All donations go towards web site maintenance for all of Technical Watch,
keep it free of charge, and may be tax deductable as an investment expense.


PayPal Verified
Join our market chat sessions every Tuesday and Thursday at 4:00 pm Pacific time!
More information on subscriber services can be found at
http://www.technicalwatch.com/subs.htm




Support Technical Watch!
Buy from our Book Store!
Register Calendar Latest Topics
 
 
 


Reply
  Author   Comment  
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,533
Reply with quote  #1 
Wow...sorry about that...too many windows open, and I erased Andreas' question in error. He was asking about how important Monday's NYMO and NAMO readings moving back above the "red line of resistance" was on the cumulative charts.

Quote:
does this mean anything?

It basically means that the center point of 3 down is now complete and the immense pressure build up of this same price structure was released today during wave 4. The next, and most important target, is the declining tops line on the MCO charts marked in green on the cumulative charts, but the "red line" will again come into play before this whole price pattern sequence is completed.

It should also be noted that Monday's rally took place once the SPX cash index closed last Friday at the first downside price objective from the measuring gap at 899, with today's mind blowing advance retracing exactly 38.2% of this total 3rd wave structure from the mid September highs.

In answering your question from Mark's board, I'm not able to post live cumulative charts on Technical Watch. However, if you're a subscriber to Stock Charts, these are the direct links to these charts in which you can bookmark and review at your leisure (hopefully - sometimes it's a little tricky - you might have to copy and past the links, after you click those below, into StockCharts before you see them):

NYAD - http://tinyurl.com/4bn56k
NYUD - http://tinyurl.com/3ojbmm
NAAD - http://tinyurl.com/4g7mvl
NAUD - http://tinyurl.com/3u5hsz

If the links don't work, you'll have to wait (like I do) for the weekends, or when the occasional review presents itself in the chat room.

Best
Fib




__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

0
geosing

TW Member
Registered:
Posts: 356
Reply with quote  #2 
Quote:

It basically means that the center point of 3 down is now complete and the immense pressure build up of this same price structure was released today during wave 4.



If we are in Wave 4, then, are you saying that Wave 3 (starting from 1265 which gave you the target) is now complete? ES already tagged 1050 (almost 50% retracement). Could very well open at the 50% level tomorrow.

Or do you mean that the center point is now confirmed? Perhaps you mean that the move from the center point is complete.... Can you clarify? Would a close at 851 signify completion of Wave 5 (although S&P has taken out this level intraday)

Does today's breadth plurality count for anything (Other than relieving the pressure)?

Geo
0
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,533
Reply with quote  #3 
Quote:
If we are in Wave 4, then, are you saying that Wave 3 (starting from 1265 which gave you the target) is now complete?

Wave iii of 3 of (3) would now be complete, with the fourth wave .382 target of around 1002 (iv of 3 of (3)) taken from the Wave ii top shown on the quickly put together labeled chart shown below.

Quote:
Would a close at 851 signify completion of Wave 5 (although S&P has taken out this level intraday)

It could on a closing basis, but remember that the price targets shared last Tuesday (899, 851, 724, 588) were based on the approximate measuring gap distance using the NASDAQ and NDX as a guide only. How this may all fit in a with other measuring techniques is something I haven't looked into.

Quote:
Does today's breadth plurality count for anything?

Sure, it was a nice equal and opposite compression relief rally after the market showed several highly negative plurality days. How we close tomorrow will be another story, with the cash SPX probably running out of any steam it may have at the open near the 1070 level.

We can talk more about it in the chat tomorrow if there's still any further questions, but hopefully my responses, with the count shown, helps clear things up (at least partially ).

Fib





__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

0
relax

TW Patron
Registered:
Posts: 38
Reply with quote  #4 
thanks for the comments!

I think things are very clear at the moment!

But another thing is trading it ;-)
0
geosing

TW Member
Registered:
Posts: 356
Reply with quote  #5 
Thank you, fib, for taking the time to explain.

I presume that Wave v is now in progress to be followed by a rally printing Wave 4 (1 degree higher) and then comes 5 taking out the low of Wave v. Cannot imagine where (3) is going to end at this point, your various targets notwithstanding. The count looks good. Perhaps you can keep this chart updated somewhere. Very educational.

Incredible daily ranges....1000 point moves have taken the place of triple digit moves in the dow, with Globex sessions doing 200-300 point range!

Thanks for everything.

Geo
0
relax

TW Patron
Registered:
Posts: 38
Reply with quote  #6 
fib,
we now have higher highs in nymo and namo

does this not indicate that we should be breaking the highs from tuesday (spx 1044)

seems quite bullish, other internals are also rolling over

but we need that fifth wave, hmmm

maybe it will be a quick one on monday or tuesday


0
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,533
Reply with quote  #7 
Quote:
does this not indicate that we should be breaking the highs from tuesday (spx 1044)

Not as yet...we still have both horizontal and negative lines of influence still controlling the current patterns. At this stage, we're still working off the compression created by last weeks high negative plurality numbers on the A/D line, and where we still have a ways to go before we can call the market "recovered".

