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fib_1618

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Posts: 4,492
Reply with quote  #1 
2012-10-10 16:00:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good day
2012-10-10 16:00:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how is everyone?
2012-10-10 16:00:27 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Great, and you?
2012-10-10 16:00:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hangin in there!
2012-10-10 16:01:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I guess that AAPL put did wonders for your trading account?
2012-10-10 16:01:15 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: not bad...
2012-10-10 16:01:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ha!
2012-10-10 16:01:37 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: what a set up, classic
2012-10-10 16:01:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: certainly was
2012-10-10 16:01:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you gave out the pattern in detail...and no one cared to follow up with you
2012-10-10 16:02:07 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nope, LOL
2012-10-10 16:02:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...any questions or comments before we get started??
2012-10-10 16:02:38 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: if it was a fundamental trade they would have
2012-10-10 16:02:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not even then
2012-10-10 16:02:57 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: probably not
2012-10-10 16:02:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you know...
2012-10-10 16:03:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if you keep calling a decline in anything eventually you're going to be right
2012-10-10 16:03:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to wit
2012-10-10 16:03:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone did notice the rally failure we had on Friday?
2012-10-10 16:03:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: right?
2012-10-10 16:03:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course you did
2012-10-10 16:04:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I haven't looked at the internals since Saturday
2012-10-10 16:04:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lets see how plurality was first
2012-10-10 16:04:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hmmm...a 1% decline in the Dow
2012-10-10 16:05:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not even 2:1 negative?
2012-10-10 16:05:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 1151/1883
2012-10-10 16:05:29 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: oils hit the Dow pretty good
2012-10-10 16:05:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the higher weighted components must had done the damage...
2012-10-10 16:05:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me look
2012-10-10 16:05:47 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: chevron
2012-10-10 16:06:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes, down 5%
2012-10-10 16:06:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the second highest weighting in the Dow at 7%
2012-10-10 16:07:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: IBM down 1%
2012-10-10 16:07:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it has a 11% weighting
2012-10-10 16:07:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CAT
2012-10-10 16:07:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 5% weighting
2012-10-10 16:07:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so it goes
2012-10-10 16:08:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...let me get DP up and we'll get started
2012-10-10 16:08:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: before we do
2012-10-10 16:08:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: last Thursday we were looking for an opportunity to break out to the upside of our horizontal range
2012-10-10 16:09:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: all looked good at the open...
2012-10-10 16:09:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the market continued to sag through out the day
2012-10-10 16:09:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we had a mid range close
2012-10-10 16:09:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this was a typical rally failure
2012-10-10 16:09:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with the mid range close suggesting some backing and filling would be necessary before another chance to break above resistance
2012-10-10 16:09:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Monday was OK
2012-10-10 16:10:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but Tuesday and Wednesday the bulls really took it on the chin
2012-10-10 16:10:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: coincidentally
2012-10-10 16:10:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we also had many of the MCSUM's at important support lines
2012-10-10 16:10:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: either trend wise or horizontally
2012-10-10 16:10:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can bet that this was the trigger for the breakdown we saw in prices over the last couple of days
2012-10-10 16:11:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...let's take a look around and see what we have
2012-10-10 16:11:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: after failing to move above the zero line on Friday
2012-10-10 16:11:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the CO NYSE breadth MCO has moved lower
2012-10-10 16:11:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and has now taken out its blip support area in the pattern
2012-10-10 16:12:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is not good news for the bulls
2012-10-10 16:12:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as this break of blip support suggests that we're likely now to break below the lows of last week
2012-10-10 16:13:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this breakdown is also moving the CO NYSE breadth MCSUM sharply lower
2012-10-10 16:13:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is now testing its +250 level
2012-10-10 16:13:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but with the break of blip support
2012-10-10 16:13:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our expectation now is for a full decline to or towards the McSUM zero line before we're likely to find multi week support
2012-10-10 16:14:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this also supports the idea that we're not going to be much passed the mid October forecast of a tradable top
2012-10-10 16:14:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...in order for this to change
2012-10-10 16:14:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we will need to see the MCO hold in and around these current levels
2012-10-10 16:15:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and see NYA prices close below the lows of a couple of weeks ago
2012-10-10 16:15:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this would provide our divergence in which we talked about as one option back in mid September
2012-10-10 16:15:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so until the previous lows are taken out
2012-10-10 16:16:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls remain in control as shown by the series of bottoms above bottoms in the NYSE CO breadth MCO chart
2012-10-10 16:16:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: however...
