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hiker

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Posts: 8,859
Reply with quote  #1 
as of the August 29th close, I am wondering what conclusions you have about the
future probable price outcome for the S&P 500 that is likely to result from the
current negative divergences shown below for:

1. the breadth A-D lines and
2. the volume A-D lines

* negative divergences vs. the higher high price pattern by the S&P 500 index achieved in August 2014

comments by anyone are appreciated, and most charts shown below present the breadth A-D line and the Volume A-D line
... I would love to know if you expect these negative divergences to actually disappear in the coming weeks, and why that
is the likely probable outcome

1. S&P1500 breadth A-D line remains below its July 2014 high while the S&P1500 price action
is now briefly leading the breadth A-D line by price achieving a slightly higher high already ..
this is often a problem for the medium-term bullish case when price briefly leads the breadth A-D pattern configuration


S&P1500 A-D percent - August 29, 2014 - the breadth A-D line is negatively divergent vs. the higher price highs by S&P1500 and SPY price action this week.png 

for the S&P1500 price action:  5 consecutive days have closed slightly above the $460.50 early July intraday high,
while the New Highs-New Low Percent display an absence of an upward thrust to levels seen during the October 2013
through early July 2014 period

S&P1500 new highs-new lows percent line - August 29, 2014.png 


2. Total Market WLSH 5000 - the breadth A-D line remains below its July high

WLSH 5000 daily with A-D lines - August 29, 2014.png 

3. the NYSE Composite index:

* Common stocks only data set for the NYSE - both the breadth A-D line and the volume A-D line remain below their July high

* the NYSE Composite index price action now remains slightly below its several July highs ...
the recent price rejection event in the vicinity of the lower July price high has significance

(additional note for which there is no visible chart shown below:
the NYSE all issues volume A-D line has just now reached the July high for one day ... during the recent 15 trading days:
11 days posted a net positive volume A-D and 4 days posted a net negative volume A-D which far surpasses the 2014 57% by 43% weekly average for
this NYSE internal when only counting green or red net volume days)

NYSE Composite index daily with breadth A-D and volume A-D for the NYSE common stocks only version - August 29, 2014 - these internals and the NYSE price action negatively diverge from the SPX A-D line higher highs pattern.png 

4. Dow Jones Industrial Average index:

* the volume A-D line remains below its July high

* the DJIA price action now remains 53 points below its July high, and the recent one-day
attempt to break above was rejected

INDU daily with breadth A-D and volume A-D lines - August 29, 2014 - Volume A-D line and the INDU price action remaining below its July high is negatively divergent vs. the higher highs SPY price action.png 

================================================

for context, the S&P500 index price action daily chart is shown below with
its breadth A-D line and its volume A-D line displaying new highs above the July
2014 highs for all three chart elements

S&P 500 index daily with 50,2 Bollinger Bands and with A-D breadth & volume plurality - August 29, 2014 - new highs this week for all metrics except the 65,2 %B.png


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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #2 
Quote:
as of the August 29th close, I am wondering what conclusions you have about the
future probable price outcome for the S&P 500 that is likely to result from the
current negative divergences

Much of the problem with the S&P 1500 and Wilshire 5000 lies with the S&P 600 Small Cap Index (SML) and those NASDAQ stocks that make up this same index as all of the other major market indices are currently at new all time highs as of the 29th (including the NDX and the MID).

But the bottom line to this kind of analysis is in knowing what the interest rate sensitive issues are doing with this same breadth divergence. As of this past weekend, the NYSE Bond CEF, NYSE Specialty CEF, and NYSE Preferred stock A/D lines were at all time highs...the NYSE REIT A/D line only 33 net advancing issues from these same historic highs. So as long as these measures of liquidity continue to be buoyant (especially the Bonds), this promises us that we will see new price highs in the equity markets in the not too distant future...and money flow into the SML and NASDAQ will either rise with the rest of the ships in the marina or will lead the market lower once these same rate sensitive gauges see divergent tops of their own.

Fib

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hiker

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Posts: 8,859
Reply with quote  #3 

hi Dave, and your detailed reply is much appreciated ... your vigilance data
items are clearly stated.

for future look-back reference - daily charts of the SML and MID as of the Friday August 29th close are shown below:

* SML daily chart with the breadth A-D and the volume A-D lines - the August highs for the A-D lines are marked with red horizontal lines

SML daily with the breadth A-D and the volume A-D lines - August 29, 2014 - the August highs for the A-D lines are marked with red horizontal lines.png 

MID daily chart with the breadth A-D and the Volume A-D lines - August 29, 2014


MID daily with the breadth A-D and the Volume A-D lines - August 29, 2014.png 



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hiker

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Reply with quote  #4 
September 4, 2014 closing update, ahead of Friday's NFP release:

S&P1500 July & early September 2014 double tap at a similar high level by its A-D line ...compression remains underway, so
let's place near-term upward or downward price bets and see who has the most hardy party

* S&P1500 daily A-D line - September 4, 2014 -now a double tap of the 2014 A-D line high is in place:

S&P1500 A-D percent - September 4, 2014 -now a double tap of the 2014 A-D line high is in place.png 

