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Whipsaw101

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Posts: 46
Reply with quote  #1 
I'm a rookie at this, but $CDN Wave Count looks pretty Textbook and I think mirrors Gold Counts etc,  I'm not good at labelling the minute stuff but in simple terms looks like a wave 4 pullback with support at 92.5 (TL and Price) and a max downside at 85 (Wave 4 of lesser degree?)

Any comments or suggestions welcome,  a pullback here could coincide with an IT correction in Commodities and a Countertrend Rally in USD



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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #2 
Hi Chris

There's a couple of difficulties with your count consideration. The first thing is that your third wave extension has the center point of 3 as your shortest wave and you have (as minimal as it is) overlap between waves 2 and 4 within this same extension both of which are critical no-no rules with the methodology.

Something in which I've found useful when attempting to apply an Elliott count to a currency is that a monthly scale can sometimes give better insight because of the trading nature of the market itself. With this in mind, and using a 8 period RSI, I've quickly marked up the chart below that would be more in line with the rules of Elliott...especially when we do consider that several Canadian commodity related markets that still have some upside still left in them based on the price pattern of gold itself over the last several months/years.

What do you think?

Fib




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Whipsaw101

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Reply with quote  #3 
Dave,  many thanks........I know that there are many Elliott rules to apply and also that there are exceptions and several possible counts at any given time....thats why I greatly appreciate your input.

I do like the idea of using Monthly and RSI....helps simplify for people like me

If I understand your count, we are in wave 4 of Primary 3  suggesting alot more upside particularly if we get a 5th wave extension. 

With my count, I was trying to synchronize $CDN with GOLD, and I thought we are currently in Primary 4 in Gold, maybe I should be looking at long term counts in wheat and Crude........I also thought that the run to $1.10 on the dailies had all of the melt up characteristics of a 5th of a Primary 3.(but I guess it could also apply to a 3 of 3 wave?)

Leaving TA aside for a sec, a $CDN at say $1.20 implies a horribly weak USD, and either a booming CDn economy with a significant Interest rate premium over the US and or a horribly weak US Economy that forces the Fed to make many more cuts or both.

Interesting stuff.

Thanks

CW

So far Bank of Canada aggressive in cutting rates as they know that we have significant exposure to weak US Economy


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