2012-10-10 16:16:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we look at the components
2012-10-10 16:16:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see that the 5% has already moved to lower lows now
2012-10-10 16:17:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so have to reduce the possibility of a divergent low here and that any bounce would only be part of a final move higher in prices before a more significant correction actually takes place
2012-10-10 16:17:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oy...
2012-10-10 16:18:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to the NYSE breadth composite MCO
2012-10-10 16:18:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here we have already taken out the previous MCO lows
2012-10-10 16:18:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so that pretty much puts a fork in it
2012-10-10 16:19:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as far as possibly extending the current advancing price structure much beyond any final phase blow-off
2012-10-10 16:19:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is still the expectation given that the NYSE breadth MCSUM remains well above its zero line at this time
2012-10-10 16:19:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less
2012-10-10 16:19:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: above the important +500 level
2012-10-10 16:20:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should expect some surprises by the bulls still yet to come before we go into a full defensive position
2012-10-10 16:20:19 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: the blow off may make for some nice VST trading
2012-10-10 16:20:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice also that both the 10% and 5% components have now taken out their previous lows as well
2012-10-10 16:20:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they remain out of sync with the MCO itself suggesting corrective activity
2012-10-10 16:21:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it will Lew
2012-10-10 16:21:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and it will give us all the opportunity to bank final profits on the long side
2012-10-10 16:21:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: at this point though
2012-10-10 16:21:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still don't have anything suggesting that a down trend is under construction
2012-10-10 16:22:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only that there will be a larger trading range unfolding here
2012-10-10 16:22:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ISEE got to 76 yesterday
2012-10-10 16:22:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're due for a bounce...maybe a significant one
2012-10-10 16:22:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and today was WWW
2012-10-10 16:22:58 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: if we did a blow off 5th, would the internals be divergent in a way that other indicators are?
2012-10-10 16:23:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2012-10-10 16:23:29 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx
2012-10-10 16:23:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you always have divergences in wave 5
2012-10-10 16:23:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remember
2012-10-10 16:23:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MCSUM is still very high here
2012-10-10 16:24:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means that the 19 day EMA and the 39 day EMA's are still wide apart from each other
2012-10-10 16:24:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this will provide support, and the market will move to "oversold" readings quite quickly
2012-10-10 16:24:54 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...as a chartist
2012-10-10 16:25:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have now seen a full snapback again to what was the previous price highs of this year
2012-10-10 16:25:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so what could be happening here, maybe, is that traders are about to take a wait and see attitude towards the elections
2012-10-10 16:25:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and depending on what happens with Congress especially
2012-10-10 16:26:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then decide what to do as far as their holdings are concerning
2012-10-10 16:26:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remember
2012-10-10 16:26:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that capital gains taxes would go up from 15% to 25% (or more) if things remain the same
2012-10-10 16:26:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that's a lot of extra tax
2012-10-10 16:26:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if there is a majority shift to the right in November
2012-10-10 16:27:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would help in pushing for an extension to the current tax rates into 2013
2012-10-10 16:27:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no less the progressive tax rates
2012-10-10 16:27:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no matter
2012-10-10 16:27:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the trend is mature
2012-10-10 16:27:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's done a lot of work over the last 5 months
2012-10-10 16:28:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we're entitled to a rest
2012-10-10 16:28:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NASDAQ breadth MCO moved to lower lows yesterday
2012-10-10 16:28:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so no divergence here
2012-10-10 16:29:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we did have a small point change today though of +1
2012-10-10 16:29:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the NASDAQ breadth MCSUM
2012-10-10 16:29:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and you can see how important it was to have held the +250 level last Friday
2012-10-10 16:29:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: once buyers couldn't push money on the buy side
2012-10-10 16:30:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we broke below this level on Monday
2012-10-10 16:30:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and down we went over the last two days
2012-10-10 16:30:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we should now expect this MCO to stay pretty much below its zero line now for about 3-4 weeks
2012-10-10 16:31:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that should provide a test of the last MCSUM support level seen on the chart at around the -250 level as well
2012-10-10 16:31:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX breadth MCO also shows a great example of what can happen if the zero line isn't violated on a snapback
2012-10-10 16:32:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we found resistance on Friday
2012-10-10 16:32:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we're showing increasing expansion to the downside
2012-10-10 16:32:34 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nasty posting there..
