10 17:17:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: an now are back above their zero lines
2013-10-10 17:17:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's remain "oversold"
2013-10-10 17:17:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which allows the idea of some further follow through to the upside near term to relieve this same condition
2013-10-10 17:18:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's are now in the process of providing our actual tradable bottom as they are now all below their zero lines
2013-10-10 17:18:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NYSE TRIN came in with a .45 reading today
2013-10-10 17:19:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: suggesting short covering by and large
2013-10-10 17:19:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the Open 10 no longer "oversold" with a .97 reading
2013-10-10 17:20:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the two 2.00 readings of the last week will push us back below 1.00 by the middle part of next week
2013-10-10 17:20:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at .52
2013-10-10 17:20:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so not so much short covering there
2013-10-10 17:20:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and probably why the NASDAQ and NDX didn't match today's strength that we saw in the NYSE and especially in the large caps in general
2013-10-10 17:21:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at .47
2013-10-10 17:21:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 there at .98
2013-10-10 17:21:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2013-10-10 17:21:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all in all we got our technical bounce
2013-10-10 17:22:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this bounce also relieved much of the downside pressure of selling that we've seen over the last couple of weeks
2013-10-10 17:22:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: from here we're likely to see a firm to up day on Friday
2013-10-10 17:22:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then another swoon should take place sometime next week
2013-10-10 17:23:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this swoon will likely create our first divergence point
2013-10-10 17:23:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if we can actually take out the spike highs in the MCO pattern on Friday or Monday
2013-10-10 17:23:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then Tuesday's price lows will provide some good short term support to the price pattern
2013-10-10 17:24:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but if we don't move above these resistance points
2013-10-10 17:24:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: then any swoon we'll likely see will include lower price lows
2013-10-10 17:25:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and, of course, this would eventually be part of our creating bullish momentum divergence before then attempting to move to new highs once more
2013-10-10 17:25:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all in a perfect technical world, of course [wink]
2013-10-10 17:25:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2013-10-10 17:25:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...for you Elliottician's out there
2013-10-10 17:25:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is a perfect example of a "B" wave
2013-10-10 17:25:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: where the rally is sharp
2013-10-10 17:26:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we don't have the underlying support
2013-10-10 17:26:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: "it smells"
2013-10-10 17:26:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so using this methodology
2013-10-10 17:26:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's pretty much a given that we will, in fact, see lower price lows before this is all over
2013-10-10 17:26:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: AND
2013-10-10 17:27:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will likely all take place in concert in reaching our downside price objectives given by the MCO's on Tuesday
2013-10-10 17:27:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: fun, fun, fun! [smile]
2013-10-10 17:28:03 [Message] tracca -> Chat: thank you.
2013-10-10 17:28:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not a problem
2013-10-10 17:28:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm just sharing with you what you already knew! [smile]
2013-10-10 17:29:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how have you been Murat?
2013-10-10 17:29:03 [Message] tracca -> Chat: well, I wish that was true
2013-10-10 17:29:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't be emotional
2013-10-10 17:29:15 [Message] tracca -> Chat: doing good actually, better than before
2013-10-10 17:29:25 [Message] tracca -> Chat: no emotions
2013-10-10 17:29:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good
2013-10-10 17:29:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: focus...discipline...have a plan
2013-10-10 17:29:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: [smile]
2013-10-10 17:29:52 [Message] tracca -> Chat: exactly.
2013-10-10 17:29:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know the drill
2013-10-10 17:30:06 [Message] tracca -> Chat: I learned through the hard way
2013-10-10 17:30:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we all have
2013-10-10 17:30:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's the beauty here
2013-10-10 17:30:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have all been where another has been
2013-10-10 17:30:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's a process
2013-10-10 17:30:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to strip away what you learned
2013-10-10 17:30:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then accept what is and what isn't
2013-10-10 17:31:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the biggest thing to take away from trading is that...
2013-10-10 17:31:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you will never be ALWAYS right
2013-10-10 17:31:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but you just want to have the best odds going for you
2013-10-10 17:31:52 [Message] tracca -> Chat: the rules of the game
2013-10-10 17:32:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...anything else?
2013-10-10 17:32:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...then I'm going to take off
2013-10-10 17:32:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a super duper weekend
2013-10-10 17:32:36 [Message] tracca -> Chat: you too
2013-10-10 17:32:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll see how things are shaking on Wednesday
2013-10-10 17:32:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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