Fib


__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

0
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,533
Reply with quote  #8 
Based on the symmetrical triangle idea we've been playing with in the chat room, the intraday charts now have the preferred symmetry one would look for in such a pattern.

Looking at the hourly chart, the key price area that needs to hold on the cash SPX would be at the 10/14, 15:00 price highs, of 998. Looking further at the 5 minute intraday action, the approximate Fibonacci objective, that being .618 times the price move from Thursday's 10:00 lows to the 15:00 highs, would be at the 983 cash level. So any move above this level, on this time period basis, would call this Minute wave 4 triangle idea into question.

I hope this quick follow up post helps in charting this ongoing forecast.

Fib

P.S. - A reminder that the numbers given are based on a 1 ma, close only basis for the referenced time periods.


__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

0
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,533
Reply with quote  #9 
OK...top tick so far was at 13:40 at 982, and I'm showing a new sell signal being generated at 14:25...the first since 14:35 yesterday. If this little "c" wave is complete, and if we're now in wave "d" of this same triangle, we should break below the 940 level (cash) fairly soon.

Let's see how the rest of the day goes.

Fib


__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

0
Eminimee

TW Member
Registered:
Posts: 162
Reply with quote  #10 

Fib...could you show a chart with your triangle idea...if it's what I think...there is no 3 wave moves..this counts better...as far as I'm concerned....we are either in a C or  a 3 up..


0
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,533
Reply with quote  #11 
Quote:
could you show a chart with your triangle idea?

Howdy stranger!

Hope all is well with you and yours!

OK...keep in mind that I quickly marked up the chart below (so exact placement may be off a bit) based on both structure of the consolidation, as well as, the Hist MACD. Wave {b} could be counted in two ways, but this seems to have the best cohesive fit in relation to the A/D line. Breaking it down to a 5 minute time frame will provide a better viewpoint of the divergences of the hourly structure.

Whatcha think?

Fib




__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

0
Eminimee

TW Member
Registered:
Posts: 162
Reply with quote  #12 
Well..not a fan...but let's go with it...why do you have the "d" wave objective above the the TL?.."d" in my books has to go to the bottom of the triangle...."e" can cut it short...and usually does...but not "d"
....have to admit...not fond of how you are getting 3 wave moves...but beauty is in the eye of the beholder....
..doing very well...thanks for asking....hope you and yours are doing the same..
0
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,533
Reply with quote  #13 
Quote:
not fond of how you are getting 3 wave moves

Well, blame it on the market, but on close examination of the 5 minute time frame, it will make some sense - especially in relation to the beautiful Fibonacci relationships.

The {d} wave placement is based on a simple .618 retracement, but based on what's come before, and your reference of a 4th touch, it's very possible.

I also like the pattern because of the backdrop of events accompanying each segment, with the wave {c} rally coming on the back of GOOG and IBM earnings, no less, the Buffet story of buying when fear is present. Classic stuff.

Fib




__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

0
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,533
Reply with quote  #14 
Hourly chart updated through Wednesday's open.

Fib




__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

0
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,533
Reply with quote  #15 
The minimal downside expectation of wave {d} is now complete at 14:00.

The 5 minute chart allows for one more move down within this upcoming hour and then wave {e} should begin the final 3 wave structure higher to finish out the triangle. The approximate Fibonacci price target for wave {e} should be around the 955 cash level as of this writing...the same level of where we started out todays session.

Fib




__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

0
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,533
Reply with quote  #16 
Ah Oh...support levels are being broken here, something else might be going on.

Let's see if we can rally into the close to hold the pattern, but the smaller time scales are beginning to look very impulsive.

Fib


__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

0
fib_1618

Moderator
Registered:
Posts: 4,533
Reply with quote  #17 
Thursday's first hour chart showing yesterdays break of the rising bottoms line that was controlling the triangle pattern previously (now in broken teal), and the readjusted line using Wednesday's low as a basis. The dashed gray line represents the line of support for the consolidation pattern - whether that of a triangle or not - where a break below this level would call this same consolidation period complete.

On a technical basis, a snapback to what was the previous line of support is now indicated, and if we unwind in three distinct movements (or waves) from this mornings lows with this expectation, this would then complete the guidelines of a simple Elliott triangle.

Of special note this morning, when interviewed by CNBC, Art Cashin did make an quick comment of this pattern in his analysis, and if others are trading off the same thing, sometimes these things don't work out as majority think it might.

We'll see how it goes.

Fib




__________________
Dave's LinkedIn Profile

Technical Watch Twitter Page

Technical Watch Facebook Page

"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

0
Previous Topic | Next Topic
Print
Reply

Quick Navigation:

Easily create a Forum Website with Website Toolbox.






Copyright 2000-2017 Technical Watch