2012-10-10 16:32:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we also broke chart support today as well
2012-10-10 16:33:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we've probably seen our top there
2012-10-10 16:33:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 2 weeks early
2012-10-10 16:33:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we now have a top beneath a top
2012-10-10 16:33:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the NDX breadth MCO moved to new lows
2012-10-10 16:34:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: making the last couple of days of decline as either wave 3 or wave C
2012-10-10 16:34:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: near term support for the NDX comes in at the 2700 level
2012-10-10 16:34:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we closed at 2728 today
2012-10-10 16:34:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so not much more downside here is expected
2012-10-10 16:35:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the SPX breadth MCO also wasn't able to show any upside follow through on Friday
2012-10-10 16:35:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looking at the SPX breadth MCSUM
2012-10-10 16:36:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the +250 level was evidently too much to overcome
2012-10-10 16:36:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and so a zero line test is now indicated
2012-10-10 16:36:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially since we took out the series of bottoms above bottoms today
2012-10-10 16:36:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: remembering back to last week
2012-10-10 16:37:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: either we find support and use such structures as a platform
2012-10-10 16:37:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or we turn and fail
2012-10-10 16:37:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it looks like the later
2012-10-10 16:37:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll see how things go when we're neutral again
2012-10-10 16:38:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the OEX breadth MCSUM is holding in there for now
2012-10-10 16:38:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the depth of the plunge of the OEX breadth MCO isn't suggesting that current levels are likely to hold
2012-10-10 16:38:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: another thing to remember here
2012-10-10 16:39:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the MCO declines we've seen so far have no texture again
2012-10-10 16:39:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so once the selling is done...we're likely to move sharply in the opposite direction
2012-10-10 16:39:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that can happen at any time now
2012-10-10 16:39:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the one thing we should stress here is not to get too beared up
2012-10-10 16:40:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the bulls still hold the position of power based on the positions of the MCSUM's
2012-10-10 16:40:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unless, of course, you're working with the NDX
2012-10-10 16:40:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and there the sellers have the upper hand for now
2012-10-10 16:41:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note the lower lows in the Dow breadth MCO today
2012-10-10 16:41:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with it
2012-10-10 16:41:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: prices were able to break below their horizontal support levels
2012-10-10 16:41:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...
2012-10-10 16:41:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: these things will always work together
2012-10-10 16:42:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: note also the way the Dow breadth MCSUM was turned away from its +500 level
2012-10-10 16:42:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have some bear divergence there as well
2012-10-10 16:42:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: again...it must be pointed out
2012-10-10 16:43:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that the last 2 months of stock activity has been more of a pick and choose than it would be to play the entire market kind of market
2012-10-10 16:43:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my long positions, for example, have done quite well in holding their levels from last Thursday
2012-10-10 16:44:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but last Friday's failure was not good news for the intermediate term trend
2012-10-10 16:44:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it kind of reminded me of the 6/6/2003 highs that took place on the day of the jobs numbers then too
2012-10-10 16:44:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that led to a correctional period of about 2 months
2012-10-10 16:45:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: let me double check the date...one sec
2012-10-10 16:46:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hmmm...can't find it
2012-10-10 16:46:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I believe it was either 2003 or 2004...now it's bothering me...one sec
2012-10-10 16:47:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes...2003
2012-10-10 16:47:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but I forgot that we rallied for 2 more weeks before the 2 month correction
2012-10-10 16:48:07 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: sounds right...
