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mortiz

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Reply with quote  #1 

The official numbers are not in yet for Tuesday 8-15-06, but many indices including NASDAQ, Russell 3000, and several less broadly based indices easily exceeded the 9:1 up-to-down volume ratio.... the NYSE did not.

 

Walmart, Exxon, and Sprint were the primary issues responsible for the NYSE 9:1 UD volume ratio miss.  If those three alone would have advanced, or even closed unchanged, yet another 9:1 day would have been met.

 

FWIW

 

Randy

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ken29

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Reply with quote  #2 
The last 3 times we had 9:1 were 7/19, 6/29 and 6/15........all 3 of them were good days to go short
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GarySmith

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Reply with quote  #3 

Quote:
Originally Posted by ken29
The last 3 times we had 9:1 were 7/19, 6/29 and 6/15........all 3 of them were good days to go short

 

I guess that depends upon one's trading time frame.  Had you gone long on each of the above signals in the SP500 you would be ahead a cumulative 68 points with all three signals profitable as of today's close.

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jmicou

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Reply with quote  #4 
On June 12th, the total down to total up volume was greater than 9:1. Two trading days later, the lowest low on the $WLSH was registered. The trading day following that low was the first 9:1 total up to total volume down day. Although there were pullbacks, the lows were higher lows subsequently. Today registered the third 9:1 total up to total volume down day. Pullbacks and seasonality aside, it would appear that this is significant for the bullish case.

regards,
jmicou

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ken29

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Reply with quote  #5 
I think a 9:1 after a decline is bullish, don't think this one is......
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ken29

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Reply with quote  #6 
I could be wrong, but I think in the old days a 9:1 is a true reflection of market sentiment.........today, its nothing more than a one sided mechanical program trading
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wyocowboy

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Reply with quote  #7 

  FWIW, Exxon is in an uptrend, but it needs to pull back and test support at around $65 - it was overbought on an RSI basis - which almost always leads to a pullback...( it is a stock that I trade fairly frequently - but not on a daytrading basis).

   As for the computer trading - human beings write those programs, and the input reflects all their own strengths and shortcomings - but executed on a faster basis.

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jmicou

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Reply with quote  #8 
Quote:
Originally Posted by ken29
I think a 9:1 after a decline is bullish, don't think this one is......

The set up seems to be more of the bullish upthrust variety (see highlighted Decision Point chart).
regards,
jmicou

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mortiz

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Reply with quote  #9 

Following Tuesday's action, several MCOs were right at their controlling resistance trendlines, some, particularly volume MCOs for a few indices, had nominally broken through resistance Tuesday.

 

The MCO lines in the sand for today (Wednesday, 8-16-06), the net advances (breath and volume) are the following for the NYSE composite and NASDAQ:

 

NYSE Breadth: +381 advances

 

NYSE Volume: +101,576 net up volume (in 1000s)

 

NASDAQ Breadth: +31 advances

 

NASDAQ Volume: +276,136 net up volume (in 1000s)

 

The above numbers are needed for the respective oscillators to remain unchanged.  For the MCOs to move higher (above resistance), the net advances (breadth or volume) would need to exceed those numbers.

 

For the NYSE, the oscillator unchanged values can be found at this McClellan website link:

 

http://www.mcoscillator.com/Data.html

 

Now, it will be interesting to see if there is some upside follow through for a change.

 

FWIW

 

Randy

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ken29

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Reply with quote  #10 
I think one more up day today and its time to short the NQ tomorrow morning......I think friday is a sure down day, unless the down day comes on thurs
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stickan

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Reply with quote  #11 

 

"most dangerous words in the investment vocabulary... "it's different this time"

 

Ok so let's see what happend last time in a similar situation, which was nov 2005.

This time we can add break out above a bearflagg with a breakaway gap.

 

 

 

 

 

 

But what is really interesting, is what happend in the rest of the world (well, Europe...).

At precicely 8.30 EST when the PPI report was released ALL markets took off att exactly the same time.

Usually the European markets wait and see what will happen in NYC.

Not this time - the markets have been waiting for an excuse to rally, and the PPI was that excuse. Do we have an up-crash in the making? - perhaps. Presumably many people on the sidelines, waiting to get in on the pullback that may "never" come.

Sorry for the large picture - as usual the charts are the interesting part.

 

 

 

The day after the PPI, on Wednesday, below - same thing!

8.30 - wham!

 

 

What is also interesting is the way the way the markets have reacted to each other lately (before Tuesday).

 

Before Tuesday when was Europe  was up - US came down.

When US was up Europe went down.

 

Now both are up and Sweden, Germany and Denmark which I follow have all broken the neckline of an inverted H&S pattern. So for once we are doing this all together.

 

Just look at DAX for instance:5700 is a mix of resistance

Fib 50% Retracement

2 Andrews pitchfork's median lines

Neckline of inverted H&S

Falling trendline

Fib time cycle

And we cut through like butter

5700 is now support - solid!

regrds

stig

 

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