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mortiz

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Reply with quote  #1 

Barring a collapse in the final few minutes of trading (Wednesday, 1-24-07) the NYSE ratio-adjusted AD (RA-AD) line record high set in early 1959 has been broken today.

 

It is difficult to discern from this 80+ year chart, but old record has been taken out by at least 150 ratio-adjusted points (official AD data not released until around 7 PM EST).

 

Previous all-time RA-AD highs over the years are located with arrows.  Note the normal price action following new RA-AD line record highs

 

 

FWIW

 

Randy

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Rightfield

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Reply with quote  #2 

I've been waiting with a bated breath for this ...thanks for the update!

 

RF 


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All that happens is symbol, and as it represents itself perfectly, it points to the rest.----GOETHE

Money knows what money likes...and money likes to make more money.---fib_1618

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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #3 
Quite an significant day for the NYSE and for the US stock markets as well.

Elliott wise, this move to new all time highs on the ratio adjusted NYAD changes the current Dow count from being that of Intermediate 3 of Primary 5 to Intermediate wave 3 of Primary 3 to the upside. Dow upside price objectives under such conditions can and will be quite high with probable targets mentioned by such analysts as Don Wolanchuk and Harry Dent a very high probability.

With this also comes the suggestion that the COMPQ and NDX will now fully retrace .618 times the length of the declines seen in the 2000-2002 periods as a minimal expectation.

Thanks Randy for the timeliness of this historic information and the exciting times ahead that it portends.

Fib


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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

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stickan

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Reply with quote  #4 

I don't want to spoil the party, but the 1959 high wasn't that just a tiny bit higher than the 1951 high?

Turning into a failure break.

Why is that not the case now?

The reason I ask is that I am working on something with so many historical coincidences that might indicate a top this week

and IF this high is a repetition of the 51/59 case it would fit into the big picture.

I will try get something togeter this weekend. Probably on FF, since I have problems with posting chart on this forum. although I would prefer to post it here.

we'll see..

Stig

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 a tiny bit h

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stickan

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Reply with quote  #5 

By the way, Randy, could you post the exact date?

stig

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mortiz

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Reply with quote  #6 

Hi Stig,

 

The previous all-time high for the NYSE RA-AD line was printed 3-13-1959.  The 1959 record was nominally higher than the prior all-time high achieved 3-19-1956.  Due the time span of the chart it is difficult to nail down the time frames, but wanted present the entire history.

 

The market apparently has a long memory.  In early December 2006, the RA-AD line finally came within 5000 net raw advances of the 1959 high, then for following 7+ weeks chopped around before nominally setting the record Wednesday.  Thus, it certainly seemed as though the market recognized this was an important cumulative breadth resistance zone.

 

It would not surprise me, if the daily RA-AD line continued to chop around in this zone for awhile, like any resistance, it often has to be "softened up" before a decisive break out.  Currently, the composite NYSE AD line is riding the back of the common stocks, as the preferreds and bond CEFs, comprising 1100 of the issues traded on the NYSE, have been weak.

 

One historical trait of new highs in the AD line, is any ensuing price correction is muted.  When price and the AD line top out at the same time, there has never been a price correction significantly exceeding 10%, as measured by the SPX.  A 10% correction is of sufficient magnitude that one would want to exploit or at least sidestep, but crashes (over 20% declines) have simply not occurred over history immediately following a new high in the AD line.

 

Look forward to your study, and thanks to all for your feedback and comments.

 

FWIW

 

Randy

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doc

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Reply with quote  #7 
Randy,

Based on your post coming on Jan 24, 2007 and the relative location of the $NYAD, I take it that the current decline has brought the RAAD back close to but not below the breakout line from 1959? I know things are very busy right now, so whenever you get the chance. Thanks.

Doc
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fib_1618

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Reply with quote  #8 
Quote:
I take it that the current decline has brought the RAAD back close to but not below the breakout line from 1959?

Thank you for mentioning this Doc - I had the intention of posting this updated chart this past weekend and it skipped my mind.

Fib



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"As for it being different this time, it is different every time. The question is in what way, and to what extent" - Tom McClellan

"An economist is someone who sees something happen, and then wonders if it would work in theory" - Ronald Reagan

"What we see depends mainly on what we look for" - John Lubbock

"The eye sees only what the mind is ready to comprehend" - Henri Bergson

“Answers are easy; it’s asking the right questions which is hard” - Dr. Who - 1977

"You know the very powerful and the very stupid have one thing in common - they don't alter their views to fit the facts, they alter the facts to fit their views (which can be uncomfortable if you happen to be one of the facts that needs altering)" - Dr. Who - 1977

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doc

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Reply with quote  #9 
What, an 8 minute response time to my request? Things sure seem to be slipping over here . In all seriousness, thanks for the chart, Fib.
It's good to look at the big picture every so often.
Let's see if she holds or not.
Doc
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mortiz

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Reply with quote  #10 
Doc/Fib,

Thanks for asking and answering the current configuration status of the NYSE composite RAAD line with respect to its late 50s all time high.  My guess is the bulls will be furiously defending the former RAAD line all time high if and when it is tested going forward.

Hope to be back in gear within a week or so.... moving into a newly built home has taken its toll on any market operations from this corner, kind of the same dilemma Fib is having these days.

Randy

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