2012-10-10 16:48:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now here's something interesting
2012-10-10 16:48:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the MID breadth MCO remains above its blip support level
2012-10-10 16:48:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this means it's diverging with the current lower lows in the MID price chart
2012-10-10 16:49:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we have the possibility now of bull divergence in the MID
2012-10-10 16:49:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and with the MID breadth MCO topping out at +750 and now approaching the zero line
2012-10-10 16:50:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we still should expect some sort of divergent high with the MCSUM before we really get into a longer term correctional period
2012-10-10 16:50:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so good news there for the bulls and what we were looking forward to happening a couple of weeks ago
2012-10-10 16:50:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: unfortunately though
2012-10-10 16:50:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this expectation included all of the other indices to diverge as well
2012-10-10 16:51:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that's not happening
2012-10-10 16:51:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or to be more precise
2012-10-10 16:51:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it didn't happen
2012-10-10 16:51:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one thing that it does tell us though
2012-10-10 16:51:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: is that the market is now out of sync
2012-10-10 16:51:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is not likely to trend in either direction
2012-10-10 16:52:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so the likelihood of a some sort of trading range is taking the front seat here
2012-10-10 16:52:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is good for you short term traders
2012-10-10 16:52:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: back to using your oscillators
2012-10-10 16:52:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: mid range close on the SML
2012-10-10 16:52:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should close higher on Thursday
2012-10-10 16:53:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we also got a small bounce in the SML breadth MCO to go with it
2012-10-10 16:53:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so let's look for a technical pattern bounce over the near term up to the 466 level
2012-10-10 16:54:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a break of support in the TM breadth MCO
2012-10-10 16:54:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but looking at the components
2012-10-10 16:54:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we remain in a corrective sequence here
2012-10-10 16:54:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with no indication of a downside trend development
2012-10-10 16:55:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is good to know as it doesn't give you a sense of urgency in closing any longs we might still have open
2012-10-10 16:55:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-10-10 16:55:39 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: a rally failure, and some technical damage has now occurred
2012-10-10 16:55:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: much of this is to be expected in a mature trend
2012-10-10 16:56:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and even more so if it happens as we approach forecasts from the MCSUM as to the time where this same trend is likely to exhaust itself
2012-10-10 16:56:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we seem to be pretty much on the money in that respect
2012-10-10 16:56:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as far the NDX is concerned
2012-10-10 16:57:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: any rally there should be sold...and then to stand aside
2012-10-10 16:57:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and only moving short if the -250 level is violated
2012-10-10 16:57:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking at the sector data
2012-10-10 16:58:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLY continues to hold blip support
2012-10-10 16:58:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and is now minimally "oversold"
2012-10-10 16:58:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with no texture there to speak of to concern ourselves with
2012-10-10 16:59:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLP breadth MCO has now moved sharply in the opposite direction
2012-10-10 16:59:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and looks to be having a heart attack
2012-10-10 17:00:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: moving to higher highs, and just as quickly, moving to lower MCO lows without the benefit of texture
2012-10-10 17:00:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as if we were on a green light to move up above the MCSUM resistance pattern resistance level of +600
2012-10-10 17:01:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and a sudden full stop was then applied
2012-10-10 17:01:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we'll probably see only a move back to the zero line now as both sides take inventory and the sector becomes net neutral between the two sides
2012-10-10 17:02:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see we have nice textural structure in place on the XLE breadth MCO
2012-10-10 17:02:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we were stopped right at the zero line
2012-10-10 17:03:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if the bulls are going to hold here...this would be the time to do so
2012-10-10 17:03:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so look for a bounce attempt tomorrow
2012-10-10 17:03:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and if that occurs
2012-10-10 17:04:03 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you just saw another merchandising technique today in the oils in slamming them lower to accumulate stock, and then just as sharply, move them higher
2012-10-10 17:04:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLF remains bouyant overall
2012-10-10 17:04:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as does the XLF breadth MCO
2012-10-10 17:04:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll take note of that
2012-10-10 17:05:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and according to the 5% component
2012-10-10 17:05:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should bounce higher tomorrow
2012-10-10 17:06:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on what we should refer to as "European Thursday"
2012-10-10 17:06:30 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as this day of the week continues to show good performances by the bulls
2012-10-10 17:06:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: worried of the first three days of the week
2012-10-10 17:06:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then, all of sudden, everything is good with the world again (and Europe)
2012-10-10 17:07:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLV breadth MCO also hit a wall on Friday
2012-10-10 17:07:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that wall was the +1000 level on the XLV breadth MCSUM
2012-10-10 17:08:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: still corrective behavior overall
2012-10-10 17:08:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: boy...what a dump the last couple of days
2012-10-10 17:08:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then we come to the XLI data
2012-10-10 17:08:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which is probably the most interesting and exciting of the sectors
2012-10-10 17:09:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: notice that the XLI breadth MCO did move below its blip support area
2012-10-10 17:09:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but remains in a bottom above bottom configuration
2012-10-10 17:09:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and then when we look at the XLI breadth MCSUM
2012-10-10 17:09:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we see a tight symmetrical triangle at the zero line