=====================================================================

A-D lines and price action both compressing since last week, with this S&P500 price result today:

note - ignore the volume column because it represents partial daily #'s



Symbolcurrent Pricetoday's Changetoday's VolumePEEPS52 Week High% change since Aug 29, 2014ClosePrice ChangeOpenHighLowVolume
# of Advancers
# of Decliners# Unch
SPY200.22-0.14%20,645,9066.1332.68201.58-0.24%200.22-0.28200.86201.58199.6620,645,906010
XLK40.05-0.05%991,23635.351.1340.44-0.57%40.05-0.0240.2040.3339.94991,236010
XLF23.430.09%6,065,7686.153.8123.580.30%23.430.0223.4323.5823.366,065,768100
XLV63.80-0.5%1,338,0815.8510.9164.42-0.09%63.80-0.3264.2664.4263.671,338,081010
XLY69.030.38%862,5896.6810.3369.320.31%69.030.2668.8769.3268.87862,589100
XLI54.150.04%1,427,8465.99.1855.820.24%54.150.0254.2354.5454.051,427,846100
XLE96.43-1.35%2,312,9019.410.25101.52-2.34%96.43-1.3297.9898.0295.982,312,901010
XLP45.320.31%1,183,35211.034.1145.710.42%45.320.1445.2545.4445.201,183,352100
XLB50.440%1,073,6906.757.4850.75-0.18%50.440.0050.4850.7550.331,073,690001
XLU43.08-0.05%1,499,33311.533.7444.36-0.46%43.08-0.0242.9643.1942.851,499,333010
XTL57.10-0.49%100#N/A#N/A60.850.14%57.10-0.2857.1057.1057.10100010
                 
              461





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hiker

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Reply with quote  #5 
September 5, 2014 closing update -- the US index and SP500 sector A-D lines and price action have been compressing since last week,
with this S&P500 price result today and the percentage change since August 29th also shown:

please ignore the volume column, which is partial data

* symbols for the S&P 500 Spyders are sorted by the size of % weighting within the S&P 500,
and obviously XLK Info. Technology and XLF Financials are by far the largest two weighted sectors

I have noted in shaded color those Spyders achieving new 52-week intraday price highs on or since August 29th

** NOTE - just like with horizontal price basing patterns, the more lengthy is the period of time when A-D and price action together are simultaneously compressing, the more sustainable during the future period of time is the subsequent price and A-D outcome which the market participants directionally choose, and this is a well documented fact known to professional market technicians

ten sector Spyders sorted by the % weighting -- daily % price change and % change since August 29, 2014    today's ClosePrice ChangeOpenHighLow
 Symbolcurrent Pricetoday's Changetoday's VolumePEEPS52 Week High% change since Aug 29, 2014ClosePrice ChangeOpenHighLow
 SPY201.110.44%24,636,3296.1532.68201.580.20%201.110.89200.19201.19199.41
 XLK40.290.6%1,405,61835.561.1340.440.02%40.290.2440.1340.2940.03
 XLF23.460.13%6,217,5636.153.8123.580.43%23.460.0323.4023.4723.26
 XLV64.170.58%1,075,3355.8810.9164.420.49%64.170.3763.8264.1763.17
 XLY69.260.33%641,8726.7110.3369.330.64%69.260.2368.8769.2868.65
 XLI54.330.33%1,769,3045.929.1855.820.57%54.330.1854.1054.3453.87
 XLE97.080.67%1,618,1889.4710.25101.52-1.68%97.080.6596.4897.1095.82
 XLP45.580.57%884,71911.14.1145.711.00%45.580.2645.3545.5845.19
 XLB50.660.44%639,9556.777.4850.760.26%50.660.2250.4050.6750.28
 XLU43.621.25%1,222,65511.673.7444.360.79%43.620.5443.2343.6443.13
 XTL57.400.53%250#N/A#N/A60.850.67%57.400.3057.4057.4057.40

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hiker

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Posts: 8,859
Reply with quote  #6 
top 10 weighted components of the XLK, Info. Technology spyder:

September 5, 2014 close



XLK - daily % price change and % change since August 29, 2014    today's ClosePrice ChangeOpenHighLow
 Symbolcurrent Pricetoday's Changetoday's VolumePEEPS52 Week High% change since Aug 29, 2014ClosePrice ChangeOpenHighLow
 AAPL98.970.87%58,457,03515.986.19103.74-3.44%98.970.8598.8099.3998.31
 MSFT45.911.44%36,939,36017.452.6345.931.06%45.910.6545.1145.9345.11
 VZ49.940.44%11,927,37810.614.7153.660.24%49.940.2249.7350.0349.56
 T35.150.6%17,804,40810.333.437.480.54%35.150.2134.9535.2634.88
 IBM191.200.27%2,261,21512.115.81199.21-0.57%191.200.52190.53191.75190.09
 GOOGL597.780.78%1,799,85530.319.73615.422.65%597.784.64595.13598.50593.55
 GOOG586.080.7%1,629,47729.7119.73604.832.53%586.084.10583.98586.55581.95
 INTC35.000.27%20,842,22017.362.0235.200.23%35.000.1034.9235.1234.83
 ORCL41.27-0.67%15,164,00217.282.3943.19-0.63%41.27-0.2841.6141.7641.26
 CSCO25.000.36%19,865,20216.761.4926.080.04%25.000.0924.8625.0724.86