2012-10-10 17:10:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this will be the sector that will lead off to any further weakness in the market
2012-10-10 17:10:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or strength for that matter
2012-10-10 17:10:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so keep an eye on it
2012-10-10 17:11:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh...and we have minimal bull divergence there as well with the MCO
2012-10-10 17:12:21 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLB breadth MCO remains constructive
2012-10-10 17:12:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and here too we now have minimal bull divergence
2012-10-10 17:13:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the XLK remains weak internally
2012-10-10 17:13:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but until we break the previous lows in the XLK breadth MCO
2012-10-10 17:13:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we should be able to hold horizontal support at the 30 level
2012-10-10 17:14:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so maybe a bounce there as well near term
2012-10-10 17:14:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: especially since the 10% component is highly "oversold" now at the -200 level
2012-10-10 17:15:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the XLU data continues to look bullish in what is a normal pause to refresh
2012-10-10 17:15:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-10-10 17:15:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: some mixed signals here with the sectors
2012-10-10 17:15:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we're likely in some kind of larger trading range now
2012-10-10 17:15:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the strongest being the utilities and the financials
2012-10-10 17:16:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the key sector though is the industrials
2012-10-10 17:16:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should watch that sector closely on any near term bounce
2012-10-10 17:17:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: looking over the volume MCSUM's
2012-10-10 17:18:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not a lot of money coming out the NYSE CO's
2012-10-10 17:18:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but a bit more in the composite which suggests that interest rate sensitive issues are being sold off here
2012-10-10 17:18:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lots of selling in the NASDAQ
2012-10-10 17:19:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with lower MCO lows
2012-10-10 17:19:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and more importantly
2012-10-10 17:19:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: taking out the divergent lows of June
2012-10-10 17:19:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that pretty much confirms that the NASDAQ is not likely to see higher highs from this juncture in this specific sequence
2012-10-10 17:20:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so now we have to watch for indications for a low being created
2012-10-10 17:20:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: plus with today's lower low in the NASDAQ volume MCO
2012-10-10 17:21:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this was able to push the NASDAQ volume MCSUM below its zero line
2012-10-10 17:21:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so if one was so inclined to short
2012-10-10 17:21:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this would be the marketplace to do so
2012-10-10 17:21:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or at least you would have your best chances of being successful
2012-10-10 17:22:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the NDX volume MCSUM is now below its -250 level
2012-10-10 17:22:32 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so no need to go shopping for longs there
2012-10-10 17:22:46 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and this should keep the pressure on AAPL and GOOG for a while
2012-10-10 17:23:12 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lower lows in the OEX volume MCO
2012-10-10 17:23:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not in the SPX
2012-10-10 17:23:49 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which would suggest that the biggest out flows of capital right now are in the top 100 stocks of the 400 in the SPX
2012-10-10 17:23:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: or...the more higher weighted issues
2012-10-10 17:24:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this is why breadth plurality can remain relatively firm in the face of a 1% decline
2012-10-10 17:24:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as the broader market isn't selling off
2012-10-10 17:24:34 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and THAT is important information
2012-10-10 17:24:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and should be the number 1 reason why one should only hit and run any shorts here
2012-10-10 17:25:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in fact
2012-10-10 17:25:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: since this is WWW
2012-10-10 17:25:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this may all be OEX option related
2012-10-10 17:25:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we know that there has been heavy buying of OEX puts of late
2012-10-10 17:26:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: also the Dow volume MCO moved to lower lows as well
2012-10-10 17:26:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but the MID did not
2012-10-10 17:26:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now we have both breadth and volume on the MID diverging with price
2012-10-10 17:27:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we should probably expect that this basket of stocks is likely to lead in any final exhaustive move we might see over the next couple of weeks
2012-10-10 17:27:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not much selling as well with the SML
2012-10-10 17:27:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're seeing where the selling is being concentrated here
2012-10-10 17:27:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's primarily in the cream stocks
2012-10-10 17:27:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not in the broader market
2012-10-10 17:27:58 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: until the broader market leads lower
2012-10-10 17:28:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we can only work with the idea of the last couple of days as that of a shake out before another attempt by the bulls to move the market higher yet again
2012-10-10 17:28:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they will probably fail, of course, given the weakening inconsistent data
2012-10-10 17:28:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but we can actually see where the selling is being concentrated with such events
2012-10-10 17:29:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: this also tells us that since stocks in the MID are showing better buoyancy here
2012-10-10 17:29:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that they should also fair better on any further price decay that we might see with this same corrective process
2012-10-10 17:29:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: in other words
2012-10-10 17:29:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: holdings that would be deemed part of the MID Caps basket
2012-10-10 17:30:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: should probably be held during this same pause to refresh
2012-10-10 17:30:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and not dumped on any technical rally we might see near term
2012-10-10 17:30:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes..we use stops
2012-10-10 17:30:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but there doesn't seem to be a sense of urgency with this group at this time
2012-10-10 17:31:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if this changes, so will we
2012-10-10 17:31:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM volume MCO also moved to just below its prior lows
2012-10-10 17:31:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and the TM volume MCSUM should be at or below its zero line as soon as tomorrow
2012-10-10 17:31:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so....
2012-10-10 17:31:59 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the bulls are running out of time
2012-10-10 17:32:16 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but they're not completely collapsing as yet
2012-10-10 17:32:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OH...
2012-10-10 17:32:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: just as a fun fact
2012-10-10 17:32:47 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Monday, Tuesday, and today was to be my Las Vegas trade show
2012-10-10 17:32:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2012-10-10 17:33:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: now...usually
2012-10-10 17:33:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the timing of this specific trade show either supports important junctures OR important turns in the trading pattern
2012-10-10 17:33:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so even if I don't do a show in Vegas
2012-10-10 17:33:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and they still keep it on
2012-10-10 17:34:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the Trade Show indicator is again showing its magic
2012-10-10 17:34:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and while we're on the subject
2012-10-10 17:34:45 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I will be doing at least 5 trade shows in the 1st quarter of next year
2012-10-10 17:35:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Vegas will be the 3rd week of March
2012-10-10 17:35:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: always fascinating
2012-10-10 17:35:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...moving on
2012-10-10 17:35:56 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: CVI's are close to being climactic
2012-10-10 17:36:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but not quite there as yet (except for the NDX)
2012-10-10 17:36:14 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: STVO's remain "overbought"
2012-10-10 17:36:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: VTO's remain neutral
2012-10-10 17:36:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and have been for about 2 weeks now
2012-10-10 17:36:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: while the MCO's have made their wild gyrations
2012-10-10 17:37:07 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NYSE TRIN at 1.53
2012-10-10 17:37:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.04
2012-10-10 17:37:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so "oversold", but minimally speaking
2012-10-10 17:37:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: NASDAQ TRIN at 1.61
2012-10-10 17:37:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.06
2012-10-10 17:38:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: TM TRIN at 1.42
2012-10-10 17:38:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Open 10 at 1.09
2012-10-10 17:38:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we'll call that "oversold"
2012-10-10 17:38:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so...
2012-10-10 17:38:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: our near term expectation now is for a technical bounce
2012-10-10 17:39:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how we bounce will pretty much tell us how much more time we have as far as the "tradable top" scenario is likely to work out
2012-10-10 17:39:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: for the bulls
2012-10-10 17:39:35 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: they have a lot of work in front of them just to stabilize things
2012-10-10 17:39:44 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as we now have lower lows in many of the MCO's
2012-10-10 17:40:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and that will keep us from doing anything from rallying in any important way
2012-10-10 17:40:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: overall
2012-10-10 17:40:48 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the market internals have weakened considerably with this latest shake out
2012-10-10 17:41:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: to the point in which many of the cumulative charts have lost their bullish configurations
2012-10-10 17:41:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's orderly at this point
2012-10-10 17:41:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so there's nothing showing any kind of urgency to move out of the market at this time
2012-10-10 17:41:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: so we're back to being defensive
2012-10-10 17:42:10 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but only selling on any rally in which a position doesn't move in kind
2012-10-10 17:42:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: with hard stops in place and going to cash until we get more information
2012-10-10 17:42:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else?
2012-10-10 17:42:36 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: Could you give me a real quick chart take on a stock I'm considering for an earnings play on Tuesday?
2012-10-10 17:42:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: of course...and that would be?
2012-10-10 17:42:55 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ISRG
2012-10-10 17:43:27 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: what the heck was that volume spike?
2012-10-10 17:44:04 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: not sure
2012-10-10 17:44:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: overall the pattern is constructive
2012-10-10 17:44:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: we have an higher RSI on this latest rally
2012-10-10 17:44:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not quite a bullish configuration
2012-10-10 17:44:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but it's bucking the last couple of days of action
2012-10-10 17:44:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: you thinking options?