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hiker

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Reply with quote  #7 
top 10 weighted components of the XLF, Financials spyder:

September 5, 2014 close

XLF top 10 holdings - daily % price change & % chg since August 29    today's ClosePrice ChangeOpenHighLow
 Symbolcurrent Pricetoday's Changetoday's VolumePEEPS52 Week High% change since Aug 29, 2014ClosePrice ChangeOpenHighLow
 WFC51.650.16%12,102,46412.754.0553.080.41%51.650.0851.3851.6551.16
 BRK.B138.070.09%3,475,8930.0112860.35138.550.60%138.070.12137.71138.35137.34
 JPM59.910.33%9,600,89415.473.8761.480.77%59.910.259.6259.9159.22
 BAC16.02-0.56%80,974,90125.670.6218.03-0.12%16.02-0.0916.0516.0715.90
 C52.30-0.32%17,488,89417.782.9455.281.26%52.30-0.1752.3152.4951.72
 AXP89.61-0.04%2,575,90717.235.296.240.07%89.61-0.0489.6489.7489.02
 USB42.13-0.26%7,807,56413.913.0343.92-0.35%42.13-0.1142.1242.2241.89
 AIG55.04-0.34%5,863,9029.046.0956.37-1.82%55.04-0.1955.0655.3554.64
 GS179.75-0.18%2,562,81711.5215.6182.070.36%179.75-0.33179.58179.90177.88
 MET55.26-0.29%5,213,43514.13.9257.570.95%55.26-0.1655.1555.3754.75

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hiker

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Reply with quote  #8 
top 10 weighted components of the Nasdaq 100 index:

September 5, 2014 close

INTC's new 52-week high was achieved prior to August 29th, though we are now trading only
slightly below that value

AAPL - the largest percentatge weighted component in SPY and QQQ was hurt badly this week
vs. the August 29th price close, and GILD was also hurt




Nasdaq 100 top 10 holdings -- daily % price change and % change since August 29, 2014    today's ClosePrice ChangeOpenHighLow
 Symbolcurrent Pricetoday's Changetoday's VolumePEEPS52 Week High% change since Aug 29, 2014ClosePrice ChangeOpenHighLow
 AAPL98.970.87%58,457,03515.986.19103.74-3.44%98.970.8598.8099.3998.31
 MSFT45.911.44%36,939,36017.452.6345.931.06%45.910.6545.1145.9345.11
 GOOG586.080.7%1,629,47729.7119.73604.832.53%586.084.10583.98586.55581.95
 INTC35.000.27%20,842,22017.362.0235.200.23%35.000.1034.9235.1234.83
 GOOGL597.780.78%1,799,85530.319.73615.422.65%597.784.64595.13598.50593.55
 FB77.261.72%29,475,85483.920.9277.483.26%77.261.3176.1077.3875.60
 AMZN346.380.12%2,111,220910.210.38408.062.16%346.380.43346.30346.83342.50
 GILD105.36-1.4%36,078,36023.674.45110.64-2.05%105.36-1.50106.40106.5097.54
 CSCO25.000.36%19,865,20216.761.4926.080.04%25.000.0924.8625.0724.86
 QCOM75.810.93%8,472,33118.254.1581.97-0.38%75.810.7075.0075.8574.89



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hiker

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Reply with quote  #9 
top 10 weighted components of the S&P 500 index:

September 5, 2014 close

* JPM remains slightly below its early 2014 dividend-adjusted intraday price high (the 52wk high price value shown below is scraped from a data source which does NOT dividend-adjust the look-back price history)

S&P500 top 10 holdings -- daily % price change and % chg since August 29, 2014    today's ClosePrice ChangeOpenHighLow
 Symbolcurrent Pricetoday's Changetoday's VolumePEEPS52 Week High% change since Aug 29, 2014ClosePrice ChangeOpenHighLow
 AAPL98.970.87%58,457,03515.986.19103.74-3.44%98.970.8598.8099.3998.31
 XOM99.260.92%9,486,57212.647.85104.76-0.20%99.260.9098.7499.3098.11
 MSFT45.911.44%36,939,36017.452.6345.931.06%45.910.6545.1145.9345.11
 JNJ104.420.56%5,750,80319.35.41106.740.67%104.420.58103.92104.42103.34
 GE26.100.54%21,041,61417.861.4628.090.46%26.100.1425.9026.1025.80
 CVX127.400.47%5,038,73012.1610.48135.10-1.58%127.400.60127.15127.44126.16
 WFC51.650.16%12,102,46412.754.0553.080.41%51.650.0851.3851.6551.16
 BRK.B138.070.09%3,475,8930.0112860.35138.550.60%138.070.12137.71138.35137.34
 JPM59.910.33%9,600,89415.473.8761.480.77%59.910.2059.6259.9159.22
 PG83.770.08%5,889,03821.413.9185.820.79%83.770.0783.4483.8083.07

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