2012-10-10 17:44:59 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2012-10-10 17:45:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Strike?
2012-10-10 17:45:25 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: far out, I think the coming move on earnings is LARGE
2012-10-10 17:45:33 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would go in the money
2012-10-10 17:45:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe the 15's
2012-10-10 17:45:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: January
2012-10-10 17:45:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: even better...
2012-10-10 17:46:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe they have 12.50's?
2012-10-10 17:46:08 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but 15 would be the play
2012-10-10 17:46:35 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: ISRG?
2012-10-10 17:46:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: as you have both the 20 and 200 day EMA's providing support
2012-10-10 17:46:42 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2012-10-10 17:46:51 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: trading at 15.63?
2012-10-10 17:47:14 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: 494
2012-10-10 17:47:15 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if it's going to make a big move
2012-10-10 17:47:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 494?
2012-10-10 17:47:24 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2012-10-10 17:47:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: the price?
2012-10-10 17:47:47 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yes
2012-10-10 17:47:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: not on my chart
2012-10-10 17:48:05 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: intuitive surgical
2012-10-10 17:48:09 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: yes
2012-10-10 17:48:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: 15.63
2012-10-10 17:48:20 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: maybe a split?
2012-10-10 17:48:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be some split
2012-10-10 17:48:31 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2012-10-10 17:48:45 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: LOL
2012-10-10 17:48:55 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: ha
2012-10-10 17:49:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Yahoo has it at 494
2012-10-10 17:49:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: don't know
2012-10-10 17:49:16 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep, 494
2012-10-10 17:49:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and down 50
2012-10-10 17:49:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: Stockcharts has it up today
2012-10-10 17:49:37 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: oh
2012-10-10 17:49:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: hold it
2012-10-10 17:49:41 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: my fault
2012-10-10 17:49:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: one moment
2012-10-10 17:50:00 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: had the time parameters set at 2003 when I was looking for the 6/6 top mentioned earlier!
2012-10-10 17:50:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: lol
2012-10-10 17:50:04 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK
2012-10-10 17:50:24 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: wow...that's quite a run then
2012-10-10 17:50:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: trading at 15 in 2003
2012-10-10 17:50:31 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: wish I bought it then...
2012-10-10 17:50:36 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and now near 500?!?!
2012-10-10 17:51:13 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anyway, the stock is dead neutral right now
2012-10-10 17:51:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I wouldn't touch it
2012-10-10 17:51:28 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but don't let that stop you
2012-10-10 17:51:40 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: much of option playing comes with the hunch
2012-10-10 17:51:43 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: I know it's tough.. but SO juicy, LOL
2012-10-10 17:51:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: but no trend
2012-10-10 17:51:55 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: nope
2012-10-10 17:52:06 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: it's absolutely flat lined
2012-10-10 17:52:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: which means
2012-10-10 17:52:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that it's going to have a big move
2012-10-10 17:52:29 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: yep!
2012-10-10 17:52:43 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: if I were playing it
2012-10-10 17:52:53 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: on the call side...I would wait for a break above 520
2012-10-10 17:52:57 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: puts...480
2012-10-10 17:53:18 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm sure there are better plays though
2012-10-10 17:53:22 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat:
2012-10-10 17:53:29 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: anything else from anyone?
2012-10-10 17:53:44 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: cool, thx-I'm considering a distant box, I think it would pay-no big investment or anything
2012-10-10 17:54:25 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I would patient...it's as indecisive as you can get
2012-10-10 17:54:38 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: sell a call?
2012-10-10 17:54:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: buy the stock and sell a covered call?
2012-10-10 17:54:54 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: possible
2012-10-10 17:55:02 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: that would be the best play
2012-10-10 17:55:07 [Message] thespookyone -> Chat: thx
2012-10-10 17:55:23 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: only draw back on that
2012-10-10 17:55:26 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: no dividend
2012-10-10 17:55:50 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: how come a company in the medical field at $500 has no dividend?
2012-10-10 17:55:52 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: strange
2012-10-10 17:56:01 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: OK...with that
2012-10-10 17:56:05 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: I'm going to take off
2012-10-10 17:56:11 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: everyone have a great evening
2012-10-10 17:56:17 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: and we'll meet up again on Thursday
2012-10-10 17:56:19 [Message] fib_1618 -> Chat: good night

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